The lack of a Roy Morgan federal poll result has reduced me to flogging the Rebecca Black dead horse in search of headline. There is this, I suppose:
• A very modest Roy Morgan phone poll of 324 respondents, with a margin of error approaching 5.5%, contradicts the January-March Newspoll result in finding the WA Liberals with a landslide 62.5-37.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 53.5% for the Liberals, 3.5% for the Nationals, 29.5% for Labor and 6% for the Greens. Colin Barnett’s approval and disapproval ratings of 54% and 33.5% compare with Newspoll’s 51% and 33%, while Mark McGowan’s 36.5% and 18.5% compare with 43% and 17%. A bigger difference is recorded on preferred premier: 54-26.5 in Barnett’s favour, compared with 43-30.
• The Australian reported this week that Queensland election exit polling conducted for a private client by Liberal pollsters Crosby Textor gave Kevin Rudd ratings of 38% approval and 35% disapproval, Julia Gillard 20% approval and 60% disapproval, and Tony Abbott 30% approval and 41% disapproval.
Preselection activity remains at a high pitch:
• Clive Palmer’s prospects in his headline-grabbing pitch for LNP preselection in Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley are not being rated highly. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that 2010 candidate Rod McGarvie, “a former soldier who now works with disabled people”, is “well entrenched among the party’s branches”. There is provision in the party constitution for a centralised preselection to overrule local branches, but Tony Abbott’s pointed call for a “grassroots” candidate who would “do the hard yards, knocking on doors, going to shopping centres and talking to local newspapers” suggests it is unlikely to be invoked.
• The Greens have confirmed winemaker and University of Tasmania economist Peter Whish-Wilson will fill the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Bob Brown.
• The WA Parliament has officially confirmed Dean Smith to fill the casual vacancy created by the death of Liberal Senator Judith Adams. Debbie Guest of The Australian reports Smith was “a policy adviser to premier Richard Court and a senior adviser to Mr Howard during the 1998 election campaign”, as well as being the state party’s Treasurer and a principal of lobbying firm Smith & Duda Consulting.
• The South Australian Liberals have chosen their Senate ticket, with incumbents Cory Bernardi and Simon Birmingham confirmed in the top two positions. In third place is Anne Ruston, entrepreneur behind Ruston’s Roses, a Riverland wholesale flower-growing concern and tourism attraction. Whereas Coalition number three candidates in other states are looking well placed on present indications, the contest in South Australia will be complicated by Nick Xenophon’s bid for re-election.
• Richard Willingham of The Age reports that Jason Wood, who was unseated by Labor’s Laura Smyth at the 2010 election, is the favourite to win Liberal preselection in La Trobe.
• The Age further reports that John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said by John Ferguson of The Australian to be key figure in the Baillieu faction (and who ran unsuccessfully for preselection in Kooyong before the 2010 election), is considered likely to get the nod in Deakin. It was earlier suggested that Phil Barresi, who held the seat from 1996 until his defeat in 2007 and failed to win it back in 2010, might be interested in a comeback, and also that local councillor Tim Smith was interested.
• Also continuing to unfold is the Liberal preselection for Corangamite, which pits the narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2010, former state 7:30 Report host Sarah Henderson, against Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and one-time adviser to the Howard government. Nockles has been boosted by the public support of Senator Arthur Sinodinos, while a VexNews contributor claims Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer and Senator Scott Ryan have also weighed in in his favour.
• Zoe Edwards of the ABC reports the Tasmanian Liberal Party will preselect its Senate ticket in three weeks’ time. There is said to be a push to have David Bushby, best known for miaowing at Penny Wong during a committee hearing, demoted from the number two position to make way for a woman, although “insiders” expect him to hold on. According to the report, “Hobart Alderman Sue Hickey and the Launceston Chamber of Commerce’s Kristen Finnigan are among a swag of high-profile women considering contesting”.
• Speaking to the Glen Innes Examiner, Richard Torbay, independent member for the NSW state seat of Northern Tablelands, continued to drop hints that he might be interested in running for the Nationals against Tony Windsor in New England. Torbay says he has been approached by the Nationals, the Liberals and Katter’s Australian Party, and “if he was to accept any offer it would probably be with the Nationals”. He also speaks of his “disappointment about the trashing of the independent brand” and the defeat of independent MPs in recent state elections, which I take to mean that he blames the latter on Windsor and Rob Oakeshott. There remains the possibility that Barnaby Joyce might want the seat if Maranoa falls through for him, and National Farmers Federation president Jock Laurie has “refused to rule out a run at pre-selection”.
Further reading:
• Norm Kelly, a former Democrats MLC in the Western Australian parliament and now politics teacher at the Australian National University, offers a 191-page review of Australian electoral law and administration and prospects for its reform, freely available online.
• Australian Policy Online has published what might be the most thorough account ever offered of a federal preselection: that held by Labor for the Canberra seat of Fraser before the 2010 federal election, written by local party member Terry Giesecke. The preselection ultimately delivered a surprise win to academic economist Andrew Leigh.
• Australian Policy Online has a general account of the 2010 federal election from Sophia Fernandes and Brenton Holmes.
Finally, except when I can’t be bothered, I will henceforth be profiling a federal electorate every Friday in anticipation of the next federal election, whenever that might be. Today we look at Brand, held for Labor by Special Minister of State Gary Gray on a margin of 3.3%.
Brand covers the coastal strip in southern Perth taking in the heavy industrial zone around Kwinana, the outer metropolitan centre of Rockingham, and suburbs further south as far as the outskirts of Mandurah. Labor has held the seat since it was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, being strong in Rockingham and especially around Kwinana. However, the Liberals have sources of strength in the coastal suburbs south of Port Kennedy, and inland of Rockingham at Baldivis. Troublingly for Labor, both are areas of rapid development: between the 2001 and 2010 elections, the number of votes cast at the Baldivis booth increased from 1323 to 4338, while the Secret Harbour booth grew from 1150 to 3182. The image below shows the two-party booth results, with the font size ranging from 12-point where the number of votes was between 250 and 500 to 26-point for over 3000.
Wendy Fatin held Brand for Labor from its inception until 1996, when it served as an escape hatch for Kim Beazley after one close scrape too many in Swan. Beazley’s troubles did not end there, as his debut in Brand saw him hold on by just 387 votes, with Labor spending the week after its election defeat unsure if he would be available to assume the leadership. When Pauline Hanson reached her zenith in the lead-up to the 1998 election, some had the idea that the seat could fall to One Nation on account of its unusually articulate candidate, Lee Dawson. Dawson polled 11.9% and directed his preferences to the Liberals, but couldn’t prevent Beazley from riding an 11.1% swing to his first comfortable win since 1987.
Beazley bowed out at the 2007 election after losing the leadership to Kevin Rudd, and was succeeded as Labor candidate by Gary Gray, the party’s national secretary at the 1996 and 1998 elections and later an executive with mining giant Woodside. A figure in the Right faction, Gray was immediately promoted to parliamentary secretary and then to the outer ministry after the 2010 election as Special Minister of State and Minister for the Public Service and Integrity. His electoral performances have been broadly in line with the overall state results: in 2007 he picked up a 1.0% swing, despite the loss of Kim Beazley’s personal vote, and the swing against him in 2010 was 2.3%. Gray will again be opposed at the next election by the Liberal candidate from 2010, Donna Gordin, a Rockingham real estate agent.
may the night be kinda than your day
Night fiona
That map of Brand has at least one interesting bit – the state seats of Warnbro and Mandurah would be very marginal (possibly Liberal?) on those figures, instead of safe Labor like they actually are. There’s probably a fair few like that.
By the way, I went looking for the old WA election guide, and it seems to have vaporised. This link, for example:
http://www.pollbludger.com/wa2008/warnbro.htm
Deflationite,
Actually, I’ve just remembered that mine was a HK. And you’ve also reminded me of the time the front left wheel came off whilst driving.
But, I too loved that car.
Can’t argue with Her Maj:
[Elizabeth Windsor @Queen_UK
Very sad to see most of the people elected yesterday were politicians. ]
Think years ago treason and sedition was a hanging offence,
If I am wrong,then no matter brandis would agree with me for far less.
George Brandis feeling a little intimidated by Mark Dreyfus. George is a Special Counsel, but Mark is a Queen’s Counsel – a rarer species.
Who are the other staff members brandis refers to?
😆
George struggling…
Leveson is on
http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/house_of_commons/newsid_8167000/8167512.stm
or http://www.levesoninquiry.org.uk/hearings/
What’s the odds of doing half the liberal front bench on (d)?
One of the Eureka Stockade guys was convicted of “seditious libel”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_sedition_law
Let’s just say a hypothetical person made completely false, manufactured claims against a Labor MP to try and destabilise/change the govt.
Would that be sedition?
Core participants have to be persons (?)
Now arguing whether the government is a person.
Oh good. ModLib’s running the ‘so what’ defence. It’s a tough one to unpick on a message board, so I don’t think I’ll bother.
This, however, I’ll take issue with:
Quite aside from it being a distasteful smear, it’s an inaccurate representation. Slipper’s defection from the Abbott team is entirely Abbott’s doing. You don’t just entice someone with the promise of the speakership. Slipper was being manouevred out of parliament, and clumsily because Abbott has shocking negotiation and people-management skills. If Abbott can’t keep his team in line, that’s his business. All the ALP did was throw Slipper a lifeline. If Slipper has unanswered questions over his character from his long time on the Coalition side, that’s again their business.
The situation we have now is that the Coalition have every incentive to drive Slipper out of the Speaker’s position – both revenge and strategy are viable motives – so if there are names associated with Ashby, and if the claim by Ashby proves unsupportable, then it’s of great interest politically. Especially seeing as Ashby has wiped as much of his on-line record as he possibly can, has disappeared behind lawyers and PR agents, and is generally giving the air of having something to hide.
I’m enjoying the angle ModLib’s taking on it, and maybe he’s right that it’ll be hard to pin anything on Pyne or Brough – we’ll see how that pans out. At any rate, if Ashby ever comes out and makes a public statement on anything, maybe it’ll become a little clearer. The spotlight is already shifting from Slipper, which is probably not the way the Coalition wanted it to work.
Been despondent about the ALP since last Thursday.
I thought the only way out of it was to switch to Rudd.
After long thought, I think the ALP need to stick with Gillard even if the ALP will lose the next election. They also need to focus exclusively on policy while ignoring Abbott entirely in order to create a massive amount of cognitive dissonance for when Abbott eventually gets into office. That way, they can use the senate configuration and timing to their advantage to derail Abbott’s platform and create disillusionment from the centre via the policy vacuum that an Abbott government would inevitably bring to the nation.
Swan should also bring the carbon permit auction into this years budget in order to further Abbott proof carbon pricing. Auction off enough permits and a repeal of the policy becomes impossible (property rights, govt interference in the market etc etc etc)
Dio
The bigger question is…
Would said hypothetical person be sent to The hypothetical Tower?
… hypothetically speaking.
Dio,
I’m not familiar with those laws so I really can’t say.
Dreyfus is a very dignified and capable man. Why he is never mentioned as a potential leader? I think he’d be great.
Dreyfus runs rings around the party of abuse and dirty tricks.
[Aguirre
Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 11:09 pm | Permalink
Oh good. ModLib’s running the ‘so what’ defence. It’s a tough one to unpick on a message board, so I don’t think I’ll bother.]
Don’t let me stop you! 🙂
[All the ALP did was throw Slipper a lifeline. If Slipper has unanswered questions over his character from his long time on the Coalition side, that’s again their business.]
OK. So there is nothing wrong with offering someone a job if they did something wrong in the past?
Noyce thinking there, I like…
[I’m enjoying the angle ModLib’s taking on it, and maybe he’s right that it’ll be hard to pin anything on Pyne or Brough – we’ll see how that pans out. ]
Particularly if they haven’t done anything to be pinned with. Yes, lets see how that pans out!
spur212
As the saying goes, it aint over till the fat lady sings. A lot of politics to be played out.
On that note good night
[Slipper’s defection from the Abbott team is entirely Abbott’s doing.]
That’s stating the blindingly bloody obvious! Also one thing that has puzzled me since it happened is why :monkey: wasn’t roasted over such a huge FAIL on his part??
Everyone is getting ahead of themselves and assuming the matters raised against Slipper are without any foundation. That has yet to be determined. Im pretty certain it’s not an offence to assist a person with bringing genuine matters to the appropriate authorities.
We need to take things step by step.
Aguirre,
Interesting comments. I wasn’t aware of Ashby having wiped his online trail. Will be interesting to see what happens if the LNP do not satisfy any demands he may have.
[Been despondent about the ALP since last Thursday.]
Christ, catch up buddy, peddle faster.
Leveson has a wonderful way with the English language.
[Im pretty certain it’s not an offence to assist a person with bringing genuine matters to the appropriate authorities.]
davidwh,
Which raises questions about Tony Nutt, the Howard government, and, by implication, the motives of any current Coalition MP who may have encouraged Ashby.
Dio #163: No, I dont think any recent or current HC would or should find so.
Sedition law is a dangerous weapon, I dont believe it should be abolished but it ought to be very very tightly restricted
ML is just setting up a layered defence. On the one hand there is nothing in at all. On the other if there is something in it then it is not something that matters. If it does turn out it matters it’s all Julia Gillard’s fault, somehow. The final stage will be saying he doesn’t like Abbott anyway and it is everyone else’s fault that he is going to have to vote to make him PM. At least he is willing to raise the issue. That’s more than you can say for the ABC.
imacca
I posted a comment from the Drum today with my take on it. In short they like Abbott and think the sun shines out of his downward pointing orifice.
Sorry Bird, the old election guides are kind of out of commission – I can no longer be arsed maintaining them off-site. You can access the 2008 election guide here.
FYI Peter Whish Wilson is a superb choice from the Greens to replace Bob Brown.
Not sure how Lee Rhiannon, Sarah Hanson Young etc will take it though
MM
My understanding is that the charge of sedition is normally only considered when a country is at war.
tlbd
What was that about, pollies not wanting to sign ‘izHonour’s confidentiality agreement?
[Particularly if they haven’t done anything to be pinned with.]
Mod,
Pyne and Brough have already been pinned with a motive. That’s a very good start.
Cameron, Clegg, Cable, Hunt, Gove, May, Osborne, Clarke, all seeking #Leveson core participant status.
Core participant status means a person will be represented by a barrister and can seek to cross-examine witnesses and make opening and closing statements. He also gets to see submissions before they are made public.
[FYI Peter Whish Wilson is a superb choice from the Greens to replace Bob Brown.]
Spur212,
Agree.
a motive for what?
Dio
War?
Didn’t someone important like bolt say it was the worst day since the fall of Saigon? I though we were going to be throwing rocks at the hordes any day nnow
Puff,
They’ll sign whatever they have to. ‘sHonour was just pointing out that there have been leaks before in the inquiry.
duckie
If I was them, so would I.
sorry Dio #163, unfinished post, other bit was, clearly those who incited racist violence at Cronulla using radio and other more recent technologies would properly have been charged for sedition.
Drake
Which raises questions about Tony Nutt, the Howard government, and, by implication, the motives of any current Coalition MP who may have encouraged Ashby.
Agree , have been saying for days how can ashby mention 2003 in his allegation against the commonwealth,without being informed or coached by a liberal,hardly think slipper would have coached him about 2003.
it is “M’Lord” isn’t it?
Puffy
That was Sheridan. Something about yesterday being the worst day for the defense of Australia since Saigon fell.
Hyperbowl.
seek cps, i mean.
Oh yes, there are a lot of very brave assumptions being promoted here: the budget will be a circuit breaker for Gillard, the introduction of the carbon tax will be a success for the Gillard Government, Peter Slipper will be found to have been the innocent victim of a conspiracy perpetrated by Christopher Pyne & James Ashby, Craig Thompson will be found innocent, News Ltd will collapse completely, Abbott will be dumped as Liberal leader by the end of this year, Julia Gillard will convincingly win the next Federal election etc.
Will the Gillard faithful on Poll Bludger be proved right?
Time will tell.
Mauler
Can it be done retrospectively? No statute of limitations? Be nice to see the Parrot go to jail.
The official mode of address is “Lord Justice”.