This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).
Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:
• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.
• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.
• Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.
James is losing it. He is arguing with Mr Jay.
TLBD – Wussey light hop lager is about it.
[I don’t think it reflects well on either.
Yet another reason for the public to laugh at pollies.]
And I suspect most people will view it that way.
CTar,
You would love it.
TLM #2433, assuming it hasnt already been snipped (I would); might be best to make clear are you criticising the standards of sydney radio there or applying for a job with Bill Heffernan …
[ I think dirt on Slipper reflects on the Lib’s more than the ALP.
I don’t think it reflects well on either.]
Dio,
Couldn’t agree more.
Gary: Labor IS going to get done at the next election – all the cheerleading for Julia Gillard won’t change that fact.
Guinness light.
Diogenes,
[ I gather that some verbal allegations of sexual harassment were made in 2003 but they never got to a formal written stage. ]
I think they were made by a female member of Slipper’s staff who made a complaint to Nutt after someone showed her a copy of a video clip of the alleged act.
She was allegedly told by Nutt to forget all about it.
I understand that the female staffer and the male staffer concerned are still in the employ of Mr Slipper.
Strange alright.
Ah, you’re still here.
You understand the claims Ashby is making here though, don’t you? He’s characterised Slipper as having utilised his office to “…foster sexual relationships with young male staff members.” And then he’s attempted to characterise the one he cites as involving sexual harassment.
He’s trying to establish a pattern. But without the harassment aspect, there is no pattern.
I know you want to restrict this discussion to what technically constitutes harassment. But I’m talking about Ashby’s claims, which clearly attempt to establish a pattern of harassment.
And it’s a consequence of the coup of June 2010.
[Gary: Labor IS going to get done at the next election – all the cheerleading for Julia Gillard won’t change that fact.]
That doesn’t excuse you as a Labor supporter in hoping it will happen. A genuine Labor supporter would be hoping the polls turn.
Thornleigh
“The problem with Poll Bludger: It’s now little more than a virtual branch meeting of Gillard lovers, who all agree with each other, and engage in increasingly fanciful wishful thinking about the imminent downfall of the Liberal Party/Tony Abbott/News Ltd/Kevin Rudd etc.
I find the self-delusion here either amusing or a little sad.”
sort of agree. who knows what cabinet members moonlight here. but it is a distinctly happy optimistic place, PB, good tonic even if a bit deluded compared with the toxic catastrophe in the real pollie universe. what would things be like if the economy was bad?
Jas. is showing his NY childhood and now looking alien. F$#ked.
I omitted that these allegations were public knowledge a while ago. Passing strange that the PB Lib fan club aren’t aware of it.
Google is your friend.
[And it’s a consequence of the coup of June 2010.]
There is a lot more to it than that.
I can’t imagine that the taxpayer will pay his legal fees.
We’re not News Ltd.
CTar,
Best way to chat to our host is pollbludger-at-crikey.com.au.
Dio,
Slipper allowed the ALP to sidestep gambling reform (for now). But since policy doesn’t seem to be the order of the day I tend to think Slippers vote for Abbott replacing Turnbull looks sticky to me.
Ashby may well have been sexually harassed irrespective of whether there was any harassment in 2003.
If there was sexual harassment in 2003, then this certainly lends weight to Ashby’s current allegations.
The point I am making is that on the information that I have seen in the public domain about 2003, there is not enough there to sustain a civil claim, let alone any criminal claim against Slipper.
If the individual from 2003 comes out, pardon the pun, and makes a statement about what happened and how he felt (whether he felt threatened or pressured for example), then that changes things entirely.
I am making no claim about Ashby, just that the material from 2003, as you posted it, does not appear to amount to sexual harassment.
Have to agree that the past few days has reflected poorly on both sides of politics.
[And it’s a consequence of the coup of June 2010.]
Hence your praying for a defeat of Labor at the next election. What a true Labor supporter you are.
Scenario:
Journo: Will you pay Peter Slipper’s court fees?
Nicola: GF!
I hope that certain individuals either lose their seats or their influence on the party is greatly diminished in future years – especially Wayne Swan, Bill Shorten, Paul Howes, Joe Ludwig(and his father), Tony Burke, Nicola Roxon, Craig Emerson.
[Aguirre
Posted Wednesday, April 25, 2012 at 12:02 am | Permalink
Ah, you’re still here.]
Permission to go to bed sir?
Dog tired, and early start and all that. We can reconvene tomorrow, no doubt there will be more material we can dissect then!
Good night.
🙂
I disagree.
@TLM/2474
No great surprises that attitude of yours.
Geoffry, you are worried about polls mid term. You want government to be popular all the time.
I want the government to implement the policies I believe in, not play some boring football game where the score is decided by polls.
TLBD – I missed the clear bit so bitter is not to my taste. I’m sounding fussy but standard Carlsberg or Becks works.
Jas. sounding dumber and dumber.
Shame ModLib seems like a ‘SYDENEY’ person because I suspect would be good company.
Tobe
Wilkie probably has the numbers now. Labor plus Wilkie plus Bandt plus casting Speaker vote, depending how you view the Speaker “independence”.
A “high standard” in terms of what? That’s a pretty sweeping (and meaningless) statement.
I hold politicians to a high standard in the dispatch of their jobs as elected representatives, and Peter Slipper is acknowledged by just about everyone to have been doing a good job as Speaker of the HoR, and that, in my mind, is pretty much that if nothing criminal was going on.
Our politicians are, and should be, real people. Real people have affairs. Real people have complex sexual identities. Real people have complex relationships with their work colleagues, and *gasp* even date the boss on occasion. The more you go down the path of forcing politicians to adhere to some (generally god bothering) ideal moral code, the less real and effective our politicians become. Who would go into politics if their sexual or other personal proclivities suddenly become a matter of public record/prurient interest?
I think I’m largely agreeing with Mod Lib on this one, although Mod Lib seems to be trying to make the Ashby civil case out to be much more serious than it is; we’ll have to wait and see what the court decides fundamentally, but from the evidence in the public domain so far it seems very fishy and very minor.
Whose “high standard” are we talking about anyway that includes moralizing about who someone might (consensually) cuddle up with and tut tutting about allegedly “pissing out a window”?
I do find it disturbing to be defending Peter Slipper. I don’t think that the principles involved are “convenient” and that support for Peter Slipper is based solely on the politics of the moment. I just find it very disturbing that an American style media-driven prurience about politicians is developing – David Campbell’s public outing by channel 7 was very much in the same vein – no one could put a case as to why the matters had anything to do with his performance as a minister, but shock horror gay sex sleaze. Bleh.
We don’t know what is true and what is mere smear and allegation. Whatever may be true is also completely out of context. Given the minor nature of what has been alleged, you’d have to say that there’s not a lot there – they dug and dug and if this is all they’ve got, Peter Slipper actually comes out smelling pretty good.
[Shame ModLib seems like a ‘SYDENEY’ person because I suspect would be good company.]
We “upper class types” don’t associate with beer drinkers I’m afraid.
Hehe 😉
Mod,
Putting aside questions of unlawful conduct, would you agree that there have been questions over the standard of Slipper’s general conduct going back to at least 2003?
TLBD #2444 – Not sure whether all of that is quite right. There are two Fair WOrk bodies to take into account – Fair Work Ombudsman (FWO) and Fair Work Australia (FWA) , they have different powers and functions. I cant tell from the media whether there has been an application that FWA has to deal with or whether it might be going via FWO first. I am going to entertain myself on Anzac day re-reading the Fair Work Act and might be able to come back to you then.
CTar,
Strongbow Dry Cider?
Could go a scrumpy.
Night all, bed beckons!
Happy Anzac Day tomorrow.
drake:
I think Slipper is a slimeball.
Thats beside the point though!
MM,
Cheers.
Moddy – The dog – shit encrusted footpaths and coffee Saturday stuff are survivable for you, I’m sure.
Blimey! That sounded suspiciously like News-corpse to me that time.
I bet Jimmy is glad for this break. It’s getting decidedly hot in there. Must be a problem with the air conditioning.
More water please! 😉
Then, there is Pisco Sour or a Tequila Sunrise made with a real Tequila.
[I think they were made by a female member of Slipper’s staff who made a complaint to Nutt after someone showed her a copy of a video clip of the alleged act.
She was allegedly told by Nutt to forget all about it.]
And that seems to me to be the basis of Ashby naming the Commonwealth as a respondent to his civil claim. So, not good for the Fiberals, as various of them are the only ones who can give evidence on that matter.
[I think Slipper is a slimeball.]
He fitted very well in to today’s Liberal Party.
Mod,
I agree, and the fact Abbott says they were trying to get rid of him suggests that they’ve also regarded him as such for a long time.
Concusion: Both sides have sustained him and both should be ashamed.
[Happy Anzac Day tomorrow.]
TLM, have is ever been suggested to you that you may be prone to missing the point?
Based on what facts?
The video from late last year of Abbott supporting Slipper as a strong and loyal member of the Coalition is a killer. They keep showing it on The Project.
Abbott then tells us he was trying to get rid of Slipper, at the same time as he was endorsing him.
Both sides owned him when it was convenient for them.
[ I think Slipper is a slimeball.
Based on what facts?]
Duck,
Based on the fact he used to be a good friend of Abbott.
Happy?
Yeah, all right. Off you go.
We’re making separate points anyway. I think Ashby included all that 2003 stuff to strengthen his case, by alleging Slipper had a history of harassment. I also think he’s relying on it, to an extent, because his case looks a little weak without it. Just banter, and what appears to be a tentative approach by Slipper, which was honoured once rebuffed. The claims of victimisation could just as easily be described as attempts to establish a respectful distance between the two in the light of Ashby rejecting the advance.
If there’s no “history” of harassment, there’s no context for the current claims.
Dio,
I think gambling is a reform too far for the government right now.
I think the Gillard Government is doing the best it can, in extraordinary circumstances, to deliver good policy for Australia.
So ML an Even and however can use all the dirt they can to talk down the efforts of Gillard, but for me she is doing good stuff, and the more she is talked down the more I admire her.