Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.

Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.

Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.

UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.

Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).

On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.

Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.

UPDATE (16/4): This week’s Essential Research has the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 57-43 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network is up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There is also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,086 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdown”

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  1. Center

    [Before Origin, QLD I think only managed to ever win 1 series in like about a thousand years, when John Lang was hooker.

    I suppose you guys have produced Fatty Vautin ]

    Yep, in them days the NSW side was about three quarters of ex Qlders, like Rassmussen etc and it was virtually Qld V Qld.

    It became a different story when they became origin games and all the Qlders then played for Qld.

  5. Poroti at 4633

    Onour NZ honeymoon in 1999, my wife and saw tv ads encouraging families to improving the counting and adding skills of their children by reference to the number of dead possums seen on or by the road

  6. Diogenes,

    You know better than I what records are kept.

    Names, addresses, next of kin and contact numbers are a good start.

  7. TLBD aka ….
    [There are facts and there are suppositions. The PBtariat is rather fond of facts.]
    😆 Tempted to say more …. 😆

  8. Diogenes – when in Melbourne you only had one PB comment and in reference to the numbers of beggars on the street!
    Did you get back to Adelaide without being mugged?

  10. PtMD

    [there has not been a male in my family line with a height less than 6 foot for about a century.]

    In contrast my family are very Irish despite being here since the mid 1800’s – so 5′ 9″ sort of stuff and skiney as rakes! I have a 2nd cousin, Dallas, who was 6’5″ when he was 15 and a promising Aussie Rules player but did an ankle in – very busy in NW Vic working out how much Canola he can stuff in on the back of the floods at the moment …

    Still saying I’m just a an AKA for BW and TLDB .

  13. [I don’t know where it comes from but we have height, Anglo-celtic style physical beauty, brains and a tendency to go a bit bonkers.]

    Puff – I’ll get into trouble for this but it comes from South Aussies having come from English/Scottish/Irish stock who arrived unshackelled and set the scene forever with the ‘Col Light on the hill’!!

  14. [ there has not been a male in my family line with a height less than 6 foot for about a century. ]

    Males in my family have been nicknamed ‘horse’ since 1640!

  19. 184cm here (going down: haberdashery, perfumery … Loved the opening to Are You Being Served) (first over six foot). Sons 185 and 187.

  20. [Brian Mc
    Posted Monday, April 16, 2012 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    Bushfire @ 4507.

    That is a very good point you raise there. Your argument that a widescale injection of medium-sized outputs of “private” electricity into the system is obviously a very intelligent way to go, what really puzzles me is that the government, its advisers and the myriad of talent in the Public Service do not see this. And why don’t they reach out to their and our CSIRO and/or University Departments to collect ideas and strategies like this.]

    Right on, Brian Mc. As I understand it, the biggest cost challenge to electricity companies is laying out the capacity to cater for peak demand. Largely that is a few daytime hours needed to supply airconditioning in the summer months. The cost of that is considerably greater than expenses imposed by carbon emissions charging (which can in any case be offset by greater usage of cleaner energy options).

    If a system was developed encouraging solar panels at homes, businesses and farms, the extra investment for peak capacity required might well be avoided.

    I agree it is something universities and the CSIRO should be working on. As I understand it, some uni research (NSW or ANU?) is well advanced on developing solar-powered airconditioning commercially. That could be a boon both to the electricity industry and to many consumers (eg, elderly citizens who will need it to survive some summer heatwaves.)

  21. Dr John

    [Males in my family have been nicknamed ‘horse’ since 1640!]

    No opposed digits at all ?

    ps PtMD – Glad that Dr John has contributed his best (maybe his all but not enough). Do we have to do all the work here tonight?

  22. Gaffhook I’m glad I have never heard of Rassmussen, I gather I’m younger than you lol.

    How did Milne go on 7.5, did she make things more difficult for Julia like usual?

  23. “Neil Pringle was second only to Ron Coote as a lock forward. He played for Newtown and Balmain.

    Certainly bad news for the Pringle family. Dunno about these communes. I’m sure we’ve got a Waco lurking somewhere.

    But second only to Ron Coote? Do the names Raper, Price, Pearce ring any bells? Bit of licence in there amid the tragedy, old son…

  26. Dr John

    [Diogenes – when in Melbourne you only had one PB comment and in reference to the numbers of beggars on the street!
    Did you get back to Adelaide without being mugged?]

    Melbourne was very safe. The inhabitants struck me as a bit dour and joyless. Syd and Bris has more lively citizens and Adelaidians are more laid back.

    I still haven’t seen a good reason given for the difference in number of beggars in Melb and Adelaide. Perhaps our police move them on.

  27. BW, I realize this was probably mostly in jest and out of stirring, but:

    I challenge you to give me one *good* reason for the continued existence of Sydney.

    Given we have the level of population we have, and some level of modern lifestyle that we expect to be able to support, it’s very easy to show that the way to house these people in the most efficient way, with the least environmental impact, is through high density cities, rather than low density cities/towns.

    Manhattan, eg, is astonishingly efficient, per person, at housing a population with a Western lifestyle.

    In Australia, Sydney is the densest city with the highest public transport usage etc.

    Sure it has problems, but flippant dismissal is not valid…

    This isn’t to argue that we need that serious discussion about limiting our population both globally and in Australia, but that doesn’t alter with how to deal with the people we already have…

  28. TLBD

    [Names, addresses, next of kin and contact numbers are a good start.]

    About 100 different companies already have that data on me and transmit it between offices.

  29. Roy Orbison

    Not wanting to intrude or become part of the football stuff but Ray was magic to watch (and almost all of the team at the time)

  32. Dr John

    I did see a very stunning Delta Goodrem at the airport. I pointed her out to Mrs D who said “Yuck, look how skinny she is!”

  33. ”
    I suppose you guys have produced Fatty Vautin”

    A good enough reason for Bore Wore to turn his venom onto Brisbane. Not to mention it also being the home town of John Ribot de Bresac…

  34. BH @ 4781 – amazing how little is known about that Carnarvan solar power success, a result of an earlier Labor govt subsidy for individual households encouragement. I’m surprised at how it’s not much bruited around. I think it’s a really great story and something other communities should know about and be encouraged to undertake, with or without subsidies. But look at how little interest there is even here where they has been a very lively exchange on alternative energy options. Dee’s comment at 4609 about a great newly built energy efficient house hasn’t had another mention either. I’m sure we all know of other examples. Are success stories not as interesting for comment as talking about what ought to happen and isn’t?

    For anyone who missed the link about Australia’s one wholly solar power town it’s http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-13/carnarvon-residents-show-solar-power-can-pay/3949892

  35. Centre

    Milne mainly attacked Abbott. Do not worry though. The MSM will find some way to twist that into an attack on Labor.

  36. No Roy, I’m talking about – at the same playing time of their careers 😎

    Raper was before, Price was after and Pearce later still. Yes Price and Pearce were better than Pringle. I never saw Raper play.

  37. Dio – Not ‘taking the piss’ but the people asking for a cigarette in the city in Adelaide in about 1994 or there abouts remain as a memory of the place. Haven’t been back since – not because of that.

  41. Jackol

    You didn’t give any reason at all, let alone one *good* reason for the continued existence of Sydney. Sydney has no real purpose. No has no function. It represents no higher good. It exists like a mindless perpetual motion machine that does nothing other than keep going until something arrives to make it stop.

    All Sydney does is suck goodness out of its hinterland – water, nutrients, minerals, energy. It distributes dirty water, entrophied energy and minerals and major amounts of pollutants in return.

    Sydney is a perfect demonstration of why cities are going to be the end of this phase of human development. I acknowledge that this is not Sydney’s fault. It is just what cities do.

  44. Boerwar, ok so what you’re -really- arguing is that Western Civilisation as we know it has no purpose.

    Why didn’t you just say so?

    I won’t argue the point.

  45. shellbell

    [he HC has a nifty summary sheet]

    And I always thought the Registry staff said they were fully occupied spreading tarps on the roof.

    Times must have changed.

  46. In my opinion, Oohmann should have started with an open question, such as: “How do you see the Greens’ agenda now that Bob Brown has left?”

    It is entirely typical that, what pretends to be insightful probing, resorts to Ooh, aren’t you being served!.

  49. g

    I read the link to the drought in England and it didn’t really answer the interesting questions: like, ‘Had they had droughts like that before?’ (I think they did have) and like, ‘Is this what hapens in England and the northern hemisphere with la Ninas?’

    So, quite a frustrating article.

  50. “I thought you might say your real name was Truthie”

    Did that cretin get banned again?

    re Sydney, if you:
    1) Get rid of Irish themed pubs
    2) Burn down 2GB and exorcise the ruins
    3) Boot the Manly Eagles and replace them with the North Sydney Bears
    4) Re-route the Harbour Tunnel to Maroubra Beach
    5) Ban the 396 bus (won’t need it with the tunnel re-directed)
    6) Excise the Hills District to Queensland (win-win because they would both be happy. One lot Christians leaving a godless Gomorah, and a state getting a whole lot of fellow travellers to spread about the remaining ALP electorates)
    7) Ban New Year (and every other bullshit excuse) fireworks. The dogs and horses will appreciate it. Don’t care what the cats think.
    8) If you can’t close the Irish pubs, at least move them to Punchbowl and Lakemba. The resultant lightshow will more than make up for the erstwhile fireworks. Even if they are during Ramadan.
    9) Move Cronulla to where the Hills District was and cover it up with the spoil from moving the Harbour Tunnel.
    10) Burn down 2GB again. Just in case.

    If that wouldn’t make it the world’s most liveable city, then you just can’t make some people happy.

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