Corangamite has covered a shifting area around Colac 150 kilometres west of Melbourne since its creation at federation, its complexion changing somewhat with the absorption of the Geelong suburbs of South Barwon and Belmont in 1955. It was one of Labor’s two gains in Victoria when Kevin Rudd came to power in 2007, giving Labor its first win in the seat since the Great Depression. In its current form the electorate includes the Geelong suburbs south-west of the Barwon River and the Great Ocean Road as far as Apollo Bay, together with rural areas to the west and north. The Geelong suburbs, which include Liberal-leaning Highton and marginal Belmont and Grovedale, contain a little over a third of the electorate’s voters, and are distinguished (along with Torquay) by a younger demographic profile and a preponderance of mortgage payers. Growth in Geelong, Torquay and the Bellarine Peninsula left the seat over quota at the redistribution to take effect at the next election, resulting in the transfer of most of the Bellarine Peninsula (accounting for about 5700 voters) to Corio. This has had a negligible impact on the Labor margin, which on Antony Green’s calculation goes from 0.4% to 0.3%.
Labor’s only wins in Corangamite prior to 2007 were in 1910, when future Prime Minister Jim Scullin became member for a term (he would return as member for the inner Melbourne seat of Yarra in 1922), and at the 1929 election when Scullin’s short-lived government came to power. The Country Party held the seat for one term from 1931, after which it was held by the United Australia Party and then the Liberal Party. The enlargement of parliament in 1984 cost the electorate its most conservative rural territory in the west, but it took another 23 years before Labor was able to realise its hopes of gaining the seat. It was assisted to this end by the “sea change” phenomenon, the ABC TV series of that name having been set in the electorate at Barwon Heads. This has drained about 10% from the Liberal primary vote in the Great Ocean Road towns since the early 1990s, with the Greens vote there burgeoning to 17% at the 2010 election.
Corangamite was held from 1984 to 2007 by Stewart McArthur, who to the dismay of some in the Liberal Party sought another term in 2007 at the age of 70. His Labor challenger was 31-year-old Darren Cheeseman, an official with the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union who won a hotly contested preselection over Peter McMullin, the Right-backed mayor of Geelong and candidate from 2004. Cheeseman went on to overwhelm McArthur’s 5.3% margin with a 6.2% swing that was evenly distributed throughout the electorate. Faced at the 2010 election by a fresh Liberal candidate in Sarah Henderson, a former state host of The 7.30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, Cheeseman was brought within 771 votes of defeat by a 0.4% swing that went slightly against the trend of a 1.0% statewide swing to Labor. Cheeseman went on to receive substantial publicity in February 2012 when he declared Labor would be “decimated” if Julia Gillard led it to the election, which set the ball rolling on Kevin Rudd’s unsuccessful leadership challenge a week later.
Sarah Henderson will again represent the Liberals at the next election after winning a fiercely contested struggle for Liberal preselection against Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and former Peter Costello staffer who also sought preselection in 2010. Henderson’s backers reportedly included Tony Abbott and Michael Kroger, with Nockles having support from Peter Costello, Andrew Robb, Senators Arthur Sinodinos and Scott Ryan and Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer. In the event, Henderson won a surprisingly easy victory with an absolute majority on the first round.
[The ever increasing strident and abusive tenor evident in so many posts from a wider cross section of the Laborite PBers, reflects an ever increasing level of angst in general.
Not good for the blood pressure]
But a lot better than drowning.
The ever increasing strident and abusive tenor evident in so many posts from a wider cross section of the Laborite PBers, reflects an ever increasing level of angst in general.
Not good for the blood pressure PEGUSES WROTE
Neither is bei ng in an u safe boat
muttleymcgee,
[Argumentum ad hominem.]
😆 How many posts have u addressed 2 me specifically and generally to all Greens full of ad hominems.
How many times have i ignored your ‘pleasant’ posts? Today is the day that i call u on your “rude manners” (thanks zoomster :-D) )
Pegasus @ 2406
Thanks for your concern about my blood pressure, but it was just fine when I donated blood last week.
I write more in sorrow than in anger as I have been prepared to give the Greens the benefit of the doubt.
Tut they have proven incapable to make the connection between consequences and their actions and in doing so have forfeited all credibility and right to be viewed as a party of grown-ups.
They are all about feel-good positions and disregard for the consequences.
Abbott’s mates are fed up with the jokes about Whyalla, Carbongeddon and the Carbocalypse that have been running all day on Twitter. They are hopping mad because (a) their idol’s desperate ‘end of the world predictions as we know it’ haven’t come true and (b) because everyone is having a good laugh about that. They’ve turned nasty and are tweeting the usual lines of abuse. I can’t be bothered copying any of it, you can imagine what’s being said, we’ve heard it all too many times already.
These fools really don’t make you want to vote with them at all.
womble @ 2050
Run that past the batch of Chins who arrived recently in anticipation of the Malaysia agreement.
49s Wayne Swan Wayne Swan @SwannyDPM
Our resources are owned by all Australians, so the benefits should flow to all corners of the country, not just to a fortunate few #FairGo
Wayne Swan @SwannyDPM
MRRT gives 2.7 small businesses a tax break, boost to payments for 1.5 families & more retirement savings for 8.4 million working Aussies
Leone, I’ve noticed the same reaction from the Greens, as the realization of the enormity of their stuff up sinks in.
Wayne Swan @SwannyDPM
.@TonyAbbottMHR has said he’ll repeal the MRRT and these benefits for Australians and give a tax cut to Gina and @CliveFPalmer instead
It will be interesting to see how the Greens do in the polls over the next fortnight after the AS bill debate. The Greens were put under political pressure for the first time in a long time with Oakeshott bill in the Senate.
What anecdotal evidence proffered in comments on this website seems to indicate the Greens may have displeased their supporters by rejecting the Oakeshott bill. However this is just anecdotal evidence.
[How many posts have u addressed 2 me specifically and generally to all Greens full of ad hominems.]
None. I have commented freely on the disgusting and pious behaviour of the greens, but I certainly haven’t directed any of it personally towards you.
At no stage have I called you a gutless, pious patronising twerp who would rather hold an enquiry than do anything while people drown.
Nor would I.
Any more takers who are willing to answer my post about the SIEV X drownings?
Why did both major parties believe that an inquiry was not required to uncover the facts – facts that could have led to measures being implemented to prevent subsequent drownings?
Was their lack of support solely due to political considerations with no regard for more loss of life at sea, or were there other justifiable reasons to not hold such an inquiry?
I am interested to know?
Senator X’s description of the Green/Coalition cartel that voted to allow the drownings to continue was interesting – ‘pissants’
Did Mr Barnett miss the point that Australian Businesses can buy these European permits? Stupid fool.
Pegasus, get out of the pond.
You’re drowning.
The Greens have done what Tony Abbott and the MSM couldn’t.
United the Labor Party.
zoidlord
[Wayne Swan @SwannyDPM
.@TonyAbbottMHR has said he’ll repeal the MRRT and these benefits for Australians and give a tax cut to Gina and @CliveFPalmer instead]
I’m starting to think that Swanny really is a class war warrior. Not that that is a bad thing. We need them as ……….
[Warren Buffett On Class Warfare: ‘If This Is A War, My Side Has The Nuclear Bomb’]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/26/warren-buffett-my-side-nuclear-bomb-tax-code_n_1234500.html
Bemused, best of luck to the Chins – best result would be if they are able to return to Burma if things continue to improve like they appear to be – if not, we should welcome them here with open arms
very unlikely those that get on boats will get in line and wait patiently behind them though
Carbon tax wasn’t even the first story on Adelaide 7 news.
Instead it was a story about a 25 year old cold case murder.
[Run that past the batch of Chins…]
As I posted previously in response to HSO about the warm welcome that the Chins received in the local community (no response to date):
——————————
Pegasus
Posted Saturday, June 23, 2012 at 9:36 pm | Permalink
Re the Chins….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8626008.stm
[The Chin are mainly Christians, having converted to the faith when the British ruled the area before independence after World War II.
The persecution of the Chin dates back to the military takeover of Burma in the 1960s.
According to the US State Department, Burmese troops and officials have tried to forcibly convert the Chin from Christianity to Buddhism.
They have also destroyed churches, and arrested and even killed Christian Chin clergy, who now often work undercover.]
If the Chins were muslim and wore traditional clothing would the same level of support, acceptance and tolerance be shown by the surrounding community?
————————————————-
If the group had been black muslim Sudanese do u think they would have been warmly received…..?
FS and Rossmore,
I understand your reluctance to answer my questions 😉
bemused
[I write more in sorrow than in anger as I have been prepared to give the Greens the benefit of the doubt.]
Would you have felt the same if the Greens had voted for Nauru?
rossmore
[United the Labor Party.]
😆 U have a wonderful sense of humour.
Don’t shed tears but I am departing until next I return 😉
Just fired this off to the ABC:
I will send copies to the Chairman (if I can get his email address) and the Minister.
I will fire off something similar to SBS.
Yes, young Peg, you may leave the room.
Pegasus said
[Actually there are many less well off people who can not afford to buy a car, so petrol costs are irrelevant.]
Just as well hey, you loonies would try to find a way to get them off the road to protect the stupid environment wouldn’t you?
Pegasus there was an excellent post on here a couple of days ago explaining why there wasn’t a Royal Commission on SIEV X. The small matter of jurisdiction was one of the reasons.
Pegasus @ 2063
I believe there should be a Royal Commission or other inquiry.
I believe the same about the AWB scandal.
Satisfied?
[Don’t shed tears but I am departing until next I return ]
Don’t forget your PFD.
BH,
Deed done.
For other ActewAGL customers, the relevant e-mail addresses are
ayesha.razzaq@actewagl.com.au
and
greg.combet.mp@aph.gov.au
There should be a Quarterly Newspoll due soon
womble @ 2069
They have been welcomed and are settling in. Some others may end up returning to Burma.
So where does their greater entitlement come from?
What this party or that party did in the past about ASers is NA to the current crisis.
It is what is currently happening that is the issue.
The Greens and the Abbotteers have to wear the caps, because they fit, now.
Womble:
[simple question – assume Malaysia opens and works exactly like planned, boats stop coming to Australia as they don’t want to be sent there
what do the asylum seekers do???
unfortunately for some here I think the answer is – who cares, they aren’t our problem then 🙁 ]
simple question – assume Malaysia doesn’t get off the ground.
what happens to the 4000 refugees there that would have come to Australia under the scheme???
unfortunately for some here I think the answer is – who cares, they aren’t our problem then 🙁
will send copies to the Chairman (if I can get his email address) and the Minister.
BEMUSED
I had to use slow mail.
Ifoun d tbe names of directors and chairman on the abc site
Pegasus
[If the Chins were muslim and wore traditional clothing would the same level of support, acceptance and tolerance be shown by the surrounding community? If the group had been black muslim Sudanese do u think they would have been warmly received…..?]
Damn right but after last week you and your party have ended up in the same predicament as this horse. The same ending ? Maybe not.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jv36Xs9IWDg
http://www.abc.net.au/corp/board/board_members.htm
Names are listed
MTBW @ 2073
Probably more so.
Nauru, as we all know, served as a stepping stone to Australia so was no deterrent to dangerous voyages and in fact relied upon them.
Q Board members can be contacted through the ABC Secretariat, GPO Box 9994, Sydney NSW 2001, telephone (02) 8333 5312, or email: board@your.abc.net.au
Found it we should book mark this
Womble:
What on earth are you talking about? We’ll still take in refugees. We’re not going to lower our intake. Are you suggesting some refugees are better than others simply because they paid to get on a boat?
What about the ones we don’t take in now because of the ones that came by boat? What do they do?
Peg
Still waiting
Tbe greens spet years worry about tbe forest
How do you compare
Your campaign inthe forests
And leawky boats
my say @ 2088
Thanks for that. 😀
my say
I think Peg’s gone.
we should increase the numbers we take from all sources
my point is – people that don’t patiently wait in line won’t do so just because Australia is no longer on the cards for a boat trip – a boat that sinks going somewhere else is just as tragic as one that sinks coming here
Bemused 2090
Email address , also
[ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 6:43 pm | Permalink
Carbon tax wasn’t even the first story on Adelaide 7 news.
Instead it was a story about a 25 year old cold case murder.
]
Surprised the murder made the news. Serial killers are pretty thick on the ground in SA. 😉
[I will send copies to the Chairman (if I can get his email address) and the Minister.
I will fire off something similar to SBS.]
9’s still referring to it as a ‘carbon tax’ too. They of course started their report by reminding us yet again of TEH LIE, because we all know that’s more important than what was actually achieved.
Poll predictions tonight?
I’m going Greens primary -4, Labor -1, Noalition +3, so however that pans out on TPP.
Gillard approval -5
Abbott approval steady
PPM Abbott +5
[I think Peg’s gone.]
All she heard was the sound of his departing horse ……
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bpIbdZhrzA