Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.

UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:

• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.

• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.

• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.

• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.

• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.

• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.

• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,167 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 84 of 84
1 83 84
  1. Just for the record. Morgan F2F 57.5-42.5. Katter polling 7.5% in Qld.

    [In early April L-NP support is up 2.5% to 57.5% compared to the ALP’s 42.5% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend, March 31/ April 1, 2012.

    Today’s face-to-face Morgan Poll shows the L-NP primary vote is 44.5% (down 0.5%) – ahead of the ALP 32% (down 4.5%). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 13% (up 0.5%) and Others/ Independents 10.5% (up 4.5%).

    Polling in Queensland indicates that the new Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) – which achieved a vote of 11.5% at the recent Queensland State Election – is polling 7.5% of the Federal vote in Queensland.]

  2. When william does the allocated pref,’ should not be t bad, and to others means parking this week thsts ok, another group of people ‘others must be ni dependants i take thats promising,
    They dont like the liberals ,
    After a hung parliment come the election idoubt there will be to many others voted for

  3. How many Press Gallery Journos are out there asking Coalition backbenchers about tactics. Disillussion and who they would vote for in a leadership spill

  4. Hello bludgers. Although I have officially quit the internet I am back on for a few days over Easter so I can download Wrestlemania and a few other things and I thought I would say hello.

    I listened to the Julia fat arse controversy with interest the other day. All our well bred, politically correct instincts tell us that we should not judge a person (particularly a woman) by their physical appearance, and comments on the subject are crude, boorish and unwelcome.

    Which is all true I guess, but then things are rarely as simple as that. I have noticed a tendency here on PB for the Labor bludgers to focus on the practical, factual side of Labor in power and in many ways to scorn the politics of the present situation. They seem to think that you can somehow separate the “facts” (BISONs etc) from the politics (spin, slogans, tactics, criticisms of style, presentation, communication and physical appearance) and that to emphasise one is to be virtuous and to emphasise the other is to be low brow and cretinous (i.e Tony Abbottesque).

    But I’m not sure. Politics IS about appearances, and there is something slightly strange about the Labor Bludgers retreat from actual politics into this sort of technocratic perspective.

    Where Julia Gillard fails is in leadership – in the projection of her personality and values into the political debate. People who act like this doesn’t matter so long as she gets X number of bills through the parliament really don’t understand politics at all.

    The differences between modern Labor and the coalition are so slight that investing so much emotion in the ALP‘s agenda seems like such a silly thing to do. If Julia Gillard had the charisma and skills to create a cult of personality then at least the slavish devotion would be more understandable. As it is I really wonder why people bother.

    I used to be horrified by Tony Abbott but as time goes on I am finding myself admiring his political talents, and a small (but growing) part of me wants to see him triumph over Julia Gillard. I will revel in her disgrace, because with the policy differences between Labor and the coalition so fundamentally slight, the human drama is all that’s interesting to me in politics right now. Bring it on I say.

  5. Bushfire Bill,

    [We’ve seen all this before. An Opposition Leader smelling the scent of a Prime Ministerial scandal.

    One of Labor’s best hopes is that Abbott does what Abbott does: jumps the shark.

    On previous form, it has to happen at some time.

    He seems to be coming close right ATM. ]

    Blimey, I’d love to know what Turnbull is thinking, sitting back & watching this unfold.

    I bet he’s thinking, “mmmm, I seem to remember I’ve been in a similar position at one time.”

  6. Leisure Suit Larry wrote and a small (but growing) part of me wants to see him (Abbott) triumph over Julia Gillard.

    Larry, I am sure it is a very small part of you, and it will grow if you touch it again. I am also sure it is the part that does your thinking for you. May you continue to revel in your own “human drama’ while I avert my eyes to a more ‘technocratic perspective’.

  7. Leisure Suit Larry wrote and a small (but growing) part of me wants to see him (Abbott) triumph over Julia Gillard.

    Larry, I am sure it is a very small part of you, and it will grow if you touch it again. I am also sure it is the part that does your thinking for you. May you continue to revel in your own “human drama’ while I avert my eyes to a more ‘technocratic perspective’.

  8. [ The Finnigans
    Posted Thursday, April 5, 2012 at 2:44 pm | Permalink
    I still dont get it why the ACTU suspends HSU and on what basis?]

    Cause they’re no longer prepared to put-up with the Hatfield vs Mc Coy nonsense going-down there.

  9. [No Tony the Police do not try to find evidence of a crime off there own bat. They need a complaint, a reason, a suspicion to believe, then they can go before a magistrate and get a warrant sworn. Did you get punched in the head during law classes?]

    Nah ru, he’s a boxer. He got punched in the ring.

  10. Smithe
    Canada is getting closer to the USA alright.

    They changed their gun control laws and not only got rid of the requirement to register your long guns, they have destroyed all the data held about those guns gathered over the last 20 years. That was very useful to track what guns went where and which ones ended up used for crimes. Destroying data like that was just disgusting.

    With gun control you have never won, one sign of weakness, one sliver of opportunity with a conservative government and the gun-nutters are in like Flynn.

    They have started in NSW with the watering down of the laws there, and I reckon Qld could be next, although Candupe doesn’t rely on them for any votes so maybe QLd is relatively safe for a few years more.

Comments Page 84 of 84
1 83 84

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *