Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 71
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  1. Well I thought labor policy got a good run despite one major problem. Gillard is so boring to watch, I wished she would sneeze just for a change of tune. Does she every get excited about anything? as every announcement is like she is at a funeral.

  3. Puff

    The government has not got $32 million worth of advertising publicity on the Carbon Price. So as usual the Libs have got it wrong.

  4. rummel

    Does she every get excited about anything? as every announcement is like she is at a funeral.

    She is; the Lib’s.

  7. davidwh @ 107

    Very true SK. I have to admit I enjoyed studying economics, financial management and stats. I think I’m a bit strange.

    Count me as strange too. I did a Bachelor of Economics majoring in Economics and Economic Statistics. Later did an MBA with lots of Finance. 😀

  8. Puff

    As long as they got a whiff of a massive spend to come. Hopefully of GST proportions.
    Do not expect Joe Cocker or Meatloaf though.

  12. Roaldan1000,

    [Many of the old style Libs have been thinking they can win with Tony, then restrain him afterwards, back away from tax on business, direct action etc and go back to more traditional Liberal policies. Won’t happen if he wins a massive victory, so they have to take him down before poll.

    Might be counter-intuitive, but Abbott could actually become a victim of his own success as a big poll buffer might convince Hockey/Turnbull they can make change and still win comofortably.]

    I should think a few of them would also be worried about how the pressures of high office would affect him. He would be required to speak on his feet all day every day (a weak point). He’d be constantly having to negotiate with all manner of people and groups (another weak point). And he would (theoretically, at least) have to be open and accountable to the media, as well as patient with pushy reporters. We saw with the Mark Riley ‘incident’ how he comes undone under unscripted questioning. Think about the intensity of questioning (again, theoretically) he’d face as PM.

    Surely the prospects must keep many lying awake at night in dread of what he could do to the Liberal ‘brand’ if it all becomes too much for him at some point or points…. 😀

    PS: Good to see you posting here again, by the way.

  13. [poroti
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 5:57 pm | Permalink
    mari

    You are so right one of the people I am visiting isn’t too far from there, and he hates Conservatives over their (Tories so libs here)

    Perhaps PB could take up a collection so if you drop in to see them you can bribe the choir master to insert Hallelujah into their program ]

    Love that! THe person I am visiting was my old boss who I reported to, so I guess mush be unusual as I said hates the Tories, must be why we got on so well

  14. Ah Finns

    [why do you think i did BISONs. i was FUCKING maddddd too]

    But, mate, that’s the very best sort of madness! Ask anyone! 👿

    Luuuuuuv y’r BISONs Finns.

    Ever think of sending them to Jools & Wayne? Big poster-sized office copies. Maybe George can help! 😀

  15. [The government has not got $32 million worth of advertising publicity on the Carbon Price. So as usual the Libs have got it wrong.]

    Why do Liberals get the mathematics wrong?

    Because this is how they do their adding up:

    {Cartoon from the Punch website, 20 April 2012}

  16. Space Kidette
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Permalink
    Possum Comitatus ‏ @Pollytics

    Clip via @wrightgb , Coalition canvasses system of making kids pay for parents aged care (at 4:00 min mark) http://bit.ly/J0CDQ1

    Loved it I couldn’t stop laughing

  17. The Australian were orgasmic over Telstra’s comments on the NBN. But of course missed why David Thodey was like a pig in poo.

    Telstra has its contract, it has sold the copper network, it is owned by NBN Co. So is Turnbull going to sell the node to home copper back to Telstra, will they buy it?

    Oh and how is Mr Turnbull going to fund his fibre to the node policy? Will he keep the Liberal Party policy of subsidising telcos to deliver the service or is he saying he will keep NBN Co?

    I wonder if a journalist will ask him? I will not hold my breath.

  19. “… they shouldn’t assume that all of the goodies that are associated with the carbon tax will go” Tony Abbott 02/04/2012 http://soundcloud.com/user8766762/they-shouldnt-assume-that-all

    “I won’t reduce the tax, change the tax, or redesign the tax. I will repeal the tax” Tony Abbott 20/04/2012 http://www.news.com.au/national/tony-abbott-promises-to-get-rid-of-carbon-pricing-scheme-within-six-months-of-being-elected-to-power/story-e6frfkw9-1226334281970

    Can’t keep a consistent message

  21. Thanks Cuppa.

    I think the fear some Libs have is not about the cosmetic issues. They are worried that Tony is actually going to do exactly what he has been saying and put in place policies that are contrary to old style Liberal philosophy. Like Labor the Liberal traditionalists they saw him as an empty vessel who would either screw up eventually after getting them into a winning position, or would be easily reigned in.

    Remember, he was elected by accident. Now they are starting to worry he really could get all the way to the PM-ship and carry a wave of new style Libs with him. Not sure the old guard is going to stand for that.

  22. mari

    Prepare for an overdose of schadenfreude.

    [Legal campaign against News Corp in US gathers momentum.

    Rupert Murdoch’s grip on his media empire was dramatically challenged yesterday after his company was labelled a “toxic shadow state” which launched a dirty tricks campaign against MPs and now faces a salvo of phone-hacking claims in the United States]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/hacking-scandal-the-net-tightens-on-the-murdochs-7661722.html

  25. Spur

    [I know William doesn’t cover the “Think Will Win” question on Morgan polls, but the result of this phone poll tells a story

    Think Will Win:

    ALP 14.5 (-17) L/NP 76.5 (+19.5) since the last phone poll in February]

    those of us who follow market theory know that contrarian positions can be very profitable, cause the herd does turn – sometimes on the most trivial of reasons.

    Before this happens, we see things like capitulation selling, margin calls, paper fortunes lost – and then something happens, and everyone rushes to the exits. Lots of profit if you can forecast the timing.

    The key metrics vary, but the better ones are based on measuring the increase in everyone thinking and acting the same way.

  26. [20/04/12
    The Gillard Government is set to waste millions more of taxpayers’ dollars on a ‘phase 2’ carbon tax advertising campaign assault on the very same taxpayers, Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for the Environment Simon Birmingham said today ]

    It’s L_A_W, and complicated, too, with many offsets and compensations offered which not only should, but MUST be set out for the punters.

  30. mari Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

    Space Kidette Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Permalink Possum Comitatus @Pollytics

    Clip via @wrightgb , Coalition canvasses system of making kids pay for parents aged care (at 4:00 min mark) http://bit.ly/J0CDQ1

    Loved it I couldn’t stop laughing

    Seems TO BE MISSING 🙂

  33. GG

    There is definitely something in the water at Liberal land. Turnbull and Hockey both critical of How many spent during Howard years. What is up?

  36. So roald1000

    Very confused, so some one like joe hockey, would not have nannies, or other such things
    Sory forget every thi g else abbott has promised.

    So is that the different style ‘or philosophy.

    So its the dog eat dog
    Thing real libs want, survuval if the fittest, not nannies

  39. Who on the front bench are the real ‘liberals thatcher style.
    .
    Andrews, bishop the older, the nationals.’, turnbull, gosh i cannot think of their names,

    Pyne i think he would like the nanny scheme,

  41. [Schtang ABC & conservatives what a surprise RT @KevinWilde: A big loss to the ABC today with Mark Tobin quitting to work for @barryofarrell #nswpol]

  42. [I noted that it was significant that our side of politics, having governed Australia well and responsibly for nearly twelve years, is nonetheless prepared to reflect on how we might have done a good job even better.]

    Gee Talcum – almost perfect, but you’re sure you can do better … tugger.

  45. my say
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:45 pm | Permalink
    mari Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

    Space Kidette Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Permalink Possum Comitatus @Pollytics

    Clip via @wrightgb , Coalition canvasses system of making kids pay for parents aged care (at 4:00 min mark) http://bit.ly/J0CDQ1

    Loved it I couldn’t stop laughing

    Seems TO BE MISSING
    Click on the link the green part —JOcDQI

  46. [rummel
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:01 pm | Permalink
    Well I thought labor policy got a good run despite one major problem. Gillard is so boring to watch, I wished she would sneeze just for a change of tune. Does she every get excited about anything? as every announcement is like she is at a funeral.]

    She has been speaking at her own political funeral for years and the current polling just confirms that trend ++

  47. I think Labor should use the Conservationist tag so beloved by Abbott now against him. The Conservationist who wants to spend more to get the same result. Making sure the rich pay the least.

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