The lack of a Roy Morgan federal poll result has reduced me to flogging the Rebecca Black dead horse in search of headline. There is this, I suppose:
• A very modest Roy Morgan phone poll of 324 respondents, with a margin of error approaching 5.5%, contradicts the January-March Newspoll result in finding the WA Liberals with a landslide 62.5-37.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 53.5% for the Liberals, 3.5% for the Nationals, 29.5% for Labor and 6% for the Greens. Colin Barnett’s approval and disapproval ratings of 54% and 33.5% compare with Newspoll’s 51% and 33%, while Mark McGowan’s 36.5% and 18.5% compare with 43% and 17%. A bigger difference is recorded on preferred premier: 54-26.5 in Barnett’s favour, compared with 43-30.
• The Australian reported this week that Queensland election exit polling conducted for a private client by Liberal pollsters Crosby Textor gave Kevin Rudd ratings of 38% approval and 35% disapproval, Julia Gillard 20% approval and 60% disapproval, and Tony Abbott 30% approval and 41% disapproval.
Preselection activity remains at a high pitch:
• Clive Palmer’s prospects in his headline-grabbing pitch for LNP preselection in Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley are not being rated highly. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that 2010 candidate Rod McGarvie, “a former soldier who now works with disabled people”, is “well entrenched among the party’s branches”. There is provision in the party constitution for a centralised preselection to overrule local branches, but Tony Abbott’s pointed call for a “grassroots” candidate who would “do the hard yards, knocking on doors, going to shopping centres and talking to local newspapers” suggests it is unlikely to be invoked.
• The Greens have confirmed winemaker and University of Tasmania economist Peter Whish-Wilson will fill the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Bob Brown.
• The WA Parliament has officially confirmed Dean Smith to fill the casual vacancy created by the death of Liberal Senator Judith Adams. Debbie Guest of The Australian reports Smith was “a policy adviser to premier Richard Court and a senior adviser to Mr Howard during the 1998 election campaign”, as well as being the state party’s Treasurer and a principal of lobbying firm Smith & Duda Consulting.
• The South Australian Liberals have chosen their Senate ticket, with incumbents Cory Bernardi and Simon Birmingham confirmed in the top two positions. In third place is Anne Ruston, entrepreneur behind Ruston’s Roses, a Riverland wholesale flower-growing concern and tourism attraction. Whereas Coalition number three candidates in other states are looking well placed on present indications, the contest in South Australia will be complicated by Nick Xenophon’s bid for re-election.
• Richard Willingham of The Age reports that Jason Wood, who was unseated by Labor’s Laura Smyth at the 2010 election, is the favourite to win Liberal preselection in La Trobe.
• The Age further reports that John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said by John Ferguson of The Australian to be key figure in the Baillieu faction (and who ran unsuccessfully for preselection in Kooyong before the 2010 election), is considered likely to get the nod in Deakin. It was earlier suggested that Phil Barresi, who held the seat from 1996 until his defeat in 2007 and failed to win it back in 2010, might be interested in a comeback, and also that local councillor Tim Smith was interested.
• Also continuing to unfold is the Liberal preselection for Corangamite, which pits the narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2010, former state 7:30 Report host Sarah Henderson, against Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and one-time adviser to the Howard government. Nockles has been boosted by the public support of Senator Arthur Sinodinos, while a VexNews contributor claims Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer and Senator Scott Ryan have also weighed in in his favour.
• Zoe Edwards of the ABC reports the Tasmanian Liberal Party will preselect its Senate ticket in three weeks’ time. There is said to be a push to have David Bushby, best known for miaowing at Penny Wong during a committee hearing, demoted from the number two position to make way for a woman, although “insiders” expect him to hold on. According to the report, “Hobart Alderman Sue Hickey and the Launceston Chamber of Commerce’s Kristen Finnigan are among a swag of high-profile women considering contesting”.
• Speaking to the Glen Innes Examiner, Richard Torbay, independent member for the NSW state seat of Northern Tablelands, continued to drop hints that he might be interested in running for the Nationals against Tony Windsor in New England. Torbay says he has been approached by the Nationals, the Liberals and Katter’s Australian Party, and “if he was to accept any offer it would probably be with the Nationals”. He also speaks of his “disappointment about the trashing of the independent brand” and the defeat of independent MPs in recent state elections, which I take to mean that he blames the latter on Windsor and Rob Oakeshott. There remains the possibility that Barnaby Joyce might want the seat if Maranoa falls through for him, and National Farmers Federation president Jock Laurie has “refused to rule out a run at pre-selection”.
Further reading:
• Norm Kelly, a former Democrats MLC in the Western Australian parliament and now politics teacher at the Australian National University, offers a 191-page review of Australian electoral law and administration and prospects for its reform, freely available online.
• Australian Policy Online has published what might be the most thorough account ever offered of a federal preselection: that held by Labor for the Canberra seat of Fraser before the 2010 federal election, written by local party member Terry Giesecke. The preselection ultimately delivered a surprise win to academic economist Andrew Leigh.
• Australian Policy Online has a general account of the 2010 federal election from Sophia Fernandes and Brenton Holmes.
Finally, except when I can’t be bothered, I will henceforth be profiling a federal electorate every Friday in anticipation of the next federal election, whenever that might be. Today we look at Brand, held for Labor by Special Minister of State Gary Gray on a margin of 3.3%.
Brand covers the coastal strip in southern Perth taking in the heavy industrial zone around Kwinana, the outer metropolitan centre of Rockingham, and suburbs further south as far as the outskirts of Mandurah. Labor has held the seat since it was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, being strong in Rockingham and especially around Kwinana. However, the Liberals have sources of strength in the coastal suburbs south of Port Kennedy, and inland of Rockingham at Baldivis. Troublingly for Labor, both are areas of rapid development: between the 2001 and 2010 elections, the number of votes cast at the Baldivis booth increased from 1323 to 4338, while the Secret Harbour booth grew from 1150 to 3182. The image below shows the two-party booth results, with the font size ranging from 12-point where the number of votes was between 250 and 500 to 26-point for over 3000.
Wendy Fatin held Brand for Labor from its inception until 1996, when it served as an escape hatch for Kim Beazley after one close scrape too many in Swan. Beazley’s troubles did not end there, as his debut in Brand saw him hold on by just 387 votes, with Labor spending the week after its election defeat unsure if he would be available to assume the leadership. When Pauline Hanson reached her zenith in the lead-up to the 1998 election, some had the idea that the seat could fall to One Nation on account of its unusually articulate candidate, Lee Dawson. Dawson polled 11.9% and directed his preferences to the Liberals, but couldn’t prevent Beazley from riding an 11.1% swing to his first comfortable win since 1987.
Beazley bowed out at the 2007 election after losing the leadership to Kevin Rudd, and was succeeded as Labor candidate by Gary Gray, the party’s national secretary at the 1996 and 1998 elections and later an executive with mining giant Woodside. A figure in the Right faction, Gray was immediately promoted to parliamentary secretary and then to the outer ministry after the 2010 election as Special Minister of State and Minister for the Public Service and Integrity. His electoral performances have been broadly in line with the overall state results: in 2007 he picked up a 1.0% swing, despite the loss of Kim Beazley’s personal vote, and the swing against him in 2010 was 2.3%. Gray will again be opposed at the next election by the Liberal candidate from 2010, Donna Gordin, a Rockingham real estate agent.
fess,
I think conservatism tends to puts men and women in stereotypical gender roles. IMO that is one reason why gay people cause them so much angst as gays do not fit neatly into the male/female gender roles. When a Liberal woman attains high status she is generally still fulfilling the assigned role fairly closely. Julie Bishop is the handmaiden/good-wife to the male leader, for example.
JB will never be leader of the liberal party.
[ confessions
Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 9:51 pm | Permalink
The WA Liberals have also preselected a Nathan Morton, who looks remarkably similar to current Mental Health MInister, Helen Morton.]
The NSW Right wanted to pre-select Ben Kenneally for Heffron. But because of the female quota they dropped in his wife Kristina instead.
Oh look, and there was nothing actually illegal about anything Grech did, either.
What was it? A few emails to himself, and a casual suggestion that favours might have been done?
I mean, the man wasn’t even charged with anything.
[guytaur
Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 9:46 pm | Permalink
ML
Politically it is a problem for Pyne. He has been doing a cover up. Hence Craig Emerson’s questions. For Pyne his best option is it was personal and he comes out of the closet. (even if he is straight). Otherwise why the cover up?]
Yes, politically it is a problem, and he has lost a few layers of skin from his shins, but he can get back on the skateboard and rock on. He will be in his position next week, I suspect, unless the drys want to try and use it to replace him with one of theirs? This would risk moderate upset so I suspect they won’t, given they have no real reason to dump him, ergo, he is safe.
[The final question is: so what? None of that is either illegal or immoral.]
OOps, ModLib. You forgot the bits he lied about (1) asking for Ashby’s phone number of someone in Queensland (Pyne was in EDST Canberra, the phoned person was in AEST Qld, (hence the 1 hr time discrepancy) – and Brough seems the likeliest candidate; (2) about sending emails – until shown copies (3) the latest version is that he didn’t email Ashby after 19 March …
Then there are these curiouser & curiouser, from some of which he backtracked:
[Mr Pyne denies having ever spoken with Mr Ashby about the alleged sexual harassment but yesterday qualified his original statement, saying: ”Even if James Ashby had raised these matters with me or anyone else, well, quite frankly he is within his rights to do so.”
The Liberal powerbroker dodged questions over whether he had ever contacted Mr Ashby by email, saying only: ”I’ve never spoken to James Ashby on the phone and I’ve never texted him on the phone.”]
Either he was blotto on 19 March after his booze session with Ashby and another staffer, or he can’t tell the truth when “cornered” by a question.
Profile of Greens Peter Whish-Wilson:
http://newmatilda.com/2012/05/04/greens-appoint-peter-whishwilson
[The Greens today appointed winemaker and economist Peter Whish-Wilson to take over from departing Senator and former Greens Leader Bob Brown. His mixture of activist and professional credentials are similar to the profile of Senators Penny Wright and Richard di Natale, who appeal to both the traditional Greens activist base and the new groundswell of inner-city professionals.
Whish-Wilson, who completed his undergraduate studies at the Australian Defence Force Academy and holds a Masters degree in economics from the University of Western Australia, has also previously worked in equity capital markets for Deutsch Bank and Merrill Lynch, where he was vice-president.
In his capacity as a lecturer Whish-Wilson established the University of Tasmania’s environmental finance course, which “includes consideration of spot, futures and derivative markets in areas such as carbon credits, fishing quotas, water rights, fuels and commodities” and “…alternative models available for financing in the debate on global climate change”.]
Mod Lib
If Slipper is cleared, he can add his numbers to the ever increasing cross bencher numbers! He won’t sit in the Chair again IMO.
Maybe not but if he is cleared that only makes him damaged liberal goods,so see no reason he should not take back the chair.
[I’m sure you won’t complain, given your comments on all matter of non-story beat ups in recent months.]
Huh?
You will need to be more specific than that Confessions, otherwise I have no idea what you are referring to.
If you just wanted to make a sweeping criticism of me without mentioning any specifics which could be shot down, then consider it “job done”!
[Maybe they are scared of getting another julie bishop.]
I can think of many worse than JBishop!
How does one explain Sophie’s continued preselection FFS.
[Schnappi
Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib
If Slipper is cleared, he can add his numbers to the ever increasing cross bencher numbers! He won’t sit in the Chair again IMO.
Maybe not but if he is cleared that only makes him damaged liberal goods,so see no reason he should not take back the chair.]
Because Gillard has managed to smear her own nest with poo, and won’t want to do it again. She has proven quite good at this actually…Unfortunately, the rest of the ALP are not going to let her get away with it again I suspect.
If you are asking whether it would be completely unfair for Slipper if he was not allowed to return to the Chair if he was cleared of all criminal and civil matters, then yes, you are right, that would be unfair.
Well within the rights of the Parliament to make this decision.
Was it unfair that a man who owes his political career to a party to then dump that party for his own personal remuneration benefit? Yes, that could be considered unfair as well, but again perfectly within the right of the Parliament to do it.
zoomstar
My understanding was gretch was not charged due to mental health problems,however he lost a cushy career.
Puff:
Strangely I always viewed JBishop as the perfect compromise candidate (if Abbott imploded), between the Howard throw-backs, and those who understand the party must move on.
Brand Pyne is finished. Sales of poodles will plummet all over Australia….
Jack Russels are booming.
bg:
It would appear Nathan is Helen’s son – his bio talks about a wife called Amanda.
The Libs could do worse than have a quota system for women. Barnett having to do secret deals with Kate Lamont after the ‘grassroots’ have already decided on a candidate, so that the party at least preselects one woman for the 2013 election is not a good look.
Puff, Confessions, Zoidlord,
RE: Thieves and lowlifes
Thanks for the comments. I must say, hanging around cemeteries with a view to stealing from the cars of mourners is right up there with the story I inked to (the details of which I will not repeat).
[Well within the rights of the Parliament to make this decision.]
Firstly, the Parliament doesn’t decide the Speaker, the House of Representatives does.
Secondly, why would the House of Representatives remove the Speaker because he has been cleared of civil and criminal fault?
Mod Lib,
could bait you ,but will restrain myself,abbott supported slippers re selection for the last election ,went to his wedding,then alleges he and the party were dumping him,so yes if he is cleared he should take the chair as he was being dumped from the liebrals,and get this HE IS NOT LABOR,and making him speaker was a brilliant political move ,reminesent of howards slimy deal with colston.Bah
Confessions
I am a big fan of quotas on boards etc. Oz boards could be sooo much better. Have no problem about one in politcal circles. I just find it amusing the KK got a gig in Parliament bc her husband couldn’t
[You will need to be more specific than that Confessions, otherwise I have no idea what you are referring to.]
Oh I think you do.
In any case, nice sidestepping of my point, which was that Pyne has now become entrapped by the very standards he’s railed against in the past.
Next up: Senator George Brandis SC.
If Tony Abbott cant control his MP’s he can’t control a government bla blah blah…
[OzPol Tragic
Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 10:04 pm | Permalink]
Pyne said he couldn’t remember asking for the contact details, but he could be wrong. It turned out he was wrong.
Big deal.
We are talking about whether or not someone asked for an email from a staffer some weeks (or was it months?) ago.
If someone had asked me about this and I couldn’t remember, I would have said what he said, then if someone showed me the email, I would have said- oh well, I must have asked for the contact details then, I just didnt remember.
Discussions with the CIA you should remember. Asking for an email several weeks ago, aint that big a deal.
I am not a fan of quotas.
bg:
Sorry, I understand.
Would the husband have ended up Premier though? 😉
I noted Bradbury on abc radio today getting repeatedly asked to comment on the specifics of what the govt leaked about the budget. He continually replied “i am not going to speculate on what is in the budget, I have seen those reports, but I am not going to speculate.”
It is a farcical thing that govts ahve done for at least a decade, but the game is way old now. You either announce or don’t.
Mod Lib
[Pyne met Ashby
Pyne asked for his contact details
Pyne contacted him
Pyne heard about Ashby’s planned court action (even if Pyne recommended it)
The final question is: so what? None of that is either illegal or immoral.]
It would have been if the charges are false or mischievously design to bring down the government. Luckily Labor amended the ridiculous 2005 anti-terrorism act to make sure it only applied to acts urging violence. Ruddock had rejected two reports that urged doing just that.
I still think that urging someone to make a vexious claim for the purpose of bringing down a lawful government is a breach of some legislation or other; but, I’m not a lawyer.
Puff:
When you don’t have quotas, this is what eventuates in mainstream parties:
http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/members-profile/state-members
Feel the diversity!
Good evening, Bludgers,
Been out and about. Trying to catch up.
How many times has Mr Payne
changed his story today?
[It is a farcical thing that govts ahve done for at least a decade]
It reeks of spin. I wish they’d either just announce the whole thing in parliament Tuesday morning, and forget about the so-called strategic leaks, and budget lock up.
It might just be the catalyst that brings the press gallery into the press gallery outside QT sessions!
[OzPolTragic, two other series (ex Beeb) that I remember with great fondness (an odd descriptor given the subject matter) were “The Lost Peace” and “The Great War”.
If anyone here can give me a link to the DVD for either/both, I would be most grateful.
If not, guess I shall have to go ferreting.]
If by The Great War you’re referring to marvellous 26-part BBC series from 1964, it’s here:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/World-War-Great-Complete-Series/dp/B0000634BA/ref=pd_sim_sbs_v_h__4/275-9639627-0148353
scringler
How many times has Mr Payne
changed his story today
you means as payne in the butt
[I still think that urging someone to make a vexious claim for the purpose of bringing down a lawful government is a breach of some legislation or other; but, I’m not a lawyer.]
If an MP is shown to have encouraged someone to make up a claim for political purposes, then that is certainly HUGE news.
What we have here is an MP talking to someone who then went on to make a claim against another MP. Lets see what happens, and if any more material comes out, but otherwise there is nothing but embarrassment for Pyne (and/or Brough). If Slipper is cleared, it still doesn’t mean that the Ashby claim was frivolous. It just means it wasn’t upheld.
Lateline Time.
[I am not a fan of quotas.]
Puuufyyyyyyyyyyy, quotas? is that a new Boys Band?
PTMD @ 101:
When a Liberal woman attains high status she is generally still fulfilling the assigned role fairly closely. Julie Bishop is the handmaiden/good-wife to the male leader, for example.
Which is why, in a nightmare scenario, Sophie Mirabella might succeed: the antipodean version of Thatcher.
@Scringler/127
The same amount that Mod Lib is diverting the issue ?
[bluegreen
Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 9:10 pm | Permalink
deflationite
Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 9:03 pm | Permalink
My car was broken into once in the La Trobe Uni car park. They stole the steering wheel lock. I thought that was an insult to my car.
Was it a Datsun 180B?
]
Holden HQ, three on the tree.
A classic now.
Bomb then.
Wooohooooo. The Chinese Dissident is going to the US. For China loss of face.
[zoidlord
Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 10:31 pm | Permalink
@Scringler/127
The same amount that Mod Lib is diverting the issue ?]
zoidlord:
You may want to workshop the next gibe before posting…just a little helpful suggestion.
Clinton press conference on now
[If by The Great War you’re referring to marvellous 26-part BBC series from 1964, it’s here]
William,
No offence, but, for a descendant of the great Ronald Oldham Doig you’re a bit, well…, nerdy.
[It reeks of spin. I wish they’d either just announce the whole thing in parliament Tuesday morning, and forget about the so-called strategic leaks, and budget lock up.
It might just be the catalyst that brings the press gallery into the press gallery outside QT sessions!]
I agree.
[Holden HQ, three on the tree.]
My very first car. I blew the rings out of it driving to Cairns from NSW. Got pulled over by the cops in Innisfail because of the blue plume of smoke coming from the engine bay. I was wearing nothing but a sarong and the bastards just stood there hysterically laughing at me.
guytaur
[Wooohooooo. The Chinese Dissident is going to the US. For China loss of face.]
Clinton’s attempt to throw him under the bus didn’t go down so well.
fiiiinnnnyyy
hello
[I still think that urging someone to make a vexious claim for the purpose of bringing down a lawful government is a breach of some legislation or other; but, I’m not a lawyer.]
Is seditious libel still on the books?
So Lateline has an economics report presented by… Idiot Iggleton, their political reporter… who predictably tells us that Joe Hockey is whingeing about cutbacks in spending on single parents, by complaining that the only thing the government can’t do is … cut back in spending.
Oh and by the way, why do we need a surplus? We’re supposed to … cut back in spending, not … cut back in spending.
All of this without the slighest hint or a flicker of irony from
Clark KentIggleton.FFS… the world’s gone mad, but with the ABC giving insanity equal time, where’s the hope?
William @ 129:
1. Thank you for unmoderating me.
2. Yes, that’s one of them. The other – The Lost Peace – covers the stupidities 1919-1939, and as far as I can remember that’s the one that the ABC screened first (1967ish), with The Great War following closely behind, so to speak. Very powerful viewing for a young adolescent.
I’m gunna bed. To BK, I hope the bruises and grazes are diminishing. Night, all.
[drake
Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 10:42 pm | Permalink
Holden HQ, three on the tree.
My very first car. I blew the rings out of it driving to Cairns from NSW. Got pulled over by the cops in Innisfail because of the blue plume of smoke coming from the engine bay. I was wearing nothing but a sarong and the bastards just stood there hysterically laughing at me.
]
Well, there was the time the timing gear broke and I had to spend the night at the Ballan Caravan Park…. and the time the wheel nuts completley stripped off and with three passengers in the car from Melbourne to Lakes Entrance I had to distribute wheelnuts across the tyres (three each) to our destination…. also the time the rear axle broke on plenty road in the middle of a busy intersection in peak hour, got a new axle put in latet that day.
I loved that car.
[Is seditious libel still on the books?]
Dio,
From Wiki:
[Schedule 7 of the Anti-Terrorism Bill (No. 2) 2005,[5] passed by the Upper House on 6 December 2005, repealed Sections 24A to 24E of the Crimes Act (1914) and reintroduced them, along with several new classes of offence, in a Division 80—Treason and sedition. Crimes in this division now attract a maximum penalty of seven years’ imprisonment.
Seditious Intention
The definition of “seditious intention” originally in Section 24A has become (as amended):
An intention to effect any of the following purposes:
(a) to bring the Sovereign into hatred or contempt;
(b) to urge disaffection against the following:
(i) the Constitution;
(ii) the Government of the Commonwealth;
(iii) either House of the Parliament;
(c) to urge another person to attempt, otherwise than by lawful means, to procure a change to any matter established by law in the Commonwealth;
(d) to promote feelings of ill-will or hostility between different groups so as to threaten the peace, order and good government of the Commonwealth. ]
Interesting…
drake
Interesting indeed