The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
[Brian Mc
Posted Thursday, April 5, 2012 at 3:25 pm | Permalink
Anyone wanting to destroy Fairwork Australia, whether it be Tony Abbot or the WA Liberals or our “truthful”contributor Geewizz,is out to do this country a grevious harm.
It is one thing to suggest reforms, which, in the course of time, may be necessary, but to suggest destroying the structure of Industrial Relations in this country is treasonable.]
So, charge John Howard.
It was the Howard govt who demonised the concept of unionism.
This didn’t just translate to industrial relations, but to the destruction of the birthplace of politicians in general, student unionism.
Not content with destroying Labor’s base, in the process he’s destroyed the ability of universities to turn out fine minds, educated minds, to guide this country.
We haven’t seen the stupidity of Howard’s legacy just yet, because the current political crop hail from the days of student unionism.
This is not to say a tertiary education is everything you need to be politically successful. But it is to say that Howard’s anti-unionism has set the seeds for a return to Dickensian times.
Is Abbott certifiable?
Outsider,
[Hi Geewhiz. I am glad William allowed you back on the site! You certainly bring a different perspective, albeit one that I rarely agree with]
He brings the perspective (if you can call it that) that you find across every mainstream media outlet.
He brings nothing new or original here, but the same old shit that washes over the country 24/7 courtesy of the one-party media.
What would be the benefit of that? If anyone here really wanted that perspective, all they have to do is simply open a newspaper, or turn on their TV or radio. Nothing could be easier than getting that “perspective” from practically anywhere.
Getting away from it … that’s the novelty.
Stupid bloody Abbott is running with advice from Brandis which is wRONg in so many aspects.
ABC just cut him off to stop him from making more of a dill of himself than he already has.
Gotta love their ABC!
Scorpio
They seriously cut away from Abbott?
They did on ABC 24.
Sorpio
Maybe they were worried about defamation if they remained. B
BW, Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc never apologise for using BIG words
(just cut him off to stop him from making more of a dill of himself than he already has.
Gotta love their ABC!)
Good they should do it more often
BH @ 4036
[I appreciate your posts because the arguments are so helpful to the rest of us who come up against the issues in our electorates]
Thanks for the kind words.
There’s mild irony in this; firstly because so many of my arguments have been developed by reading what others have to say on PB and secondly because one of my main uses of PB is to test arguments out – knowing that if I have made an error of fact or logic, chances are someone is going to point it out to me.
All very circular!
scorpio
That is peculiar
I was just starting to enjoy it too. Closed my eyes and there was Brandis, word for word and wRONg! 😉
[Maybe they were worried about defamation if they remained.]
Would they be liable merely for showing a press conference? I doubt it.
Actually I have noticed thebABC is delaying press conferences where they think FWA saga is going to arise.
[bemused
Posted Thursday, April 5, 2012 at 2:20 pm | Permalink
Tom Hawkins @ 3900
If Abbott becomes PM I could always pretend to be a New Zealander when abroad. That might work.
Better start practising on your vowels right now just in case. That Kiwi accent takes a bit of work.]
We were over in the Caribbean after September 11th, at that stage had to make sure we weren’t regarded as Americans as the local people weren’t, despite Sept 11, very fond of the Americans we were on a supply ship to the tall ships and called i n to about 15 islands, I saw the reason why Americans weren’t popular there by the behaviour of some of them, other Americans realized this and pretended to be Canadian. After the invasion against Saddam when Johnny man of steel followed George Bush, we pretended we were NZers when travelling for a while. Said sex not six etc
I doubt they’ll put the full clip on the Liberals web site.
[Good they should do it more often]
Preferably before the first syllable.
ltep,
[ Maybe they were worried about defamation if they remained.
Would they be liable merely for showing a press conference? I doubt it. ]
The ABC are no strangers to the occasional writ. They don’t have a legal department for nothing.
She has been so willing to talk until now
[SkyNewsAust via @AhronYoung: Kathy Jackson didn’t speak to waiting media outside. Made a b-line to the lift!
about 3 hours ago]
Ffs!
[SkyNewsAust via @KrissyZarich: On #pmagenda – @David_Speers joined by Senator George Brandis and @PGarrettMP + Panel: @penbo @samanthamaiden #auspol
2 minutes ago]
One thing I noticed on ABC radio news, is they are stating that Abbott is trying to link the FWA stuff to Thompson. A change in emphasis from the “FWA is investigating Thomson” stuff.
I wonder why, in fact the 4PM News had just aired an Thomson was not mentioned at all in the FWA story.
ru
Interesting
Abbott’s presser was the cry of screeching irrelevance.
Hearsay from Faris and Brown, mixed with a sensible ACTU decision. Meld in words like corruption and incompetence. Say Union Booga Booga and FWA Booga Booga.
Result is FA.
ru
I would love to know What hapened in meeting with Kathy Jackson
GG
Brandis is going to be on Sky agenda. No doubt he will continue in this vein
ru,
The current head of the HSU, Brown apparently said a lot of the incidents in the FWA report were about Thomson.
From this Abbott has deduced that Thomson is an international fugitive from justice protected only by a corrupt Gillard Government.
A bit of a stretch, I reckon.
Victoria: in Brandis’ case that should be “in this vain” …!
GG
For all we know Thomson was mentioned in report in a positive light! Now that would be hilarious!
MM
Touche
lol@Mm
I have been waiting for Atia to telegraph Abbott ‘s presser. Nothing yet
It was right from Loonyville Central. The PM has to do this, the PM has to that. She can’t take money from the HSU. She mustn’t use Thomson’s vote. FWA MUST come up with a brief of evidence. The DPP said the report was useless. And lots more.
Crazy stuff.
Abbott on A-Pac now. Just started.
http://www.a-pac.tv/
Oops Latika.
[Protection racket’ shielding MP: Tony Abbott]
What protection racket?
Just more Abbott lies; but, since Red Kezza retired, not one MSM journo prepared to shirtfront him about his compulsive lying, yet hypocritically slandering the Prime Minister, mainly for what was not a lie – she is NOT implementing a Carbon tax.
The HSU saga is akin to the On-smartcard hacking: most of what was done, though probably illegal if done today, was NOT illegal at the time.
Re NewsIntel: Phone-tapping was most definitely illegal, and had been throughout the Murdoch Ascendancy (only Spooks’ & court-authorised police phone-tapping was legal). Computer hacking, computer-based hacking & smart-card hacking was NOT illegal at the time. Reprehensible behaviour, sure! Illegal now, sure! But, where the actual act of smart-card hacking is concerned, almost certainly no laws broken, or multiple court cases would have succeeded.
Re HSU: similar situation. After 4 years of internal inquiries, FWA inquiries, a NSW police inquiry after Brandis referred the HSU files to them, an ongoing Victorian police inquiry, no evidence found of any crime being committed by Craig Thompson. NONE. No evidence of a cover-up to conceal a crime (some of which might very well have been illegal at the time). NONE. Moreover, Thomson has made restitution – more than can be said of Murdoch.
Civil action might be possible against Thomson – although if there were evidence of such, surely Kathy W would have slapped on writs years ago.
Civil law decisions do not, however, lead to forced retirement from Parliament – and that most certainly is NOT the political outcome Abbott and Brandis want.
The HSU, police forces, FWA, DPP – now Brandis wants the Federal Police as well – are wasting millions on Tony Abbott’s monomanic political ambition and LNP refusal to accept the umpire’s ruling on Election2010’s outcome.
[If I remember correctly the AFP did the correct thing by PM Howard and informed him that members of his “team” were about to be raided. Mr Howard naturally, to ensure procedural fairness, informed the Members of the intending raids.]
GG and Rua – it was sickening watching Laming on Sky earlier. I thought of what he had probably ‘got rid of’ or hidden before the AFP went in but to hear Laming it was all a case of him being a lily white angel but Craig Thomson is an evil monster.
Dear Tweeps, read and weep – AWB Oil-for-Wheat Scandal –
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AWB_Oil-for-Wheat_Scandal
vic,
Or, not at all!
That would writs moving.
GG
Abbott is funny – “Now this is just an outrage.”
No Tony, you are the outrage.
Thanks for the link to APAC but…
Hands pumping, Abbott pumps out his smears.
[since Red Kezza retired, not one MSM journo prepared to shirtfront him about his compulsive lying, yet hypocritically slandering the Prime Minister, mainly for what was not a lie – she is NOT implementing a Carbon tax.]
[Abbott is funny – “Now this is just an outrage.”
No Tony, you are the outrage.]
Instance upon instance of Right Wing Projection.
There must be dozens more if one were to take the trouble to document them all.
This character wrote the book on RWP, I think.
Unfortunately the HSU business is hurting the Govt in the polls, and it seems to have gone to the level where people who normally don’t notice politics start to mention it (judging by comments at work).
I think its actually getting to point where the LNP is overreaching and I suspect nothing will happen to Craig Thomson at all because there’s nothing serious to talk about. Until that is established however, we’ll have to ride out some bad polls.
Abbott can see the PM’ship right there in front of him. He can almost touch it, he can smell it, he can taste it but it is just a fingernail out of reach.
His desperation is palpable. Quite a pitiful sight but so enjoyable to watch for some of us. He keeps grasping for that swinging rope that just keeps on staying out of reach.
If only, he keeps telling himself, if only!
Leroy
Agree with your assessment
A short list of those Abbott thinks have conspired against him.
FWA
CDPP
Treasury
RBA
NBN Co
CSIRO
OECD
World Bank
IMF
APEC
COAG
G20
Channel 7
Mark Reilly
Bob Brown
The entire ALP membership living or dead.
I am sure I have missed a few. 🙂
Mr Abbott is now talking about the ‘guilty’ parties. In othere words, this megalomaniac thinks that he is now the judicial system in Australia.
He just shits all over the place, hoping that some of it will stick, I suppose.
Scorpio,
He keeps reaching, bending forward, stretching…
Eventually the laws of physics take over, and like Wile E Coyote, he falls off the edge…
[GeeWizz
Posted Thursday, April 5, 2012 at 2:30 pm | Permalink
Andrew Wilkie, the Greens, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott must force the PM to release details of the FWA investigation.
If they don’t they will have lost all credibility they have as indepedents ]
Maybe Lewis Carroll could’ve been thinking of Wizzer and Craig Thomson when he wrote this verse
[Last night when climbing up the stair,
I saw a man who wasn’t there.
I saw that man again today.
I wish that he would go away.]
Aint nothing there for you to gloat on Wizzer. Better get back to the boats … oh wait, I forgot. Even they’re slowing down now.
Boerwar
I have not listened to Abbott, but if Thomson Has no case to answer, has Abbott defamed?
“Craig Thomson is Julia Gillard’s member of parliament.” So Tony reckoned.
I wonder who wrote that line for him.
Probably wrote it himself. Blimey it sounded funny when he said it!