Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).

Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:

• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.

• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.

• Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,940 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  2. [You understand the claims Ashby is making here though, don’t you? He’s characterised Slipper as having utilised his office to “…foster sexual relationships with young male staff members.” And then he’s attempted to characterise the one he cites as involving sexual harassment.]

    Ashby is so distraught he’s charged Slipper with telling him he’s fat, and dis-inviting him to a Harbour cruise. The horror! He should get half a mill on those two alone.

    It gets worse. After Ashby told Slipper he was gay, Slipper asked him if he was a twink or a bear. To rub salt into the wound Ol’ Slippery signed a text message “xxx”. He touched Ashby’s arm.

    To cap it all off when Ashby asked Slipper what kind of relationship he wanted to have, Slipper told him he had no problems with a businesslike relationship, and advised Ashby to make formal appointments to see him.

    Harassment? You better believe it!

    The hide of Slipper thinking he could get away with that!

    Now Slipper’s gone and spent $500 bucks on hire cars. When Lewis wrote that the hire car company had done very well indeed out of Slipper I thought I’d see more than $500 involved. Maybe Steve dropped a zero off accidentally, like he dropped off counterfeit emails to the Liberal party, trying to peddle a scandal? Except that wasn’t accidental, as Lewis was in Utegate up to his neck, as a player.

    (Incidentally, I’d hate to be that hire car driver who “dobbed” Slipper. I doubt he’ll get any more fares in the near future… that’s if he keeps his job after speaking to Lewis… talk about crapping in your own nest!)

    And if Slipper steps down over the civil charges, as soon as he does don’t expect the floodgates to close. Every tinpot, two-bit suburban solicitor in Australia will be lobbing writs on government members, trying to empty the chamber. Numbers? We’ll fix that… just fill out the Federal Court form and email it in. No need to even turn up to the front desk. Instant resignations all round! Doesn’t even matter if it doesn’t come to court, or you lose the case: the new standard is “If there’s a writ, git.”

    This is out of control. Abbott and the egregious News Ltd are inventing modes of behaviour and standards of conduct we’ve never heard before… and will never hear of again if they ever happen to involve a Coalition MHR or Senator.

  3. [Fess @2411: How soon we forget! Kate Carnell, Rosemary Foot, Isobel Redmond are three I can think of.]

    And Chikka and the Carney woman in the NT.

    So? The Liberal party’s whole approach to women is one of indifference. ARe you arguing otherwise?

  4. [[I think Slipper is a slimeball. ]

    Based on what facts?]

    He is a Liberal Rat. That’s what guides ML and the Lib’s. They can’t see the damage they are doing to themselves.

  5. I went to the War Memorial in Canberra twice for the dawn service. An experience I cherish.

    Now, I do my remembrance in private.

    Happy for remembrance to be public but grievance should be a private thing, with friends and family if that is what you want.

    As for those who exalt in the deaths of soldiers as heroes the less said the better: they are victims and much less so than those left behind.

  6. Anyone who dumps on their party by switching to the other team having got their seat on the basis they were their party’s rep is by definition a slimeball.

  7. I think Slipper is a slimeball.

    Based on what facts?

    Duck,

    Based on the fact he used to be a good friend of Abbott.

    That is passing strange. Tony Abbott is trying to deprive his friend of job and reputation.

    Give me no crud about Tone being an innocent bystander. If you have followed the conversation here you would know otherwise.

  8. TLBD – Poor ModLib. A little country boy like me can offend?

    Genuine – ModLib, I think, would be good company. I can deal with people with different views as long as they have a bit of ‘couth’ and are somewhat smart. I can maintain manners for fun people.

    Murdoch still getting hammered …

  9. thanks Tobe

    I think I’ve said enough in past days with enough responses so cant complain. and the time is serious – not quite right time for infighting really. however, re polls. to be fair JG was installed because polls were bad. but they have been consistently poor under her. what is one to conclude: that suddenly polls dont matter. i would have thought polls have been so consistently bad that it is time for mea culpa and something radical. after all, polls have been the mantra of central right wing pragmatic labor for years. but suddenly when bad we are advised to ignore them. ostriches can’t fly with heads down.

  10. Anyone who dumps on their party by switching to the other team having got their seat on the basis they were their party’s rep is by definition a slimeball.

    If the leader of your party wants to get rid of you why would you not divorce yourself from him?

    Peter Slipper has not “switched to the other team”.

    Your analysis sometimes bears a semblance of cogency. On this particular occasion, not so.

  12. [I went to the War Memorial]

    I go once a year or so, never on ANZAC Day.

    I can put a finger on some names spread over a long period, the latest 5RAR in 1967. The lack of any recent additions works for me.

  14. Geoffry,

    Howard rarely led in the polls, he even won in ’98 with 49% of the TPP…

    Seriously, right now the polls don’t matter, about this time next year they will matter… get back to me then.

    One thing is sure, you can’t go into an election campaign with the slogan “we were always popular”… Far better to have policy you can fight for than a history of popularity…

    I might well be wrong, but I think doing stuff eventually adds up, and I think the the Liberal polling is fickle at best.

  15. Strange, isn’t it, how James’ dronings are soporific?

    He can twist and turn but there will be “Teh Leveson Report”.

  16. [Anyone who dumps on their party by switching to the other team having got their seat on the basis they were their party’s rep is by definition a slimeball.]

    Dio,

    He’s certainly not the kind of character I’d want on my team.

    Goodnight all.

  19. William,

    Ctar1 asked you to give me his e-mail address.

    I should have done it better:

    O Captain! My Captain!

    For sheer enjoyment, here is Walt Whitan:

    O Captain! my Captain! our fearful trip is done;
    The ship has weathered every rack, the prize we sought is won;
    The port is near, the bells I hear, the people all exulting,
    While follow eyes the steady keel, the vessel grim and daring:

    But O heart! heart! heart!
    O the bleeding drops of red,
    Where on the deck my Captain lies,
    Fallen cold and dead.

    O Captain! my Captain! rise up and hear the bells;
    Rise up—for you the flag is flung—for you the bugle trills;
    For you bouquets and ribboned wreaths—for you the shores a-crowding;
    For you they call, the swaying mass, their eager faces turning;

    Here Captain! dear father!
    This arm beneath your head;
    It is some dream that on the deck,
    You’ve fallen cold and dead.

    My Captain does not answer, his lips are pale and still;
    My father does not feel my arm, he has no pulse nor will;
    The ship is anchored safe and sound, its voyage closed and done;
    From fearful trip, the victor ship, comes in with object won;

    Exult, O shores, and ring, O bells!
    But I, with mournful tread,
    Walk the deck my Captain lies,

    Fallen cold and dead.

  20. Tobe

    thanks. I was talking about Labor rationale. And suggest than popularity has been too big a mantra for labor to suddenly drop it. the polls do matter – so does public opinion (do you get out and talk much?) … it is not all a product of msm (seems to tread water on this issue). 49% of TPP!! – JG will soon be at 40%. i will not be waiting to July next year thanks but no thanks – noone will. six months at most. no love will be lost if it is still 25% primary.

    but this is getting boring. noone changes mind on the list- the medium encourages assertive combativeness too much. but good place to reinforce before the big battles yet to come

  25. [Anyone who dumps on their party by switching to the other team having got their seat on the basis they were their party’s rep is by definition a slimeball.]

    Harsh. Think about people who get shafted.

  28. Brian is being very gentle.

    Joey sees an opening and spouts.

    Bad move. If you want to win a debate then you debate, not harangue.

    Mind you, if you have a losing case then you clutch at any available straw.

  30. Geoffry,

    I admit I will be interesteed in the polls in the months after the carbon price has been introduced.

    But you are again concentrating on mid-term polls, which never looked good for Howard. That factoid just seems to just keep flying over your head.

  31. deblonay

    We need to have a complete review of all national security legislation passed since 2000.

    It should also make all previous legislation into a coherent piece of law.

  39. tobe

    thanks for later night whatever – cant believe am doing this now

    its been more than mid term – its been all term poor polling.

    why do you think things will get better?

    but yes lets try to talk after july. say august.

    JG is not howard. she does not have his brazen trickery to rely on.

  41. For all:

    “Sunk” is the past participle, as in “Tony Abbott was sunk when he was questionned about his policies”.

    “Sank” is the past participle, as in”Tony Abbott sank when he was questionned about his policies”.

  42. Geoffry,

    I support her because she has got things done that I wanted done. Of course in a perfect world there are more things I want done.

    To be honest I have no idea what you want done. You just seem to whinge about someone who is getting stuff done. What do you want that Gillard isn’t giving you? Good polls is all you seem to want.

  43. Electoral facts of the day. The Coalition’s seven weakest seats are all in Melbourne, and they are stronger in their weakest Western Australian seat than they are in their strongest Tasmanian seat.

  44. “Sank” is the past participle

    No, it bloody well isn’t! It’s the past tense.

    Hits on head with bottle and goes to bed.

  47. tobe

    i thought it was no secret. i support the vast number of aussies who still prefer kr and expect he will be dragged back. sorry, that’s what i want. only chance for success

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