Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.
My post at 202 is audio of Twiggy interview
Just kidding.
You gotta love the DT. Not even minor floods. Just warnings.
[Minor flooding as Warragamba bursts
Warragamba Dam
6:09PM RUN-OFF from Sydney’s latest round of wet weather has caused Warragamba Dam to spill, with minor flood warnings issued. ]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/
poroti plus comment 172
Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:34 pm | Permalink
mari
And now the song “Schadenfreude’ .THE highlight being the line
Football players getting tackled.Seeing CEO’s getting shackled
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCQGQ5qBQTA
Poroti you must have the most amazing library, I love what you post especially about our main hates the Murdochs. Can hardly to see CEOS of News Ltd being shackled
ABC TV Sydney News plays it straight, quoting Tony Abbot saying:
[“We’re all environmentalists now.”]
Un-be-f**king-lieveable.
Heard this today
libs will win the next election, the electorate have already made up their minds , much like with Howard in 2007. Nothing around the edges will mater. Labor stuffed up their time in power and will be out again for at least 3 terms. High hopes let down.
From a ex labor mp up north.
[I think of Tony Abbott’s positions on issues as that of a person playing twister. You can hit all the spots for a little while but eventually ………..]
Can I tweet that poroti?
Of course Tony Abbott is a Conservationist. It means he wants to conserve, just as a Conservative wants to conserve.
He wants nothing to change, his tiny mind will explode if required to think.
Mod lib has such gloomy imagination,
Enjoy her hloomy perspetive n life.
And her happiness fai,yre
But gee bet she would rather
be in one of our nursing homes, not tone
Cone on mod lib you know would U S E! it jydt like mei care. Ect
Whst hypocrites you are
Night
People skills
I am the best friend Medicare ever had
We are all environmentalists now
You have to admit, he knows how to hit his weaknesses head on and diffuse them!
Just like medi care ect
Haven’t a clue what you are saying My say…
jenauthor
[Can I tweet that poroti?]
Go for it.
I’m feeling a gut level twinge of uncertainty and for the first time in a long time, it’s not due to the stupidity of the ALP …
We’ll see if it remains over the coming months
[Dr John
Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:59 pm | Permalink
[ Go away you noxious pest. ] @ 180 ]
Wow – Crikey pulling numerous posts right at this moment!!!!!
They missed the #180 referred to above however, which with many others has been deleted.
Have Crikey reacted enough to potential anti-privacy litigation and potential criminal action?
We will see!
Joe 6 pack the bearer of imaginary friends,
You said so e weeks ago the very opposite.’
Drinking with a few mates, they want vote for to tony,
Remember that. I do
Thanks mari, my fingers pkay tricks on me
Mari we are thimking of a cruise in the southwest of uk, then to france, just had an email from our travel sgent. Its on land and criuse in between,
You know what Abbott’s like with big words. That is, words longer than one syllable. He’s got “conservationist” confused with “conservative”. Best he stick with kindergarten talk – Great Big Tax – and the like… doesn’t want to strain the brain…
Cuppa:
You make a mistake by underestimating Abbott.
I don’t want him to be PM, but not because he isn’t smart, he is.
Very.
180
Thats still there thats just me asking mari about HER link
Which i then clicked on,
Dr John, I’ve replied to your email. I’m not going to allow any of this to play out on PB.
Just watching an item on NSW 7.30 (state) about bikies and tattoo parlours.
Can one of the Bludgers please explain to me exactly what is the fascination with tattoo parlours among criminal bikie gangs?
Drive-by shootings, murders, disappearances, arson, standover tactics etc.
What’s the deal?
[Heard this today
libs will win the next election, the electorate have already made up their minds , much like with Howard in 2007. Nothing around the edges will mater. Labor stuffed up their time in power and will be out again for at least 3 terms. High hopes let down.
From a ex labor mp up north.]
Well, if he says it, it must be so. May as well give up now.
[What’s the deal?]
24 hour shop fronts to sell stuff.
_
179
my say Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:45 pm | Permalink
mari Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:17 pm | Permalink
Space Kidette Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Permalink Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
Clip via @wrightgb , Coalition canvasses system of making kids pay for parents aged care (at 4:00 min mark) http://bit.ly/J0CDQ1
Loved it I couldn’t stop
Seems to be missing
See dr john, the post is still there you must of mis read, hapoens easy enougj
180
Still there
[not because he isn’t smart, he is.
Very.]
Yes, yes, of course he is.
BoF’s laws on patched gangs will achieve absolutely nothing.
Hes certainly doing a right little number on the incumbent (having seen off her predecessor)…
[Well, if he says it, it must be so. May as well give up now.]
Passing on info Gary , but probably pretty close to the mark.
ModLib
[You make a mistake by underestimating Abbott.
I don’t want him to be PM, but not because he isn’t smart, he is.
Very.]
I’d call it rat cunning!
Abbott is not a smart operative.
His numerous minders are.
180 180
mari Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:17 pm | Permalink
Space Kidette Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Permalink Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
Clip via @wrightgb , Coalition canvasses system of making kids pay for parents aged care (at 4:00
Loved it I couldn’t stop laughing
[Hes certainly doing a right little number on the incumbent (having seen off her predecessor)…]
It’s all based on an edifice of bullshit and whether he wins the next election or not, that edifice of bullshit will come crashing down.
SK – thanks for the Faine interview link. Like mari I cracked up – CFW was all over the shop and I didn’t know Faine had it in him to challenge a Liberal like that. Top listening for a Labor supporter for a change,
[Passing on info Gary , but probably pretty close to the mark.]
A lot still to happen.
A comment someone posted on Their Drum Unleashed…
[We have been told by Abbott himself that he is not a “tech head” and is inclined to shoot off his mouth at random.
We have seen that his grasp on History is tenuous.
We know that he studied Law and Economics at University but never practised in these fields professionally.
He is a failed seminarian so his grasp of metaphysics may be suspect.
So what can he do?
He can swim, he can box, he can ride a bicycle. He can stay awake for 36 hours. He can put three words together – though not in sentences.
By the way, what are his mathematical qualifications?]
Bugger off with the football scores. I’m watching WIN.
spur212
Uncertainty in which direction?
Confessions:
You may be right!
Whether it is him or his advisers, they are wiping the floor with Gillard and her advisers.
Joe you talk to 6 other people you get a different answer.
Some times’people agree with you though just to make conversation
I know would not but some’people do that
I think people are attributing too much influence to Abbott for the polls. He’s despised like Gillard. I put it down to the carbon tax. Let’s see how that plays out.
Mod .ib u know thats not correct,’its wno gets the best media of the day
Julia does not do stuntsl
She does policy it boring, for the media
But it was in years gone by their duty to inform
[Mexican president Felipe Calderon is poised to approve the world’s second comprehensive climate change bill, after the country’s Senate yesterday rubberstamped the wide-ranging legislation.
The Senate, which had last year approved an earlier version of the bill, voted through the legislative package after the country’s lower house approved the bill last week.
The bill is broadly similar to the UK’s Climate Change Act and will require future governments to meet regular emissions reduction targets with the goal of ultimately cutting carbon emissions 50 per cent by 2050.]
[It includes additional targets requiring the government to cut emissions 30 per cent by 2020, and ensures that 24 per cent of electricity is generated from renewable sources by 2024.
Significantly, the bill also provides the government with a raft of new powers that will allow it to introduce policies designed to ensure that emission reduction targets are met.]
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2169177/mexico-senate-approves-historic-climate-change
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/breaking-news/wilkie-government-pokies-reform-dance-continues/story-e6freonf-1226334703154
[Wilkie, government pokies reform dance continues
From: AAP
April 20, 2012 6:43PM
NEGOTIATIONS on poker machine reform are continuing after Community Services Minister Jenny Macklin wrote to independent MP Andrew Wilkie.
Mr Wilkie had set a today deadline for the minister to respond to his requests to discuss the government’s legislation.
He wants laws to specify that poker machines must be “flick of a switch” ready for a future government to activate mandatory precommitment technology.
Ms Macklin claims the government’s legal advice says the draft laws already achieve that aim.
The two have been negotiating since late March after the government opted to delay debate on draft laws.
In January, Prime Minister Julia Gillard reneged on a deal with Mr Wilkie to roll out mandatory precommitment technology to all poker machines by 2014 in favour of a trial in the ACT.
Mr Wilkie said he was now considering the contents of Ms Macklin’s letter and deciding his next move.
Previously, he warned the government he would be a “ticking time bomb” over the next 18 months if they didn’t amend the laws to his satisfaction.]
Mod Lib:
It’s pretty clear to anyone who’s ever watched the two of them in press conferences and interviews that the PM has far more substance than Abbott.
I’ve long been of the view that Gillard needs to rely less on her advisors, because the natural person she is is someone the public instinctively warms to. Abbott OTOH….
[By the way, what are his mathematical qualifications?]
No one cares
gary,
you always bring us back to earth.
Thank you. Night all
[I think people are attributing too much influence to Abbott for the polls.]
So do I.
I also think the state of the world economy and Australia’s patchwork economy is also playing out in the polls. Who do you blame when you’re feeling financially threatened? The government of course and particularly one that’s bringing in a GBNT.
I like to think of the government as Monty in the desert.
Not a particularly brilliant general. Certainly not ferocious. Afraid of casualties due to his experiences in WW-I. But he slowly assembled a major army that by sheer force of numbers – and with a lot of stuff ups in the meantime – could do nothing else but wipe the Afrika Corps from the face of the continent.
Abbott is waging a one-man guerilla war. His face is everywhere. His determination is unquestioned. The propaganda is good, even brilliant. But up against a government that flexes its considerable muscle, slowly, painfully but remorselessly he is ultimately meat for tank treads.