Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.

UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:

• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.

• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.

• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.

• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.

• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.

• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.

• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,167 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  2. Leroy.

    Abbott is becoming the man who cried wolf. He can keep going over the top with accusations etc as much as he likes. People will see through it.

    On a good note, the Article from Last weekends Australian on how strong Gillard is was the talk of Qld ABC radio for 2 hours this arvo. Surprising how many people are starting to admire her determination, they may not agree on policies but respect is building.

  3. [Eventually the laws of physics take over, and like Wile E Coyote, he falls off the edge…]
    Cuppa
    You might remember that Wile E Coyote always came to grief immediately after he became over confident.

  4. victoria

    I have no idea. Mr Abbott did not name the guilty parites. Mind you, whatever happens, this does not do Ms Gillard any good. At all.

  7. victoria,

    [ I have not listened to Abbott, but if Thomson Has no case to answer, has Abbott defamed? ]

    FWA would be closely looking at Farris in that regard I would expect. I think though it is difficult for a government Agency or Department to sue a member of Parliament who is defaming them.

    An interesting question. I would say IMO that Abbott was definitely defaming FWA but I think he realises that they can’t touch him.

  8. ruawake – yes he has cried wolf, enabled by Kathy Jackson amongst others. I don’t see any sign yet the general public are seeing through him on this issue. It will take something like legal action, a judgement or a release that clears (or mostly clears) Thomson, or a forced retraction of accusations, to make people see that.

    The ABC has an article up
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-05/actu-suspends-health-services-union/3935476

    [ACTU suspends Health Services Union
    Updated April 05, 2012 16:22:03

    The Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) has voted overwhelmingly to suspend the beleaguered Health Services Union (HSU) from its ranks.]
    Article & video

  9. [Unfortunately even the Morgan F2f has dropped 4.5 points for Labor this week]

    Yawn. The ALP vote has gone to others, the Libs have fallen as well.

  11. Boerwar
    Yes, it doesn’t matter whether Thomson is guilty or innocent or whether charges will or can ever be laid against anyone named in the report.
    This is all about adding layer upon layer of mud to mould perceptions.

  14. I read yesterday that this would be the first time the ACTU has suspended a union.

    [Vote to kick HSU out of ACTU was 1797 in favor and 103 opposed to suspension.]

    The HSU is clearly not feeling the love. Williamson and Jackson should do the right thing by their members and union and walk so it can reboot.

  15. Scorps
    [An interesting question. I would say IMO that Abbott was definitely defaming FWA but I think he realises that they can’t touch him.]
    I thought the pollies were at risk of defamation just like every other citizen.
    Except if they make those statements or accusations from inside parliament.

  16. I have SKY Agenda on upstairs, and can hear it down here at my computer.

    Oh, if I had the wings of a turtledove….so I could turn off the nonsense.

    Summary: Craig Thomson must be guilty of something. So there must be something wrong with the FWA.

  17. Someone the other day said this was starting to look like the Godwin Grech Affair. I’m starting to agree.

    Abbott is drawing a very long bow, associating the FWA investigation with Gillard, to the point of suggesting collusion.

    Speers has just played a compi;le tape of Gillard saying “FWA is independent” as if that’s some kind of proof they are corrupt.

    It’s simply the truth.

    They are asking the PM to interfere in the determinations of an independent body, making out this is some kind of normal thing to do, as in “Just pick up the phone”.

    Now Abbott is saying that Thomson is the HSU rep in the government. And that since the HSU has been idsaffiliated the government should cut Thomson loose.

    This is seriously crazy stuff. Very dangerous. Does Abbott know what he is saying?

  18. BK,

    [You might remember that Wile E Coyote always came to grief immediately after he became over confident.]

    Even the Teflon Man’s “luck” can’t hold out forever. I think.

  19. Now whoever the idiot is is saying that if the ACTU won’t accept HSU then Gillard should reject Thomson.

    But, he says, she can’t, because it would bring down the government.

    One of those statements brands you as a twit. Making two of them sequentially…

  20. GD

    [Maybe Lewis Carroll could’ve been thinking of Wizzer and Craig Thomson when he wrote this verse

    Last night when climbing up the stair,
    I saw a man who wasn’t there.
    I saw that man again today.
    I wish that he would go away.]

    Actually it was William Mearns who wrote Antigonish.

  21. [I wouldn’t think it would be possible to defame a statutory agency.]

    Some kind of “Contempt of Court” charge? I’m clutching at straws here, of course.

    Abbott is systematically trying to tear down every edifice of government that he thinks is getting in his way.

    I’m hoping that Gillard is waiting for Abbott to go too far out on a limb, from which she can chainsaw him off to the flat earth below.

  22. [Would they be liable merely for showing a press conference? I doubt it.]

    ltep, the possibility of legal actions, even if the report was released/ referred has been raised from the time its release was announced. Only in Parliament are politicians shielded from libel actions.

    Reputedly thanks to Kathy W, her relationships, her claims, her “breakdown”, the successful vote of no confidence etc, HSU, esp Victorian Branch, is said to be a shambles.

    FWA is apparently concerned about legal action if its report is published. The DPP said it was examining the report for potential legal problems before it decided on the next step.

    Abbott and Brandis had, by last night, just about talked themselves into being litigation fodder., esp if Thomson, HSU etc get nasty.

    After that, Media lawyers have v probably issued warnings.

  23. [This is seriously crazy stuff. Very dangerous. Does Abbott know what he is saying?]

    Abbott has spent many hours crafting his motion of no confidence in the Govt, it all depended on Thomson being referred to the DPP. So when it turns to merde he cannot fathom that his latest Baldrick plan to seize Govt has failed.

  25. [I wouldn’t think it would be possible to defame a statutory agency.]

    I doubt you could either. First of all, you have to prove financial damages (as in lost hamburger sales for McDonalds) and I don’t think FWA would lose money because it was libelled.

  27. BB

    I think that is what is happening. The Pm has been all smiles nd laughing of late. Her demeanor at last nights forum was the same as that when she did her first one iwhich was in Queensland. Mr Thomson is miling and talking to the media. The Row of Ministers last night appeared relaxed and comfortable to me.
    Contrast that with the Presser Abbott just did. I think tht tells us how it is going.

  28. Maybe it’s Easter that Abbott feels he needs to do some crucifixion and then resurrection of his key to the Lodge

  29. Blimey, Abbott’s riding the shark hard and has pulled out the whip! 😉

    [ Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says state police should be prepared to seek warrants to search Fair Work Australia to determine if crimes have been committed by the HSU.

    Mr Abbott says Fair Work must cooperate with the DPP and also be prepared to work with the Victorian and New South Wales police.

    “If Fair Work Australia is unwilling or incapable of doing this, the state police would be justified in seeking the evidence that Fair Work Australia clearly has and in using the evidence that Fair Work Australia clearly has to prepare their own briefs of evidence,” he said. ]

    And if that doesn’t work, then it is up to the PM and Government to do the hard yards for Tone and somehow scrape up enough evidence to see Thommo charged, convicted and tossed out of the Parliament so that Tone can take his rightful place in that big chair at the right of the Speaker.

    [ Mr Abbott says the Government must act to identify the people accused of wrong doing within the HSU. ]

    I reckon Tone wouldn’t care even if Gillard had to manufacture evidence. As long as the rightful occupant of that chair gets to sit in it on occasions other than the wasted 50 MPI’s etc then that is all that matters! 😉

    This is quickly turning into some sort of sick joke IMO!

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-05/actu-suspends-health-services-union/3935476

  30. [Now Abbott is saying that Thomson is the HSU rep in the government. And that since the HSU has been disaffiliated the government should cut Thomson loose.]

    This man can’t possibly believe his own rubbish. If he’s ‘sincere’, we’re in real trouble.
    And they laughed at Latham 😮

  31. This does not look good for Abbott

    In fact this could make him resign if any of his accusations of corruption is taken to the police by the hsu, for an criminal investigation

  34. [ Now Abbott is saying that Thomson is the HSU rep in the government. And that since the HSU has been disaffiliated the government should cut Thomson loose.

    This man can’t possibly believe his own rubbish. If he’s ‘sincere’, we’re in real trouble.
    And they laughed at Latham 😮     ]

    I have to agree with my own statement, Lizzie, and I thank you for correcting the spelling of “idsaffiliation”.

  36. says they need the space for committee rooms. ALP booted up a few flights and possibly will be moved out of the building.

    this is seriously astonishing stuff.

  38. The Finnigans,

    [ Maybe it’s Easter that Abbott feels he needs to do some crucifixion and then resurrection of his key to the Lodge ]

    I bet when he cracks that big Easter egg open on Sunday morning he will be hoping the key to the Lodge falls out straight into his eager lap! 😉

    Midnight mass tonight and he And George will be lining up for Communion twice and twirling those Rosary beads around so much the crucifies will be in danger of falling off.

    I can smell it, I can taste it he wails! Give it to me! Give it to me now! The waiting. I can’t stand the waiting!

  40. We’ve seen all this before. An Opposition Leader smelling the scent of a Prime Ministerial scandal.

    One of Labor’s best hopes is that Abbott does what Abbott does: jumps the shark.

    On previous form, it has to happen at some time.

    He seems to be coming close right ATM.

  41. If Thomson has a good case to go after Abbott and Brandis surely there must be a wealthy ex Labor barrister somewhere who could take it on pro bono just for the satisfaction obtained in seeing the pair of them suffer a little…make that a lot

  44. Internationally, the insurance industry was the first industry to become seriously concerned about global warming. Unfortunately, the insurance industry in general has chosen to stick it to the punters rather than lead the international charge on support for decarbonising economies.

    I see that QBE is considering not offering insurance in some areas…

    I thought I saw the it was increasing its premiums by 7%.

    This is a COL issue. It is clear that AGW is already having COL impacts. It is a pity that this aspect of the COL pressures is absent from both the political debate, the policy debate and the MSM. It is easy to see why AGW is already happening and will get much worse before it gets better. The best we can hope for in the medium term is that none of the tipping points are reached.

  45. If the hsu was smart it could do some damage to abbott now

    by asking abbott to provide evidence to the police of corruption if not, put the pressure on the police to charge abbott with

    1- withholding evidence

    2- Public nusiance

  47. [Labor has been prevented from using the space long allocated to Queensland opposition parties, with new Leader of the House Ray Stevens saying the offices will be converted into committee meeting rooms.

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/opposition-offices-closed-to-labor-20120405-1wekh.html#ixzz1r9AY8mbY%5D

    I thought that Can-do might (possibly) be able to resist the ol’ Qld Nationals disease but seems he might end up being worse than Johs bunch. They were just bent and corrupt, it’s looking that Can-do is almost Hitlerish in his desire to ensure no viable alternative exists up here.

    I would be very surprised if we starting hearing “Now don’t you worry about that” coming form Campbell as the paper bag passed from business man to pollie.

  48. [Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says state police should be prepared to seek warrants to search Fair Work Australia to determine if crimes have been committed by the HSU.]

    No Tony the Police do not try to find evidence of a crime off there own bat. They need a complaint, a reason, a suspicion to believe, then they can go before a magistrate and get a warrant sworn. Did you get punched in the head during law classes?

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