The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
Eden-Monaro was held by conservatives of various stripes for all but one term until 1943, the exception being Labor’s 40-vote win when Jim Scullin’s government came to power in 1929. Allan Fraser won the seat for Labor with the 1943 landslide and held it against the tide in 1949 and 1951. He was defeated in 1966 but was back in 1969, finally retiring in 1972. The loss of his personal vote almost saw the seat go against the trend of the 1972 election, with the Country Party overtaking their conservative rivals for the first time to come within 503 votes of victory. The Country Party again finished second in 1974, this time coming within 146 votes of defeating Labor member Bob Whan (whose son Steve unsuccessfully contested the seat in 1998 and 2001, and was later the state member for Monaro). However, 1975 saw the Liberals gain strongly at the expense of the Country Party as well as Labor, and their candidate Murray Sainsbury won the seat with a two-party margin of 5.6%. Sainsbury held the seat until the defeat of the Fraser government in 1983; the same fate befell his Labor successor, Jim Snow, who was swept out by a 9.2% swing when Labor lost office in 1996, and then Gary Nairn, who served as Special Minister of State from January 2006 until the November 2007 election defeat.
Labor’s successful candidate was Lieutenant-Colonel Mike Kelly, a military lawyer who had been credited with efforts to warn the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade about the AWB kickbacks scandal, and the Australian military about possible abuses at Abu Ghraib prison. Kelly was installed as candidate a week after the party’s national conference empowered the state executive to appoint candidates in 25 key seats over the heads of the local party branches. A member of the Right faction, he won immediate promotion to parliamentary secretary for defence support, shifting to the water portfolio in February 2009. After the 2010 election he was shifted to the agriculture, fisheries and forestry portfolio, which was criticised owing to Kelly’s status as the federal parliament’s only war veteran. He was restored to his earlier role in the December 2011 reshuffle.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Peter Hendy, a former Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive and previously a staffer to Brendan Nelson and Peter Reith. Hendy reportedly had a comfortable victory over three other candidates, including Sustainable Agricultural Communities director Robert Belcher. The Nationals have reportedly approached Cooma mayor Dean Lynch to run, having determined that the Liberals’ endorsement of Hendy offers them a “point of difference” owing to his stance on foreign investment and the currency of foreign farm ownership as an issue locally.
Shows On @ 6618
I wonder how question time showdowns between Keating and Abbott would turn out?
25% PV lol
Centre I will laugh if this happens!
😀
Watching her is about the only reason i’ll get QANDA later on. She’s good value.
Mr humphries, mirriumn a nd mavis bramstien
And whats his name
Thry where great for balance i politics
You laughed a lot
Peop,e laughed at each othef
And there was not the hate ,
Bring them back together as a team
It would do so much good
Same here catmomma.
Hurry up ghost.
Wouldn’t you love a 54/46 so Mod Lib could turn a shade of ghost white himself 🙂
Either way – YAWN!
Newspoll
2PP: Coalition 54 Labor 46
Primaries: ALP 32 , LNP 46, GRN 12, other 10
PPM: Gillard 40, Abbott 37
The attacks on celebrities are “vicious” apparently!
What did David Marr say when the panel were saying vicious things about Gina?
QandA has been so much better tonight due in no small part to the very minor role that Jones has been allowed (by the guests) to play.
Graeme
I enjoyed your piece a few wekes back.
I doubt vicarious liability would arise in that siutation. The High Court closed down the widening of the doctrine back in 2000ish with Lepore and Samin (cases involving teacher molestation of children, the second in an one teacher school as I recall).
I thought a settlement may occur early on. There are a few limelight lawyers involved now, however.
[Wouldn’t you love a 54/46 so Mod Lib could turn a shade of ghost white himself]
Would hurry up the leadership change on my side so would more likely get me wet that white…
Gillard: Satisfied 30, unsatisfied 60
Abbott: Satisfied 31, Unsatisfied 60
Glen the polls only reflect the ongoing performance of the media’s propaganda campaign 😛 that is all 🙂
Centre keep up the good fight
s remark is what i am talking about like above.
The nastieness its like a game
To the liberals
Sarcasim. Laughing at us, hoping we feel pain, hopi g the pm will feal pain,
I shame myself to live i such a country,
Was it always lime this
What do u thi k glen
Bye glen
Re Van Onselen. His teaser means it will be bad for Labor. Probably worse for Gillard, but not much for Abbott. People have to remember that SkyNews is put on by the Liberals for the Liberals. They are 90% of their audience. They know it and that’s why they don’t pretend balance. I don’t know why some here watch it expecting anything else. They spent 2007 trying to protect Howard and damage Rudd, 2008 sulking and preaparing for the Rudd onslaught, 2009 and 2010, tearing Rudd down, 2011 tearing Gillard down and trying to make Abbott king and this year it is full on destroy Gillard. All the while propping up the disaster of a human that is Abbott. Funnily enough, some schmucks here think it is because they admire Rudd and want him back. I don’t know why anyone would think PvO has anything but bad news for the patient 5% of non Conservatives that persist with their propaganda.
By the way, I saw PvO at an Elizabeth St, Sydney cafe recently. He walked into the place like he was walking onto a yacht. Yes, that sort of guy.
Best Q &A rest have been crap
Nothing from GhostWhoVotes. Is this legit?
Above are the causal figures btw, not my prediction
Actual rather.
Glen what do you think of Abbott’s poll numbers, they are disgraceful IMHO.
I think Hockey will lead them to the election. It will be Gillard v Hockey.
What you reckon?
Ghost will give the real results.
Cadel evans is terrific,abbott is puny according to mirium
Abbott is the drovers dog Centre IMHO…Gillard was lucky in 2010 she’ll be thumped in 2013 or whenever the next poll is.
I just hope Tone doesn’t thump her by a whole lot as then the Tories will have control of the Senate and a small Opposition…not necessarily good for democracy.
Whats that on th screen then about a leak, fairwork
Phew!
No Craig Thomson-parliamentary-speech-inspired disastrous drop in the Labor Primary Vote. Not that he’s a Labor man any more. 😉
JGPM back in front as Preferred PM too! The Andrew Catsaras ‘arm-wrestle’ between the two contenders continues!
Sweet dreams all. Still, by the morn the ABC will have worked-up a negative angle.
James J has been a good source in the past.
James J,
Why wouldn’t they be dis-satisfied rather than un-satisfied, if they are actual? Be interesting if you were right. It would make my PvO comments look well and truly wrong, if not the makeup of SkyNews.
Are they real figures or not! Sheesh! Now I have to hang around waiting for Ghost Who Votes again. 🙁
[Sweet dreams all. Still, by the morn the ABC will have worked-up a negative angle.]
Either “the Coalition continues to hold a commanding lead” or “people want Kevin Rudd, damnit!”
That’s good enough for me.
That is the main hope we have, Rudd was a serious acceptable potential PM with a solid policy agenda who withstood substantial and serious media attack.
The one strong thing the Sparrow Man isn’t taking into account with his 2007 / 2012 comparison is that Abbott is a weak, dishonest, credible policy free cretin that even liberals in honest moments cannot countenance as PM material. Frankly he isn’t really MP material, but the libs have less depth and talent than Melbourne ATM.
Not to say Abbott wont win, but making Abbott PM is the national equivalence of self harm. And before the abuse starts I take self harm very seriously. much as I take national self harm very seriously.
Miriam is one delightful lady!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-28/fair-work-australia-vice-president-deeply-involved-in-hsu-fight/4038274
Read
Q&A is so better without politicians
O: Internal ructions strike PM again (7.30)
Fair Work Australia vice-president Michael Lawler has had direct involvement in the internal politics of the Health Services Union, the ABC has revealed.
Leaked documents show Mr Lawler wrote a letter of complaint to New South Wales police last year on behalf of himself and his partner, HSU national secretary Kathy Jackson.
At the time Ms Jackson was a crucial whistleblower in FWA’s investigation into Federal MP Craig Thomson.
William if he’s wrong he’s got to be sent to the sin bin 😛
The participants on QandA tonight all share an inner decency and high intellect.
[The participants on QandA tonight all share an inner decency and high intellect.]
With the obvious caveat for the lack of judgement needed to appear on Q&A in the first place.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-28/fair-work-australia-vice-president-deeply-involved-in-hsu-fight/4038274
Gillard
Print Print Email Email Facebook Facebook Twitter Twitter More More
7.30 By political editor Chris Uhlmann and staff
Updated May 28, 2012 22:07:40
VIDEO: Internal ructions strike PM again (7.30)
Fair Work Australia vice-president Michael Lawler has had direct involvement in the internal politics of the Health Services Union, the ABC has revealed.
Leaked documents show Mr Lawler wrote a letter of complaint to New South Wales police last year on behalf of himself and his partner, HSU national secretary Kathy Jackson.
At the time Ms Jackson was a crucial whistleblower in FWA’s investigation into Federal MP Craig Thomson.
In the letter, Mr Lawler made serious accusations against two HSU officials and against the union’s national president.
The letter contains portions of the minutes of HSU meetings and details of contact Mr Lawler and Ms Jackson had with union officials.
I can believe 54/46 but not the 52/48 from last night.
I never watch Q&A only put it on because heard Miriam was on…..
Navy has picked up another 88 juvenile Indonesian fishermen. Should take them and their friends back to their parents.
my say love your posts, and I’m not disagreeing with you but I’ve gotta say Jackson was never a whistleblower by any sensible definition. Whistleblowers act against authority to protect the greater good at risk to themselves. Jackson for a start had the authority so she wasn’t acting against authority she was wielding it. I won’t bother to characterise whether or not I consider she was acting for the greater good, but I will observe that Mr Abbott would consider anything to get rid of the legitimate and very successful govt is for the greater good, his at least and lets face it who else matters.
Next week Crean, Barnaby & Milne.
Oh FFS. “In his private capacity”???
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/fwa-deputy-complained-to-police-20120528-1zfgu.html
If I did this (yes I am a Cth public servant) I would expect (1) to be sacked by my head of agency (2) to have a complete roasting at Estimates
Stinks. Stinks. Stinks.
[Navy has picked up another 88 juvenile Indonesian fishermen. Should take them and their friends back to their parents.]
Aren’t we supposed to be burning billions of taxpayer dollars to ship them to Nauru?
The 52-48 came from Graham Young’s outfit, which also informed us the Labor vote now was 60% what they had calculated it as in 2008 – which would have been about 59%. So I think it’s safe to say there’s a fair bit of house bias going on there.
54/46 would be a great result
Q and A was very entertaining tonight – a group of people with their hearts in the right place that don’t take themselves too seriously
sounds like a QandA exit poll…
[Next week Crean, Barnaby & Milne.]
Poor Crean, a loon on the left and a loon on the right 😆