Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.
Leroy
If i am reading it correctly. He argues that those who do not pay enough taxes and receive “entitlement”, vote is not to be trusted. Democracy is flawed and it is doomed
poroti#289, yes the NZ troops at Alamein under Freyberg earned a reputation perhaps superior even to the Australians under Morshead. How painful though to think of things coming to that. My eldest son is in Berlin this month helping his best friend study for the German equivalent of the NSW HSC, rather better than shooting at each other for stupid imperialist purposes!
Bemused 157 we have much in common. 🙂
zoomster
Oh and btw congratulations!
He seems to be pining for the days of restricted franchise, i.e. not everyone can vote. Look at his words when tweeting his own article. I have just sent him a reply, we’ll see if that’s what he actually means…
[Adam Creighton @Adam_Creighton
only taxpayers should vote: Joe Hockey on the right track, if slightly idealistic | The Australian http://bit.ly/HTirQk
8:46 AM – 20 Apr 12
Leroy Leroy @Leroy_Lynch
@Adam_Creighton Do you think Joe Hockey should publicly support your idea that only taxpayers should vote?
Hide conversation
8:54 PM – 20 Apr 12]
Leroy
Does this f wit realise everyone pays tax, even the unemployed. Has he heard of the goods and services tax!!!!!
[Even the most biased media in the free world wouldn’t be able to immunise him from the public opprobrium that would pile up.
But can we withstand the damage he’d cause? I expect he’d likely defy advice from Treasury & Pub Service on a regular basis.]
I’ve no doubt he’d stuff the economy, big time. Wages would start being reduced, and with it the spending power of millions of employees/consumers. Businesses profits (especially those reliant on discretionary spending) would start feeling the pinch, so they would use WorkChoices II to shed staff. And so with rising joblessness, the pressure would be on for even lower wages. So we’d see a vicious cycle of: reduced incomes / living standards, leading to layoffs, leading to reduced wages / living standards, leading to layoffs, leading to reduced wages / living standards, leading to layoffs …. and so on.
While this was going on, the rest of the world would be moving forward. Wages and living standards would be going up (as they are in China right now). Countries would be competing in the new super-fast digital economy. (While we’d be stuck on a goat-track, that being the most we could expect from conservatives). Our competitors would be making hay in the emerging low-emissions global framework, while our progress in that area would be retarded by useless reactionary elements afraid of their own shadow.
And while THAT was going on, the MDB would be drying up http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/liberals-dilute-plan-to-save-the-murray/story-e6frea6u-1226326692082 the wider effects of climate change would be being felt, and our mineral wealth would be shovelled offshore with minimal return for the community.
A dark and worrying scenario, surely. Even a dumbed down and apathetic populace such as ours would connect the dots eventually, and follow the trail of blame to its source.
Today’s Mumble:
[The “Europe bad” narrative has traditionally been a mainly American one: those big-spending, cradle-to-grave welfare countries stifle innovation and job creation and make for boring, conformist societies.
But the nations traditionally associated with all those wacky stories (government salaries for artists comes to mind), for example Sweden and the Netherlands, aren’t the ones in trouble today. In fact many of them are doing the bailing out: it’s the more free-wheeling hedonistic Mediterranean countries that have the horrendous debts.
Yet all are conflated into “Europe”.
Anyway Hockey’s “affordability” justification doesn’t really stand up. Today the central governments of Sweden and Norway run surpluses while (as far as I can tell) every country in Asia runs a deficit.
(And in Singapore and Malaysia, two of our region’s economic leaders, they are now having discussions familiar to people in industrialised countries, about foreigners coming in to do the dirty work the pampered locals refuse to.)
Joe’s speech was really about the vibe and presumably had several targets back home: think tanks, editorial writers in papers such as this one and, in a small way, the general electorate. Possibly most of all the federal Liberal partyroom. ]
Joe stung by facts again.
Cuppa
Someone said to me recently, the realization of this new order, will dawn on people when it is too late.
[What I said was correct, on average, over the last 40 years of Federal governments, the Liberal party beats the ALP on all the major metrics:
Inflation
Interest rates
Unemployment
Real wage rises (non farm)
Economic growth
Surplus vs deficit]
True
The libs have always had higher inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
Howie as treasurer achieved the unique trifecta of
double digit unemployment,
double digit inflation and
double digit interest rates.
No labor government or any Australian government has been able to match that achievement.
Howie also holds another unique record of ten consecutive interest rate increases.
You would think maybe after four or five increases he and tip would have done something, got the message, maybe even after seven or eight, heh?
Hey, something needs to be done, but no Howie and tip ploughed on regardless.
Mod Lib @295
OK…innumerate and disingenuous it is.
Gillard is just like monty. Both tried to defeat there opponents with boredom then went a bridge to far. Arh Arnhem, arh the carbon tax.
What are you talking about rummel?
This is PB. In this universe Gillard is a political genius who is exciting the voters and generating more and more support every month she is in power…
Gillard should try disappearing for a few months to improve her polls. It works for Abbott.
[Jolyon Wagg
Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 9:07 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib @295
OK…innumerate and disingenuous it is.]
Interesting the insults you get when you link to data.
I guess they are data you don’t like, so you have to fight back somehow eh?
Barnett backflips
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-20/government-backflips-on-housing-payment/3963678?section=wa
A passing thought, the Mark Latham article today “Climate change denial not just for fools” where he explains why a more educated and more wealthy population is more likely to distrust scientists on climate change (similar to the half an idea is worse than none concept), runs parallel to stats that show vaccination rates are lower (and childhood disease rates higher) in middle & upper class areas of Australian cities, where people think they know better after “educating” themselves off the internet.
http://www.afr.com/p/lifestyle/review/climate_change_denial_not_just_for_sFAw16a7QU34KIj2tmN4eJ
Not getting many bites tonight eh, ModLib?
So anything happen in the last twenty four hours? (I spent the time reading about travel on the Silk Road…)
Mod Lib they are not insults they are a frank assessment. You clearly know very little about statistics. Have you done any since high school?
Yes you can work out the averages that you referred to but to determine whether the results are meaningful you need to look more closely at the data.
That is what I did in my earlier post.
Which post of mine do you think was looking for a bite?
[Anyway Hockey’s “affordability” justification doesn’t really stand up. ]
Hockey speaks big in opposition but in government he was a failure.
His record as Work Choices minister was woeful, told everyone that they were better off, wished he was on a Work Choices contract himself and refused to release data showing the extent that Work Choices cut living standards.
After Work Choices was repealed he admitted it was a BAD piece of legislation that harmed workers.
The other libs also speak big in opposition but were also failures in government.
Abbott, health minister, bulk billing run down to historic lows and over $1 billion ripped out of public health, opposed initiatives for womens health. Fail.
Bishop, health and aging, womens issues and education minister.
Fail
Aged care run down, $300,000 plus degrees, no initiatives in tackling the skills shortage.
Robb, immigration and citizenship, citizenship test major achievement.
Fail
After 12 years of libs all we were left with was country divided on racists lines and a citizenship test that required the you to know bradmans batting average.
What did all these strident libs in opposition now ever achieve in government and why give this bunch of failures another chance.
They had a once in a lifetime boom and blew it.
Mod Lib,
[I’m pretty sure …
____
I think thats called wishful thinking!]
Well you’re using a term that you don’t know the meaning of: “Wishful thinking”.
You simply cannot deduce from the phrase “I’m pretty sure…” that someone is wishfully thinking.
All these high-falutin’ terms throw you RWers hey.
A bit like how you didn’t know the meaning of the idiom “take with a grain of salt” the other day. And a bit like the likelihood the simpleton Abbott got the words “conservative” and “conservationist” confused.
What I posted is not “wishful thinking” at all. It’s a hedged, though informed and fairly confident prediction, of what would await Abbott if the media were successful in boosting him into the most difficult job in the country. (One for which he’d lack the most basic character requirements, as I outlined earlier). If anything’s wishful, YOU’D want to be hoping that what I predict doesn’t eventuate. 😀
[Jolyon Wagg
Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 9:17 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib they are not insults they are a frank assessment. You clearly know very little about statistics. Have you done any since high school?]
OK, so I know very little about statistics eh? Yes I have “done some” since high school. I guess I should take the assumption that I managed to get to High School as somewhat of a compliment! Hehe 🙂
[Yes you can work out the averages that you referred to but to determine whether the results are meaningful you need to look more closely at the data.
That is what I did in my earlier post.]
So ranking the averages is a better way to analyse 40 years of data than comparing averages?
Well, this one for a start.
Sorry, not in the mood for nibbling bait tonight. I’ll leave it to you. 🙂
[Gillard should try disappearing for a few months to improve her polls. It works for Abbott.]
Any chance you disappear for a while?… to save, scrolling, finger energy?
Mod Lib @324
[So ranking the averages is a better way to analyse 40 years of data than comparing averages?]
No…they are both equally meaningless given the scatter in the raw values and the small sample size, to say nothing of confounding effects like changes in global conditions.
Its a free world Aguirre!
ROFLMyButtOff!
Err aaahhh we want to err arr all options on table errr family
You want children to pay for their parents care?
Err arr blah blah blah
Let’s keep the politics out of it, this is our parents we are talking about, I have asked you about your policies FIVE TIMES, you haven’t given me ONE!
Ahh err blah productivity commission built on what the coalition did er blah.
Is aged care one of the “entitlements” Joe Hockey says we have to learn to do without?
Err splutter ah err blah blah splutter blah……grabs straws.
You have to listen to it, you really do.
[No…they are both equally meaningless given the scatter in the raw values and the small sample size, to say nothing of confounding effects like changes in global conditions.]
Small sample size?
Four decades of economic indicators, with every one showing a better outcome for Coalition versus ALP governments is pretty consistent actually.
The scatter in raw values is exactly why you should take the averages over a long period.
[Gillard should try disappearing for a few months to improve her polls. It works for Abbott.
Any chance you disappear for a while?… to save, scrolling, finger energy?]
Don’t do it rummel. Stick around!
U R right!
The only hope for the ALP is if Gillard goes on leave until election night…
Gee, this panel will be a barrell of laughs..
[Chris Kenny @chriskkenny
On #satagenda Shadow Seniors, Bronwyn Bishop @timwilsoncomau and @samanthamaiden. If Craig Thomson turns up, will take him too. #auspol
]
[The only hope for the ALP is….]
The only hope for the Liberals is the most one-sided media outside of Malaysia and North Korea.
Joe2
[Any chance you disappear for a while?… to save, scrolling, finger energy?]
I like keeping you guys busy.
[The only hope for the Liberals is the most one-sided media outside of Malaysia and North Korea.]
The Sri Lankan media is going to help the Liberals?
Huh?
Puff – I couldn’t believe what a difference it makes when the interviewer actually challenges the Oppn to answer. They’ve had no practice at it for 3 years now so just go to water. I was ROFLMAO as well.
Finn,
Which part of “Bugger off with the footie score” eluded you?
League has a lot to learn from Union. In defence you do not wait for the bloke working up speed to get to you, you go up and ram him.
Freo doing the Saints in Elbonia. I’d love to see that!
Bernard Keane:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/04/20/who-stopped-robinson-the-inhibition-of-responsibility/
[Twenty four hours on, we now have a clearer idea of the circumstances in which Australian human rights lawyer Jen Robinson was stopped at Heathrow Airport on her way home to Australia, told she was on an “inhibited persons” list and that she would not be permitted to board her flight without approval from the Australian High Commission.
But not why she was stopped and on whose authority.
Meantime, lawyers, activists… hell, let’s call them what they are, troublemakers — get harassed without anyone with any authority having to front up and accept responsibility. It’s all part of the constant process of delegitimising dissent.]
Jolyon
Mod lib once told u s she has several degrees,
Thats why i fi d it hard to comprehend why she comes here biting ect. I would of thought she
Has academic things to do that are much more important , i am waiting for her to go through a list of policies
The lberals have, and explaining, why being so so educated she votes, for nothing of note to happen
In the country that gave her, the education, where no up front fees where expected,
I some how mod lib thinks this is all funny
my say,
I prefer to ignore the Sayings of Mod Lib. There is so much inconsistency as to make it not credible.
TLBD: More generic insults I see…I guess the only choice when there is nothing you can point to that is wrong…
According to Kerry Ryan, a researcher in the Swinburne Institute for Social Research, the Howard government made it harder for some nationalities to become citizens, and Labor has made it worse.
http://inside.org.au/citizenship-for-beginners/
Hanging out for Tom Watson on LL. Hope it it won’t be just a book promotion.
Ducky:
When do the Murdochs front Leveson? Has it been announced?
You can’t call Saint Kilda pointless.
And still more discomfort for the Murdochs as another 50 Brits line up to seek damages from NewsIntel Phone hacking: News International faces nearly 50 new claims
Civil claimants now include Sir John Major’s former daughter-in-law, Lord Blencathra and former union leader Andy Gilchrist
[Others seeking damages for alleged invasion of privacy from News Group Newspapers, the News International subsidiary that published the now-closed Sunday tabloid, include former Conservative cabinet minister and chief whip Lord Blencathra and former Fire Brigades’ Union general secretary Andy Gilchrist.
At a case management conference at the high court in London on Friday, Hugh Tomlinson, QC, representing victims of alleged phone hacking, told Mr Justice Vos that he had 44 new cases filed while two others had submitted their claims via another legal representative.
It is expected that up to 200 new claims will be filed over the coming months, Vos told the court in a previous hearing …
He said there were 4,791 potential phone-hacking victims, of which 1,892 had been contacted by the police. The police believed 1,174 were “likely victims” …
Public figures including Cherie Blair, the wife of the former Labour prime minister, Alex Best, the wife of the ex-Manchester United footballer George Best, have already filed lawsuits, and the man wrongly accused of murdering Rachel Nickell, Colin Stagg.]
The number of law firms involved is staggering! At least people other than the Murdochs are making money out of phonehacking.
Sa-weet. Could run longer that Coronation Street!
fess,
Joey on Tuesday and Roo on Wednesday.
[Hope it it won’t be just a book promotion.]
Of course it will, duck, in between phillis interruptus.