Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. [only taxpayers should vote: Joe Hockey on the right track, if slightly idealistic ]

    Has anyone asked Twiggy Forrest what he thinks about Hockey denying him the right to vote.

  3. confessions

    It is obvious the govt have to employ this strategy now. The budget and the carbon price coming into effect, retail time is now upon them

  6. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 10:59 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib
    You are still claiming your umbrella caused the rain.]

    Uh uh.

  7. George Megalogenis, The Australian, 9 May 2009, on the Coalition’s contribution to budgetary structural deficit.

    [John Howard and Peter Costello must take most of the responsibility because they delivered what have now proved to be unfunded tax cuts and handouts between 2004 and 2007.

    …

    What is clear with hindsight is that the Coalition wrote cheques to the electorate that would bounce once the mining boom turned to bust. It wasn’t the election tax cuts that broke the budget, but the combination of tax cuts and handouts in the final term of the Coalition.]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/swan_set_for_two_step_shuffle/

    Shorter Megalogenis: The combination of tax cuts and handouts in the final term of the Coalition {broke the budget}

  11. Puff,

    Mod Lib
    You are still claiming your umbrella caused the rain.

    That is so perfect! (Grammar police, butt out!)

    That extends to most of Tony Abbott’s arguments.

  13. You are saying the government of the day cause these results. An equally valid hypothesis to present is that the results cause the government pf the day.

  16. tlbd
    Tony is a humdinger for deliberately confusing correlation with causation.

    An equally valid hypothesis is that electorate votes in a Right-Wing government in times of Plenty and a Left-Wing goverment in times of Lean.

    After all, the averages ‘prove’ it. 😆

  18. [After all, the averages ‘prove’ it.]

    Oh dear, and you were going so well! Thats where you fall in a heap I am afraid…

  28. Has ModLib gone? I’ve just figured out that inflation averages since 1972 are in the Coalition’s favour, but inflation averages since 1976 are comfortably in the ALP‘s favour. Just depends where you set the boundary, how about that?

    And that since about 1991 there’s been little difference between the two, as inflation has been pretty low since then. It tipped above 5% late in 1995, and for the 2000-01 financial year, but otherwise, mostly well below 5%.

    Link:

    h­ttp://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/australia-historical-inflation-rate.php?form=ausir

    Turns out it’s not hard to find this stuff at all. If you’ve a mind to look for it.

  30. [Do I not have a right to an opinion of her?]
    I don’t recall saying you didn’t. However you seem to have a problem with people supporting Gillard.

  31. [She wants more rapid and effective rebuttals of Opposition attacks, and harder-hitting responses whenever Coalition mistakes provide the opportunity.]
    Excellent.

  32. Do I not have a right to an opinion of her?

    yes and others have the right to think and say your opinion is wrong . Dont go prissy on free speech with me. Dislike.

  34. where is the measured optimism that characterised the past year on PB – watching each small improvement in polls, promise of equilibrium by July this year, modest determined steps to victory. these polls are consistently terrible. does anyone have any optimism – that carbon tax passing will make them better? the carbon tax is a scapegoat for anything-wrong-in-the-economy. abbot will have field day. the news aint pretty. it will take rudd to trim the legislation’s price and rebrand it all as ets – the same thing JG did to his programs.

    all very sad timewasting but perhaps necessary by some strange dialectic

    good news: one more nail in coffins for JG and WS. nothing against them as politicians or people but they are out of their depth. five months – hope its not too long – for a change of leadership – only one candidate

  37. I see from Lenore Taylor’s article that Greg Craven thinks it “perfectly clear that there is no prohibition against a double dissolution being called between a half-Senate election and new senators taking their sets”. Antony Green argues otherwise when he says an Abbott government would’t be able to call a double dissolution until 2015:

    [While it is not explicit in the Constitution, I believe it is implicit in the fixed terms of the Senate that a double dissolution trigger can only apply to legislation first blocked by a Senate in place after 1 July 2014. The Constitution states the Senators take their place on the 1 July after their election. Any double dissolution triggers attempted before new Senators take their seats would not allow the new Senators to vote on the legislation.

    An attempt to create a double dissolution trigger before the new Senators took their seats would attempt to terminate the terms of 108 Senators rather than the 72 implied by the Constitution.]

    However, Craven also says “the practical reality is that the extended time required to produce the necessary conditions for a double dissolution probably means the question is purely theoretical”.

  39. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Gillard’s (Butler’s) aged care package seems to tick the boxes. Importantly it set out to put aged care on a sustainable footing – just the opposite of Howard’s unsustainable middle class welfare election bribes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/shakeup-puts-failing-aged-care-on-track-20120420-1xcg0.html
    Mike Carlton is always worth the time to read.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/a-return-home-or-near-enough-to-it-20120420-1xcn7.html
    Ron Tandberg gives Sloppy a touch up.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    This is not a good look.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/women-report-polites-to-police/story-e6frea6u-1226334775854
    This seems to have allegedly happened some time ago, but from the article it’s not clear.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/speaker-accused-of-sexual-harrassment/story-e6frea8c-1226334810136

  40. Rupert flexes his muscles with a sex scandal.

    Apparently it’s all over every News Ltd. newspaper. Sky News is running hot with updates every 5 minutes. It’s co-ordinated, alright.

    The first two paragraphs lay it out: instant crisis.

    News Ltd decides whether the government is in “crisis” and can bring one on at the drop of a hat, any time it likes, just by putting whatever they like on the front page.

    [SPEAKER Peter Slipper is facing allegations that he sexually harassed a young adviser and misused taxpayer-funded Cabcharge dockets.

    Creating another major crisis for the Federal Government, the man who holds the highest parliamentary office in Australia has been accused by a key adviser, James Ashby, of making “unwelcome sexual advances” and “unwelcome sexual comments”.]

    Easy peasy.

    Was that Rupert’s little finger I saw twitching?

  42. Ah… the slipper story is not in The Australian.

    Waiting for stage #2 of the bootstrap, most likely.

    It’s based on leaked court documents. The accuser must have a weak case if he’s gone public this early.

    Never mind. Ray Hadley and Chris Smith will see it through.

    Sky News is saying it’s in all the News Ltd papers. Presumably using the “Strength in numbers” gambit to get this one off the ground.

    I wonder whether The Parrot’s “butler” has brought him the papers this morning. Parrot will be outraged, of course.

    Who wouldn’t be? It’s in all the papers…

  43. [In March last year the Newspoll had the ALP in front.

    Now it has the Coalition in front by 12-14 points in the last 2 polls!]

    Is that all you have?

    A discredited News outfit has TA in front?

    WOW!!!!!

    No chance of some serious policy, good ideas, or anything except Dr NO!!

  44. [About time they went for Abbott’s jugular – he’s had centre stage too long!]

    Not yet.

    In about a year’s time perhaps, in the meantime give him all the rope he needs.

  45. TLBD @ 423

    [Mod Lib does Wormtongue when it suits its purpose.]

    She/he is interested in the methodology of doing exactly that and has stated that clearly before. You want to say something is ‘black’ so you hunt for something (like the nicely self contained Parliamentary Library data set) to support that. ‘Call me a liar – see this’.

    A posting a little after yours …

    [I’ve just figured out that inflation averages since 1972 are in … Turns out it’s not hard to find this stuff at all. If you’ve a mind to look for it.]

    Exactly right but notice ModLib deflected enough and by the time the opposite has been shown by drawing on other data, to quote PK, ‘the caravan has moved on’.

  46. Joe Hockey’s ‘thought bubble’. Eldest son has worked in China and Hong Kong for 18 years – this in an email from him last night

    Joe Hockey did say we had a lot to learn from Asia. But if he could see the way the have-nots live here he would eat his words. The old especially are excluded from decent health care and the young can’t get proper education, unless of course your family is well-off.

  47. [How Americans Lost Trust in Our Greatest Institutions

    … people have lost faith in their institutions. Government, politics, corporations, the media, organized religion, organized labor, banks, businesses, and other mainstays of a healthy society are failing. It’s not just that the institutions are corrupt or broken; those clichés oversimplify an existential problem: With few notable exceptions, the nation’s onetime social pillars are ill-equipped for the 21st century. Most critically, they are failing to adapt quickly enough for a population buffeted by wrenching economic, technological, and demographic change.]

    It’s a long article but about half way down there’s an interesting and easily understood graphic that shows Gallup polling of the confidence in various institutions over a ten year period.

    I don’t imagine it is much is different here.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/04/how-americans-lost-trust-in-our-greatest-institutions/256163/

  48. This is an idea the ALP should be looking at. It has often struck me that the best way to introduce genuine competition among the preponderence of oligopolies (think banks, energy suppliers) is to play them at their own game: unleash the monopoly purchasing power capability inherent in large numbers of people who band together. A kind of 21st version of the original cooperative movement that led to the establishment of labor parties in the Late 19th century.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/apr/20/ed-miliband-voters-cheap-electricity

  49. NEWSLTD

    is confirming what people are starting to see, ABBOTT is gone and news ltd is digging up dirt on slipper in desperation, which has nothing to do wiht labor

    The question has to be asked what did abbott know about slipper and why did he continue to endorse him before and after the election

  50. Meguire Bob

    Another question to be asked. The Howard Government was aware of allegations of a similar nature. Why is it that not one Coalition member, not even Bill Herrernan made these public during the Howard years? These allegations if true are criminal allegations.

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