Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).

Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:

• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.

• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.

Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,940 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Who would have thunk that #Slynews via Britney & Fool Gilbert are on the #Leadershits rampage via “unnamed ALP source” & rent-a-Richo

  2. [Does using an antenna on your iPad to get the free to air sports coverage breach copyright?]

    After last week’s HCA judgement, does it really matter?

    BTW, you’re no longer stuck with ‘free to air’. With BitTorrnet and Bittorrenz (European & Indian) you can download sports coverage – that’s it!

    In India, my friend, the No.1 religion is Cricket – more evangelised & passionate than Victorians and their AFL! And India, my friend, hates Rupert … and anyone else charging exorbitant fees for participating in their No.1 religion.

    Since the 90s – after a losing stoush with Roop – when its enterprising women’s revenge was to pool their savings, buy very good satellite dishes, wire their neighbourhood, download satellite transmissions and charge the wired neighbours only a small fee they could easily afford, Rupert has loathed them!

    Since then, Roop decided to stick it to another woman, pub landlady Karen Murphy, by taking her to court: read the delicious story Three cheers for Karen Murphy’s win over Sky Sports – but with caveats A Portsmouth landlady has won EU backing to broadcast Premier League matches using a Greek decoder, but you have to take the rough with the smooth with European courts – and you should be able to get round the caveats.

    [the provisional ruling of the ECJ strikes at the very heart of Rupert Murdoch’s lucrative BSkyB sports empire…

    Faced with the rising cost of BSkyB’s sports feed – £7,200 a year to pubs, which are already struggling against cheap supermarket booze and other constraints – Murphy used an imported decoder from Greece to provide Premier League matches at a cost of £800 a year.

    It’s what it costs Greek tavernas under its country-by-country deal with the Premier League, currently the world’s most successful (and rapacious?) football league.]

    With very fast BB (NBN when it goes through, though G4 dongles should cope) India’s & Ms Murphy’s revenge on Rupert should come to you free (except for any decoders etc necessary)

    BTW, as you settle down to watch, don’t forget to raise your first glass to the women, skewered by Murdoch, who took the most appropriate revenge possible on Rupert’s voracious empire!

  3. [Mr Richardson opining that Ms Gillard is not stupid so will have to make some big and bold announcement… possibly a carbon tax at $8 or something like that.]

    Has Richo been on the sauce again? That is just plain stupid.

  4. BW

    News24 has managed to mention when Sky has done so before. It is one reason that DavidSpeers was on twitter before promoting the upcoming “revelations”

  5. Womble,

    The only way it becomes a laughing stock is when wankers with too much desperation to get the government cling to any allegation no matter how tainted like a drowning man to a reed and demand resignations.

    The mature adult course of events is the one being followed by the government and Slipper. Step down whilst criminal allegations are dealt with, don’t step down for civil matters. The reason for the difference is simple. Criminal matters call a members right to sit as an MP/Senator into question and making false accusations in a criminal matter is a grave offence that can see you doing time. Civil matters have no such effect, nor sanction for vexatious claims.

    Slipper knows his parliamentary practice back to front. If the AFP clears him before May 8 he’ll be in the chair and so he should. Anyone in the parliament who wants to bring on a confidence vote can, but the very strong precedent against such a vote and the serious undermining of the reliability of the complainant by an AFP clearing would make such a move look purely political. It would be unlikely to succeed even in the unlikely event that it got a seconder.

    No doubt Slippery will have a chat to Oakie and Windsor, and maybe even Katter and Crook before parliament resumes. If he’s in the chair you can be pretty sure he has the numbers to stay there, and that will be the end of the matter. Any reflections on the speaker outside a confidence vote will quite correctly be rewarded with a spell outside the chamber.

  6. Of course the vouchers are sequential. I keep four or five in my wallet at a time, which I grab when I think I may need them.

    God people are stupid.

    And spare me Richardson talking on matters of probity. Dear God.

    As if any leadership change will occur before July 1.

    I think the biggest problem in this country is rampant stupidity, to be honest.

  7. Burgey

    I am not surprised that the msm is focussed on this matter, rather than policy that will make a difference to the greater community. But if each time you lode a cabcharge from your book, it would be in consequential order? I am utterly confused as to what Speers is implying

  8. susan winstanley

    [Shorten made a goose of himself yesterday with his ‘captain my captain’ nonsense (why anyone thinks he is prime ministerial material is quite beyond me) and his grave intoning of zero tolerance on sexual harassment (easy to say old son, but the real world is a bit more complex).]

    Agree with you! Shorten believes his own bull dust and needs to pull his head in. His sense of his own importance is just amazing. I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could kick him.

  9. Speers seems to be implying the use of vouchers themselves is a questionable practice. Presumably he’s saying it’s standard practice to use a Card.

    I don’t know if that’s the case or not.

  10. Burgey – these are vouchers from the Cab drivers not vouchers from Slipper, they were provided by DOFA – story goes it’s the swipe that occurs when the electronic system is down. From my limited experience, it also goes for hire cars who aren’t connected to the electronic system.

    Ratsak – do you think the current civil proceedings against Slipper look good for the parliament??? I do think you’re right and he’ll do the numbers, don’t be surprised if he doesn’t have them would be my call.

  11. guytaur @ 5433 and 5434

    I think Conroy should set one up, not just “consider” it.

    I can’t now recall where I read it but some respected British columnist was saying something similar about Cameron’s courage in setting up the Leveson Inquiry, even though, as you say, it could be his downfall.

  12. Burgey

    Perhaps Speers could do an investigative report as to how many MPs use a card or not, if he is so concerned with the practice. He should ask each and every MP how they pay for cabs

  13. Cabcharge scan the vouchers and attach them to the back of the invoice for the month. The originals they keep.

    DoFA just needed to locate the invoice for whatever month – I think the actual invoice with attachments is still kept for 7 years.

  14. Nothing has changed, last night Rupert said #RegimeChange is his only game. Ditto with #Slynews this morning with Britney & Fool Gilbert

  15. [surely Lewis would have been more careful with the text messages etc? In other words, verify them first?]

    My observation of NewsLtd, esp tabloids like the DT, is publish and be damned, pay out, apologise in the paper’s most obscure spot, and forget about it. The damage has been done! Move on!

    Even by LimitedNoos “standards”, Steve Lewis is a reckless big mouth on any occasion he can do down Labor, parliamentarians, unions etc.

  16. susan winstanley
    [Shorten made a goose of himself yesterday with his ‘captain my captain’ nonsense (why anyone thinks he is prime ministerial material is quite beyond me) and his grave intoning of zero tolerance on sexual harassment (easy to say old son, but the real world is a bit more complex).]

    Yes, unless Shorten has been thoroughly briefed, he’s hopeless; can’t think on his feet and would make an abysmal PM.

    Sure he was good during the Beaconsfield disaster – but it was right up his alley. And he’s a bit topical at the moment because the mini-movie was screened a few days ago.

  17. Womble, from looking at them, they appear to be standard vouchers which you fill out and give to a driver. The point is, if you’ve a bundle of vouchers, of course they’ll be sequential. It doesn’t mean you use them at the same time.

  18. Cabcharge vouchers come in books just like a cheque book with a stubb and sequential numbering. The standard book has, I think, 50 vouchers.

  19. http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2012/s3489997.htm

    [HSU branches turn on eastern cousin
    Matt Wordsworth reported this story on Friday, April 27, 2012 07:16:00

    ELEANOR HALL: All branches of the Health Services Union, except the eastern one, have now joined the Federal Government’s court action to force HSU East into administration.

    The state secretaries say the infighting in the eastern branch is damaging the national image of the union.

    Later today they’ll confront the head of HSU East Kathy Jackson at a national executive meeting in Sydney, as Matt Wordsworth reports.]
    text & audio

  20. bemused

    was that you who called in on Faine’s program?
    Re what’s to stop others from taking out writs against other MPs?

  21. my mistake @5439: more than a week to go until resumption of parliament on May 8. Plenty of time for the press gallery to confuse itself further. Meanwhile, this ‘disruptive technology’ providing the best news source and commentary as usual.

  22. Mr Shorten was caught out because he did not know that Ms Gillard had said something in public on the topic. The offices of Ms Gillard and Mr Shorten have failed in this case.

  23. [One question on the cab charges. Whose possession were they in before Slipper released them last night?]
    Department of Finance

  24. Department of Finance would still be checking the vouchers. They’ll tell the AFP whether they are shonky or not.

  25. Burgey – the argument coming from Sky News and 2GB is that they are from the driver. You could be right though and what you say makes sense, I haven’t used vouchers for ages so can’t remember to be honest.

    Apparently Hadley had some taxi company head honcho on saying they were unusual

  26. If Mr Rudd returns as prime minister it would simplify things enormously for me.

    I will not be forced by the apparatchiks into the game of having to choose between two narcissist/sociopaths.

  27. [Boerwar
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 10:37 am | Permalink
    Mr Shorten was caught out because he did not know that Ms Gillard had said something in public on the topic. The offices of Ms Gillard and Mr Shorten have failed in this case.]

    Yep, pretty bloody lazy. There should be liason on the government response to the main media question for the day.

  28. kezza2 @ 5474

    bemused

    was that you who called in on Faine’s program?
    Re what’s to stop others from taking out writs against other MPs?

    No, not me. But it was a good call.

    There was another good call on unemployment and I knew that caller.

    Sally Warhaft was just hopeless and might as well have been representing the IPA the way she was singing from the same song sheet.

    There was an excellent call on all the IPA shills infesting the ABC. Sadly, that wasn’t me either, but he was channelling my thoughts.

  29. [Boerwar
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 10:40 am | Permalink
    If Mr Rudd returns as prime minister it would simplify things enormously for me.

    I will not be forced by the apparatchiks into the game of having to choose between two narcissist/sociopaths.]

    Huh.

  30. Ducky

    Thought so. So the allegation was initially that they were blank. Now they are completed and signed, but Lewis reckons the signatures are dodgy, and now because the vouchers are in sequential order they are also dodgy. Got that!

  31. I guess the easy way to find out if they are Slipper’s vouchers or the driver’s ones is for someone on Tweeter to Tweet the man himself and ask???

  32. [Thought so. So the allegation was initially that they were blank. Now they are completed and signed, but Lewis reckons the signatures are dodgy, and now because the vouchers are in sequential order they are also dodgy. Got that!]
    They really want slipper gone don’t they.

  33. BW
    [Mr Shorten was caught out because he did not know that Ms Gillard had said something in public on the topic. The offices of Ms Gillard and Mr Shorten have failed in this case.]
    Bull dangles.
    JG has been totally consistent since the story broke.
    i.e. it’s been the Labor “line” all week that once the criminal allegations were sorted, Slipper would be back to the Speakership.

    It just shows that Shorten was trying on the Stephen Smith gravitas a la the ADF – with nowhere to go once he’d got that bit out.

  34. Hahahahaha. Facebook friend has just reminded me of this post I put up on the day of the Aged Care announcement:

    [More good news. Expect another Abbott stunt in the next 12 hours to divert everyone’s attention …]

    I could argue ESP or genius foresight but really, it’s his M.O.

  35. The problem for the accuser is that if he is shown to be dodgy on the taxi front his judgement is then questioned on other fronts.

  36. The sequential nature of the dockets are not surprising nor is the use. In regional areas it is near impossible for those machines to work. Plus if he was given dockets they would have been in a sequential bundle.

  37. kezza2 @ 5469

    Yes, unless Shorten has been thoroughly briefed, he’s hopeless; can’t think on his feet and would make an abysmal PM.

    Sure he was good during the Beaconsfield disaster – but it was right up his alley. And he’s a bit topical at the moment because the mini-movie was screened a few days ago.

    Agree completely.

    And it was revealed on radio this morning that, apart from being good mates with Michael Kroger, he is also a friend of John Roskam, boss of the IPA.

    WTF!!!

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