Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).

Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:

• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.

• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.

• Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,940 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. especially for Bemused

    We are looking at funding a little project to venerate our fearless leader JG. Would you care to contribute?

    Here is what we are thinking:

    especially for Bemused

    We are looking at funding a little project to venerate our fearless leader JG. Would you care to contribute?

    After feedback from everone, we have changed the design a little to meet the overwhelming demand:

  2. Dio

    If you think that you ate mistaken.
    Liberal, Green, National members and others can join in. Even journalists could be doing posts on here.

  3. Well its a bit hard to know, if i had of been ask the qustion as a thinking australian i would ticked
    Turnbull, and actually i am so fearfull of abbott to help his removal i think i would of.

    I wouid suppose most liberal people that have alwsys voted liberal would want turnbull
    The others, who like his style would tick him, i presume, but of coursr e as mentioned
    So would labor voters, to stir
    so to my mind,, i think he woulc be lower than these numbers if labor people ticked his box also. taki g in these two
    Considerstions.
    Woul it translate to votes may be if people in the undersided.

  4. Bemused,

    You’re the one constantly criticising Party decisions and running an alternative narrative.

    I know you don’t understand my point.

    It involves principle and integrity. Concepts which are beyond the ken of cretins like yourself.

  6. GG @ 94

    Bemused,

    Labor Party members are obliged to debate their policies and Leadership internally.

    You mean like this?

    Former state MP, Federal minister and national ALP president Barry Jones says the ALP’s fortunes would be revived if the party was transformed from an oligarchy to a democracy — but he’s not holding his breath.

    Queensland has developed a tradition of political swings that are far greater than the national average. Labor held only one Queensland House of Representatives seat in 1975 and in 1996 only two.

    The major problem for the ALP is that it is becoming increasingly disconnected from the community at large, or even Labor voters.

    This is partly because of the oligarchic structure of the Party in which control has passed to a small group of apparatchiks, sometimes called the nomenklatura, which dominates state and national conferences, people whose livelihood depends on the party itself or affiliated unions.

    At the December 2011 ALP National Conference, if the question had been asked, and an honest answer given: “Hands up all of you who are here because you work for the Party, work in the offices of affiliated trade unions, or as staffers for MPs, Senators and Ministers”, more than 80% of the hands would have gone up. Of course, there was never any possibility that the question would be asked.

    The oligarchic ALP

  7. There needs to be a Moderator imposed ban on all this Rudd-Gillard crap. Honestly, it’s as boring as it is stupid.

    I don’t care about freedom of speech in this regard, just ban anyone who cuts and pastes the same rehashed twaddle every single day. Boring as bat poo and achieves nothing. Why are people obsessed with recapitulating all this tosh day in and day out? It’s beyond me.

    I don’t care which “side” you’re on either. Can all just please move on? Is there nothing else worth talking about ffs?

  11. Sprocket, now u have lost me,

    I have great devotion to the virgin mary, having attended a school by the same name
    U people dont get it do you

    I say the rosary every day, at this last few min. I have my grandson in melbourne
    Waiting for a health report, people here often ask me to leave prayers on the mary mckillop
    Site,”id and i frequntly leave prayer requests , for the sosj, to pray that julia has strength and guidence.

    There is 5 and half million catholics in aus.’ You would call me a lapsed catholic but still have my faith

  12. guytaur

    It’s probably 80% Labor here. Or alternatively 30% Gillard, 20% Rudd and 30% Labor. Those are the biggest factions.

  13. GG @ 104

    Bemused,

    You’re the one constantly criticising Party decisions and running an alternative narrative.

    Show me where I have opposed party policy?

    My only criticism might have been on watering down of the mining tax.

    I know you don’t understand my point.

    It involves principle and integrity. Concepts which are beyond the ken of cretins like yourself.

    Perfectly. You believe in the Leninist principle of “Democratic Centralism”.

    Are you perchance a closet Trotskyist?

  14. Dio

    It takes only one journalist to see a labor person post something to tweet or otherwise share information from a debate that should be kept in the branches.

  15. Bemused,

    As I said, disunity gets you publicity, but no respect.

    Labor has a spate of old bastards that have sucked the Party dry for their own personal benefit over many years who return their Party provided lifelong security by shitting on their successors. It’s a well known fact that people who had the opportunity to make changes when they were in office but failed to do so, become experts on telling the next generation what to do.

    Please just get out of the way, if you can’t lend an honest hand.

  17. GG @ 115

    Bemused,

    As I said, disunity gets you publicity, but no respect.

    Are you serious? Where is all the publicity you speak about?

  19. People were saying that so and so voted for Slipper as Speaker. If they did who was the other candidate? I think he was the only person to accept a nomination.

  20. [Last week, Mr Abbott told the ABC’s Lateline the LNP in Queensland was intent on showing Mr Slipper the door, saying: ”We were trying to manage Peter Slipper out of the Parliament.”]

    Why only “trying to”? As you can see from my post, Abbott was able to dictate preselection outcomes in two marginal NSW seats over the weekend.

  23. “In Australia we don’t have trial by media. We have trial by courts.”
    Nicola.
    Plus oblique reference to the Puff Adder’s troubles.

  25. comrades, just for a moment of solidarity bemused is right of course. and yes the only cult going is around the present leadership. but this question will not be worked out here nor is it the right time. one way or other the government needs to survive weeks and months ahead – what happens after that is anyone’s guess, or at least improbable enough to entertain competing outcomes …

  26. [It takes only one journalist to see a labor person post something to tweet or otherwise share information from a debate that should be kept in the branches.]

    Oh, I get it. When we read crap in the paper that quotes “Labor sources”, it means us?

    I know journos stoop pretty low, but I didn’t realise they’d gone that low 😉

  27. BH & everyone

    The square brackets [] around quotes to create the quote look (which is indented & in italics) won’t work when there are already square brackets within the text being copied & pasted.

    This is the cause of most of the failed attempts here and confusion as to what is a quoted and and what is original material. If you preview and it’s not working, go through the text and change the square brackets in the text to regular ones.

  30. guytaur @ 118

    Roxon: “Abbot acting like the leader of a lynch mob”

    That is the sort of statement which will make a sound bite that gets repeated and cuts through.

  33. I would have thought getting the Attorney-General’s responses to questions would have been worth a listen.

  35. [People were saying that so and so voted for Slipper as Speaker. If they did who was the other candidate? I think he was the only person to accept a nomination.]

    That would be me, for starters. I didn’t actually remember, but I guess I was thinking about usual elections to positions where, even if there are no other takers, there is at least an “all those in favour/against” motion.

    My assumption was that this had happened on this occasion as well, giving people who were opposed (ie the Libs) an opportunity to put this opposition on record.

  36. Bemused

    I think you genuinely believe that Rudd would better serve the interests of the ALP and the country.

    It seems that most of Australia, with the minor exceptions of the ALP caucus, the unions and Poll Bludger, agree with you.

  37. Danny Lewis @ 126

    Oh, I get it. When we read crap in the paper that quotes “Labor sources”, it means us?

    I know journos stoop pretty low, but I didn’t realise they’d gone that low

    Brilliantly put!

    Some here seem to have an exaggerated view of the importance and influence of this blog.

  41. Today we have had the PM, Albo, Penny, Emmo and Nicola backing Mr Slipper’s action and getting seriously stuck into Tony Abbott. Bit of heavy hitting there.

  42. With great respect to Ms Roxon, Labor should stop doing “oblique” references. People very rarely get “oblique” references.

    I am in accord with those who would support totalitarian dictatorship when it comes to censoring endless re-runs of Ridd v Gillard.

    Would it be possible to have a separate thread for that subject William, like you do with the State polls 🙂

  43. DL

    The funny thing is the Libs played the Speaker game to try to get an advantage, and thats fair. When the ALP do it its dirty pool.

    Irriots.

  47. [Back to politics of the day and things just get worse and worse for this utterly terrible government.]

    Perhaps, but thanks to one of the biggest reform packages in recent history things just get better and better for this utterly ungrateful nation.

    I’ll take that.

  49. bg @ 136

    Bemused

    I think you genuinely believe that Rudd would better serve the interests of the ALP and the country.

    It seems that most of Australia, with the minor exceptions of the ALP caucus, the unions and Poll Bludger, agree with you.

    Something like that. But one gets used to being in a minority in the hope of final vindication.

    The ALP caucus numbers might not be quite those recorded in the recent ballot if external pressures from factions and unions were removed. Not saying Rudd would win, but he would do better.

    Purely academic now unless at some point blind panic sets in and he is drafted.

  50. Are there any links for those pressers?

    Only the “Links, rechts, links” of Mr Murdoch’s minions.

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