The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
• David Killick of The Mercury reports nine candidates have nominated for the Tasmanian Liberal Party’s preselection, to be determined on June 16. They are incumbents David Bushby and Richard Colbeck, together with “trade and investment adviser Sally Chandler, vineyard owner Sarah Courtney, Launceston Chamber of Commerce staffer Kristen Finnigan, business manager David Fry, Hobart businesswoman Sue Hickey, business development manager Jane Howlett and senior political adviser Don Morris”. Morris is a former chief-of-staff to the state Opposition Leader, Will Hodgman.
• Angus Taylor has been preselected as the Liberal candidate to succeed the retiring Alby Schultz in Hume, winning 26 out of 33 votes in a ballot of delegates from local party branches. Taylor is a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete who had the backing of Schultz and Tony Abbott, and is also said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull. As detailed by the Yass Tribune, other candidates were Ross Hampton, an olive-grower and former adviser to Peter Reith, Ian Campbell and Brendan Nelson; Rick Mandelson, a Mittagong-based chartered accountant; and Ed Storey, a Yass-based grazier.
• Peter Hendy, former Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive and previously a staffer to Brendan Nelson and Peter Reith, has been confirmed as the Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro. Hendy reportedly had a comfortable victory over three other candidates, including Sustainable Agricultural Communities director Robert Belcher. Leslie White of the Weekly Times reports that the Nationals have approached Cooma mayor Dean Lynch to run, having determined that the Liberals’ endorsement of Hendy offers them “a point of difference” owing to his stance on foreign investment and the currency of foreign farm ownership as an issue locally.
• Amy Kelly of City North News reports that Brian Nally, “local activist and president of the Kalinga Wooloowin Residents Association”, will be a contestant for LNP preselection in Lilley, together with the candidate from 2010, Rod McGarvie, and – possibly – Clive Palmer.
• The Barossa Herald reports Tom Zorich has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for the South Australian seat of Wakefield. Zorich is a local sports store retailer and former Gawler councillor, and a former player and club president of the Central Districts Football Club.
• Richard Willingham of The Age presents a helpful list of Liberal preselection candidates for five Labor-held seats, and places particular emphasis on Jagajaga hopeful Nick McGowan, who is press secretary to state Planning Minister Matthew Guy, served as Ted Baillieu’s media director at the 2006 election campaign, and was a civilian peacekeeper who served in Afghanistan, Liberia and Burundi. Phil Barresi, former Deakin MP and unsuccessful candidate in 2010, has decided against nominating again, with John Pesutto, an adviser to Ted Baillieu, widely rated the front-runner. Corangamite: Marcus Dripps, Sarah Henderson, Rod Nockles. Chisholm: Blair Barker, Adrianne Fleming, Mark Lane, John Nguyen, Nicholas Tragas, Theo Zographos. Deakin: Terry Barnes, Michelle Frazer, Phillip Fusco, Andrew Munroe, Simon Olsen, John Pesutto. Jagajaga: Nick McGowan, Mathew Whiffin. La Trobe: Michael Keane, Sue McMillan (Knox councillor and former mayor), Martin Spratt, Jason Wood, Mark Vershuur.
• Online voting has begun for the primary preselection process by which Labor will choose its candidate for the Sydney lord mayoral election, part of a process in which half the vote will be determined by participating voters who declare they are not members of a rival party. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports Chinatown restaurateur Jonathan Yee has reached a preference deal with “legal type Damian Spruce and refugee agitator Linda Scott”. Another candidate, Cassandra Wilkinson, founder of independent radio station FBi and wife of former state minister Paul Macleay, has accused Yee of branch stacking in a bid to strengthen his position in the 50% share of the preselection vote reserved for party members. Wilkinson and Cameron Murphy, NSW Civil Liberties chief, are preferencing each other. How to vote cards are distributed along with candidate statements to the 90,000 Sydney eligible residents.
[Shows On, why do you come onto this site? Are you capable of having a rational debate? Your comments seem very immature.]
I come here to discuss the TREND.
WHat do you think about the TREND?
http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DtbZDjnWtK1A&v=tbZDjnWtK1A&gl=AU
True colours lve this song
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 32s
Christopher Pyne is moving a motion to SSO to consider Craig #Thomson’s statement.]
[Because Rudd’s dismissal never was exclusively about the polls, it was more about problems with his dysfunctional governing style.]
His government was so dysfunctional that according to the poll TREND, it was leading.
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 1m
Coalition MP just pulled out of Capital Hill 2 hrs before broadcast. Is there anyone else available at this short notice? Seriously stressed]
I’ll do it!
“No…toxic tax…stop the boats…tainted vote…they just are…election now…I’m going.”
There you go, problem solved.
victoria
Not quite yet he is not.
[BH
When you are headed this way, let me know. Maybe we can round up the SA Chapter for lunch?]
Yes!!!
victoria
And how will the Oppn “consider” it?
Big joke.
[Richard Willingham @rwillingham 2m
Labor backbenchers yell out “what’s your phone number?” to Pyne
Retweeted by latikambourke]
·
[Is it only 7 months? Feels like a lifetime.]
How very trendy of you Uncle Frank.
al palster – my OH can be a cynical old sod about politicians at times but he thought the same as you. Thomson made too many definitive statements for somebody who would be in trouble if he lied to Parliament.
A neighbour told us yesterday that he and his mates, at a buck’s night when younger, booked a brothel using a credit card belonging to the father of one of the blokes.
Said the father was furious when he found out and threatened them all with it reporting to the Police but when he realised they were all scared stiff he ended up laughing and holding out his hand for repayment.
[ABC News 24 @ABCNews24 1m
Coming Up: HSU national secretary Kathy Jackson is expected to hold a news conference shortly. #auspol #Thomson]
[His government was so dysfunctional that according to the poll TREND, it was leading.]
You miss my point. Rudd was still ahead in the polls, but most indications we have are that his government (especially by 2010) was highly chaotic behind the scenes and risked getting worse. I mean, its not like Labor would have taken the decision to change PM lightly.
Muted pyne ,
[ABC News 24 @ABCNews24
Coming Up: HSU national secretary Kathy Jackson is expected to hold a news conference shortly. #auspol #Thomson]
Albo playing dirty. Good on yer, Albo!
[La Stupenda might have just gone over the line here with this piece.]
Yet again, a distinct lack of evidence or facts from Grattan, just a couple of words about what she thinks everyone should believe just because, oh you know, it’s what she reckons.
Andrew Watson@Andy_Downunda
WHIPPED: High-ranking FWA official Michael Lawler flipped from Opus Dei to the dangerous cult of Kathy Jackson http://bit.ly/JhHEUR
Abbott very, very quiet today.
Definite change in numbers. First day of motion to shut opposition members up.
That is a firming in cross bench support of the government.
Definitie Coalition loss. Accurate reports will reflect this.
[In any case apparently everyone is telling lies except for Thomson and despite all the contrary we should accept everything he says just because he says it. What a complete waste of parliamentary time.]
The only thing we can be sure of is… Dog. Vomit. Return.
How very unsporting of the member to interrupt a perfectly good liberal witch hunt by having his own say. Disgraceful.
Al, plaister
my oh has ben very quite re this i watched his expression at one stage he seemed teary
Also.
[Albo playing dirty. Good on yer, Albo!]
Yep, the Indies will vote with the Libs on the no gag principle, if they are even in the house. But if Albo runs down the clock everytime a Pyne SSO is moved, surely he will need another tactic.
[Definite change in numbers. First day of motion to shut opposition members up.
That is a firming in cross bench support of the government.]
LOL! The Government LOST both of the divisions to shut up Pyne and Bishop earlier today. If you read the Live House Minuts you can clearly see that Oakeshott, Windsor and Wilkie all voted with the opposition:
http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Chamber_documents/Live_Minutes_-_House
The reason Albo did it is to simply use up their speaking time so they couldn’t be heard anyway.
It is actually a bad look for the government to not allow debate on an issue, hence these motions are used rarely.
George Bludger@GeorgeBludger
So not ONE policy question from the Opp. today? Amazing stuff from the dickheads that think they are better to lead this country
[Abbott very, very quiet today.]
Let’s hope it’s a trend.
[The reason Albo did it is to simply use up their speaking time so they couldn’t be heard anyway.]
A great tactic today.
[So not ONE policy question from the Opp. today]
Same as any other day really
[When you are headed this way, let me know. Maybe we can round up the SA Chapter for lunch?]
DannyL – that would be great. Will let you know.
[I mean, its not like Labor would have taken the decision to change PM lightly.]
Yep, because Rudd sent out a Alistair Jordan to canvas his level of caucus support, Julia Gillard felt spurned that Rudd doubted her loyalty, so she demonstrated her loyalty by deposing him only a few short days after she doubted his loyalty.
[TONY JONES: Why was it so important to bring this on so quickly?
PAUL HOWES: Well, I think that, unfortunately, having staffers going out and canvassing support for the Prime Minister, insinuating that there has been some type of challenge mounted by the Deputy Prime Minister in the last couple of days.
TONY JONES: You’re talking about the Prime Minister’s chief of star Alistair Jordan?
PAUL HOWES: Well yeah and I think that that was a grave mistake. You know, the Deputy Prime Minister had previously, um…, without any caveats, given her full support to the Prime Minister.
Now there were many people in the party, I’ve gotta confess that I was one of them, wondering whether, whether there should be a change. Now obviously that was within the organisational party and it filtered through into the parliamentary party.]
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2010/s2935399.htm
Same line taken by jackson
[During his address, Mr Thomson said questions needed to be answered relating to Ms Jackson’s partner, Michael Lawler, who works at Fair Work Australia.
“The body that is investigating these issues, the main accuser, their partner is second in charge,” he told parliament.
However, Ms Jackson said this was not relevant as her partner’s jurisdiction did not cover the investigation]
Ive never been able to work out
Whos side is shows on,
Any one know
[The reason Albo did it is to simply use up their speaking time so they couldn’t be heard anyway.
It is actually a bad look for the government to not allow debate on an issue, hence these motions are used rarely.]
Yes the Coalition tactics will be simple. Keep raising SSO’s till debate is allowed.
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 32s
Phew. Senator Nick Xenophon steps in to save my day! *exhales*
View details ]·
BG
You should read a few more blogs here.
Nobody on the progressive side is cheering 55/54-45/46 as this is still a big gap.
My point, made here on many occasions, is that there is out there, some 8% of the PV, currently unwilling to come to Labor – sitting with Abbott – for who knows why – some with Greens and some with others.
I suspect there is actually 6% of this lot who call themselves ‘Labor’ voters and it was when Rudd looked like he may come back, that suddenly they decided to jump back on board, thereby boosting the PV up to 36 or 37% or thereabouts. The remaining 2% is the same 2% which both parties have to fight like hell for to make it the 52-48 scenario we see in most elections outcomes.
This does not hide the fact that, of course, on these numbers the loss of seats would be bad for Labor but the election, under normal circumstances is still some way off – at least one budget and one election campaign away.
I just get a little weary of the gloom and doom stuff from people who I though had more gumption.
Did Albo get his timing right and gag Bishop as well? I reckon he did. 😉
Slippery Pete must be enjoying the breather.
my say
No need to keep labelling people. Just ignore the posts you don’t like.
[Ive never been able to work out
Whos side is shows on,
Any one know]
Depends on the TREND
just get a little weary of the gloom and doom stuff from people who I though had more gumption.
They also do t realise how boring one reads two words moves on ‘
Yep. 🙂
Haha – Anna Burke “I can’t hear what’s going on – they’re like chooks without heads”, after the division is called.
Fun times.
UF
[Slippery Pete must be enjoying the breather.]
Eh?
[However, Ms Jackson said this was not relevant as her partner’s jurisdiction did not cover the investigation]
Which will make it all the worse for him if he is shown to have intervened.
Lizzie
Whom am i labeling
You just pointed out that its not thewell endowed that vote liberal:-)
I’d like to know more about the “upsets” in the Lib party room this morning. Maybe one of them was urging caution.
[Yes the Coalition tactics will be simple. Keep raising SSO’s till debate is allowed.]
Problem is the Libs lose every motion to suspend. That is why they are the Opposition.
Did Thomson point to the Lawler and Abbott connection today?
I am not impressed with this Speaker, she is everywhere
my say
You were asking whose side is Shows On on.
That’s what I meant by “labelling”.