Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.

UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.

Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.

Seat of the week: Banks

A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.

Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.

Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.

Labor’s member since 1990 has been Daryl Melham, a former barrister and member of the Left faction. Melham rose to the shadow ministry in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander affairs portfolio after the 1996 election defeat, but quit in August 2000 in protest against his party’s decision not to oppose Queensland’s contentious native title laws. He returned after the 2001 election, but voluntarily went to the back bench after the 2004 election saying he preferred to focus on committee work. Since the current government came to power he has served as chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters.

The Liberal candidate at the next election will be David Coleman, director of strategy and digital for Nine Entertainment, whom The Australian’s Media Diary describes as a factional moderate and “one of David Gyngell’s closest lieutenants”. Coleman won a local preselection ballot in March with 60 votes against 33 for the candidate from 2010, Ron Delezio, a businessman who came to public attention after his daughter Sophie received horrific injuries in separate accidents in 2003 and 2006.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,261 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks”

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  1. Danny,

    Wright said last night on twitter that all due diligence had been completed.

    Maybe the rest of the email is too hot to handle.

  3. The Finnigans@2724
    Blood oath – ABC Breakfast TV was appalling this morn.

    What they got from Kelty’s speech, the scrolling text at the bottom of the screen, was distilled to – “Labor should stop lying” and “Not media’s fault that Labor can’t sell message”
    and Hawke sang

    And Swan gave the ABC more money in the budget. And they despise him for it .. got me stuffed.

  4. Laocoon

    McLymont is a crime reporter. There isnt a bit of underworld scuttlebut including the murder of McGurk thatt hse hasnt brought to the surface.

  5. Posted Thursday, May 17, 2012 at 9:55 am | Permalink

    Gillard should be attending a NAPLAN test today. Its her baby and she should get credit for it. Also gives her a chance to line up against the shadow education minister.BLUE GREEN

    The pm, ”would know that would make little ones’very nervous,”my daughter has enough to do keeping her grade fives calm, with out a dignatary of any kind turning up
    For a photo shoot.

  7. [Is it a crime to seek to bring an MP or the parliament into disrepute?]

    Not outside of Singapore at least.

    There is the possibility of defamation action for MPs, but the Houses themselves should be the only ones dealing with any contempts.

  10. [Very fishy that once they’d done their job – that of sensationalizing the legal action – most of the juicier bits, anything thatg implicated the Liberal Party and anything that showed Ashby as anything other than an innocent abroad… are all gone.]

    Ah, but Ashby’s original complaint was published and made available as a pdf. So were Steve Lewis’s DT rant, and a good many other intemperate comments in the media and – outside Parliamentary Privilege – from politicians’ mouths.

    After Jessica Wright’s and VexNews’s revelations, Ashby’s lawyers may have pruned the complaint; but that does not remove the damage accusations in the original complaint, and commentary on them, caused to Slipper’s reputation, and any “pain and suffering” it caused him or his family. Indeed, as they’d hardly have been deleted if they were legally defensible, they may be more of a defamation problem.

    It’s now Liberal Opposition members, rather than Government, who want Ashby to go away; but with Emmo, Albo et al on the Opposition’s case over Ashby and Thomson, there’s little if any chance the Ashby Incident will disappear any time soon.

    There’s also little chance the AFP will suddenly forget about Ashby or any part of his complaint. Their findings might not appear in court, but their Report to the relevant Minister/s will be tabled and discussed in Parliament.

    In addition, never forget Senator Conroy is there, in the background, developing a new Media Regulatory Body and all that goes with it. As the MSM is very well aware!

  15. [ “today the children of Australia are showing the results of their hard work in mathematics. Shame these children weren’t availbale to help Joe Hockey with his $70bn black hole”]

    Or “our focus on numeracy at a year 3 level will hopefully prevent further budget replies like we saw from Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey”

  19. I have a theory about the subject line of Pyne’s email.

    The initial email from Pyne – at 11.01pm – asks a third person for Ashby’s contact details. At some point in the next couple of minutes, Pyne receives that information back and then responds.

    However, the nature of that response makes no sense. The subject line, in and of itself, seems to indicate an ongoing conversation, or at least a response to something that had just come before it. But how can that be when there would have been barely enough time between the initial email and the follow-up email only 2 minutes later?

    What DOES make sense is if this request had already been made, probably at the drinks. “Give me your email addy and we’ll talk about this later”. Only then Slipper caught them out. They would have known it was likely, once the Ashby changes were in the public domain, Slipper would let it be known they appeared to be conspiring against him a month or so before. The spotlight would then be on Pyne.

    However, by establishing a seemingly innocuous email exchange they can say “nothing to see here” and hope the media dutifully moves on.

    Let’s forget Pyne’s weasel words about whether or not he emailed him after the 19th. We know there will be nothing to find, because it is increasingly obvious that any interaction was organised off the work grid, which was the whole point of establishing straight away, via email, “you see, only aph address”.

    Incidentally, I love the way Pyne and Ashby were so eager to continue contact after drinkies that there were 3 email exchanges; Pyne to staffer, Pyne to Ashby and then Ashby to Pyne in only 2 minutes.

    And then no contact after that? Yeah, sure …

  22. If only we had journos with as much courage in this country. This is a great article:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/lets-just-say-it-the-republicans-are-the-problem/2012/04/27/gIQAxCVUlT_story.html

    [Mike Lofgren, a veteran Republican congressional staffer, wrote an anguished diatribe last year about why he was ending his career on the Hill after nearly three decades. “The Republican Party is becoming less and less like a traditional political party in a representative democracy and becoming more like an apocalyptic cult, or one of the intensely ideological authoritarian parties of 20th century Europe,”]

    Here’s the money quote that Australian journalists ought to reflect upon:

    [“Our advice to the press: Don’t seek professional safety through the even-handed, unfiltered presentation of opposing views. Which politician is telling the truth? Who is taking hostages, at what risks and to what ends?”]

  23. [It’s time for Gillard to address the issue directly.

    She should say that it’s 2012, not 2007. There’s no going back to the Howard days. The nation voted Howard out of office. Howard himself lost his seat. Past glories are gone forever. It’s a different world. That can’t be denied any longer. The only way is forward into that new world.]

    Definitely the way to go. Kelty intimated that last night. Life is going to be tougher for many and it’s got to be faced. Labor is the best Party to deal with it as they are now proving.

    I’m cheered by cat@momma’s post this morning except for the Q&A Young Lib bit. The ABC needs to look at that.

  25. Danny perhaps Pyne woke up in the morning with a hangover and thought to himself what have I done.

    Regardless of the intrigue this will in the fullness of time come down to outcomes. Comparing the two issues, Thomson and Slipper, the Slipper issue always looked like it was built on shakier ground.

  26. bh

    Audience members can take to twitter at any time about what is going on in the studio. One tweet on that behaviour by the young libs would have shut them up real quick. Bullies do not like to be seen doing their bullying.

  28. guytaur,

    Killer quote by Bradbury:

    “Mr Pyne, the man who is noted for his verbal diarrhoea on most occasions, needs to come forward and be absolutely clear and specific about the nature of his interactions and his contact with Mr Ashby,” Mr Bradbury told Sky.

  29. davidwh,

    Perhaps Pyne woke up with a smile on his face and sicpence in his hand and wondered, “What have I done?”

  30. C@tmomma at 2911. Stirring words. With people like you along side me, I know I have joined the right party at the right time. Thanks.

  32. GG

    It is proof positive to me that the change of lets all talk about Ashby when this started to Its a distraction now is a backfire for the opposition. Just why and how big is what we do not know.

  34. [It is proof positive to me that the change of lets all talk about Ashby when this started to Its a distraction now is a backfire for the opposition. Just why and how big is what we do not know.]
    Spot on.

  35. (e members can take to twitter at any time about what is going on in the studio. One tweet on that behaviour by the young libs would have shut them up real quick. Bullies do not like to be seen doing their bullying.)

    Sadly in some cases they bully and declare they are not, and switch back on the bullied

  36. Former student sues Geelong Grammar “for her failure to make the cutoff to study law at the University of Sydney, saying it did not do enough to support her learning.”

    “Ms Ashton-Weir’s mother, Elizabeth Weir, is suing the school claiming she was forced to give up her lucrative fortune cookie business to support her daughter when she moved to Sydney to finish her secondary studies.”

    Did the fortune cookies not foretell that her time at Geelong Grammar would be disastrous?

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/vic/latest/a/-/article/13707184/teen-blames-school-over-university-failures/

  37. Guytaur I think the opposition position on Slipper will become difficult if the AFP clear Slipper on the exlenses matter. I expect the government will come in hard if that’s the result. I think it is risky for them to do much until that part is resolved.

  39. Citizen,

    [Did the fortune cookies not foretell that her time at Geelong Grammar would be disastrous?]

    Thanks for posting – I meant to, but got distracted.

    Yet another egregious example of the entitlement mentality. I suspect the poor lass inherited it from her mum.

  41. Meanwhile, to remind ourselves what DIDN’T happen during the GFC here in the Land of a Well-Regulated Economy under a sage Head of Treasury and Labor Government: UK government making urgent preparations to cope with the fallout of a possible Greek exit from the single currency

    Cost of Greek exit from euro put at $1tn

    [Reports from Athens that massive sums of money were being spirited out of the country intensified concern in Whitehall about the impact of a splintering of the eurozone on a UK economy that is stuck in double-dip recession. One estimate put the cost to the eurozone of Greece making a disorderly exit from the currency at $1tn, 5% of output…

    Officials from the Bank, the Treasury and the Financial Services Authority are drawing up plans in the expectation that a Greek departure from monetary union – increasingly seen as inevitable by financial markets – could be as damaging to the global economy as the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.]

    $1tn – to put that in perspective, it’s roughly the size of the combined wealth in Oz’s superannuation funds – or what Howard & Costello used to claim was the size of the Oz Economy!

    BTW, I wonder how much of those massive sums of money … being spirited out of Greece are appearing in bank accounts – and property markets – in the Nation with the world’s second biggest (ethnic) Greek City (assuming Melbourne still is).

  43. Guytaur I agree. If the Slipper thing turns out to be a set up I think Labor’s chances of being re-elected look much more positive. A high risk strategy with more downside than upside it turns out to be the case.

    Turnbull will have a grin from ear to ear 🙂

  46. [Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP 56m
    @markjs1 Will Pyne make a full statement to Parliament and stand aside and refuse to vote in the Parliament?]

    [ Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP 52m
    @cynicq That’s been done; media adviser lost his job. Will your mate Pyne do the same, or at least stand aside?]

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