The lack of a Roy Morgan federal poll result has reduced me to flogging the Rebecca Black dead horse in search of headline. There is this, I suppose:
• A very modest Roy Morgan phone poll of 324 respondents, with a margin of error approaching 5.5%, contradicts the January-March Newspoll result in finding the WA Liberals with a landslide 62.5-37.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 53.5% for the Liberals, 3.5% for the Nationals, 29.5% for Labor and 6% for the Greens. Colin Barnett’s approval and disapproval ratings of 54% and 33.5% compare with Newspoll’s 51% and 33%, while Mark McGowan’s 36.5% and 18.5% compare with 43% and 17%. A bigger difference is recorded on preferred premier: 54-26.5 in Barnett’s favour, compared with 43-30.
• The Australian reported this week that Queensland election exit polling conducted for a private client by Liberal pollsters Crosby Textor gave Kevin Rudd ratings of 38% approval and 35% disapproval, Julia Gillard 20% approval and 60% disapproval, and Tony Abbott 30% approval and 41% disapproval.
Preselection activity remains at a high pitch:
• Clive Palmer’s prospects in his headline-grabbing pitch for LNP preselection in Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley are not being rated highly. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that 2010 candidate Rod McGarvie, “a former soldier who now works with disabled people”, is “well entrenched among the party’s branches”. There is provision in the party constitution for a centralised preselection to overrule local branches, but Tony Abbott’s pointed call for a “grassroots” candidate who would “do the hard yards, knocking on doors, going to shopping centres and talking to local newspapers” suggests it is unlikely to be invoked.
• The Greens have confirmed winemaker and University of Tasmania economist Peter Whish-Wilson will fill the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Bob Brown.
• The WA Parliament has officially confirmed Dean Smith to fill the casual vacancy created by the death of Liberal Senator Judith Adams. Debbie Guest of The Australian reports Smith was “a policy adviser to premier Richard Court and a senior adviser to Mr Howard during the 1998 election campaign”, as well as being the state party’s Treasurer and a principal of lobbying firm Smith & Duda Consulting.
• The South Australian Liberals have chosen their Senate ticket, with incumbents Cory Bernardi and Simon Birmingham confirmed in the top two positions. In third place is Anne Ruston, entrepreneur behind Ruston’s Roses, a Riverland wholesale flower-growing concern and tourism attraction. Whereas Coalition number three candidates in other states are looking well placed on present indications, the contest in South Australia will be complicated by Nick Xenophon’s bid for re-election.
• Richard Willingham of The Age reports that Jason Wood, who was unseated by Labor’s Laura Smyth at the 2010 election, is the favourite to win Liberal preselection in La Trobe.
• The Age further reports that John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said by John Ferguson of The Australian to be key figure in the Baillieu faction (and who ran unsuccessfully for preselection in Kooyong before the 2010 election), is considered likely to get the nod in Deakin. It was earlier suggested that Phil Barresi, who held the seat from 1996 until his defeat in 2007 and failed to win it back in 2010, might be interested in a comeback, and also that local councillor Tim Smith was interested.
• Also continuing to unfold is the Liberal preselection for Corangamite, which pits the narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2010, former state 7:30 Report host Sarah Henderson, against Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and one-time adviser to the Howard government. Nockles has been boosted by the public support of Senator Arthur Sinodinos, while a VexNews contributor claims Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer and Senator Scott Ryan have also weighed in in his favour.
• Zoe Edwards of the ABC reports the Tasmanian Liberal Party will preselect its Senate ticket in three weeks’ time. There is said to be a push to have David Bushby, best known for miaowing at Penny Wong during a committee hearing, demoted from the number two position to make way for a woman, although “insiders” expect him to hold on. According to the report, “Hobart Alderman Sue Hickey and the Launceston Chamber of Commerce’s Kristen Finnigan are among a swag of high-profile women considering contesting”.
• Speaking to the Glen Innes Examiner, Richard Torbay, independent member for the NSW state seat of Northern Tablelands, continued to drop hints that he might be interested in running for the Nationals against Tony Windsor in New England. Torbay says he has been approached by the Nationals, the Liberals and Katter’s Australian Party, and “if he was to accept any offer it would probably be with the Nationals”. He also speaks of his “disappointment about the trashing of the independent brand” and the defeat of independent MPs in recent state elections, which I take to mean that he blames the latter on Windsor and Rob Oakeshott. There remains the possibility that Barnaby Joyce might want the seat if Maranoa falls through for him, and National Farmers Federation president Jock Laurie has “refused to rule out a run at pre-selection”.
Further reading:
• Norm Kelly, a former Democrats MLC in the Western Australian parliament and now politics teacher at the Australian National University, offers a 191-page review of Australian electoral law and administration and prospects for its reform, freely available online.
• Australian Policy Online has published what might be the most thorough account ever offered of a federal preselection: that held by Labor for the Canberra seat of Fraser before the 2010 federal election, written by local party member Terry Giesecke. The preselection ultimately delivered a surprise win to academic economist Andrew Leigh.
• Australian Policy Online has a general account of the 2010 federal election from Sophia Fernandes and Brenton Holmes.
Finally, except when I can’t be bothered, I will henceforth be profiling a federal electorate every Friday in anticipation of the next federal election, whenever that might be. Today we look at Brand, held for Labor by Special Minister of State Gary Gray on a margin of 3.3%.
Brand covers the coastal strip in southern Perth taking in the heavy industrial zone around Kwinana, the outer metropolitan centre of Rockingham, and suburbs further south as far as the outskirts of Mandurah. Labor has held the seat since it was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, being strong in Rockingham and especially around Kwinana. However, the Liberals have sources of strength in the coastal suburbs south of Port Kennedy, and inland of Rockingham at Baldivis. Troublingly for Labor, both are areas of rapid development: between the 2001 and 2010 elections, the number of votes cast at the Baldivis booth increased from 1323 to 4338, while the Secret Harbour booth grew from 1150 to 3182. The image below shows the two-party booth results, with the font size ranging from 12-point where the number of votes was between 250 and 500 to 26-point for over 3000.
Wendy Fatin held Brand for Labor from its inception until 1996, when it served as an escape hatch for Kim Beazley after one close scrape too many in Swan. Beazley’s troubles did not end there, as his debut in Brand saw him hold on by just 387 votes, with Labor spending the week after its election defeat unsure if he would be available to assume the leadership. When Pauline Hanson reached her zenith in the lead-up to the 1998 election, some had the idea that the seat could fall to One Nation on account of its unusually articulate candidate, Lee Dawson. Dawson polled 11.9% and directed his preferences to the Liberals, but couldn’t prevent Beazley from riding an 11.1% swing to his first comfortable win since 1987.
Beazley bowed out at the 2007 election after losing the leadership to Kevin Rudd, and was succeeded as Labor candidate by Gary Gray, the party’s national secretary at the 1996 and 1998 elections and later an executive with mining giant Woodside. A figure in the Right faction, Gray was immediately promoted to parliamentary secretary and then to the outer ministry after the 2010 election as Special Minister of State and Minister for the Public Service and Integrity. His electoral performances have been broadly in line with the overall state results: in 2007 he picked up a 1.0% swing, despite the loss of Kim Beazley’s personal vote, and the swing against him in 2010 was 2.3%. Gray will again be opposed at the next election by the Liberal candidate from 2010, Donna Gordin, a Rockingham real estate agent.
[Gillard one move short of checkmate
BY: GRAHAM RICHARDSON From: The Australian May 03, 2012 8:28PM 50 comments
ANOTHER Sunday, another disaster. Sitting on the lounge at home on Sunday morning sipping a much needed cup of tea, I was anticipating a positive press conference from Julia Gillard.]
I’m guessing this didn’t get a very good response here?
Sounds like some in the ALP are looking for the elusive Plan B. Unfortunately, Plan B was well and truly neutralised in Feb…
So what happens now?
mari
Lucky you! Dashed off your Powerball Jackpot winnings, I’ll bet!
This week, I’ve had 2 telling me to check “my criminal record” (attached). Weird, eh? I wonder how many they catch with that? Plus 5 (this morning) offering “support” ie gambling money 😀 I love spam folders!
btw does anyone recall Abbott and his weasel words “to my knowledge, no Canberra coalition members helped Ashby, “
Mod Lib
Tell me you are only jesting by quoting Richardson? If you are serious…nah…not possible.
@Mod Lib/50
You never learn, media want blood, they then get blood money from selling their paper.
Ozpol
I had a couple headed ‘arrest record’. I must sleepwalk or something.
Psyclaw
I thought it was interesting that on the day of the police raid, the police stated that in relation to Thomson they were not pursuing criminal activity.
Yet, unbelievably, Jackson stood on the media pulpit contradicting the police statements & not one, not one friggin media outlet called her on it.
victoria
Remember?
I had his words burnt into a wooden plank and nailed up in the town square. 😉
so what day next week will the Ashby thing blow up?
[Instead of Rebbecca hows this for a Headline. 😉
Sexual assault allegations, underage binge drinking and gross acts of indecency have rocked WA’s most prestigious university and prompted crisis meetings about the future of student orientation camps.
The University of Western Australia’s vice-chancellor Paul Johnson said no “official complaints” had been made to the university, but he was aware of the “binge drinking, peer pressure, bullying, and inappropriate sexual behaviour”.
“This type of behaviour is totally abhorrent,” Professor Johnson said.
“If under-age drinking and the sale and service of alcohol to under-18s cannot be regulated and enforced then camps cannot be open to 17-year-old students.”
Professor Johnson has also threatened to withdraw funding to the Guild.
See the full story in tomorrow’s The Weekend West, including the debauched world of an orientation camp for first-year students]
Glad to see nothing has changed in 30 years.
They want blood, and more importantly, they can smell blood.
It is just a question of time and more importantly: WHO.
That is the question that I find most interesting. She cannot surrender to Rudd, which was my suggestion a year ago, after what she said in Feb.
The young up and comers are unlikely to want to poison their chalices.
The old and run down might have to step into the breach to minimise the disaster, and then they can resign and leave it to a newbie to fight back to a contestable position…
decisions, decisions…
Mm
Wednesday of course. That would bury the budget for the General Public not following politics.
Wonder Why?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/may/04/leveson-inquiry-rebekahwade
[Unfortunately, Plan B was well and truly neutralised in Feb…]
Nyaah! That was plan D (for “Drubbing”).
Plan B is “Tough it out: because, inevitably, some Liberal loonies, whose creative index is Absolute Zero, will think reprising Utegate (this time targeting Peter Slipper using a very slightly tweaked version same stuff used on him in 2003) is a well-devised “cunning plan!”
Note: No disrespect to Baldrick, Plan B is working a treat!
[Sounds like some in the ALP are looking for the elusive Plan B. Unfortunately, Plan B was well and truly neutralised in Feb…
So what happens now?]
You keep on coming out with this BS. If they want to make a change eventually they will make it. They may not even need a plan B.
[The old and run down might have to step into the breach to minimise the disaster, and then they can resign and leave it to a newbie to fight back to a contestable position…]
As long as you don’t mean Crean 😮
Mod Lib
Yeah the govt do smell blood. Who is going down Pyne, Abbott??? Will be interesting to see
Re my windfall coming
Think I will fly First Class now, as soon as I contact the Pastor, you always trust a pastor can’t you, plus a barrister to boot. No Puff sorry not donating the the Liberal Party benevolent $70 billion black hole, but of course would share with my PB friends, just send your bank details to me over in the Bahamas and I will immediately send your portion
Ml/60
Good description of Liberal problems after Abbott has to resign.
Labor would be absolutely delighted if the Libs ran Jason Wood again in La Trobe. Probably the biggest blockhead elected to Parliament in recent years.
Nice “look over there” tactics ML.
@Mod Lib/60
I’d say it’s alot of hoopla.
[Mod Lib
Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 9:31 pm | Permalink
They want blood, and more importantly, they can smell blood.
It is just a question of time and more importantly: WHO.]
Well at the moment my money is on Pyne, although there is now a late runner Brough, but watch out for the “fast” runner coming up the middle by the name of Abbott
[so what day next week will the Ashby thing blow up?]
Probably whatever time Tuesday Slipper addresses the HoR from the Chair – under Parliamentary privilege – and tips the great big dunny can.
middle man
It’s in Rabbott’s best interests to nail Brough.
Coalition heavy weights were touting Brough as the next great leader after Howard and I have no doubt that if he was parachuted back into fed politics Rabbott would be gone.
So, whose doing the slow drip feed on the Ashby affair?
so a tough budget completely overshadowed by a massive Lib implosion?? wouldn’t be the worse thing that could happen.
The WA Liberal party website still has Wilson Tuckey named as the Member for O’Connor.
You’d think they’d want to move on after his Unhinging, but apparently they are still happy to have him in the fold.
OPT very good point. I forgot about that. (we need a hands rubbing together emoticon)
mari
Schnappi says: You mean Glen?
mari: Sure Do,LOL,lewis in a bunker with Sen Milne.
Oh You Are Arwful.
Dee. also a good point.
i spent the day sitting next to an ex-Lib staffer for ex PM and last 3 LOTO. was a fun chat 😉
mari
I’ve got a boxed trifecta on Pyne, Abbott and Brough.
Jeeeebuzzz Mod. Easy on the cool aid. I’d say we’re about 72 hours from ashby exploding in your face. What is your plan B.
I am not sure there is any meat on the Pyne story actually.
Even if we make the following assumptions:
Pyne met Ashby
Pyne asked for his contact details
Pyne contacted him
Pyne heard about Ashby’s planned court action (even if Pyne recommended it)
The final question is: so what? None of that is either illegal or immoral.
Ditto for Brough.
The only problem would arise if there was some evidence either Pyne or Brough asked Ashby to concoct a story about Slipper to discredit him. In that case, there would be flames. At the moment there is barely any smoke.
BG #45 – Roger Wilkins would be the Secretary most likely, I think … actually most likely to write it in German and then translate into various other languages with trick variations to trap the unwary.
Modlib
Exactly. It also depends on whether the Fed Police or Court in the civil case find there is anything to the legal claims.
[Psephos
Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 9:34 pm | Permalink
Labor would be absolutely delighted if the Libs ran Jason Wood again in La Trobe. Probably the biggest blockhead elected to Parliament in recent years.]
There was quite a bit of competition from the class of 2010
Mod Lib
But what if slipper is cleared of cabgate,the civil charge even appears pissweak even without it.
You remember that prestigious rightwing thinktank, The Heartland Institute, which has a mirror in OZ in the form of that our prestigious rightwing thinktank the IPA with its chamber pot under the bed called The Liberal Party?
Well, they have been edumacatin’ Americans again, nice fellas they be.
[ The Heartland Institute has launched a billboard campaign that compares people who acknowledge the scientific consensus on global warming to criminals and terrorists, such as Unabomber Ted Kaczynski. The Institute, a right-wing “think tank” funded by, among others, billionaire right-wing activists David and and Charles Koch, explains how the people featured on the billboards were selected:
“The billboard series features Ted Kaczynski, the infamous Unabomber; Charles Manson, a mass murderer; and Fidel Castro, a tyrant. Other global warming alarmists who may appear on future billboards include Osama bin Laden and James J. Lee (who took hostages inside the headquarters of the Discovery Channel in 2010).” The Institute notes, “what these murderers and madmen have said differs very little from what spokespersons for the United Nations, journalists for the “mainstream” media, and liberal politicians say about global warming.”
The Heartland Institute is clearly attempting to sway people into thinking that those who accept that global warming is happening are marginal kooks: “The point is that believing in global warming is not “mainstream,” smart, or sophisticated. … The people who still believe in man-made global warming are mostly on the radical fringe of society. This is why the most prominent advocates of global warming aren’t scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen.”
Read more: http://www.care2.com/causes/global-warming-believers-equated-with-unabomber-by-heartland-institute.html#ixzz1ttrjQgQs ]
The newly-preselected WA Liberal candidate for Albany on his electorate:
[Albany is a great place to live, work and shop and Trevor knows that more can be done to make our community a better place to live. Trevor will be fighting to make sure that a tough stance against criminals continues, to protect our community and its members.]
http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/state/about-trevor
‘Tough on criminals’ has nothing to do with it, as this article identifies:
[Senior Sergeant Peter McLean, said the 2.8 per cent drop in burglaries to April was a direct result of improved community engagement, strategic policing and technology.]
Including better youth engagement programs delivered through the Albany PCYC, proving that ‘tough on crime’ stuff isn’t the panacea Liberals seem to think it is.
[He said January this year had a 20 per cent decrease in burglaries compared to 2011, traditionally the month when thieves strike most.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/regional/great-southern/a/-/news/13602780/drop-in-burglaries-earns-praise/
According to his bio on the website, Trevor served for 7 years in WA Police. Seems he left too early.
ML
Politically it is a problem for Pyne. He has been doing a cover up. Hence Craig Emerson’s questions. For Pyne his best option is it was personal and he comes out of the closet. (even if he is straight). Otherwise why the cover up?
[I had a couple headed ‘arrest record’. I must sleepwalk or something.]
Ah, Puff, I put it down to Advanced Age and Senior Moment Black Holes. I hope I remember where I stashed the loot my nice young Toy Boy helped me win on the pokies. I put it in “a safe place” and we all know what that means ….
[ None of that is either illegal or immoral.]
As guytaur says, then, why cover up?
Guytaur,
You are suggesting Pyne could ‘come out’ as cover even if he is straight? I would be horrified if I wasn’t rofl at the thought.
[Schnappi
Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 9:39 pm | Permalink
mari
Schnappi says: You mean Glen?
mari: Sure Do,LOL,lewis in a bunker with Sen Milne.
Oh You Are Arwful.]
Thought you would like it, perhaps I could also send in the latest hot girl I have been offered on Twitter in as well? You have really got the hang of Twitter now
[Dan Gulberry
Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 9:40 pm | Permalink
mari
I’ve got a boxed trifecta on Pyne, Abbott and Brough.]
Sounds good glad you got it before the “smart” money goes on and the odds are blown out of the water
The WA Liberals have also preselected a Nathan Morton, who looks remarkably similar to current Mental Health MInister, Helen Morton.
Aside from the insularity, why is it so hard for women to get a go in today’s Liberal party? Why do today’s Liberals seem to hate women so much?
[I am not sure there is any meat on the Pyne story actually.]
It matters not. The new confected-outrage benchmark set, ironically by Liberals like Pyne himself now demand that something be made out of anything, however innocuous it may appear.
I’m sure you won’t complain, given your comments on all matter of non-story beat ups in recent months.
confessions
Maybe they are scared of getting another julie bishop.
[Maybe they are scared of getting another julie bishop.]
And they’ve also got the lovely Michaelia Cash.
[Schnappi
Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 9:44 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib
But what if slipper is cleared of cabgate,the civil charge even appears pissweak even without it.]
If Slipper is cleared, he can add his numbers to the ever increasing cross bencher numbers! He won’t sit in the Chair again IMO.
BK
How remiss of me ,forgot as I always try to, the one and only who looks like two liberals,sophie mirrabella