Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 6 of 71
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  1. I see. The point of rugby league is to knock out the bloke with the ball so that he drops it. Right?

  2. [Possum Comitatus ‏ @Pollytics
    It’s a weird world when of the 8 “active” and 6 “local” SkyNews channels, the one with the least value is the main channel]

    I first got Foxtel about 6 years ago, and have noticed a considerable decline in the standard of its reporting in that period.

    I am still gobsmacked that some network ‘genius’ thought it was a good idea to give both Chris Kenny and Richo their own shows.

  3. confessions:

    I know you think Gillard is a paragon of political virtue.

    You say she needs to be “natural”. In the 2010 election campaign she told us she was releasing “Real Julia”. She has been around for decades…who is she?

  4. [By the way, what are his mathematical qualifications?

    No one cares]

    You don’t think people will be wondering? Someone aspiring to the position of PM needs to be numerate. They’ve got to deal with Budgets, Statistics and all those hard things.

    Worryingly, his former boss (John Hewson) said Abbott is “innumerate”.

  5. (, it’s not due to the stupidity of the ALP …)

    There is alot
    Going on over seas, talk of israel, greece, ect. ‘
    I have bee feelng ,’ita to quite for comfort, like somethi g is brewing else wnere

    Cannot shake it off

  6. [chris murphy ‏ @chrismurphys
    @jot_au Abbott’s team promise reduced welfare, increased nanny slaves 4 affluent & tax cuts 4 $bnaire pigs gorging our resources.Whoa!]

  7. You gotta love it! 26 blokes playing in Australia divide into two teams. Bit like picking teams in the schoolyard.

  10. Just saw this, how come on Channel 9 is 6-0 Kiwi’s way 😉

    [Kangaroos prove too strong for Kiwis – Courage. It’s a word that can mean many things. In times of war, it means charging enemy trenches and protecting your mates from fire.

    In many ways, courage in a game of rugby league isn’t much different. Sometimes courage, through individuals playing through injury, can inspire their team to victory.

    At others it doesn’t. And despite all the best efforts of Kiwis debutants Shaun Johnson and Josh Hoffman, the Kiwis continued their Anzac test hoodoo at Eden Park last night, going down 20-12.]

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/league/6782997/Kangaroos-leading-Kiwis-at-halftime

  12. Interesting observations on how mainstream commentators are failing to understand the Norway killer and his intentions.

    http://left-flank.org/2012/04/20/language-violence-politics-breivik-trial-puts-liberal-democracy-to-the-test/

    [Language, violence & politics: Breivik trial puts liberal democracy to the test
    by Dr_Tad · April 20, 2012

    With Anders Breivik’s trial underway, Left Flank will be analysing the politics both here and at the Overland website. Below we reprint the first of two parts of an abridged extract from the e-book that Guy Rundle, Elizabeth Humphrys and I edited last year, On Utøya: Anders Breivik, Right Terror, Racism and Europe. The chapter examines how some mainstream voices have responded to the rise in extremist language, and how the Left can formulate a response. If you haven’t yet done so, buy and download the book via the Amazon stores in the United Kingdom or the United States (if you don’t have a smartphone/iPad/Kindle, you can read it on your PC with a free Kindle app).

    It seems a fitting place to start because if the first few days of the trial have proven anything it’s that the efforts to provide the terrorist with as ‘normal’ a trial as possible are being used by him to turn it into a platform for his propaganda and to legitimate his defence of ‘necessity’. Even if Breivik ends up getting what the criminal law would suggest is a ‘just’ outcome (found sane, responsible and guilty, and locked up in perpetuity), the liberal democratic response to his fascist political strategy is likely to be found seriously wanting.]

  13. Mod Lib:

    She is the person people meet and instinctively warm to.

    Have you given up shilling for Abbott already? That didn’t take long. 😆

  14. [I first got Foxtel about 6 years ago, and have noticed a considerable decline in the standard of its reporting in that period.]

    I could never give a perpetual money lifeline to the enemy.

  16. [But up against a government that flexes its considerable muscle, slowly, painfully but remorselessly he is ultimately meat for tank treads.]

    Unfortunately. this is one thing that that are not doing. They have the opportunity to flex muscles but seem afraid to do so.

    Plus Monty v rommell was a great match up.
    Monty replaced the timid Auchinleck.
    Things may have turned out diff in africa but really a sideshow to the whole ww2

  17. Gary @249,

    I agree.

    The constant stream of negative stories re price increases especially electricity is playing a major part.

    As well the effect of the banks increasing rates in February when the RBA left them on hold must not be underestimated. People have become used to the RBA controlling the upward and downward movement. They relied on the RBA for that. The increase by the banks has put doubt in peoples minds now. A lack of certainty.

    I was surprised when the other banks did not follow the ANZ this month. If I was to guess I would think that perhaps the banks may have started to realise the negative effect their actions caused with the ANZ the last to catch on. A step too far in the fragile environment.

    It would not surprise me if the banks followed the RBA closely from here on in. They may not cut by as much if the RBA cuts but I do not think that in the medium term they will increase rates again if the RBA holds.

    Uncertainty leads to fewer people taking out loans. Not good for the banks bottom line. I think they will now toe the line simply for their own benefit.

  19. [I could never give a perpetual money lifeline to the enemy.]

    There is no TV where I live without it.

    I have to have Telstra services for the same reason.

  20. [The Finnigans
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 8:15 pm | Permalink
    Just saw this, how come on Channel 9 is 6-0 Kiwi’s way ]

    Thanks spoiler for the people that may have been interested in watching the game.

  21. I’m pretty sure that were Abbott to get into the Lodge (thanks media), and were he to put into place his Dickensian Banana Republic agenda, he would quickly become the most despised PM of all time. A condition that would naturally spill over onto the so-called Liberal Party. Especially if his time in ‘office’ were to coincide with a significant domestic economic downturn. Even the most biased media in the free world wouldn’t be able to immunise him from the public opprobrium that would pile up.

  24. Read this carefully. Does it sound to you like Adam actually would rather we DIDN’t have democracy, or that at least not everyone got to vote?

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/joe-hockey-on-the-right-track-if-slightly-idealistic/story-fnc2jivw-1226333744455

    [Joe Hockey on the right track, if slightly idealistic

    by: Adam Creighton
    From: The Australian
    April 20, 2012 12:00AM

    HATS off to Joe Hockey for having the courage to point out Australia’s welfare state needs to be dramatically curbed. ]

  26. [Even the most biased media in the free world wouldn’t be able to immunise him from the public opprobrium that would pile up.]

    Yes, Cuppa, sometimes even the greatest spinmasters have to admit that shit stinks.

  29. Leroy,

    But I haven’t seen anyone in the LNP with balls enough to outline exactly what is being cut to make way for Nanny welfare for the wealthy.

  32. [Even the most biased media in the free world wouldn’t be able to immunise him from the public opprobrium that would pile up.]

    But can we withstand the damage he’d cause? I expect he’d likely defy advice from Treasury & Pub Service on a regular basis.

  33. Great to see those involved in OA care are so supportive of the Govt and realise we have financial constraints for now

    [Alzheimers Australia ‏ @AlzheimersAus
    @mark_butler_mp the measures to to take action on #dementia are welcome in the context of a difficult #budget #auspol #health
    Retweeted by Victoria Collins ]

  36. @leehsienloong PM Lee, Australia Liberal Party is thinking of your Maintenance of Parents Act where children pay for their aged parents

  38. [ Joe Hockey on the right track, if slightly idealistic

    by: Adam Creighton
    From: The Australian
    April 20, 2012 12:00AM

    HATS off to Joe Hockey for having the courage to point out Australia’s welfare state needs to be dramatically curbed. ]

    Jesus.

    While Joe windbags around with no actual examples of what he would cut (only examples of what he would not cut) the government gets on and does it, against trenchant opposition… from Joe!

    What kind of effing world are we living in?

  39. Joe6Plus
    [Monty v rommell was a great match up. Monty replaced the timid Auchinleck.
    pack]
    Remembering of course that in Rommel’s personal diaries he said the the second sheepen shagger expeditionary force was the unit he most wanted to destroy. Apparently, according to Rommel, they had a nasty habit of being able to get their equipment through “impossible terrain” and attack.

  42. Been ‘off air’ for the last twenty four hours due to unexpected problems connecting to the NBN satellite.

    I blame Julia Gillard, of course (it’s the new black).

    One of the troubles associated with being one of the first in Australia to get connected!

  43. [HATS off to Joe Hockey for having the courage to point out Australia’s welfare state needs to be dramatically curbed.]

    What a joke. Especially it was the Govt that Hockey belongs to that introduced, encouraged & entrenched the Middle Class welfare mentality.

    It’s a bit like the arsonist complains about the bush fire.

  44. J6P # 266, you probably know this already, various people including Liddell Hart have argued that Auchinleck was hard done by and underrated

    you might also recall Rundstedt’s assessment of Monty as relayed in Liddell Hart’s interviews “The Other Side of the Hill”, WTTE very cautious but the only field marshal in WW2 who didnt lose a battle (Gerd must have forgotten about operation market garden there of course!)

    Personally I tend to think of Julia as Alan Brooke (clearly the best British commander of the C20th in whatever role ) reincarnated in much more fetching form …

  45. [Jolyon Wagg
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 8:28 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib

    No response to my 3295 on the last thread? I will have to be more inflammatory.]

    Hmmm, had to go back to find this one:

    [Jolyon Wagg
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 1:40 am | Permalink
    Mod Lib @3254

    On the face of it your figures are correct….but to suggest that the average real housing interest rate is a useful way of comparing the performance of Labor and Liberal Governments is laughable.

    On that basis the last five Australian governments in order of increasing merit are

    Hawke/Keating (6.9%)
    Howard (4.6%)
    Rudd/Gillard (4.2%)
    Fraser (0.0%)
    Whitlam (-3.4%)

    So Whitlam claims top spot, Howard second last and Hawke/Keating last. As I recall that is not the conventional wisdom.

    Only somebody innumerate or disingenuous (or both!) would try and use these figures the way that you have.]

    Remember reading that now! It did give me a little chuckle, but I thought you must have been pulling my leg and not being serious.

    If you were indeed being serious, then my response is:

    What I said was correct, on average, over the last 40 years of Federal governments, the Liberal party beats the ALP on all the major metrics:
    Inflation
    Interest rates
    Unemployment
    Real wage rises (non farm)
    Economic growth
    Surplus vs deficit

  46. Leroy,

    The LNP, big miners, big business, big tobacco etc with a compliant media who want to kill the party that wants to install the NBN (a news killer app) have been waging a war on democracy since 2007.

  50. [Cuppa
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 8:23 pm | Permalink
    I’m pretty sure …]

    I think thats called wishful thinking!

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