Galaxy: 64-36 to federal Coalition in Queensland

GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Courier-Mail will carry a poll of 800 Queensland respondents (producing a margin of error of 3.5%) which puts the Coalition’s lead in the state at 64-36. This is less bad for Labor than the spectacular 68-32 in the Queensland component of last week’s Nielsen result, but quite a bit worse than the 58-42 in the January-March geographic breakdown from Newspoll (which was mostly conducted before Labor’s post-leadership challenge downturn). Galaxy has Labor at 23% of the primary vote, the Coalition at 56% and the Greens at 11%, compared with 18%, 56% and 11% in Nielsen. The poll has support for the carbon tax at 25% and opposition at 72%, respectively down four and up five since November.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,819 comments on “Galaxy: 64-36 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

Comments Page 3 of 57
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  2. Drover’s Dog
    Posted Saturday, May 19, 2012 at 4:44 am | Permalink

    Respecting Gillard, she has good days in parliament but outside seems as wooden as a marionette. So the people have two choices, a cardboard cutout android, and someone who is mad as a cut snake.

    I see the situation much more in terms of policy and achievements rather than personalities.

    On that basis it is a straight forward choice. For me anyway. It has nothing to do with so called cardboard cutout androids.

    Why do you think the tories don’t want the focus on policy, let alone costings.

  3. Dogma i am hopless on twiter,
    So thats great, in the long run i think twitter, will overcome the evil thats out there thank you.
    Yes and small key board are my let down also 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  4. http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/libs-investigate-corangamite-tussle-20120518-1ywal.html

    [Libs investigate Corangamite tussle
    Tom Arup and Reid Sexton
    May 19, 2012

    AN ACRIMONIOUS battle for Liberal preselection for the Victorian federal seat of Corangamite has sparked an investigation by party headquarters amid allegations of personal attacks.

    The contest is a three-way battle between former ABC television reporter and lawyer Sarah Henderson, former Howard government adviser Rod Nockles, and Geelong physiotherapist Marcus Dripps. It is believed the investigation is into an alleged smear campaign against Ms Henderson.

    One MP said there was a ”dirt sheet ” circulating around the electorate about one of the candidates.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/slipper-allegations-decried-as-character-assassination-20120518-1yw87.html

    [Slipper allegations decried as ‘character assassination’
    May 19, 2012
    Louise Hall

    SALACIOUS allegations of sexual harassment and misuse of Cabcharges against the Speaker of the Parliament, Peter Slipper, have been an ”an exercise in ambush” and ”character assassination”, his lawyer says.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/greeces-options-a-rock-a-hard-place-and-oblivion-20120518-1yw70.html

    [Greece’s options: a rock, a hard place, and oblivion
    May 19, 2012
    Jessica Irvine]

  5. Don’t fuck with Campbell Newman and Queenslanders. Under his new doctrine we will have more troops than the regular army.
    Everyone in Qld is required to have a descriptor of which part of the Qld fighting brigade they belong.

    [Premier Campbell Newman has asked all government departments to hold off on recruiting new staff, with the public service now needing to classify each role as either frontline, support or operational. With new hospital boards coming on July 1, the freeze has been implemented at Townsville Hospital, which has hired 221 new employees since December.]

    Frontline means you belong to the bush ticks Brigade.

    Support means you belong the the athletics jock strap Brigade.

    Operational means you belong to the victualing brigade to supply the dope rations or propaganda.

    Operational in Newman speak is spelt with a silent D and its syllables mean

    Ope = dope
    ration = how much you get
    al= belonging to.

    So if you get lots of dope, which could be described as either drugs or news media feeds you will be in a constant state of euphoria and have not a clue what’s really happening around you.

    You will then get out of bed in the morning and pull on your support and drink a bottle of frontline.

    Since i now have to be a trooper in the Operational Support group on the Frontline I have lodged my preference with Campbell Newman to be a Rear Admiral, as a Rear Admirals vice is a Vice admirals rear. 😀

    It is truly a sad state of affairs when in excess of 50% of my fellow Qlders are now being governed shat upon by so many members of parliament who got there on less than 50% of the vote.

    shades of the good old days of Johs gerrymanders.

    The only time there should be optional preferential voting is if there are only two candidates running for a seat.

  6. Good morning, bludgers.

    I’ve lost a very very long battle to stay off insulin – thankfully diagnosed before all the high-complex-carb diet crap appeared, so staved it off for ages with high protein & minimal grain carbs; but it was always going to happen if I lived long enough.

    So cheering myself up here with a bit of my fave trivia – I had to write an essay on this bloke (& incident) in Senior Exam AncHist after gross panic when I couldn’t recall who he was!

    [wasn;t ‘line in the sand’ something to do with bare knuckle boxing?]

    No. Way more interesting than that! Roman c168BC, to in/famous Selucid ruler Antiochus IV Epiphanes (a gorgeous Greek God of a looker, unless his image on coins was enhanced) – a major pain in the butt to Egyptians, Romans, traditional Jews etc, whose brother Rome held as hostage.

    AE had invaded and had a second go at trying to conquer Egypt, only to be foiled by a single old Roman Ambassador who delivered him an ultimatum which said, in effect, Would you rather pack up and leave Egypt quietly, or would you rather we Romans taught you the same salutary lesson we taught Hannibal’s lot?. When AE obfuscated, the Roman envoy drew a line around him, saying that, before he crossed the line, the envoy wanted his reply to the Roman Senate. IOW, Cross that line, you idiot, and we’ll wipe the Eastern Mediterranean with you.

    AE’s Roll of Dishonour included invading Egypt and sacking Jerusalem; He’s blamed for precipitating the Maccabean Revolt (though the real cuplrit was probably a stoush, between hellenised Jews and the traditional ones, over who’d provide the High Priest). AE backed the former; so persecuted trad Jews.

    To cap it all, AE got into a fight with the Parthians, fierce warriors and the most lethal archers that side of Agincourt. Just as he seemed to be winning, he died suddenly.

    No one conquered the Parthians or their descendants in the arid mountains north of the Fertile Crescent: not the Romans; not the Brits; not even Andropov’s USSR, and not Bush-Obama’s Americans.

  7. Good morning all.

    [On that basis it is a straight forward choice. For me anyway. It has nothing to do with so called cardboard cutout androids.]

    A starker way of viewing it is that Western Australians actually have a state leader who projects that emotional clap trap people seem to be enthralled with, yet is screwing over the have-nots by jacking up the price of utilities, refusing to invest in infrastructure, and blaming everyone else for his government’s limitations and failings rather than doing the hard job of government and fixing these bottlenecks.

    By contrast we have a federal government which is actually implementing reforms which improve our country as a whole, and help the have-nots by making the haves pay their fair share. And people complain about lack of spirituality and emotion?

    We are officially a nation of whingers.

  8. I was almost going to give Lenore Taylor a pass mark on that article until I read
    [Labor also woefully failed to explain that it was fully compensating many households for the impact of the tax]
    WHAT?!
    Has the MSM groupthink reached the stage that they don’t actually notice that the government has been banging on about this very thing since day 1? Perhaps the MSM’s steely determination not to pass this minor bit of information to the public has so bent their minds that they now think it’s the GOVERNMENT’S fault if it doesn’t get through. Go back and re-read the article now and her whole thesis sounds much less convincing.

    The government has largely been telling the truth. Admittedly it is dressed up to sound as good as possible but I think that’s fair enough. It’s the opposition that’s been telling blatant porkies. The MSM just can’t get itself out of this “balance” thing where both sides have to be painted a black as the other, despite the objective truth being different – or perhaps the motivation is more sinister.

  9. This from Harry Belafonte, 86

    [What is the most important lesson life has taught you?
    Never talk to journalists.]

  10. [Has the MSM groupthink reached the stage that they don’t actually notice that the government has been banging on about this very thing since day 1? Perhaps the MSM’s steely determination not to pass this minor bit of information to the public has so bent their minds that they now think it’s the GOVERNMENT’S fault if it doesn’t get through. Go back and re-read the article now and her whole thesis sounds much less convincing.]

    And if all they ever talked about was carbon compensation, you’d have Mark Simkin doing one of his montage specials….

    [SIMKIN: The government was on message today.

    MONTAGE OF MINISTERS: “Carbon compensation”… “carbon compensation”… “carbon compensation”… “carbon compensation”… “carbon compensation”… “carbon compensation”…

    SIMKIN: One minister, however…

    HAPLESS MINISTER AT DOOR STOP:… “carbon constipat… er… combin”

    {FX: JOURNOS LAUGHING}

    HAPLESS MINISTER AT DOOR STOP:…”uhm…compenstatio…. COMPENSATION!

    {FX: JOURNOS CHEERING}

    HAPLESS MINISTER AT DOOR STOP: There… got it!”

    SIMKIN: … perhaps said it at least more realistically than all the rest. With the polls the way they are, showing the government’s message about its flagship policy is hated by the voters, the message seems to be getting stuck somewhere, and the public just isn’t listening.

    Mark Simkin, ABC News.

    {BACK TO JUANITA}]

  13. [THE WikiLeaks founder, Julian Assange, would stand a good chance of securing a Senate seat, most likely at the expense of the Greens, a new poll has found.]

    [His highest level of support was among Greens voters and, overall, he was more popular in NSW.

    The poll found 66 per cent of Greens voters had a positive view of Mr Assange and 39 per cent of Greens voters were likely to vote for Mr Assange in a Senate election.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/popularity-of-an-assange-run-for-senate-could-leave-greens-with-envy-20120518-1yvzl.html#ixzz1vGYUNcPT

    I suspected at the time he announced his intention to run for the Senate that Assange would poll well among GReens voters. Not that I think he will run. Can he even stand for election in Australia while under house arrest in Britain?

  14. Morning bludgers

    Thanks Schnappi,BK, Leroy and others for links this morning.

    As finns mentioned last night, Jess Wright the journo who has reported on the Ashby matter so far will be on MTP tomorrow.

    Here is exchange

    [@jesswrightstuff are you doing any MOAR articles on #pynegate]

    [11m Jessica Wright Jessica Wright ‏@jesswrightstuff

    @Thefinnigans @GenGusface Heya. I’m on meet the press on Sunday. Look out for it.]

    [@jesswrightstuff @Thefinnigans come clean- is this a drip drip story or is at a brickwall]

    [7m Jessica Wright Jessica Wright ‏@jesswrightstuff

    @GenGusface @Thefinnigans neither. I report on what I know. But I know a fair bit about this one…]

  15. victoria:

    I love how MOAR has morphed into its own word and has been taken up in the vernacular.

    MOARphed? 😆

  16. The same thing is happenjng to Labor gov which is to what is happenjng here. Every single piece of bad news is reported back. Nothjng wrong with that, but if yiu listen to it with the express purpose of thnkinh that everyone agrees with it, your not going to try to change it.

    I dont knkw what is happening to Labor senior ministers or back benches who think that sitting back and waiting for compo to start to change ppls minds! Look at the fool Joyce not a scap of economic ability or creditablity, yet he made headlines and cuts thru to a uhmm certain pocket of people (ppl). Emmo, Albo, for their passion of cutting thru crap And Tanya for her cool logic and every back bencher they can get on air asking those one or two questions

    Yes we can blame the media, or start fighting back with asking the questsions.

    1. What is Direct Action plan?
    2. Where are the costings for their economic plan?

    Just these two questions alone they are vunerable.

    Nb. I also use the excuse of Ipad to cover my bad spelling, but keyboard is a shocker.

  18. I feel very sprry for qld.’labor voters

    I wrote to lara this morning thanking her for not sacking any one,,

    She chose the human way,’,,of keeping people in work.’.
    Yes we do have som debt.”’

    Bt as a mumand dad ‘would you throw the children to ghe wolves so’put’our bank balance’up.

    All i hope’is’we keep’the’liberal’wolves’away’from tas.’
    Qld.’LABOR voters are very welcome,”you know its’not as cold’as”you may’ think, seasons are wonders to behold,
    House prices very good you could sell make a profit and own a home here, and vote labor:-) 🙂 🙂

  21. dogma

    Ipad has bluetooth you can get a bluetooth keyboard for it and have a full keyboard for those times you are not on the move.

  23. Dogma i feel a desperation, in your writings which i share on days,

    Yes the media laws must come asap.

    We must ring write demand them from our gov.’ From july

  26. I am getting more confident about the future of media coverage. The fact that Lenore Tayler got her article published is proof of this to me. I think a month ago it would not have seen the light of day. I do think this is because media people are starting to realise just how much people want the new media laws to overcome this campaign by the media to change governments. It is not for the media to campaign on changing governments. It is for media to challenge established views. To dispense actual real facts. To tell people about what is happening. It is not for media to campaign. Campaigns are for lobby groups like GetUp! who cannot campaign properly because that same media blocks their ability to advertise. Even when they have raised the necessary money required to do so.
    That very black and white issue shows why the media is out of control. If it is not in the media or its vested interests view of advantage they will use their control to stop an alternative view being aired.

  27. News International newspapers could be spun off into trust
    [Rupert Murdoch’s News International titles — The Sun, Times and Sunday Times — could be spun off into a trust under plans being worked on by senior News Corp executives.

    The trust would work along the lines of a proposal put forward last year for Sky News if BSkyB had been taken over by News Corp. A separate board would manage the business at arms’ length from News Corp, effectively creating a firewall between the two. Chief operating officer Chase Carey is understood to have instructed executives to look at a number of options to hive off the troubled UK newspaper arm.

    The move, prompted by the phone hacking scandal at the News of the World, would allow Mr Murdoch’s media empire to restart its bid to take over broadcaster BSkyB. Proposals under consideration include creating a trust to manage the UK newspaper assets, going into a joint venture with a media partner or a direct sale to private equity.

    The plans are in their infancy but News Corp is understood to be serious about ridding itself of assets it sees as fatally contaminated by the phone hacking scandal. ]

  28. Schnappi

    [How poor is the Queensland Government ,how sick are the Queensland people,what a sick liberal premier]

    No where near as sick as a person who’s post that sort of statist abuse on a public forum!

    Why Qld only? Why not WA., NSW, Vic which also elected Lib-Nat governments? Just in case we don’t get the message that you are an antiQld bigot?

    Since when has exercising a democratic right to vote for whomever people choose been an invitation for bigots to attack that right?

    I did not vote for, or even preference the LNP; yet you have slurred me and everyone else who did not vote for the LNP – including Greens – as “sick”!

    This sort of discrimination is below contempt. Get a life, you sicko!

  29. My say

    Not a desperarion but a williness to look at what labor is not doing and fix it. Media and communcations is their vunerability. Stop being so on message and break out with a swear word or a bit of anger.

    Thx everyone for keyboard advice and commiserations. Hopefully kidlets will give early birthday present.

  30. “imagine the impact of 1000 emails” its just like the time 1000s of emails and calls were made to stop the ETS Tony Abbott became leader. It’s called people power. I was part of it.

  31. dogma

    Seriously. I hated the ipad touch keyboard initially. Now I have trouble using the traditional keyboard. With time, you will probably be the same

  35. I have just found out that I will have to go in to work on Monday afternoon, so I’ll miss the Thomson speech and what will be either a very fiery or very subdued QT.
    Dammit!

  36. OzPol Tragic

    Very sorry to hear of your insulin problem and congrats for staving it off for so long. These “have to do it every day ” treatments are a pest. OH must do eye-drops 3 times/day to prevent further loss of sight from glaucoma.

    Meanwhile – Qld politics. Something I read – was it you? – said that the number of seats won by LNP did not reflect the size of progressive vote. Is there still some sort of imbalance in seats that helped to distort the results? Some leftovers from Joh’s gerrymanders, perhaps?

  38. Victoria

    You must have little hands. I touch type or used to, but finger type on this. Will get the bluetooth one and set it up with my flat sreen (if i can).

    First born a uni stident in IT, set up his own server, maybe he can set me up on the big screen 🙂

  39. [Why hasn’t Lenore Taylor written ‘the truth’ before this? ]

    It seems Ms Taylor may not face the same editorial scrutiny late on Fridays.

    I think there could be a pattern.

  44. [Rupert Murdoch’s News International titles — The Sun, Times and Sunday Times — could be spun off into a trust under plans being worked on by senior News Corp executives.

    The trust would work along the lines of a proposal put forward last year for Sky News if BSkyB had been taken over by News Corp. A separate board would manage the business at arms’ length from News Corp, effectively creating a firewall between the two. Chief operating officer Chase Carey is understood to have instructed executives to look at a number of options to hive off the troubled UK newspaper arm.]

    Sounds typical. No doubt they’d have someone like Rebekah Brooks rnnng the Trust -a at arms length – of course from Rupert.

    Who do these nits think they’re fooling?

  46. smithe

    They fool no one. They think they might save some of the furniture by giving David Cameron an excuse to water down upcoming Leveson recommendations.

  47. GUytaur,

    Thx alot to choose from.

    On the previous discussion, take out the media, how do you see the Labor gov getting their message out in a better way?

  48. I think the QLD government should have changed hands two elections ago, more as a cycle than Labor dominance, but the LNP had nothing to offer the poeple of QLD so we were more or less forced with the devil you know rather than a clear choice and what we have seen here is possibly a bigger than usual backlash and not because the LNP have any better policies than last election they found a “cleanskin” do distract the voters from the LNP.

    I watched Seeney last night and it made me crawl not because he is LNP but because it left me the sense that it is going to be payback time after being opposition for so long, much I fear if Abbott wins Govt. I think if the LNP continue with this arrogance they are showing they could find themselves back where they started.

  49. [victoria
    Posted Saturday, May 19, 2012 at 9:41 am | Permalink
    Newtothis

    Newsbreak. You have not stopped the ETS. Fixed price for three years. Then ETS starts.]

    Good reply Vic. Or as Frank would probably have responded: Suck it up princess.

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