This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).
Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:
• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.
• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.
• Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.
There are going to some interesting court cases coming up. Does using an antenna on your iPad to get the free to air sports coverage breach copyright?
bg:
I think we were all too busy watching Leveson.
OPT
Great analysis. Only question I have is that surely Lewis would have been more careful with the text messages etc? In other words, verify them first?
Ashby’s claim is due for mention on 21 May in the NSW court. Shellbell has said before that 6 months would be normal before a full hearing slot was avaialbe, but for such a cause celebre this may be fast tracked.
Looking at the House sitting calendar, it sits 3 days (May 8,9,10) for the Budget, and then not till 18th June.
So one strategy would be to have Slipper sit out the 3 days, focus “on the Budget for working families, not the grubby muckraking of the Opposition) and stonewall any votes.
The 21 May hearing can then occur, at which time any depth to the allegations and/or conspiracy may have been flushed out.
I have a funny feeling that old Slippery Pete may be holding a few cards he hasn’t played yet. If so, they are all bad news for Abbott and the Libs.
sprocket
And in the meantime, the msm has gone back to claiming JG leadership on the line. I wonder why?
Oz,
(g) When asked & pressed, Tony Abbott couldnt and wouldnt deny that Ashby wasnt a put up job to entrap Slipper
[looking at the House sitting calendar, it sits 3 days (May 8,9,10) for the Budget, and then not till 18th June. }
Seems reasonable and a lower risk strategy.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/telstra-afl-nrl-win-live-footy-court-battle-20120427-1xoth.html
Good Morning All
Interesting that Albo has taken on the job of the police / DOFA and cleared Slipper based on the information released last night. Mind you Abbott has apparently done the same, according to earlier posts – on the criminal claims at any rate.
Seems a pretty safe bet Wilkie will move a motion calling for Slipper to stand down, once he returns, I’d imagine Oakeshott and Windsor will support that motion. As a Greens supporter, I’d hope Bandt would as well and going on Bob Brown stating the other day that the Slipper move was a mistake, I’d be surprised if he didn’t.
Why? Simple really – Slipper holds a position of great responsibility in the parliament as Speaker. That role is tainted while the charges are in play – he should stand down until he is cleared or otherwise.
[I have a funny feeling that old Slippery Pete may be holding a few cards he hasn’t played yet. If so, they are all bad news for Abbott and the Libs.]
sp, oh yes.
Slipper might be silly, norty even reckless but he is not stupid. You dont survive in the LNP for 21 years, especially in murky QLD, for being stupid.
Julia Gillard chastises Bill Shorten over comments about Peter Slipper
That headline from the Terror tells us I think what is going to happen. Mr Slipper will be in the Speaker’s Chair.
The only questions are what are the Cross Benches and Opposition going to do?
Whoops
[Looking at the House sitting calendar, it sits 3 days (May 8,9,10) for the Budget, and then not till 18th June.
]
Scratch those dates, the house actually sits again on 21 May for 2 weeks. Calendar a bit confusing as it is overlaid with Senate Estimates which occurs that fortnight in lieue of the Senate Sitting
sprocket
Again, what happens next depends on what Slipper does and not what the msm tells us. He may very well sit out the first three days back. It depends on what cards he has to play
[the msm has gone back to claiming JG leadership on the line. I wonder why?]
It’s a golden rule in Australian politics: you know when Abbott’s leadership is in trouble by the number of stories claiming Gillard’s leadership is in trouble.
SoF
bingo!
If Rudd regains the leadership I wil hand out HTV cards for my ALP local member.
I should add, it does look a pretty safe bet the whole cab charge thing is a beat up – the sooner they get rid of the vouchers the better. I thought all frequent uses were on cards now anyway, if they aren’t they should be.
I spoke with a young person yesterday who thought Tony Abbott was Prime Minister of Australia.
I corrected him quickly and rather more brutally than I should have, but it served to remind me how horrifying the notion is …
DL
Backs up my comment yesterday that many people in the electorate have no clue what is actually going on with politics and policy
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/26/bradley-manning-wikileaks-aiding-the-enemy_n_1456959.html
Telstra, AFL & NRL should not celebrate too soon. With cloud storage computing, they will find a way to by pass that for private streaming
Womble
[Why? Simple really – Slipper holds a position of great responsibility in the parliament as Speaker. That role is tainted while the charges are in play – he should stand down until he is cleared or otherwise.]
So by that flawed reasoning, anyone can make an allegation (even in a civil matter) against a member of Parliament (including the PM) and the MP should stand aside.
What absolute rubbish.
For thise wanting a recap on this past media frenzy
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/pokies-crusader-andrew-wilkie-says-he-was-a-duntroon-bastard/story-e6frfhqf-1226039361126
[Pokies crusader Andrew Wilkie says he was a Duntroon bastard
Andrew Rule From: Herald Sun April 15, 2011 12:00AM]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/wilkie-dismisses-new-bastardisation-claims–and-questions-their-timing-20110415-1dhzo.html
[Wilkie dismisses new bastardisation claims – and questions their timing
Andrew Darby, Hobart
April 16, 2011]
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/04/18/rupert-hitler-1983-beat-ups-doesn%E2%80%99t-all-this-sound-familiar/
[Rupert, Hitler, 1983, beat-ups … doesn’t all this sound familiar?
by Stephen Mayne]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/andrew-wilkie-buries-the-hatchet-with-accuser/story-fn7x8me2-1226041223433
[Andrew Wilkie buries the hatchet with accuser
Sue Neales From: Herald Sun April 19, 2011 12:00AM]
BG, I really cannot see it happening. I don’t think you will be handing out HTVs on election day.
One final point from me. Many in the MSM and here insist on bagging JG’s strategy and decision making. To quote her “Scoreboard”.
Yes, Slipper was always going to cause some pain – but how much more? JG already had the MSM, the billionaires, Abbott and Rudd undermining her. Why not go for a bit of bomb-throwing to shake things up? Slipper is the bomb.
So since November 2011, JG has seen of Rudd’s challenge, got the mining tax through, got key budget saving measures like capping private health insurance through, and given the Opposition more time to start their self destruction. The bonus is the #newscorpse immolation.
The indies are not going to vote for an early election, as their place in ths sun evaporates. JG is showing herself to be a great PM.
[Why? Simple really – Slipper holds a position of great responsibility in the parliament as Speaker. That role is tainted while the charges are in play – he should stand down until he is cleared or otherwise.]
Why? Simple really – Abbott holds a position of great responsibility in the parliament as the LOTO. He was elected by a tainted vote. That role is tainted while the charges are in play – he should stand down until he is cleared or otherwise.
[ Calendar a bit confusing as it is overlaid with Senate Estimates which occurs that fortnight in lieue of the Senate Sitting]
The Opposition will be busy thinking up ‘tricky’ questions for the Ministerial & Parliamentary Services people from DoFA.
The Opposition will be looking forward to this – the DoFA people ‘not so much’.
I would like a journalist to ask Tony Abbott “If it is shown that a member of the LNP has assisted Ashby in preparing his claim against Slipper will you resign your position as LOTO”
[David Speers @David_Speers
Something very fishy about Peter Slipper’s cabcharge dockets released last night. Details coming up at 10am on Sky News.]
Speers to muddy the waters.
[ another question of moving a motion of no confidence. Does the speaker have a chance to defend his position at the time of the motion? ]
There is a question about this that the Government needs to start asking.
Do the democratically elected representatives of the people of
Australia, both to govern and oppose, cower in front of a confected crisis bought about by an organisation who is under judicial revue in a parliament older than ours?….and if so…why?
here we go:
[David Speers @David_Speers Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Something very fishy about Peter Slipper’s cabcharge dockets released last night. Details coming up at 10am on Sky News.]
Bushfire Bill
[And for all those who love flying]
These sorts of conditions are surprisingly common (notorious and dangerous at the old Kai Tak airport in Hong Kong) although I’m glad to say I’ve only experienced such an adventure a couple of times.
I see the second aircraft did a TOGA (Take Off Go Around) which was very sensible in the circumstances. There were similar incidents in Hamburg about a month ago – on you tube for anyone interested.
Anyway, it was probably Julia Gillard’s fault and will certainly push up the price of our electricity and water. After all, isn’t everything from nasty weather to the slaughter of the first-born in the Bible all because of Labor? 🙂
If Slipper is forced to stand down it obviously makes for a very dangerous precedent and the courts better get ready for a rush of civil claims. Surely though, politicians have to do what they can to protect the institution of the Parliament – it does none of us any good if it becomes a laughing stock, or more of one.
Headline on News24 Ticker.
Conroy considers need for media watchdog.
This is what the News Limited Mob fear. Actual accountability.
I do not like David Cameron and his politics. I know circumstances forced him to set up inquiries into phone hacking and other media conduct.
I do however have to give the man credit for setting up true independent inquiries. He could have just gone for a white wash minimalist inquiry instead of this one to look at media generally. I think that is to his credit. It will I think save some of Mr Cameron’s reputation after he resigns as Prime Minister. Yes I do think he will have to resign as more links come between him and News International.
[The Finnigans
Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 7:35 am | Permalink
“despairing Labor MPs have again begun questioning the viability of Ms Gillard’s leadership”.
As you were.
That is news? There were some 30 MPs voted for Rudd and some were die hard regardless like some here.
As you were not. ]
… and those more likely to leak might just be among this lot. It doesn’t mean there is not despair among many. In parliament house they live in a bubble where the media noise and the polls are everything.
Listened to a bit of Fran’s panel wrap this morning on RN. Panel was Bongo, Grattan and Cheryl Kernot. All three females were convinced that it was a very bad moment, critical might have been the term used, and that Gillard once again showed terrible judgement in appointing and defending Slipper. Fran and Cheryl thought it was a very low moment; Michelle that it was only one of many for Gillard.
Bongo was a bit more circumspect – not as optimistic as many of us on PB were last night but had more of a wait-and-see attitude, mentioning that Labor are hoping it is another Grech moment, which it seems to be shaping as.
I can’t see the gloom in store that most of the panel predict. I’m disappointed in Cheryl – seems media is still everything to her, quoting Richo about the stench of this. Grattan and Kelly were just as they always are.
Paul also made the point that Labor standing by Slipper, at least on the innocent until proven otherwise, is very much in their interests. Whatever the outcome, Slipper will almost certainly not back Abbott.
Leroy @ 5423,
He was a “bastard” then and is a “bastard” now – leopards do not change their spots.
http://tinyurl.com/cp9b6v8 (click google link)
[Super funds forced to come clean
BY: DAVID CROWE, NATIONAL AFFAIRS EDITOR From: The Australian April 27, 2012 12:00AM
THE Gillard government will crack down on conflicts of interest in the $1.3 trillion superannuation industry by imposing tough new rules on trustees who manage employee savings.
Super funds will be forced to reveal the remuneration packages of their directors, top executives and fund managers and more details of their investment holdings in a historic shift towards standards similar to those that apply to listed companies.]
http://www.afr.com/p/lifestyle/afrmagazine/tony_abbott_higher_calling_aNGk1uJKD26R4KQ6TWkbJJ
[Tony Abbott’s higher calling
PUBLISHED: 8 HOURS 57 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 1 HOUR 0 MINUTES AGO
ANDREW CLARK
The Opposition Leader’s politics have been deeply influenced by his identification with political propagandists of the Catholic Church and his adherence to its dogma.
Father Edmund Campion, the distinguished literary priest, peers at his students at St Patrick’s seminary in Manly, Sydney’s famed beachside suburb. “I think we ought to have a class on Santamaria,” Campion says. “Who’s he?” asks a student. The year was 2000, just two years after the death of Bartholomew Augustine (B. A.) Santamaria, Australian Catholicism’s greatest political warrior. Campion, who also taught Tony Abbott as a trainee priest in the 1980s was gobsmacked that the memory of such an extraordinary figure had faded among a new generation of priests.
Santamaria had no formal political role and never ran for office, but he kept Labor out of power for 17 years. He was also huge in the life of Abbott, who said after his death that Santamaria “saw politics as a way of giving glory to God”. Historical amnesia about Santamaria also raises the question about how well we know Tony Abbott, the man who would be Prime Minister.]
victoria
re your question over No Confidence in the Speaker – and how many votes required?
Cast your mind back to May 31, 2011 and the imbroglio that embroiled the parliament when Harry Jenkins named the member for Paterson.
A division was required and the votes were 72-71 for the noes
There were 2 pairs, and Katter and Windsor missed the vote.
This situation implied that the Speaker had lost the confidence of the house.
Abbott immediately jumped up and moved a vote of confidence in the Speaker.
Gillard seconded it.
Oakeshott explained his position (didn’t hear the reason etc)
Upshot: Vote of confidence in the Speaker, on the voices.
So, it would seem, even if Katter and Windsor made it back for the vote of confidence, there would have been only 145 votes to be had.
I can’t see any reason why it would be different for a vote of no confidence.
Having said all that, it was quite obvious at the time that Abbott only put up the motion because it meant Peter Slipper (as Deputy Speaker) would step up to the job and Abbott, having already reneged on pairing the speaker, would lose a vote on the floor.
And so overnight, with Slipper’s release of his cabcharge documents, the chickens are wandering home to roost.
As of today, Gillard still stands on the side of common sense and decency despite the best efforts of the pea-brained press gallery to tear her down. And Windsor, an honourable man, needs to have that chat with Slipper soon.
Andrew Elder and Laura Tingle have both produced mature and thoughtful dissections of the so-called “stench” around Slippergate, pinging that grub Steve “vendetta” Lewis, BF of ABC Toolman, in the process. And Malcolm Farr gets a rightful bollocking for his pathetic dog-whistling homophobia on the Punch yesterday.
This morning Fran Kelly’s predictable anti-government beat-up was beautifully stonewalled by Christine Milne. Exasperated Fran then turned in relief to her mate Michelle Grattan, and they concluded happily that Gillard is stuffed, again. No discussion of the facts, but plenty of whittering about appalled government backbenchers and appalled voters on their couches at home, all of whom Michelle knows personally.
Shorten made a goose of himself yesterday with his ‘captain my captain’ nonsense (why anyone thinks he is prime ministerial material is quite beyond me) and his grave intoning of zero tolerance on sexual harassment (easy to say old son, but the real world is a bit more complex).
And Wilkie is still rolling around the deck like a loose cannon. What will today bring? Only four more sleeps until the resumption of parliament.
So what did Speers say?
Mr Speers on Sky just now.
‘Glaring irregularity’ the serial numbers are in sequential order. Driver dockets are used when the electronic system is down. The electronic system always seemed to be down when Mr Slipper was travelling on these days. The serial numbers are sequential order, despite travel having been separated by days.
Costs up to three times more than normal for the same sort of trips.
Cross check available by way of GPS. Police will presumably do this.
Segue to a discussion with ‘…a very senior figure in the ALP…’ that we should not rule out the return of Mr Rudd.
Segue to Mr Richardson ‘…there is certainly some movement in the station…’ According to Mr Richardson she ‘…has a month or so…’ to make a difference.
A/c to Mr Speers there is no leadership chatter but there is open ‘…dismay.’
Britney queried the technical details of the vouchers. No smokin’ gun.
Mr Richardson opining that Ms Gillard is not stupid so will have to make some big and bold announcement… possibly a carbon tax at $8 or something like that.
Thanks Kezza
News24 treating the Sky revelations with the attention they deserve.
Zero Coverage. Melissa Clarke did not mention once.
5312
Great post again, Ratsak.
guytaur
[News24 treating the Sky revelations with the attention they deserve.
Zero Coverage. Melissa Clarke did not mention once.]
It has only been a nanosecond since Sky made the revelations.
Is anyone watching Sky to see what Speers is up to?
Tawdry buffoon he is. Will never forget Hom at the ALP launch in 07, saying to, if I recall correctly Mal Farr “Hope you’ve got something bad to say about it mate” in reference to Rudd’s speech.
bluegreen @ 5416
So will I.
But I will also do it if Julia Gillard remains leader.