Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.

Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.

Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.

UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.

Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).

On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.

Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.

UPDATE (16/4): This week’s Essential Research has the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 57-43 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network is up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There is also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,086 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdown”

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  4. Roy Orbison – the “8” “)” combo turned into a smiley is one of the most annoying things about smiley culture. GDI, I want to make a list, let me make a GD list!

  11. “No Roy, I’m talking about – at the same playing time of their careers”

    That’s a bit of a stretch as well. Coote finished in about 1975. Pringle would have played a year or two at best before that. Still, it is a terrible thing that has happened to him.

  12. Seems CanDo will have to DoWithout one.

    Going on Queensland politics, I’d say that said minister will be, miraculously, resurrected in about twelve months.

  13. mm

    There is an awful lot of slop in the Mr Newman show.

    It is the sort of thing you get when he is an autocratic micromanager who believes that he doesn’t need good process because, ‘We’ve been processed to death.’

  18. I suggest after immolating 2gb the ground it sat on be dug up and dropped out to sea in a chaff bag. You canna be too careful with evil spirits.

  21. a massive cabinet

    I have a son who is a cabinet maker. Two weeks ago he just rehinged our cabinets (24-year old kitchen).

    Campbell will have no such easy recourse.

  24. [Condolences to you and your family]

    Oh god, what’s happened? Sorry, but I’ve been at work today and don’t usually read back through comments.

  25. [ Dr John

    I did see a very stunning Delta Goodrem at the airport. I pointed her out to Mrs D who said “Yuck, look how skinny she is!” ]

    Diogenes – she is considered a 3/10 in my suburb given the selective breeding.
    Also she was dating a dumb Greek tennis player and that reduces another 1.5!

  26. DTT , where do you get your average old lady living with the A/C running for 6 hrs ? Darwin ? My mother 89 yrs old has a A/C , gas cooker and solar hot water system and a new large Freezer box big enough to fit a cow in it and her bill was $96.01 for 3 months. Her old chest freezer (over 35 yrs old ) died and the new one is a 5 star and has cut power use by about 40 %. I showed her the GHG chart on her bill and worked out the Carbon tax bill will be only about $50 a year and pensioners get over $300 a year. Tony’s great big tax won’t work at my mum’s place or mine, as i have solar hotwater (16yrs )and just got 1.9kW solar panels fitted last month.Get my new meter on Thursday fitted.

  27. Roy

    ‘Bring back the Bears’!

    One of my favourite things was to go to North Sydney Oval to watch the home ‘game’ with ‘manly’.

  28. “suggest after immolating 2gb the ground it sat on be dug up and dropped out to sea in a chaff bag. You canna be too careful with evil spirits.”

    What did the sea ever do to you? Unless you want to do it Neddy Smith style. Ever see Blue Murder? See ya later, c…
    They don’t make them like old Ned any more. Thank God.

  29. Be careful burning down 2GB at 368 Sussex Street – you may cause associated fire and water damage at 377 Sussex Street – NSW ALP headquarters…. then again

  34. [I did see a very stunning Delta Goodrem at the airport]

    More interested in the ‘Wonder Woman’ girls – assuming the were …

  36. [That beats Koutsantonis’ record. He lasted 47 days as Minister for Road Safety.]
    Now that is a very, very familiar name! 😀

  37. but in more upsetting news for QLD today the Reds have signed Richard Graham from the Force to replace current coach Link Mackenzie! Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!

  38. bluegreen:

    Get in line. I recall observing way back when that if elected, a Newman govt would be at Barnett administration levels of incompetence.

    Amusingly, Rob Johnson in WA (arguably the worst minister ever), has survived his Qld counterpart. 😆

  39. Boerwar – when you are Sydney, we can lunch at Ripples next to North Sydney pool, home to the 1938 Empire Games, then wander across the bridge to the Botanical Gardens, Farm Cove and the Art Galley, then an early dinner at the Summit (if there is a restaurant still there) and then off to Angel Place for a baroque concert.

    You will be a changed person singing Sydney’s praises for ever

  40. More detail in their current web story
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/newman-dumps-police-ministerdavid-gibson-over-driving-allegation/story-e6freoof-1226328175581

    [Newman dumps Police Minister David Gibson over driving allegation
    by: Steven Wardill
    From: The Courier-Mail
    April 16, 2012 9:06PM

    POLICE Minister David Gibson has been forced to resign by Premier Campbell Newman over allegations he drove a motor vehicle while his licence was suspended. ]

  41. bg

    You get triple AAA rating on Bludger for predicting correctly cockup by Mr Newman on budget timing and the likely cockups due to inexperience.

    You join the pantheon of Gus who was able, in real time, to disabuse us of the lies being told by certain parties in relation to Fukushima and BB who did the early prediction job on News Corp’s farnarkling.

  42. North Sydney was a horrible place to watch football from and even worse to play on. Probably the sole reason that Norths last won the comp in ’22. Fancy having to play on that mowed macadam for half a season.

    That said, it is a national treasure. Always wanted to see a kid fall out of the Moreton Bay fig following a conversion of a Kenny Irvine try under the posts. But because I watched the vast majority of my football at beautiful, cosmopolitan Redfern Oval, where I once saw a fourteen gallon drum being used as a urinal inside the toilets, I never did get the chance.

  45. Roy Orbison – Being there once a year was great. Redfern Oval – bloody trendy cosmo place as far as I was told.

    🙂

  48. bg

    It has scarcity value.

    There have been only three gold stars in about four years of Bludgerdom, I believe. Other people have been right about various things after the event, while some have been right before the event by accident.

    But being right before the evident because you actually understood what was going to happen is as rare as hens’ teeth and deserves a gold star.

  50. CTar1

    [ I did see a very stunning Delta Goodrem at the airport

    More interested in the ‘Wonder Woman’ girls – assuming the were …]

    Delta’s outfit left less to the imagination than the lady in the Wonder Woman costume.

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