This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).
Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:
• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.
• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.
• Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.
Support for the mining tax is at 51% – was 55% back in February; any ideas as to why the drop?
F
BH,
PB as Pravda for the Greens loveys.
How enterprising.
LOL. Gillard really can’t pick a trick lately, can she?
The hilarious thing about the Slipper affair is that if she hadn’t poached him this would be a big scandal for the Coalition. Instead, it’s exploded right in her face.
Can she get anything right, politically? Every political “masterstroke” turns into a masterjoke.
Don’t give up your day job for copywriting William,
[Do you too “not have a Crikey sub”? Well, there’s not time like the present! The Poll Bludger group subscription offer closes Wednesday, and we’ve cleared 50 takers to the going rate is just $75.]
Why PJK will never appear on #qanda Panel plus about China, the Maddies etc (MP3 Podcast) from #TheirABC
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/local/brisbane/conversations/201204/r924953_9641763.mp3
Nemspy,
Slipper is of National Liberal background (long standing), and so is the other player Ashby.
[Whys is Bob Brown’s approval rating amongst ALP voters so much higher than Gillards?]
Because many men do not like a woman in charge, because they get enough of that a HOME!.
Women rule the roost, and I’m a male!?.
“2013 looks like another “unloaseable” election for the Fibs. Remember last time in 1993 they lost one. They have form and know how.”
Given the polls and the behaviour of the media since 2006, what on earth would make you say this?
[http://www.theage.com.au/national/abbott-offered-backing-says-renegade-speaker-20111203-1ocky.html]
Oh dear! Slipper hits back.
[Careful bg, the “cult” will come out in full fury to bag you.]
Bemused I, like most others here, do not like to be referred to as being in some cult.
Labor supporters are entitled to support any leader they see fit.
Some will like Gillard, some will like Rudd, some will like someone else, and some will opt for whoever the Party chooses, that’s their right.
When you consider the fact with Rudd, that he had his chance, and lost by a record defeat in the Party ballott, it is not healthy for fruit cakes like you to continually push for his bucklies course.
You really need hypnosis or medication!
I think the approval ratings for Bob Brown amongst Labor Party voters is simple to explain. They might not agree with his politics. They would never vote for him. They would still approve of him for his integrity and honesty as a politician.
You can approve of someone and not intend to vote for them
As has been pointed out to me a lot of Liberal Party voters think Tony Abbot is a “dick’ to use their colloquialism. They will still vote for him though.
This is why I think a poll that surveys voting intentions is the way to go.
Who did you vote for in the last election?
Who did you intend to vote for in this election?
Where appropriate what is the reason you are changing your vote?
A much clearer picture would be provided I think.
BK,
Last December article. Advance retaliation?
ducky
That will teach me to jump to confusions!
Centre @ 60
I didn’t have you in mind.
Preferences for either Gillard or Rudd are perfectly legitimate but blind adulation for either is rather questionable.
I believe Labor would do better with Rudd as leader but that reflects my judgement and others may see Gillard as the better leader. I have no problem with that.
I also support the ALP whoever the leader is. Why, I even worked hard for victory when that flake Latham was leader. 😀
[No one has posted Gillard’s relative rating to Rudd. Worse than Abbott v Turnbull]
[Inconvenient facts are not welcome here.]
Care to check post 36 at 2.13pm?
Bemused,
Are you still a Member?
If so, you have an obligation to support the Party and Leadership unconditionally.
Centre @ 65
36 only quotes partial figures.
Oh well since keeping Labor divided over Gillard-Rudd is apparently more interesting to some people here I think I get back to reading.
Regards to all
F
[If so, you have an obligation to support the Party and Leadership unconditionally.]
Before, during AND after a leadership challenge.
🙂
GG @ 66
A “Life Member” actually.
What? I am not allowed to hold opinions on the relative merits of leaders? The ALP is not a Leninist Party.
See my 64 –
‘Cults’ – I’m adding it to ‘stab’ and ‘knife’ and their derivatives on my ‘ignore’ list.
Discussion of such items should only be allowed between 1am and 4am.
[The hilarious thing about the Slipper affair is that if she hadn’t poached him this would be a big scandal for the Coalition.]
No, the Fibs would have made sure it stayed buried like they have for so long.
As it stands, really, it remains to be seen who’s face this is blowing up into.
[Are you still a Member? If so, you have an obligation to support the Party and Leadership unconditionally.]
Gee, that sounds like fun…
[No one has posted Gillard’s relative rating to Rudd. Worse than Abbott v Turnbull
Inconvenient facts are not welcome here.]
Nah, just irrelevant given that he has promised not to challenge her again this term.
bg,
Absolutely. One must always support the Leadership and the Party if you are a Member.
There should always be some grace around leadership challenges. However, the leadership was challenged and the usurper lost comprehensively.
Off topic but probably of interest to quite a few here:
Could this virus cure cancer?
drake –
[Gee, that sounds like fun…]
The ultimate sacrifice – handing out to vote cards for Latham.
That’s the sort of threat you use on naughty children!
Drake
[Further back in that thread, Pegasus claimed the Prime Minister was dog-whistling to blue collar voters who had left Labor for the Coalition.]
Context is everything 😉
My first post at http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/04/20/morgan-phone-poll-57-43-to-coalition/comment-page-27/#comment-1224007 was in response to Kezza2 who asserted that JG never makes personal attacks.
[And the Greens will never embrace Labor’s delight at sharing the values of every day Australians, in our cities, suburbs, towns and bush, who day after day do the right thing, leading purposeful and dignified lives, driven by love of family and nation.]
At the time only 3 responses were forthcoming:
1. Cuppa
[Any chance you will graduate beyond cutting and pasting?]
What a ‘gotcha’ 😉
2. Lizzie
[I thought when I read it that that was a strange thing for her to say, at any level. Why offend so obviously.]
3. Kezza2 who subsequently withdrew her remark and agreed that this comment was indeed a personal attack on the Greens supporters.
[I agree with lizzie
It was a stupid thing to say about the Greens.
And you’re absolutely right.
And I can’t defend it.
So, cross out my defence of JG in saying that then.
It was unworthy of a Labor leader, let alone JG.]
I replied to Lizzie’s comment at http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/04/20/morgan-phone-poll-57-43-to-coalition/comment-page-32/#comment-1224236
[Her words were deliberate and calculated. She was dog-whistling to the conservative blue collar Labor voters who she must win back from the Coalition.
Gillard, and her electoral strategists, obviously believe that in smearing the 1.7 million Australians who voted Greens such tactics will overall be a vote winner for the ALP at the next election.]
At the time there was no responses that I saw to my first paragraph.
Given that you haven’t commented on my opinion….What is your spin on Gillard’s comment? Why did she make it and to whom was she addressing it?
[The general theme, as always with the Greens, is one of elevated morality.]
The perennial ad hominem and strawman arguments.
[So, when the Greens try to land the blame for Slipper squarely at the feet of the major parties, they conveniently avoid telling us that they had every chance to question his integrity and to oppose his appointment – but they didn’t.]
Slipper was nominated unopposed.
GG @ 75
That is a logical absurdity. It would prevent ever having a change of leader.
SNIP: Personal attack deleted – The Auric Force of Certitude.
Is Ashby’s first name Godwin?
A newspaper doing the right (as in correct) thing.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/22/iowa-paper-devotes-front-_0_n_1444459.html
http://www.theage.com.au/national/abbott-offered-backing-says-renegade-speaker-20111203-1ocky.html
LIBERAL defector Peter Slipper has contradicted Tony Abbott’s account that the Opposition Leader was trying to ”manage him out of the Parliament”, saying Mr Abbott offered in August to back him for party preselection.
He said he met Mr Abbott and Liberal Party director Brian Loughnane in Mr Abbott’s office in August, a few weeks before his putative challenger, former Howard minister Mal Brough, clinched control of the Liberal National Party’s federal council in Mr Slipper’s Queensland seat of Fisher.
But Mr Loughnane, who was at the meeting, rejected Mr Slipper’s version, insisting Mr Abbott did not offer the embattled MP his support.
Advertisement: Story continues below
Last week, Mr Abbott told the ABC’s Lateline the LNP in Queensland was intent on showing Mr Slipper the door, saying: ”We were trying to manage Peter Slipper out of the Parliament.”
More at the link
We have been going on about Labor leadership for like an eternity.
Gillard is a strong extremely intelligent women with great negotiating skills and has a record of getting the job done. It’s a fact.
If you think TP would love this post, that’s nothing when he checks the markets.
Newcrest (Austs largest gold coy) has been getting smashed, whereas the banks have held steady today.
It’s slowly but surely a good sign, the global economy is getting back on track 🙂
Conroy on the attack.
Conroy Blasts Telstra Treachery
It’s good to see slipper firing back. One feels that’s just the beginning, a little stab at the ball for a single. He’s just getting started.
Regarding my post at 61.
Which do you think is more important? Approval Ratings or Voting intentions?
Actually i find the word cult very offensive
GG @ 80
Don’t be so stupid. Life Memberships are awarded to people who have been a member for 40 years.
My loyalty, as always, is to the party, not particular individuals.
The Labor party membership has always debated policies and issues such as leadership and members hold a variety of opinions.
A Pejorative Term? When it comes to discussing certain groups and movements, some experts – on all sides of the debate over cults – object to the use of the word ‘cult,’ considering it to be a pejorative term designed to trigger a negative response.
http://www.cultfaq.org/cultfaq-newreligiousmovements.html
Cult apologists, in particular, tend to accuse their opponents of using the term ‘cult’ to convey negative images.
However, fact is that while a few people may indeed misuse the term that way, the vast majority of cult experts do not use ‘cult’ in a pejorative way – even though they may well view groups or movements thus identified in a negative light.
especially for Bemused
We are looking at funding a little project to venerate our fearless leader JG. Would you care to contribute?
Here is what we are thinking:
[So, do i take it, whenever a Laborite makes a comment favouravble to Labor or links to an ALP media release, that it is an “amateurish attempt at Labor p.r.”?]
Pegasus, your expressed conclusions seemed completely disconnected from what your leaders were saying in the quotes you gave. They actually made a lot of sense on the Slipper issue and were not trying to make a silly political point which you seemed to be making on their behalf.
Hmm. Tony Abbott denying saying one thing to a person’s face and then doing something different behind their back.
I’ll ask Peter Reith whether he thinks that’s likely …
Bemused,
Labor Party members are obliged to debate their policies and Leadership internally.
Being a disuniting big mouth in public gets you publicity, but no respect.
Danny,
You mean Tony “I’m a weather vane” Abbott?
sprocket_ @ 91
That link gives me a blank page.
Mr Conroy might reflect that tens (if not) hundreds of thousands of Mum and Dads who have held onto their Telstra shares might like to get paid twice…
…and that the rest of humanity does not give a rat’s what Mr Thodey thinks.
GG @ 94
Then why do you do it?
Are the square brackets [] not working for some posters when they cut and paste? It makes it difficult to sort out quoted stuff from comment at times.
GG
[Labor Party members are obliged to debate their policies and Leadership internally.]
You could argue that PB is basically a continuous Labor branch meeting over the internet. 😉