The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
Eden-Monaro was held by conservatives of various stripes for all but one term until 1943, the exception being Labor’s 40-vote win when Jim Scullin’s government came to power in 1929. Allan Fraser won the seat for Labor with the 1943 landslide and held it against the tide in 1949 and 1951. He was defeated in 1966 but was back in 1969, finally retiring in 1972. The loss of his personal vote almost saw the seat go against the trend of the 1972 election, with the Country Party overtaking their conservative rivals for the first time to come within 503 votes of victory. The Country Party again finished second in 1974, this time coming within 146 votes of defeating Labor member Bob Whan (whose son Steve unsuccessfully contested the seat in 1998 and 2001, and was later the state member for Monaro). However, 1975 saw the Liberals gain strongly at the expense of the Country Party as well as Labor, and their candidate Murray Sainsbury won the seat with a two-party margin of 5.6%. Sainsbury held the seat until the defeat of the Fraser government in 1983; the same fate befell his Labor successor, Jim Snow, who was swept out by a 9.2% swing when Labor lost office in 1996, and then Gary Nairn, who served as Special Minister of State from January 2006 until the November 2007 election defeat.
Labor’s successful candidate was Lieutenant-Colonel Mike Kelly, a military lawyer who had been credited with efforts to warn the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade about the AWB kickbacks scandal, and the Australian military about possible abuses at Abu Ghraib prison. Kelly was installed as candidate a week after the party’s national conference empowered the state executive to appoint candidates in 25 key seats over the heads of the local party branches. A member of the Right faction, he won immediate promotion to parliamentary secretary for defence support, shifting to the water portfolio in February 2009. After the 2010 election he was shifted to the agriculture, fisheries and forestry portfolio, which was criticised owing to Kelly’s status as the federal parliament’s only war veteran. He was restored to his earlier role in the December 2011 reshuffle.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Peter Hendy, a former Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive and previously a staffer to Brendan Nelson and Peter Reith. Hendy reportedly had a comfortable victory over three other candidates, including Sustainable Agricultural Communities director Robert Belcher. The Nationals have reportedly approached Cooma mayor Dean Lynch to run, having determined that the Liberals’ endorsement of Hendy offers them a “point of difference” owing to his stance on foreign investment and the currency of foreign farm ownership as an issue locally.
2012 is just like 2007…people have stopped listening and the train wreck is to come but most people can’t accept that it’s going to happen. I know I refused to.
Anything with a 2 for the news poll is just pathetic.
Imagine if the Liberals had a PV of a 2 in front of it? They cut Nelson off at the knees and wasn’t he in the mid-low 3s?
And one more thing ML – and I know you are not an Abbott fan – but he never did, does not now and never will look a Prime Minister.
Marr slaps down Jones for suggesting it was mining that kept Australia afloat during the GFC.
Tricot that’s ok…Gillard never has either.
We don’t know the result yet and Labor may get another bounce.
Barry made me spit port,get ya for that humpries,im next suburb
Confessions
The statement that the PM did not know about it implied that Ministers where off on a private frolic……
Wow, the first 10mins of #qanda, no PM & Labor bashing
Can’t understand you copes who have a Newspoll conspiracy theory it’s generally been more favorable or Labor than Neilsen for Fairfax and Galaxy. It is very little different from Morgan or Essential . Now anyone who thinks Essential who show an LNP 57 to 43 ALP 2PP is pro Abbott is delusional as they are a stated “Progressive Politics” aligned media Group. It’s the pollies an media who obsess about Newspoll instead of the Poll of Polls that is disappointing. If you have problems believing this just check out Andrew Catsaras on Insiders.
On another point Labor will ditch Gillard before the next election at a time of their own choosing. Of course know one knows when particularly journos who just love righting stories about this stiff. Nobody knows when or by who yet but th planning will be going on now for sure.
Personally as I always say I would love o see Julia Gillard lead the Govt to the next election because it will lead to a 30 plus seat majority to the Libs but Labor ain’t that dumb? Can’t see Rudd getting up again but Labor has plenty of other options who remain relatively untainted ad yet.
As or Oakeshott retiring due to I’ll health that’s a good one made my night !
Is he too sick now to carry on or he just can’t face the humiliation of one of the biggest swings ever recorded against a sitting member?
Windsor might go close to winning to his areas different demographic and Lon established personal following but he will still loose comfortably.
Thank heavens for Victoria and SA from a Labor perspective
Good QandA tonight laughing lots.
QandA is terrific tonight.
Apart from Jones. that is.
If gina was watching mirium,bet she smashed 10 plasmas.and just rang for ten relacements
Well GS, it’s all in the eye of the beholder I suppose.
Turnbull looks like a PM – Abbott does not and never will and, of course, is hated by at least half the country despite the mud thrown at the PM
Rudd looks like a PM, while Howard never did.
See, it is just a matter of perception.
Mmm
Thanks finns
I think the ladt bit was i teresting
Jones is all shitty because he can’t get Hewson to disagree with the others.
David
Come on, u dont want one either
expatriate = traitor ,describes abbott as pom traitor.
I bet Hewson didn’t enjoy parliament being broadcast, having to see himself being savaged by Keating on TV every night.
[BK
Posted Monday, May 28, 2012 at 9:52 pm | Permalink
Jones is all shitty because he can’t get Hewson to disagree with the others.]
I would have disagreed with the others.
It was disgusting to see everyone ganging up on Gina and judging who is right and who is wrong in her family feud and judging how much she donates to charity…
Every day the Tories measure the curtains for the Lodge is a day of hubris they might come to regret.
Lol bill homophobe
deblonay:
You got that right. I’m not a talk-back listener, I’m not a newspaper reader, I’m not a TV news watcher. I am a Parliament watcher and an A-PAC watcher (when I have the time), and in general I pick up information about politics, but where possible from the source. I sometimes stray into radio and (more rarely) into TV. But mostly not. Not even Insiders any more.
I used to watch and read everything, and tried on occasion to give them up when they became frustrating. I had to wait until I figured out they were of no use to me, and then it was easy. I don’t think I know less than I used to. But I certainly have a lot less misinformation clouding my head.
I’d rather discuss politics than read about it. And I don’t discuss politics all that much either.
I did a similar thing with sport, incidentally. I used to be an AFL junkie, I’d devour anything footy-related. Nowadays, even with Fox Footy a click of the remote away, I only watch the games and watch and read nothing else, not even pre-game or post-game on the radio.
Actually, some here say Labor has had a good week.
I can’t see it myself.
It hasn’t been bad, bad, but “good”? I don’t think so.
Still some weeks to go before any reasonable uplift and I have looked in the runes to predict somewhere around November.
I feel entitled to make this prognostication which has about the same validity as those who say the PM will be gone by the end of June.
I don’t know and neither does anybody else. In any event, the media will be the last to get it right.
Mirium loves Pm ,but cannot bear the other little fellow.
Jones looks worried on q an a
Miriam stares Jones down again on the economy.
There is one difference. 2007 was an election year. I’ll happily go along with the “no-one listening” talk if things are the same this time next year. I’m not disagreeing with you, just being cautious about predictions this far out.
Is miriumn
From here though
Well said David Marr
[The statement that the PM did not know about it implied that Ministers where off on a private frolic……]
EMAs originated from a Rudd-era inquiry into employment in the resources sector. The report of recommendations was endorsed by Cabinet about a year ago, with the govt providing a response to its recommendations around the same time. The recommendations included provision for EMAs for super project, which the govt accepted at the time.
Again I ask, why would you think that ministers were doing secret deals when this has been in the govt’s orbit since it came to office? Is it because you are ignorant of the above? I can’t think of any other reason.
Lets have a poll before next Q & A
Not even John Hewson has said anything negative about the PM so far.
Peter Reith asking a question!
Barry Humphries is a national treasure.
My say I just happy to be patient.
[Not even John Hewson has said anything negative about the PM so far.]
You sound so surprised, he is a red tory.
As someone who has been quoted in Hansard on three seperate occasions, I can guarantee a 60+ tpp for the bad guys.
Good o u jackie
Remember jackie i its time
Jones chimes i
[You sound so surprised, he is a red tory.]
Actually he is a proper liberal. He was never a conservative.
Is humphrey serious
If he is watching QandA Eric Abetz’s face must be a brilliant shade of red right now.
Twitter’s reaction has been interesting too. It seems that everyone on the left has gone rigid with shock. We haven’t seen this kind of irreverence on our TV for years.
How dare humphries
Canadians have a name for them who is a Tory but is very left of the party = Red Tory and Hewson is one of them.
Can never forgive him for gifting an election to PJK.
Shellbell @6231. The more I think of it, the more I wonder if there are not cases where harassment could be tied to ‘course of employment’ – eg where executive assistants travel with and work intimately with their bosses. That must be Harmers fall back argument. Given the facts alleged are confined the judge might want to avoid any motions and run it all over a couple of days as a single hearing.
I’ve not thought about it much since writing this speculative op-ed weeks back, before any journos oth than Marcus Priest twigged to the curious processes in Ashby’s claim: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/directors-craft-a-hit-in-political-theatre-20120430-1xuws.html
My instinct is despite all the political theatre, this may settle confidentially. I’m not sure either human being involved will come out of a public hearing rosily; and whatever political vindictiveness is in the application has had its effect.
Can Ghost Who Votes hurry up with the Newspoll, I want to go to bed! 😀
[ShowsOn
Posted Monday, May 28, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink
You sound so surprised, he is a red tory.
Actually he is a proper liberal. He was never a conservative.
]
True that.
The Liberal party is a thing of the past at this stage. Turnbull is the fading light on the hill.
The nutty neo-cons have taken over the asylum.
O humphries was sariiring satire
Now i get it
I ve never been big on undrrstanding satire
Shit Sir Les patterson is now a celebrity chef,eating at home from now on.
“Clive Palmer is the reincarnation of Les Paterson”. Barry H.
So Van Onselen reckons Newspoll will be one not to miss?
Big freaking whoop!