This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).
Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:
• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.
• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.
• Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.
I realised from watching QandA last night that Mr Palmer only has one speech and he repeats it endlessly. Can’t imagine him joining in a decent dinner conversation. He even had the gall to pretend he was asleep instead of listening to the researcher.
The man has no couth.
I think supporting Slipper back into the Speaker’s chair (while probably the right thing to do from from a natural justice point of view) is politically fraught. Abbott may well turn a no confidence motion in the Speaker (which seems to have legs given Wilkie’s and Windsor’s recent commenst) into a no confidence in the Govt.
another question of moving a motion of no confidence. Does the speaker have a chance to defend his position at the time of the motion?
Allan:
No, I don’t think it’s the Argentinian tenor either. 😆
victoria:
I think you need an absolute majority for no-confidence motions to succeed.
confessions
76 then
[Lynchpin
Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 8:59 am | Permalink
I think supporting Slipper back into the Speaker’s chair (while probably the right thing to do from from a natural justice point of view) is politically fraught. Abbott may well turn a no confidence motion in the Speaker (which seems to have legs given Wilkie’s and Windsor’s recent commenst) into a no confidence in the Govt.
]
My thoughts exactly Lynchpin.
vic
Assuming Burke votes with Labor, he’d need 75.
But the tame Barrister Brandis was heard on ABC news this morning saying that Slipper “can’t” go back yet. Didn’t ya know? Brandis rules.
I see Wilkie’s still being a prat. I expected as much – he’s got a bug in his butt over the ALP, and I reckon he’s stopped caring about his pokies legislation. It’s all about revenge for him.
In a way, it might be better for Abbott if Ashby drops the charges. Then he can carry on about how the issue remains unresolved, how Slipper has ‘wriggled out of’ accusations made against him etc etc. It gives him lots of smear opportunities that resolving the case wouldn’t allow him.
Centre
[They need to recruit this bloke, he is Mexican I think, El Nino or something. Apparently he is capable of fast tracking global warming.]
I think he might be from Peru. Mexico would be too far north. 🙂
The only reason I can see the Govt wanting this to play out in the Parliament is that Slipper has material on the Opposition that he will bring out in any debate.
I have no respect at all left for Wilkie.
He believes Slipper should stand down until all matters are taken care of yet a few months ago when Clubs Australia and others were releasing all the personal crap about him through the MSM he was outraged.
At that time he was prepared to stand up to them. Now he has had a change of heart when it is someone else and he thinks he may once again become relevant.
No respect for him at all.
They may say what they like bit as far as I am concerned the only one here standing up for what they believe in is the PM. Listen to what she says. It is all about justice and the presumption of innocence.
Lynchpin
My thoughts exactly
[I think supporting Slipper back into the Speaker’s chair (while probably the right thing to do from from a natural justice point of view) is politically fraught.]
In many ways it’s more risky for the opposition. Can they be certain Slipper doesn’t have more stuff he can bring out?
bit = but
[He believes Slipper should stand down until all matters are taken care of yet a few months ago when Clubs Australia and others were releasing all the personal crap about him through the MSM he was outraged.]
Excellent point, Doyley. I had forgotten about that.
Windsor has been clear. He will consider any motions of no confidence when it comes to the floor of Parliament and not before.
I think the Opposition will not move one. I think the Opposition will not support one. This because they will not want to do more damage to themselves. At the moment they can claim they have been led by the allegations as printed in the press. To continue is to nail their colours to the mast well and truly. Given their acceptance as it seems from public comments of the criminal charges being disproved they must question the validity of the harassment claims. I do not think they will be wanting to nail their colours to the mast over those.
Victoria:
Wilkie can suck a lemon. There’s still a little bit of time before now and the resumption of parliament, and the landscape could change again. As it stands, civil proceedings are no impediment to assuming your parliamentary role.
I suspect Wilkie would back a motion of no confidence as long as he’s sure it won’t get up. His position is that of being symbolically anti the ALP. I’ll wait and see what Windsor and Oakeshott say – I should think having the criminal case disintegrate might change their minds.
TimCostello on 774 this morn saying that Jenny Macklin’s heart is in the right place over Pokies but Gillard has failed the country.
Doyley
What happened to the rule of law. Actually the PM could lodge civil proceedings for harrassment against Pyne and Hockey for harrassing her in the corridors of Parliament.m mind you there were plenty of witnesses too. They will then need to step aside until the matter is dealt with. I would like to see that! 🙂
Slipper knows what he is doing. The PM knows what she is doing.
Guytaur, the Opposition cannot now back down. They have said Slipper should stand aside until the Ashby claims are finalised. I understand this also to be Wilkie’s and Windsor’s attitude. Katter has been silent.
guytaur
Windsor has said Slipper shouldn’t come back until the criminal and civil cases have been “tidied up”.
Did anyone watch the qanda thing last night? I missed it. How did Anna Rose go?
Doyley
I have always believed that the PM is two steps ahead. Are we to believe that she was not expecting the msm and the coalition to target Slipper from the minute he became speaker?
So, Tim wants the PM to put a bill to the House that everyone knows will not get up?
Politics is the art of the possible, not the art of grandstanding.
[lizzie
Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 9:08 am | Permalink
TimCostello on 774 this morn saying that Jenny Macklin’s heart is in the right place over Pokies but Gillard has failed the country.
]
The Melbourne/Sydney divide…
Dio
Windsor was speaking in political terms. Not legal ones. Hence his term of “tidied up”.
Lynchpin
The Opposition can back down. They just claim the AFP official results trump press reports. They can back down on the civil claims real easy. Just announce who the new leader of the Opposition is.
victoria @5370,
The whole thing is rubbish.
If Mr Slipper does taken his place it then comes down to whether Abbott has the ba##s to bring it on.
Wilkie is full of himself.
I really believe Mr Slipper has great respect for the office of Speaker and will do nothing to bring it down. Whether he stands down or not is up to him and he will consider his position long and hard.
Diog,
WronG, again. You are being selective. If you must, report all that Tony Windsor said.
Pin it on your fridge. On #Slynews this morning both Richo & Hewson predict that PM Gillard has one month left before being rolled #auspol
[Diog,
WronG, again]
Diog,
wRONg, again
[So, Tim wants the PM to put a bill to the House that everyone knows will not get up?
Politics is the art of the possible, not the art of grandstanding.
]
I really like Tim Costello. Pity about his brother.
Finnigans
So that means they really think JG will be a two term PM?
Richo is as supportive of Gillard as usual!
[This all amounts to a double bunger for our hapless prime minister. Maybe she could survive one of the Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper scandals, but not both. They ensure that she is permanently engulfed in a bad smell. That odour permeates through her every utterance and every policy announcement. It would appear that no amount of perfumed spray will kill the stench.]
Finns,
Let me guess: unnamed labor backbenchers …
Wilkie’s just having trouble adjusting to relevance depredation syndrome.
His opinion on any matter is worth 3/5s of sfa.
Even IF Oakie and Windsor were to support a move of no confidence (and their words have been reported through a distorting prism) They still need both Crook and Katter. Both of them supported Slipper as Deputy in 2010 and have kept right out of this as far as I know.
But it won’t even come to that. Oakie and Windsor were talking before the evidence was in that the allegations made on the criminal matter were demonstrably false. They aren’t going to hang Slipper out to dry for months on the basis of allegations brought by someone who has been shown to be at best ‘mistaken’. It would be outrageous to expect anyone to stand aside in such circumstances.
shellbell,
If you are about – what is a typical time frame for a case such as Ashby has pulled on Slipper take to get heard?
[I have no respect at all left for Wilkie.]
Never had any respect for carpetbeggar
Federal Court has ruled against Optus in the sports rights case
Ducky
In denial. Still.
[“My advice to him would be to vacate the chair whilst all these enquiries are going on and not force it to a vote within the Parliament,” he said.
“I’m not pre-empting what may or may not happen in the Parliament, but I think in the interests of the role of Speaker, the very important role in our institution, as the Speaker had, that it is probably in the best for all of us, Peter Slipper included, that he steps aside as these matters are tidied up before resuming the chair.”]
Finns,
There are 2**5 = 32 ways of spelling that.
Diog,
So Mr Windsor was not going to have a chat to Mr Slipper?
My memory must be failing me.
bluegreen
The quanda thing was rather silly and wouldn’t change anyone’s opinion. The item that got the audience most excited was when Palmer suggested we should get rid of Gillard. Coal rules.
[Let me guess: unnamed labor backbenchers …]
Ducky, that was from Fool Gilbert and it was someone who was a non Rudd backer as well apparently. PM Gillard is doom.
The problem for the Opposition. They have made a Federal Case out of this. Literally.
Going on press reports alone. Trashing due process as they went.
Voters are not stupid they will remember come ballot time.
[Pin it on your fridge. On #Slynews this morning both Richo & Hewson predict that PM Gillard has one month left before being rolled #auspol]
Oh god. Are we back to that again are we?
Jeezus!
I stopped watching sky news a few weeks ago. Never felt better. Since the footy season has been back, I have been enjoying the distraction.
An excellent article in New Statesman from a former senior editor of Mordor’s Times (UK), Nicholas Wapshott;
[Now the contagion has spread across the Atlantic. Lewis has taken the fight to New York, where victims such as Hugh Grant and Cherie Blair are lining up to cash in on News Corp’s intrusions into their private lives. And if the courts hear of interception of phone messages on American soil, Murdoch must get ready to explain to Congress in person what he knew about the widespread criminality that took place on his watch.]
Far more here. A great read;
http://www.newstatesman.com/world-affairs/2012/04/rupert-murdoch-always-felt-outsider-now-he-could-become-one
[If the #Cabgate criminal allegation is a fabrication, what credibility left for #Sexgate considering the accuser’s background & politics]
1. And will Ashby’s solicitors rethink going into a civil action when their client’s credibility has already been undermined?
2. Spent some of last night’s ‘time out’ comparing Utegate and Sexgate. Coppers call it modus operandi
(A,i) Grech a Treasury official of unstable personality, with access to documents, a history of leaking, and an obsessive Liberal dedicated to undermining PM Rudd and his Government.
(A.ii) Ashby a Liberal party member with a history of aggressive behaviour towards the press, Slipper’s staffer (with access to his Office), with no credible explanation for why he took a job in the office of a hated Liberal Turncoat.
(B.i) Grech produces emails which seem to show that Rudd, Swan and Ipswich Labor pollies corruptly colluded (ie criminal offence) to push business the way of a ‘major’ donor to Rudd’s electoral campaign (an old ute)
(B.ii) Ashby produces phone texts purporting to show Slipper as harrassing him for gay sex (civil offence) & cabcharge documents to show fraudulent claims (criminal offence).
(C.i) Grech seems to have been unaware of what evidence an email ‘Header’ shows, and that Parliament’s computers back-up all documents, so that all email sent through the parliamentary systems can be accessed & are archived
(C.ii) Ashby seems unaware that a mobile phone’s number, details, and the location of the tower nearest the phone at the time any call is made/ text is sent; that all details + the texts, are recorded and archived – in fact, that all other texts, details re time & place of sending, recipient details etc – sent from that phone or any other tied to the same account are also archived and can also be accessed
(D.i) NewsLtd (Daily Telegraph) journo Steve Lewis is given the emails, which he publishes (without checking headers) and beats-up a storm to add to the pressure to force Rudd’s resignation
(D.ii) NewsLtd (Daily Telegraph) journo Steve Lewis is given the documentation, which (without checking who owns the phone from which they are sent, and all those details retrievable from phone company records) beats up a storm to add pressure to disgrace PM Gillard and her government, and force Speaker Silpper’s removal
(E.i) Headers/ lack of headers on email Grech produces prove he wrote them himself on his home computer
(E.ii) Slipper publishes his own CabCharge receipts in his own writing; which, if they are verified, will prove that Ashby’s claims re Cabcharge documents are forgeries. At present, the texts seem not to have been subjected to forensic identification of and details about sender & recipient, time of their sending etc … and all the details of all other texts, phonecalls, texts etc sent from that phone account.
(F) Slipper was an MP, in the HoR, throughout Utegate, so is au fait with all the tawdry details; moreover, there is an ABC TV documentary of Turnbull’s handling of Utegate, just in case anyone’s forgotten the set-up and the fall-out.