Morgan’s latest weekly face-to-face poll has the Labor primary vote falling a point on last week to 30 per cent, which I believe to be an all-time low in a series noted for being biased in their favour. The Coalition is up one to 47.5 per cent, with the Greens down half to 12 per cent. Labor has improved slightly on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, on which the Coalition leads 58.5-41.5 (59.5-40.5), but gone backwards on the methodologically preferable previous election measure (from 55-45 to 56-44).
dtt
why, what could I have done?
According to the last Essential poll, just as many Labor voters prefer Gillard over Rudd as do Coalition voters prefer Abbott over Turnbull.
An absolutely disgraceful figure for Abbott given that he is never scrutinised and is protected by main stream media.
Anybody able to see anything positive for the PM in the monthly analyis of the polling on Insiders this morning?
ness here they go again,.
http://m.wisegeek.com/what-is-concern-trolling.htm
I’m of the view that it will be Gillard & Abbott going into the next election. I wonder if I can get a bet on that covers that combined outcome. I know you can for each individually.
Re Abbott, even if polls went down for the Coalition later in the term, I don’t think they have it in them to change despite the policy & wild promises problem.
Ian @ 2889
Split my sides laughing… 😆
Always pictured you as such a gentle soul and couldn’t imagine you doing anything like that.
Well done! I would happily shout you a few beers if the RSL was in my area. 😀
[Yes, I agree that Thompson was very impressive today, and spoke very confidently and respectfully despite some of the smart alec questions thrown at him.]
It was beyond smart alec questioning, though. They were clearly pissed off that he wasn’t dumping on Gillard. It was what they were there for and when he refused to play along they started to get a bit ansty.
This is NOT the way an independent media behaves …
Yep, she is Prime Minister and Tony Abbott isn’t.
bemused
what a surprise. Always an excuse for your disloyalty.
Oh, and for the record, dtt – I rang a Senator on the day Rudd was rolled and told him that what was happening was madness.
That was, however, an opinion based on lack of knowledge.
In the light of things I have learnt since, and Rudd’s own behaviour (I point out, again, that no one in the know, not one of his supporters, has denied the claims made about him, and his own wife reinforced some of them) means that I have changed my view of that.
[bemused
Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 5:04 pm | Permalink
…
You got the concern bit right. I am deeply concerned to see that Tony Abbott never becomes PM.]
You have to get over it bemused, Labor has implemented policies that have upset the rich and powerful. Mining tax, carbon trading and plain packaging, to mention the ones I think are causing the most trouble for them.
Labor has done something. Changing leaders is not going to calm the savage beast.
And bemused, Rudd lost the vote, seriously lost the vote, he won’t be drafted by no-one. So if your truly are a card carry member (which I don’t believe you are) you really only have one choice. support the current leader.
I suspect those in the know are supporting her because they know what they have done, implemented policy that will be good for the country in the long term, it seems to be the tradition of good labor Governments, change the country (for the better I might add) upset the rich and powerful and get voted out.
Pyne on abc 24 just now,says the liberals take no blame for the brutal parliament since election,wonder how many old dears dropped their teacups.
As usual the PM is to blame,ROFL.
bemused
[You overstate your case. I have made favourable comments about JG when she has done something well.
But what I and others here think is nowhere near as important as broader perceptions among the wider community. The objective facts there are that she is distrusted by 75% of the electorate and is less popular than Tony Abbott who is rightly disparaged here.
Is that a launching platform for victory in 2013? The ALPs best chance lies not with JG as leader.]
Surely you jest!
Just look at what you have written.
The patronising “I have made favourable comments about JG when she has done something well.”
Really? What do you want?
A medal? Or a chest to pin it on?
I never said one unfavourable word about Rudd while he was leader. NOT ONE.
Where the fk do you think the broader perceptions of the community are coming from?
Where? The shite absolutely rammed down their throats from the Murdoch press, and through the Murdoch press – who set the daily agenda – other outlets like Fairfax and the ABC.
And then regurgitated by the likes of you and DTT. Because you are still smarting over an episode that happened almost 2 years ago – and you didn’t agree with it.
Did you both behave like this when Keating toppled the very popular Hawke?
And then there’s your clincher: You don’t believe JG can lead Labor to victory in 2013.
Well, der,
As I said, with friends like you, who needs enemies.
and you wonder why you’re called on it.
Ian,
Though I know it came at a cost of your entertainment, I have to say I haven’t laughed so hard in such a long time.
Thank you!
Why isnt wilkie calling abbott to stand down, for the integrity of the parliament, abbott holds an high profile office and civil against is being taken against him
Artful concern trolling involves developing a believable persona as a supporter of a cause who has legitimate concerns. In an example of concern trolling, a group of people might be having a political discussion on a website about a candidate they support. The concern troll would log on and say “I’m concerned that this candidate might not be strong enough to beat the opposition,” or “I’m worried that the candidate’s history in the legislature might be a problem in the election.”
Ads by Google http://m.wisegeek.com/what-is-concern-trolling.htm
The above is on the site , what a co incidence
YOU GO IAN!!!
I am of the opinion that you haven’t lived until you’ve been thrown out of an RSL.
Can’t agree with the grog thing, though. I say push the boat all the way out! Alcoholism or bust!!! 😆
[I must say Thomson has been very classy today.]
Moreso than yourself, Diogenes, I would suggest.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/04/27/morgan-face-to-face-58-5-41-5-to-coalition/comment-page-49/#comment-1234676
Good to see L Bourke give Pyne a hard time.
Maybe the PM should mention fiction and groupthink more often.
not sure I agree Thomson was all that good today, not that he was bad – why didn’t he just say it was the PM’s call for him to step down??? – channel 7 is reporting it as that now anyway and it seems obvious that it was
Feeney – Joakshot and Whinger won’t ever vote themselves out of parliament. There is nothign to fear from them. Death, bankruptcy or convictions are the threat to the current Gov and teh current Gov is the threat to reelection.
[o but after about the 30th try at Ruddstorations, the people that matter in the Labor party had a vote, and Rudd lost, seriously lost. As they are close to the action and your not. My guess is you a seriously delusional. It might be smart to find out why they voted against Rudd, assuming your not of cause a concern Troll, which is the bucket I put you in long ago.]
That comment demonstrated pure extreme self-indulgence. Pure, absolute selfishness.
The selfish pleasure they obviously get from adulating gillard is at the expense of giving Australia an Abbott Govt and Senate. They would rather have Abbott do his entire will on the public in order they can keep their girl on a pedestal, and not face the fact that this would be the very action that gives us Abbott.
These people care not one whit about Labor or the public. It is blindingly obvious, so obvious in fact that it cannot be denied, that gillard will lose the next election, and very possible lose big time.
The mindset of the gillard cultists here ( and thats what they must now be called) is that of a losing gambler at a casino. Having lost one bet, they keep on doubling up in the belief they will eventually win…and of course they bankrupt themselves first.
AND here the are gambling with the polls, doubling up on risk of loss at each and every poll, as elections draw closer. But they hope for the miracle of the gambler that luck will give them a final victory at one minute to midnight. It is like an addiction, or a religious cult, totally irrational in every way.
They try to tell themselves that nobody else could do the job she has, when in fact most leaders would have achieved pretty much the same. The kid themselves that what they see that Labor has done is somehow so super special that public will raise singing glory unto god in the highest. When in fact is just same old same old in the public’s eye.
BUT to make matters worse the anti-christ (anti-gillard), the 666 of Gillard Labor factional power brokers and supporters, is the very person who would give Labor the very best chance of saving lots of furniture, and possibly if the cards fell right snatching a last minute victory.
But the medicine is one they have an irrational philosophical hatred of. They are the relitious folk who refuse their child a blood transfusion that would save their life. They would rather the death than go against their most precious ‘beliefs’.
Wonder why I contemptuous of most of you.
If the Coalition spent as much time working on policy as they do working on political talking points then this parliament would be much better served.
Why isnt wilkie calling abbott to stand down, for the integrity of the parliament, abbott holds an high profile office and civil action against abbott is being taken against him
(sted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Permalink
Why isnt wilkie calling abbott to stand down, for the integrity of the parliament, abbott holds an high profile office and civil against is being taken aa)
Friendly email megurie he may not know 🙂 🙂
joe
Sometimes you have to call it how you see it.
And I think Labor is farked (at the next election).
[But the medicine is one they have an irrational philosophical hatred of. They are the relitious folk who refuse their child a blood transfusion that would save their life. They would rather the death than go against their most precious ‘beliefs’.]
TP,
Gillard 71 – Rudd 31
[Interesting post but rather disappointing. The ‘wider community’ does not follow PB. Sorry to have to inform you of that.]
What are you talking about Bemused? The majority of Labor voters prefer Gilard to Rudd. In fact by virtually the same margin that Coalition voters prefer Abbott to Turnbull.
Maybe if you changed your medication and read post 2884 again it may not seem so disappointing to you.
[Anybody able to see anything positive for the PM in the monthly analyis of the polling on Insiders this morning?]
I did note that Andrew Catsaras’s opinion, after talking about competence ratings, mentioned that he thought how the carbon package is implemented & received later this year & next will be the deciding factor in those perceptions, and so influence the overall result. Similar to some views expressed here including my own.
Pyne was allowed to waffle and put out misinformation.
[why didn’t he just say it was the PM’s call for him to step down???]
I think he made an assumption – probably correct – about the way they would report it if he did.
[Interesting post but rather disappointing. The ‘wider community’ does not follow PB. ]
bemused – glad you’re not in our Branch. We don’t stand for gloom and doom. We just get on with talking about the positives of the Party and give credit to JG for the policy work being done. There’s no time to rant on about leadership issues.
BTW – Carr is doing a quietly sensible job as FM. He is not a show pony so is not seeking the limelight at every turn. FA is best done as quietly as possible without any big noting.
Downer used to get my wick at times but I don’t think he will ever call Bob Carr ‘vain’ in the FM job. I do, however, think that Carr will not translate into votes in NSW
YAWN
Post 2921, what a waste of time and space!
Puff
Sorry I should have said tough on Pyne by L Bourke Standards.
zoomster @ 2909
You are starting to sound a bit like GG.
I have not attacked JG, I have merely commented on what published polls reveal and the implications.
On the other hand KR has been subjected to the most vicious and mendacious attacks both here and through the MSM.
I wonder where you have got your knowledge of Rudd from? Perhaps those behind the June 2010 coup who have to justify their actions?
So the bloke did his block a few times and actually swore. Well goodness me! What precious little petals there must be in Caucus. Other PMs like PJK have been exactly the same I believe.
Leroy @ 2905, ask the betting agency for it, you will be accomidated.
[Conservationist Geek @geeksrulz
Pyne says that they set out to deliver a kinder and gentler polity and they have. #abcnews24]
really? Did Pyne say in what way they have delivered this?
fredn @ 2910
By that logic Rudd would never have been deposed. But he was.
I have been an ALP member for over 40 years and am now a “Life Member”. Get William to send me your email address and I will send you a scanned pic of my membership card.
[Thomas. Paine
Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 5:16 pm | Permalink
….
They try to tell themselves that nobody else could do the job she has, when in fact most leaders would have achieved pretty much the same. …]
Well she got the carbon tax up, Rudd didn’t, she got the mining tax up, Rudd didn’t, she got the pain packaging up, Rudd didn’t. She did it from the position of minority government, with Rudd causing as much damage as he could.
I think she has done ok.
My say @ 2924
email sent it will be interesting if i hear anything back from wilkie
i doubt it though
Bh/2935
Someone should ask Pyne. Gentler than what? Syria?
Thomas Paine @2921 – it appears that the Gillard supporters are numerically illiterate.
Fortunately the Coalition has learnt it’s lesson with the WorkChoices experience so that once it gets control of the Senate they won’t go too over the top with the policy direction.
At least three terms for the next Coalition government at the moment, unless the polls get worse for the ALP.
I wonder how long until the Greens start to wise up and adjust their policy demands of the ALP?
That would be the fifty motions to suspend standing orders, the abuse of question time, the refusal to grant pairs …
Feeney
The media is ‘all’ important.
Feeney
The media is ‘all’ important.
I’d hate to see a harsh and combative polity BH. This has been an ugly period of politics all round.
Guytaur,
Yes, it was tough by Latika standards, she didn’t drool on his shoes this time.
[Thomas Paine @2921 – it appears that the Gillard supporters are numerically illiterate.]
like 71 is less than 31 for example?
A week is considered a long time in politics and Diogenes, with predictive powers obviously beyond normal mortals, is happy to call it for the Fibs 17 months out.
Hold your horses, I would suggest, ye doubters.
Still plenty of time for Tones to implode, just like Malcolm did with utegate and many others interesting possibilities with Rupert so close to collapse, for instance.
bemused
I do not want to get into Rudd bashing.
The most serious – unforgiveable, and undenied by any of his supporters in caucus – accusation made against him is that he conspired with vested interests to overturn Labor policy and legislation if he became PM again.
Perhaaps one reason wilkie is not censuring abbott,is abbott has promised to give wilkie liberal preferences at the next election,only way wilkie could get re elected.
But only a fool would trust anything abbott says.