Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.
[When do the Murdochs front Leveson? Has it been announced?]
Sure has. Leveson inquiry: Rupert and James Murdoch to give evidence next week
News Corp chairman will face phone hacking questions on Wednesday, while his son will appear on Tuesday
Mod Lib you spend too much time trying to convince people on here Gillard is bad. A waste of time on me. She’s not perfect but she’s miles better than Abbott. I don’t care who else likes her or sees her as doing a good or bad job. I for one believe she is doing a very good job. Like it or lump it my friend.
Finnigans
That was a serious breach of etiquette to post the score of a delayed sporting match, of any description
DO NOT do it again!
Particularly with the Olympics coming up we have to set some standards in the PB lounge around the TV, the remote and match scores! Do it again and you will be fish fingers.
Ducky:
I hope it is televised on Sky.
Mod Lib,
What are the medians for that data?
I don’t have the individual years, just the government averages.
Thats what the Australian Parliamentary Library released. It would be possible to go back and find each of the parameters for each of the years but I can’t be bothered because the APL has provided summaries which is more than enough to get the picture.
[Gary
Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib you spend too much time trying to convince people on here Gillard is bad]
Do I not have a right to an opinion of her?
Don’t shoot the messenger, just because my view of her is in agreement with the vast majority of Australians.
[BH
Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 7:55 pm | Permalink
SK – thanks for the Faine interview link. Like mari I cracked up – CFW was all over the shop and I didn’t know Faine had it in him to challenge a Liberal like that. Top listening for a Labor supporter for a change,]
Just catching up after work. Yes, that was really a shocker from CFW. Heard it on the car radio. The only thing she’s got going for her is that she’s in the Senate and her portfolio opposite number, Mark Butler, is in the House. Otherwise he’d eat her alive.
The coalition have some serious passengers among their front bench. Some look pretty terrible compared to the ministers opposite. Dutton against Plibersek stands out. Garrett has copped a bit from posters here, but his opposite number is Pyne. Who would you rather have administering schools programs?
The Independent’s Coverage Hacking scandal: the net tightens on the Murdochs
Legal campaign against News Corp in US gathers momentum as Rupert and James Murdoch prepare to appear before Leveson next week
PLUS: Exclusive extracts from ‘Dial M for Murdoch’
[Few people have done so much to force the News International phone hacking scandal into the public eye as Tom Watson, the Labour MP. Here, in exclusive extracts from a sensational new book (written with The Independent’s Martin Hickman), he reveals how he and other members of the Commons select committee were targeted by a media empire that, he claims, ruthlessly discouraged unwelcome attention]
So now the Murdochs’ & Minions’ pressuring/ blackmailing/ etc of HoC Select Committee/s gets its airing, just in time for Levinson to ask uncomfortable questionings.
Threatening a Select Committee of the British Parliament is a Very Serious Matter Indeed! It used to be a capital crime, with The Block or Hanging, drawing & quartering among the suitable sentences.
Bit of a bugger to be so very anti-death penalty when being teased by the thought of The Dirty Digger & Son being given the very public HD&Q treatment at Tower Hill or Tyburn Tree.
Developing the hypothesis that Liberal-National governments cause higher economic outcomes and presenting as proof of your conclusion the results from the comparing means of a few data sets, is so weak it would be thrown out of a first year undergraduate tutorial.
If you can work out the averages, you can work out the medians. The averages are barely above useless without the medians.
Mod lib
Gary means here and you know
That dont you not.
Why do u spend so much time here if u dont like labor or the pm,
We dont learn anything from you, why not tell us what you want your party to do in stead
Of smart comments, also mr bolt my enjoy your company
May enjoy
He doesn’t want to. I’m pretty sure he’s been involved in this exact same discussion a few months ago, where he was spoon-fed all the data. He doesn’t want to know about it.
You really need some new material, ML. This is all getting very stale.
OZpol Tragic
There has been some dancing damn close to the treason line around the place. I dunno about HD&Qing but I would be happy to see the cart-ride to the tower amid thrown rotten vegetables.
[Mod Lib
Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 9:09 pm | Permalink
What are you talking about rummel?
This is PB. In this universe Gillard is a political genius who is exciting the voters and generating more and more support every month she is in power… ]
Well, I don’t know about the politics of it all, if you can believe the polls, but I’d respectfully suggest that the Aged Care program outlined today, was pretty good policy.
I haven’t seen anything like it from the Liberals side, even though this is a key constituency of theirs.
ModLib
[In this universe Gillard is a political genius who is exciting the voters and generating more and more support every month she is in power…]
Which she is and Abbott isn’t.
Loved your comment about Abbott ‘doing her slowly’ last night.
So slowly he’s made no perceptible progress in 18 months!! Abbott has achieved absolutely zilch, nada, nothing!!
Excep CO2, of course ….
The Indie’s now offering a book deal on Dial M for Murdoch Same page as #260 above.
The Guardian’s still offering one on its Phone Hacking: How The Guardian Broke the Story left of the article @ http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/apr/19/leveson-inquiry-rupert-james-murdoch
The Telegraph doesn’t have much, but it’s offering this glorious only in the UK recession-busting strategy! Petrol panic and warm weather may have kept UK out of recession
Warm weather and widespread petrol panic helped drive the biggest increase in British retail sales in more than a year in March, raising chances that recovering consumer spending may have helped the economy to avoid recession.
[The ONS said that aside from the panic buying of petrol, the unseasonably warm weather in March had driven up sales of clothing and footwear. Yesterday, department store Debenhams announced better than expected profits for the first half of its financial year, which were helped by increased sales of clothing.]
Panic your way out of recession! Gotta LUUUV Da Brits!
[You really need some new material, ML. This is all getting very stale.]
I have to say that the vitriolic reaction I seem to generate when linking to data would suggest it is very effective. No-one has been able to refute it, they just say I should use medians rather than means!
[but I would be happy to see the cart-ride to the tower amid thrown rotten vegetables.]
Puff, in historic tumbrils borrowed from the French, perhaps?
[Loved your comment about Abbott ‘doing her slowly’ last night.
So slowly he’s made no perceptible progress in 18 months!! Abbott has achieved absolutely zilch, nada, nothing!!]
In March last year the Newspoll had the ALP in front.
Now it has the Coalition in front by 12-14 points in the last 2 polls!
LOL 🙂
Mod Lib,
One does not use medians INSTEAD of means, one uses medians WITH means.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-20/industry-applauds-aged-care-reform-plan/3963618
[Industry applauds aged care reform plan
PM
By Naomi Woodley
Updated April 20, 2012 21:14:01
Aged care providers, consumers and unions have all warmly welcomed the Federal Government’s $3.7 billion aged care reform package.
It is not everything the industry wanted but they say it is a substantial first step in giving older Australians the sort of care they want and making the system more sustainable.
The Government says the sweeping changes, which involve means testing of home care from July 2014, are about fairness.]
Sorry, I’m still reeling from the discovery that you think Abbott is intelligent. It’s given me a whole new perspective on you!
Howard as Treasurer
The Trifecta of Misery:
Double-digit interest rates
Double-digit unemployment
and Double-digit inflation
Australia’s worst recession since the Great Depression.
Debt and deficit that climbed year after year.
Howard as PM
* The biggest-taxing government in Australia’s history
* The biggest trade deficit ever recorded
* The longest run of successive monthly trade deficits ever recorded
* Biggest foreign debt in Australia’s history (number 4 in the world in dollar terms)
* Highest levels of household and business debt ever recorded
* The lowest value of the AU$ (2001)
* 94% of the mining boom tax windfall frittered away in just 2.5 years
* Interest rates consistently above the OECD average
* Highest inflation in 16 years
* In mortgage rates, the highest interest component-to-average income level ever recorded (worst interest rate-mortgage stress on record)
* Housing affordability the lowest ever
* Personal bankruptcies the highest in two decades
* Government investment in Tertiary Education in reverse
Feel free to present them then Puff, it certainly would be interesting.
I am yet to be convinced of the value of a median when the maximum number of counts in any government would be the Hawke Keating period of 13 years, with the lowest number of counts being Whitlam’s 3 years. Not sure what value the median would be for an annual outcome like surplus/deficit when there are only 3 counts involved.
Then again, you may be able to convince us…
[Sorry, I’m still reeling from the discovery that you think Abbott is intelligent. It’s given me a whole new perspective on you!]
Its only fair Aguirre!
Your joining in with the bully tactics has given me a whole new perspective on you too!
😉
What you are saying is that you conclude, because you put up your umbrella when it rains your umbrella causes the rain.
Nup
Well, ModLib, the sad thing is that you can only boast about your party’s past achievements, rather than supporting its present policies.
You know – and have admitted here before – that the Liberal party today is not one you can support.
So spout all the statistics you want from the past. It’s all you’ve got.
Leroy @374,
Thanks for that link.
Great to see the level of support.
It will be very interesting to see how the MSM approach the package tomorrow.
I would hope for a fair analysis but I cannot help feeling the package will be attacked by some with “means testing the elderly “front and centre.
I hope Oakes’s story tomorrow is correct and Labor have taken the gloves off!
About time they went for Abbott’s jugular – he’s had centre stage too long!
Oh geez, you’re not going to go all passive-aggressive on me are you?
Bully tactics!
All I have done is point out that your weak result from your badly interpreted data does not support your conclusion and would not pass muster in first year social research methods.
Asking you for stronger supporting evidence is not bullying.
Mod Lib
Yep.
[Oh geez, you’re not going to go all passive-aggressive on me are you?]
R U?
John Hewson, Open Letter to the hammock-dwelling Peter Costello….
[I also doubt you have the skills, experience or self-confidence to have accepted the obvious job after losing the last election, namely shadow treasurer. You’d be lost without Treasury. You may have delivered 11 budgets but ask yourself honestly how many of them were actually yours, rather than Treasury’s. I am told Treasury is now drawing a sharp contrast between your little interest and involvement and that of Wayne Swan.]
22 February 2009
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/you-missed-your-chance-peter-20090221-8e70.html
jenauthor:
Which Oakes article are you referring to?
Jen,
What was that about Oakes? Is there a link?
davidwh @ 303
Yes, just got to get you sorted out on party loyalty and you will be 100% OK
Turnbull admits, in a waffly manner, that the ‘Liberal’ surpluses were basically flukes…
[…”The reality was inevitably the surpluses came in – in those last three years much bigger than forecast – so the government was presented with a lot more money at the eleventh hour, as it were.”]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/turnbull-we-made-economic-mistakes-20120419-1xa2d.html#ixzz1sYgstpkX
[Asking you for stronger supporting evidence is not bullying.]
I have no issue at all with you discussing medians. It is a perfectly reasonable thing to ask, and we could debate the relative values of each parameter. I am yet to be convinced by you that the median is required here.
For example, lets say we had these data:
Government surplus as % GDP: 0, 0, 0, -100 The median would be 0 but would not tell the whole story. The mean would be -25% and it would be correct to extrapolate that the term of government had significant debt, which the median wouldn’t capture.
Whereas if a government had surplus as % GDP: 1,1,1,1,-3 (the last being during the GFC, then the median would reflect the picture of a solid small surplus, except when the external circumstances meant this was not possible.
The point is we are not comparing one government’s individual year’s data (well Cuppa is, but when you have little ammo, you have to shoot whatever you got). We are comparing the averages over 40 years.
I think that is a reasonable thing to do and I see no reason for adjustment. I would be happy if someone decided to adjust for the initial year (so the first year of a government gets attributed to the previous government) for example. However, you need individual year data to do this which I don’t have from Aus Parl Lib data.
jenauthor
You mean this article?
http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/pm-sends-ministers-into-thick-of-battle/story-fn6ck620-1226334715977
BTW, for those who haven’t found them yet, The Scotsman offers some great cartoons. Selection on http://www.scotsman.com/news/cartoon, inc those variations on the Turbine & small aircraft stoush: today’s (top LHS ) & the one for 18 April. 😀 as well as the Ryan Air ones in the right column.
The Indie’s cartoon on Fracking (Wednesday 18 April) @ http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/the-daily-cartoon-760940.html is a beauty.
Sorry neither of the cartoons above have a unique URL; you have to choose them off the thumbnails.
I’m off to bed. Goodnight Night Patrollers.
[Joe Hockey is a brave man in raising the cost of welfare, entitlement mentalities, and sharper means testing as among the most important persistent problems of government. Doubly brave, because his questions pose as many political difficulties in the short, the medium and the long term for his own side of politics as for Labor. Indeed his words may well form the basis of a scare campaign suggesting that a Coalition government will remove, or savagely slice, pensions or other forms of welfare benefit]
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/hockey-mean-or-means-tests-20120420-1xcbe.html
It was “a doodle” {for Peter Costello} “to keep the budget in surplus” “in the noughties”. Ross Gittins, 19 March 2012
http://www.smh.com.au/business/how-both-sides-wrecked-the-tax-base-20120318-1vds2.html
victoria:
Thank you for that. Very interesting.
Not a mention on LL of Tom Watson’s book.
Emma is rising in my estimation, even more. She had an excellent question about the politics of the thing at the end.
Does anyone know how to listen to an iPod through a laptop which isn’t a Mac?