Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.

The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).

Further polling snippets:

• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.

• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.

• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.

Preselection:

• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.

• David Killick of The Mercury reports nine candidates have nominated for the Tasmanian Liberal Party’s preselection, to be determined on June 16. They are incumbents David Bushby and Richard Colbeck, together with “trade and investment adviser Sally Chandler, vineyard owner Sarah Courtney, Launceston Chamber of Commerce staffer Kristen Finnigan, business manager David Fry, Hobart businesswoman Sue Hickey, business development manager Jane Howlett and senior political adviser Don Morris”. Morris is a former chief-of-staff to the state Opposition Leader, Will Hodgman.

• Angus Taylor has been preselected as the Liberal candidate to succeed the retiring Alby Schultz in Hume, winning 26 out of 33 votes in a ballot of delegates from local party branches. Taylor is a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete who had the backing of Schultz and Tony Abbott, and is also said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull. As detailed by the Yass Tribune, other candidates were Ross Hampton, an olive-grower and former adviser to Peter Reith, Ian Campbell and Brendan Nelson; Rick Mandelson, a Mittagong-based chartered accountant; and Ed Storey, a Yass-based grazier.

• Peter Hendy, former Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive and previously a staffer to Brendan Nelson and Peter Reith, has been confirmed as the Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro. Hendy reportedly had a comfortable victory over three other candidates, including Sustainable Agricultural Communities director Robert Belcher. Leslie White of the Weekly Times reports that the Nationals have approached Cooma mayor Dean Lynch to run, having determined that the Liberals’ endorsement of Hendy offers them “a point of difference” owing to his stance on foreign investment and the currency of foreign farm ownership as an issue locally.

• Amy Kelly of City North News reports that Brian Nally, “local activist and president of the Kalinga Wooloowin Residents Association”, will be a contestant for LNP preselection in Lilley, together with the candidate from 2010, Rod McGarvie, and – possibly – Clive Palmer.

• The Barossa Herald reports Tom Zorich has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for the South Australian seat of Wakefield. Zorich is a local sports store retailer and former Gawler councillor, and a former player and club president of the Central Districts Football Club.

• Richard Willingham of The Age presents a helpful list of Liberal preselection candidates for five Labor-held seats, and places particular emphasis on Jagajaga hopeful Nick McGowan, who is press secretary to state Planning Minister Matthew Guy, served as Ted Baillieu’s media director at the 2006 election campaign, and was a civilian peacekeeper who served in Afghanistan, Liberia and Burundi. Phil Barresi, former Deakin MP and unsuccessful candidate in 2010, has decided against nominating again, with John Pesutto, an adviser to Ted Baillieu, widely rated the front-runner. Corangamite: Marcus Dripps, Sarah Henderson, Rod Nockles. Chisholm: Blair Barker, Adrianne Fleming, Mark Lane, John Nguyen, Nicholas Tragas, Theo Zographos. Deakin: Terry Barnes, Michelle Frazer, Phillip Fusco, Andrew Munroe, Simon Olsen, John Pesutto. Jagajaga: Nick McGowan, Mathew Whiffin. La Trobe: Michael Keane, Sue McMillan (Knox councillor and former mayor), Martin Spratt, Jason Wood, Mark Vershuur.

• Online voting has begun for the primary preselection process by which Labor will choose its candidate for the Sydney lord mayoral election, part of a process in which half the vote will be determined by participating voters who declare they are not members of a rival party. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports Chinatown restaurateur Jonathan Yee has reached a preference deal with “legal type Damian Spruce and refugee agitator Linda Scott”. Another candidate, Cassandra Wilkinson, founder of independent radio station FBi and wife of former state minister Paul Macleay, has accused Yee of branch stacking in a bid to strengthen his position in the 50% share of the preselection vote reserved for party members. Wilkinson and Cameron Murphy, NSW Civil Liberties chief, are preferencing each other. How to vote cards are distributed along with candidate statements to the 90,000 Sydney eligible residents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,622 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  2. [Did Albo get his timing right and gag Bishop as well? I reckon he did. ]
    No, he wanted her to accept the call so that when he moved the question be put it wouldn’t count as a back to back division, thus it will take 4 minutes rather than 1 minute.

    It was another way of wasting more time.

  5. [my say

    You were asking whose side is Shows On on.
    That’s what I meant by “labelling”.]
    We are all Australians!

    IN THE TREND WE TRUST!

  7. [No, he wanted her to accept the call so that when he moved the question be put it wouldn’t count as a back to back division, thus it will take 4 minutes rather than 1 minute.]

    Shows – he was out by about 25 secs. Sloppy Albo. 😉

  9. Good timing and planning for this day. The PM is on the other side of he world being states person. Signing agreements etc.
    Abbott down and dirty trashing due process in dirty domestic political games.

  10. Bushfire Bill

    [Which will make it all the worse for him if he is shown to have intervened.]

    Don’t you think that if Lawler had tried to influence the FWA enquiry all hell would have broken out in the FWA?

  16. Come on lizzie

    That wzs a serious question,
    I was wonderi g about his jokes are they cryptic ir serious

    I am also facinated by his speed dating thing on a friday night,
    Just being a bit light hearted actually

  17. [Don’t you think that if Lawler had tried to influence the FWA enquiry all hell would have broken out in the FWA?]

    We could ask him and the investigator… except they’ve both shot through on long leave.

  19. [Don’t you think that if Lawler had tried to influence the FWA enquiry all hell would have broken out in the FWA?]

    Well, eventually.

  20. They still going gaga over an unproven $6000 spent on hookers by Thomson. Yet, they have forgotten a proven $290M used to bribe Saddam

  23. [Don’t you think that if Lawler had tried to influence the FWA enquiry all hell would have broken out in the FWA?]

    Indeed. And isn’t he currently on “long leave”? Ever wondered why?

  26. Finny,
    I’m also unimpressed with Anna Burke. She allows that disreputable poodle to yap on and argue the toss with her. Slipper would have chucked him out.

  27. Don’t forget there is an Ombudsman enquiry into the FWA enquiry currently ongoing so any problems with the FWA enquiry should be highlighted. That seems to be the appropriate way to go short of a full Royal Commission.

  30. my say

    If you are enjoying Shows On, that’s fine.
    You often ask which side people are on, that’s what I meant, and if they seem to be Libs, you tell them to go away.

    By the way, have you heard how young George is, today?

  33. [Shows on you always make me smile can i ask what is the speed dating thing about]
    It’s on Friday.

    Only FOUR MORE SLEEPS TO GO!

  35. I accidentally posted this in the wrong topic, so I’ll try again –

    I’m a former resident of the Sutherland Shire, most of my family still live there, so I’m entitled to say this…

    What is it with Shire people? Look at the MPs they elect – Craig Kelly in Hughes and Scott Morrison in Cook. The good voters of Blacktown and Liverpool are also responsible for foisting Kelly on us, Morrison is the Shire’s own. What on earth were these voters thinking? To my eternal shame I have to admit that two of my sisters and their families vote for these oafs. What are they putting in the water down there these days?

    Things sure have changed since the 1950s. Gough Whitlam used to represent the Shire. Back in the olden days the electorate of Werriwa included the Sutherland Shire and went west as far as the foothills of the Blue Mountains. Gough lived in South Cronulla in those days. When Werriwa was redistributed in about 1955 he moved to Cabramatta so he could continue to live among his constituents. These days Gough wouldn’t stand a chance of winning an election in the Shire. He’d have to be pro-life, devoutly happy-clapper, anti-inmmigration, anti-asylum seekers and virulently anti-muslim to get up. This lot inflicted Danna Vale on us, now we have the abysmal Scott Morrison and the very greedy Craig Kelly. Well done Shire voters

  36. Taylor’s article is OK except she includes Labor in the lack of compassion/witch hunt smear:

    [And while not casting final judgment upon him, the Parliament did not pause to think about the human consequences of ”witch hunts”, even as Mr Thomson broke down before them while talking about the impact of the whole affair on his wife, who was watching his hour-long speech from the gallery.

    Instead they proceeded to cast as much mud as possible against each other.]

  39. I saw somewhere a story that Kathy Jackson had spoken with either Lewis or the OO and said that she and Lawler talked about her being a whistleblower and he agreed to help her.

    Has anyone else seen that – was definitely in the MSM and not a blog.

  40. Finns/Janice: one of the things I loved about Slipper (and probably what the Libs hated about him) was that he laid down the ground rules early in QT.

    He made it clear if they had been told once to STFU and persisted, they would be booted.

    He made it clear if they questioned his rulings, they would be booted.

    These weren’t just idle threats; he followed through. The result of this was a much better behaved parliament.

    The problem with Anna is she tries to use humour as a substitute for being authoritarian … much like Harry did. She needs to learn that humour alone won’t cut it with the Opposition Rabble; they need to be stomped on or they will take advantage.

  42. [Taylor’s article is OK except she includes Labor in the lack of compassion/witch hunt smear:]

    Its an easy way of excusing Liberal behaviour. Just say that each side is as bad as each other. You can see the same process operate in American political coverage.

  45. I hope Albo didn’t get Craig Kelly MP mixed up with Craig Kelly, former Sydney Swan, who is in trouble with creditors.

  46. Wow. Craig Thomson comes out swinging: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-21/thomson-reveals-official-behind-alleged-set-up/4023774

    [Mr Thomson told MPs that the rule of law had been trashed by Parliament.

    “Are we setting ourselves up as some sort of junta where a majority decision of a parliament can suddenly override anyone’s rights? Is that the kind of Australia that you want?” he said.

    “What you have done is not just damage to an individual or their family, you have damaged democracy and you can continue to damage democracy and you should hang your head in shame for that.”

    And he also singled out Opposition Leader Tony Abbott for criticism.

    “I think the Leader of the Opposition’s concept of guilt, of course, means trial and conviction by media and suggests that if he were to become prime minister, populism rather than principle, assertion rather than proof, would be the guiding principles of his government.

    “The statements and the conduct of a number of his senior colleagues also suggest that the rule of law under any future Coalition government would be a discretionary concept to be readily put aside if it served their base political objectives to do so.

    Mr Thomson concluded: “What it is shows is Leader of the Opposition, that man, not only is he unfit to be a prime minister, in my view he is unfit to be an MP.”]

    Its starting to become pretty obvious there’s some very dodgy stuff behind all this – and by no means is it necessarily of Thomson’s own doing.

  47. BH

    [I hope Albo didn’t get Craig Kelly MP mixed up with Craig Kelly, former Sydney Swan, who is in trouble with creditors.]

    Are you serious?

  50. If Grattan retires she’d better make sure her payout is huge because if Thomson is cleared she’ll be in strife for that article she’s written this afternoon.

    Here’s Pyne talking to the press. Get it all out today Chris cos your time will come with Slipper and Ashby.

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