Morgan face-to-face: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition

Morgan’s latest weekly face-to-face poll has the Labor primary vote falling a point on last week to 30 per cent, which I believe to be an all-time low in a series noted for being biased in their favour. The Coalition is up one to 47.5 per cent, with the Greens down half to 12 per cent. Labor has improved slightly on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, on which the Coalition leads 58.5-41.5 (59.5-40.5), but gone backwards on the methodologically preferable previous election measure (from 55-45 to 56-44).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,317 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [Wonder why I contemptuous of most of you.]

    Thomas, my contempt is only reserved for you because you are full of hatred

  2. kezza2 @ 2912

    …Where the fk do you think the broader perceptions of the community are coming from?
    Where? The shite absolutely rammed down their throats from the Murdoch press, and through the Murdoch press – who set the daily agenda – other outlets like Fairfax and the ABC…

    Have a look at the charts Ari presented on Insiders this morning.

    It all really started with an inept 2010 campaign and rubbish like the ‘Citizens Assembly’ and ‘Real Julia’. Then followed some contradictory positions easily portrayed as ‘lies’ or suchlike. Basically self-inflicted wounds.

  3. [Why isnt wilkie calling abbott to stand down, for the integrity of the parliament, abbott holds an high profile office and civil action against abbott is being taken against him]

    Good point. Friendly Email has been sent to the man soliciting his opinion on this matter.

  4. [bemused
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    I have been an ALP member for over 40 years and am now a “Life Member”. Get William to send me your email address and I will send you a scanned pic of my membership card.]

    Ok a labor party member int he mold of Jack LI\ittle.

  5. [Good to see L Bourke give Pyne a hard time.
    Maybe the PM should mention fiction and groupthink more often.]

    guytaur – were you being cynical or did she really challenge what he said. How did she react when he said that his side wasn’t responsible for the chaotic QTs, please?

  6. [Your comment points up beautifully what Thomas Paine was seeking to make.]

    Feeney,

    excatly – some supporters of the Labor Party have difficulty focussing on who are their real opponents.

  7. Mr Rudd should be given credit for getting rid of JWH, the apology and the response to the GFC. Beyond that, I think the Romans have done more for us.

  8. Centre

    [How will all this look to the Coalition if Thomsen and Slipper are proven innocent?]

    They will ask why Gillard suspended Thomson from the Labor Party.

  9. [Pyne says that they set out to deliver a kinder and gentler polity and they have.]

    Okay; now he really is taking the piss.

    And if ANY journo ANYWHERE lets him get away with this then it just proves how bloody partisan and/or frankly frigging pathetic they are.

  10. [Perhaaps one reason wilkie is not censuring abbott,is abbott has promised to give wilkie liberal preferences at the next election,only way wilkie could get re elected.]

    There is no evidence for this silly claim, Schnappi, and you know it. Wilkie would have every reason to be offended by the suggestion he was open to that kind of bribery and let’s face it, Abbott would be too scared to try it on, in case Wilkie blabbed.

  11. Danny – ther ALP have been loading and priming the Coalitions guns for them.. Half the time they just have to sit back and watch as the Gov shoots themselves in the foot.

  12. [They will ask why Gillard suspended Thomson from the Labor Party.]

    Read Thomson’s statement instead of regurgitating rubbish. JG didn’t suspend Thomson.

  13. [They will ask why Gillard suspended Thomsen from the Labor Party.]

    And she will say, to stop the constant mud throwing from Abbott and the media and to let the government move forward with its agenda.

    It’s time for gutter games to end!

  14. bh

    Its the fact she asked the question no one else has about Mary Jo Fisher. Then followed that with some more curly ones. Yes she still has to learn how to challenge the spin

  15. [daretotread
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 4:45 pm | Permalink
    Mysay

    I think you will find that 60% of ALL labor members agree with Bemused and me.]
    I’m sick of you blowing stats out of your hatred-of-Julia-toppling-Rudd-place.

    Imagine for a moment the boot was on the other foot.
    That JG had been PM and Rudd had replaced her.

    And you card-carrying members didn’t get over it.
    That the so-called Labor membership backing JG brigade were on hand.

    WTF would you be saying then.

    FCS, get over it. Start backing JG or resign your membership.
    You are not worth it.

  16. Zoomster

    I suspect you should have trusted your own instincts in June 2010. You reacted in the same way that much of the rest of the population reacted (the LABOR and Swingers).

    As Bemused said. If the people who complained about Rudd were also the people who he judged at fault for stuff ups (and may be gave them a verbal hiding) their judgement may not be reliable.

    If it was true that Swan TOLD Rudd he has WA on side only to find AT the COAG that they were not, Swan probably got a piece of Rudd wrath. If Mr Arbib was the guy charged with the pink batts affair (not Garrett) then he may have got a very well deserved verbal hiding for NOT reading the risk assessment – and maybe Rudd stopped listening for good reason). I like Garrett but he deserved a bloody good verbal hiding for NOT reading the Risk assessment – he is a bloody lawyer and should have.

    If the factional power brokers were playing then they needed to make a case for toppling Rudd. Just possibly you have been bamboozled.

    All I know is that the MPs and Senators I respect to do NOT agree. The really smart and committed ones. I know some of the lazy, thick heads may have felt aggrieved but they harbour delusions of their own abilities.

  17. [Pyne means that they’re fairer and gentler on their own MPs.]

    Zoomster – I’m suitably chastised for believing anything other than that.

  18. Centre

    How will all this look to the Coalition if Thomsen and Slipper are proven innocent?

    Will not matter under the abbott coalition the presumption of innocence is lost forever
    it is now guilty forever even though no charges,let alone a conviction,that is how the sleaze opposition will be remembered forever,and woe to this country if the current slime oposition get elected.

  19. muttley

    Oh yeah, that’s right. Gillard got back from overseas and they both came to the same decision at the same moment after four years.

    The levels of gullibility from some here are astonishing.

  20. Pyne reckons Abbott wrote a reference for Slipper, that he did not really agree with. It was just a thing a mate does.

    OK Pyne. What happens if you employ someone based on a mates reference? Or is this standard industry practice?

  21. Kezza

    If Rudd had replaced Gillard in the same way that she replaced him I would have STRONGLY supported Gillard.

  22. [The levels of gullibility from some here are astonishing.]

    Diog, you have been gullible for the past 5 years, so what is new?

  23. zoomster @ 2949

    bemused

    I do not want to get into Rudd bashing.

    The most serious – unforgiveable, and undenied by any of his supporters in caucus – accusation made against him is that he conspired with vested interests to overturn Labor policy and legislation if he became PM again.

    Well goodness me!

    Just like Gillard is reported to have done and actually followed through on.

    A certain symmetry in those accusations.

  24. Joe2@2967

    Lol,politics make strange bedfellows,and preference deals are done all the time,your high horse is lame.

  25. muttleymcgee

    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 5:39 pm | Permalink

    They will ask why Gillard suspended Thomson from the Labor Party.

    Read Thomson’s statement instead of regurgitating rubbish. JG didn’t suspend Thomson.”

    That is belly laugh stuff.

  26. bemused

    And I note you didn’t answer the question:

    How did you react to Paul Keating toppling the popular Hawke in 1991?

    Or are you still carrying the can for Hawke?

  27. [ It is blindingly obvious, so obvious in fact that it cannot be denied, that gillard will lose the next election, and very possible lose big time. ]

    Perhaps to those who look. Not so much to those that see.

    You’re looking for a Government in trouble.

    I’m seeing the lastline of defence against a tide of corruption that will hijack, for no other reasons than avarice and empty power, the future of my grandchildren……and yours.

  28. fredn @ 2957

    Ok a labor party member int he mold of Jack LI\ittle.

    If that is a reference to who I think it is, them’s fighting words.

  29. Re: Speaker Denison’s Rule

    As noted in other posts it is just a convention. This is the case and in the heat of political battle, conventions are often ignored.

    This could very well happen with the upcoming budget vote in the reps. However it is not impossible that it could be applied by Deputy Speaker Burke so it should be kept in mind.

  30. BH@2726,
    Wtte: ‘Is there a charge against Mirabella in the courts atm?’
    Don’t know if anyone has answered this question yet(still behind the 8 Ball trying to catch up on a day full of posts), however, it is my understanding from reading an article in the press the other day(and I may have a link to it IF I bookmarked it at the time), but, having had Probate granted in her favour over old man Howard’s estate, the Howard children are Appealing the ruling and it will be back in court again.

  31. Schnappi @ 2959

    Do not understand the rudd posts ,unless you believe he is Lazarus.

    Nope. Just believe in the POSSIBILITY that eventually 21 or more members of caucus will decide that eating some humble pie is a better option than the shit sandwich of electoral defeat and an Abbott Prime Ministership.

  32. [If the factional power brokers were playing then they needed to make a case for toppling Rudd. Just possibly you have been bamboozled.

    All I know is that the MPs and Senators I respect to do NOT agree. The really smart and committed ones. I know some of the lazy, thick heads may have felt aggrieved but they harbour delusions of their own abilities.]

    DTT,

    Kevin garnered 31 votes. The members of your party that you respect number less than 31, taking away the lazy, thick heads amongst the 31. This means that well less than 30% of Labor MPs and Senators are worthy of respect. Perhaps the polls are correct after all.

  33. [Mr Rudd should be given credit for getting rid of JWH, the apology and the response to the GFC]

    And the education revolution.

    And ratifying the Kyoto Protocol.

    And the alcopops reforms.

    And the luxury car tax.

    And the increased recognition of same-sex couples in taxation, superannuation etc.

    And pension increases.

    And means-testing the baby bonus.

    And abolishing the Pacific Solution.

    And getting rid of WorkChoices.

    I’m not a huge fan of the guy or anything, but… come on now.

  34. Do we all realise what world beaters/leaders this Labor Govt has been so far. Economically going well and others wanting to follow us with the mining taxes and plain paper packaging. Even New Zealand has given up FTTN to take on our FTTH.

  35. Obviously Tone doesn’t understand what an independent is. Thomson has left the Labor Party. It is up to him how he votes in parliament. The fact that he still wants to support Labor is up to him. There is absolutely no reason for Thomson to leave the parliament. So Tone, like it or lump it.

  36. Dodgy.

    Have a look at the statement instead of talking bullsh!t.

    That’s all Abbott’s mob have – hot air and bullsh!t – they are nothings when something has to be done.

  37. Look I do not know which one of you is Mr Rudd’s plant. This Green voter is over the “Ruddstoration”. The Labor Caucus elected by a lot here voted. They made JG PM.
    So unless you are in Caucus you do not get a vote. Top pretending you do.
    Support your Prime Minister. If you think there should be a change of leader then say why you think Caucus may act. At all times remember Caucus will not vote for Rudd. Even if polls declare him to be the second coming.

  38. [daretotread
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 5:42 pm | Permalink
    Kezza

    If Rudd had replaced Gillard in the same way that she replaced him I would have STRONGLY supported Gillard.]
    Yep. Go tell it on a mountain.
    I’m sure you would have.
    To the detriment of the party.
    Sure, buddy.

    And, by the way, how did you take Keating toppling Hawke?

    And, before you start with your runaway, Keating did it the right way nonsense.
    Keating’s stoush with Hawke destabilised the party for months.

    It seems to me that because of the swift change of leadership, you and bemused are beside yourself that you didn’t have a say – nothing to do with the good of the party or allegiance to the leader.

    And you’re still sooking big time.

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