Morgan face-to-face: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition

Morgan’s latest weekly face-to-face poll has the Labor primary vote falling a point on last week to 30 per cent, which I believe to be an all-time low in a series noted for being biased in their favour. The Coalition is up one to 47.5 per cent, with the Greens down half to 12 per cent. Labor has improved slightly on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, on which the Coalition leads 58.5-41.5 (59.5-40.5), but gone backwards on the methodologically preferable previous election measure (from 55-45 to 56-44).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,317 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition”

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  3. [BernardKeane Great to see the media applying the same forensic analysis it brings to bear on important policy issues to Cabcharge dockets.
    about 4 hours ago]

  4. [victoria
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 2:53 pm | Permalink
    bg

    I reckon when JG gets back from her overseas trip she should hand the keys over to Abbott
    ]

    I know you are taking the mickey. She should look into her soul and work out what she really wants to achieve. Then pull out all the stops and talk to the Australian people about it. Long form interviews. All long-form interviews, whether it at three in the morning or an interview on the Circle on Channel 10.

    She has to talk. She has to persuade. She has to convince,

    No press conference is ever going to do that.

  8. Nah! I want to see Rabbott make an actual budget reply speech this year.

    Said it before and will say it again. Don’t look to the polling to be anything like encouraging for the ALP till Aug / Sept 2012. If it goes up earlier, great, but i dont think it will.

  9. [Miranda Devine ‏ @mirandadevine

    When government spending outstrips revenue, you’re heading for trouble: learning from Europe’s mistakes: http://bit.ly/9LRwQu

    Stephen Koukoulas Stephen Koukoulas ‏ @TheKouk

    @mirandadevine Source IMF: In the last 127 yrs, the avg of 20 advanced countries has never once had debt as low as it will peak in Aust]

  10. Press conferences are a complete waste of time. They are nothing more than potential”gotcha” opportunities. They start with the obligatory ” I’m here today with, at, to announce …” First question “PM – about the crisis today …” Bg is correct.

  11. bg

    I reckon the budget needs to pass and policy initiatives to take effect. Interest rates need to go down and then the govt can start spruiking. No point spruiking before July.
    The polls are shit, and if the election were held tomorrow based on these polls, Labor would be decimated.

  14. A very quick visit, not avoiding debate but pleeeeeze, head out of sand Gillard groupies before it’s too late. Why should Fed Labor sacrifice the possibility of Labor government for a PM who has no hope, and whose judgement is appalling and will never be allowed to get clean air for achievements, which are different in the eyes of different beholders. Others may be able to salvage the ship or at the least save some of the furniture and make some small policy shifts to take the wind out of opposition sails, but still don’t think it’s Rudd, sorry Bemused.

  15. l (and others)

    There has, IMHO, been quite a bit of somewhat deliberate (?) misinformation in relation to Koalas by a certain organisation. The result has been scarce conservation funds being diverted to a species which is nowhere near a priority compared with other threatened species. It is the old charismatic fauna trick.

    The Minister is expected to make a determination in response to a submission to have the Koal declared a threatened species under the EPBC Act by 30 April. The long and the short of it is that the Koala will probably not be declared a threatened species throughout its range but it may well be declared a threatened species in parts of its range.

    Full information about Koalas at:

    http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/nominations-fpal-extensions.html

  16. bg. or call an election. call abbotts policy bluff. ask Australians if they want to NBN scrapped? in 12-18 months the NBN it will be a fait accompli and ALP won’t have that risk to play on. ask them if they want the Navy on the high seas. as them if they want the wealthy to have a PPL. ask them of they want to walk away from 12% super.

  18. Is anybody in the least surprised? The fortnightly (to coincide with Newspolling) Labor-trashing has become so predictable.

  20. An Abbott budget reply speech – well that would be nice. He hasn’t managed to come up with one yet. This year’s will probably be the same as usual. Something like this –

    Tone – Well, that was all crap Wayne. Now I’ll hand over to Joe and he can tell you why.
    Joe – Well, that was all crap Wayne, now I’ll hand over to Andrew and he can tell you what we would do. Andrew? Andrew? Anyone seen Andrew?
    Malcolm – Bangs head on desk repeatedly.

  21. Victoria

    Actually I think it would be trecimated ie lose1/3 not 1/10.

    One month ago I would have thought that unlikely – but then the was 24 March in Qld.

  22. Yes Victoria, it’s time for governing, not time for playing Abbott’s game.

    People are going to feel richer quite soon, and things like construction that have been in the doldrums will pick up due to interest rates. Abbott will be trying to hold back a tide.

    Sometime next year will be the time to ‘flick the switch to vaudeville’ but for now let the Abbott/Media hurricane blow itself out of puff.

  23. Bluegreen @ 4
    [She has to talk. She has to persuade. She has to convince,]
    She can do none of these because the vast majority of the electorate is not listening and doesn’t want to be persuaded. They don’t like her – it’s now a matter of principle, not policy, with so many.

  24. Hi bluegreen re 4

    She has to talk. She has to persuade. She has to convince,
    No press conference is ever going to do that.

    I’ve always found Gillard’s informal performances (eg on Q&A) far superior to her set speeches – perhaps she and all other ministers need to do more community type forums?

    Re Morgan: the methodologically preferable previous election measure (from 55-45 to 56-44).

    Isn’t this effectively in line with other recent polling – that is no real change?

    F

  25. I posted this on the old thread before I realised we had moved on –

    Insiders on Sunday will have Bazza interviewing Andrew Wilkie and Rob Oakeshott. I hope Wilkie doesn’t put on that hurt, pouty look he favours, it makes him resemble Gerard Henderson.

  26. think i need to smash the glass box and reach for the bomb shelter keys… time to hide away… where’s my torch…???

  27. [victoria
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 3:00 pm | Permalink
    bg

    I reckon the budget needs to pass and policy initiatives to take effect. Interest rates need to go down and then the govt can start spruiking. No point spruiking before July.
    The polls are shit, and if the election were held tomorrow based on these polls, Labor would be decimated.]

    They can still work on the following in the meantime:
    Out of touch with ordinary people 60%
    Understands the problems facing Australia 44%
    Visionary 26%
    Superficial 52%

    Stuff the daily grind. Go spend a day working in nursing home and then tell everyone how it made you feel. Spend a day in a shop and tell everyone what you learned. Spend a day on a farm and tell everyone how hard it is?

    Invite cameras to follow you round for a day in PH.

    She has to let the people know I am one of you. I am listening to you. I know what it is like. I will go into bat for you.

  28. Mick

    Much as I like Rudd I doubt he can recover from the thrashing and trashing of February. But who else. Crean and Smith are damaged goods and Swan for the dust bin.

    Shorten made TWO avoidable blunders this week. I have always had my doubts about his performance under REAL pressure. They remain

    Combet, Tanya P are from the NSW left so unlikely. New brooms Leigh and Butler are probably too new.

  29. BW

    On koalas. Couldnt agree with you more. The Fed Committee basically said (after being asked for the thousandths time): it is probably not vulnerable but if the Government (all governments- state, fed, local) were doing nothing at all to protect it then maybe it could be just barely declared vulnerable.

  30. bluegreen

    why dont the opinion polls have polling on the coalition polices
    result would be

    Out of touch with ordinary people 85%
    Understands the problems facing Australia 5%
    Visionary 1%
    Superficial – help from newsltd 98%

  31. [middle man
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 3:01 pm | Permalink
    bg. or call an election. call abbotts policy bluff. ask Australians if they want to NBN scrapped? in 12-18 months the NBN it will be a fait accompli and ALP won’t have that risk to play on. ask them if they want the Navy on the high seas. as them if they want the wealthy to have a PPL. ask them of they want to walk away from 12% super.]

    No. Would be annihilation with the polls at present.

  33. so if they replace the PM will she get the same sympathy as Rudd? she won govt after all. i bet she wouldn’t. not one bit. she’s a woman after all.

  34. bg,

    I reckon that stuff would be counter-productive. You can get away with that as an Opposition Leader, but as the PM you’re giving away your gravitas. This was a big problem Gillard faced in 2010 – she didn’t act like a PM. She needs to stick to staying above it all, and projecting that I’m the boss thing that she’s really only started getting right since she saw off Rudd.

    The current numbers are a short term external hit. Remember Rudds numbers went down during Utegate too, and then popped back to where they were once it was exposed. Same thing will happen here.

    The whole strategy against Labor is to get them to panic. The best strategy to combat that is obviously not to panic. Gillard has time, policy, and the direction of the economy on her side. In the end that will be more than enough.

  35. Oh glorious days, how I wish these numbers would replay come election time.

    als, there is a while to go yet but with each low it will get harder and harder for Labor to claw back support. 😀

  36. Bemused

    [Was not he the labor man that Labor said would hound to his death for fleeing to the libs?}

    You mean: Was he the Senator Labor refused to endorse as Deputy President of the Senate (ie the Senate version of Slipper’s initial 2010 HoR Deputy Speaker); so Howard, hoping he’d defect, backed him for the position; so he defected? IOW, was it the earlier Howard example in the Senate of the Slipper appointment in the Reps?

    YES!

    So, given Howard created the template, how come:

    (a) Libs were so dumb they treated Slipper to worse treatment than Labor handed out to Colston; but never did figure, as they tried to bulldoze him out of his Reps seat, Slipper might follow Colston’s lead?

    (b) Libs have carried on, and are still carrying on about it the way they did? They made the template, how come they’re complaining like whining kiddies when the other side uses it?

  37. [daretotread
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 3:00 pm | Permalink
    Hmmmmmm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!]
    And on cue in comes the Labor head-in-hands tragic.

    DTT, yesterday I spent the afternoon manufacturing a pair of glasses for you.

    This is what they do.

    As soon as you put them on, the picture you see of Julia Gillard with a red circle and a red diagonal line transforms into a picture of JG with a happy smile and a great big tick next to it.

    But wait, there’s more:

    there’s also a piccy of Kevin Rudd; he’s walking walking away and very happy.

    The prescription for these glasses is very simple:

    WEAR THEM EVERY DAY FOR A WEEK and you’ll start to be happy again.
    If you relapse, continue for another week
    And so on.

    I’ve applied for the patent.
    But have about 20 on hand for those PBers who have succumbed to the msm.
    Orders can be directed to:
    http://www.getoveritandgetonwithit.com.au

  39. [She can do none of these because the vast majority of the electorate is not listening and doesn’t want to be persuaded. They don’t like her – it’s now a matter of principle, not policy, with so many.]

    They really don’t like her. I agree. But she has to try something. And at the moment an image makeover is a good first step.

    She has never talked about herself. We live in a world where this is now expected. Its time for her to open up.

  40. bg. you dont think an election would get Australians to sit up and take notice of the policies on offer? if an election won’t another 12 months of having sh*t thrown at them won’t either.

  41. Chill, folks.

    The Independents have 16 months worth of making a difference before they are either swept away in the maelstrom or relegated to curiousity value on the cross benches.

    IMHO they are not going to chuck that away lightly.

  42. DTT @28
    I regularly trot out the names, Smith, Combet as good replacements who the public still trust and they can also make slight changes and tell it like it is … we’ve listened! My other pick is Roxon and I have a soft-spot for Martin Ferguson but he’s not really PM material.

  43. I don’t think it’s in the Coalition’s interest to stop the NBN. Most of the party know its positives and its construction is already well and truly progressing.

  44. bg

    Dont agree. JG can talk till the cows come home. No one is listening.

    When interest rates go down
    Carbon price is in effect and compo paid
    Tax cuts for small business and
    Tax free threshold come into effect
    These tangible things will garner support. It is that simple

  46. boerwar. i agree that the indies won’t give Abbott what he wants nor will they cause an election. i’m not sure even they know what fate awaits them come an election.

  48. Quoting from the last thread:

    [Hey did the ALP just release an Aged-care policy to wide acclaim last week?

    Why aren’t they selling it?]

    They’re given no chance *to* sell it. That’s the whole point of all the Slipper crap.

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