Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.

UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:

• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.

• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.

• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.

• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.

• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.

• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.

• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,167 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. This is too much fear and loathing in Las Vegas for me.

    I’m outa here before the Reptiles take the place over for the night.

  2. William,

    You have some knowledge of Spanish? The equivalent, in Spanish, of “actually”, is “currently”.

    I can see you as a fine prolocutor on matters of definition in treatises.

  3. Good thing there’s no Federal election on this Saturday.

    Tony Abbott gets to survive as LOTO for another week at least! 😉

  4. The polls appear to be backing each other up. The clear message to Labor is that something needs to change. They can’t keep trying on the “we just aren’t selling the message” line because it’s quite clear that Australia hears the message and doesn’t like it.

  5. As I posted on the previous thread, thank God I’ve ended my Age subscription. I don’t have to read about this Neilsen shit anymore. or Grattan or Carney, or any of it.

    When a dork like Hockey is seen as a better prospect for treasurer than the man who got us almost unscathed through the GFC and Tony Abbott is seen as a better PM than Julia Gillard (or anyone for that matter) there is something very politically wrong in this country.

  6. [ 2. They have realised that Rudd is NOT coming back

    Nothing to do with it.]

    bwahahaha. i am curious if some Labor power brokers will be made to eat some sh*t sandwiches prior t the next election. Now that would be funny.

    I think it is pretty obvious 57/43 where it is at. And as I said at the time, the second rolling of Rudd by factional politics wouldn’t be reflected in the polls for a few weeks. And now it is. Now Labor has no positive lights to shine.

    Just Gillard and Swan hell bent on sending the economy into recession in order to claim a ‘surplus’ just for the sake of it, and the hope of political points.

    So we had Rudd saving Australia for recession with a stimulus package praised overseas, only to see Gillard/Swan now planning to do the exact opposite. One of these people was thinking of Australians, the others thinking of personal political points.

    OK, normal Sao biscuit service can be resumed.

  7. No 7

    Darn it’s time to recognise that the problem is Gillard and her band of hapless of suckholes (as Latham would have it), not democracy itself.

  8. [Gillard Labor: worst since federation.]

    Here we go, the rightards descend on the blog to gloat at the latest media-inspired poll results, and what do we get? Slogans. Talk about shallow.

  9. No 10

    Bob Carr has also turned out as expected: palaverous and out of his depth. Rudd at least had some chops in this area.

  10. [thank God I’ve ended my Age subscription. I don’t have to read about this Neilsen shit anymore]

    Toooo funny. Sand, head. Baghdad Darn.

    Now really must go, before they start splashing it about again.

  11. No 15

    Cuppa, it sure is more interesting to troll you than read your inane treatises on why Rupert Murdoch is the problem, not the elected government of Australia.

  12. [Gillard Labor: worst since federation.]

    Damn straight. Haven’t seen a Prime Minister who is worse at playing table tennis. Truly shameful.

  13. [Darn,

    You, for your sanity, have to ref BK’s morning refs.]

    Yes, I’ve been doing that ducky – as well as scrolling past the nonsense of TP and GP, who only ever crawl out from under their rocks when the polls take a dip for Labor.

  14. No 21

    Darn, its not like this is a recent trough in the numbers. Gillard has had terminal numbers for more than 12 months.

    Also, I don’t blame the electorate. I don’t blame democracy. I don’t blame the media. I blame the people running the show.

  15. Darn @ 7

    As I posted on the previous thread, thank God I’ve ended my Age subscription. I don’t have to read about this Neilsen shit anymore. or Grattan or Carney, or any of it.

    Well that’ll fix everything won’t it?

  16. You people are too witless to even come up with an original thought, needing (in order to say something) to recite a handful of learned inane Lieberal slogans. The ultimate in shallow. This is typical across the party, from its media ‘performers’ – they all chant slogans – right the way to the top, the jackass Abbott. When a TV show (a comedy show, note) challenged Abbott on one of those slogans, this was the result…

    All spin, no substance.

  17. GP, I don’t have any trouble with you being here. It’s those so called Labor supporters who get great delight in these polls that I have no time for.

  18. Gary @ 28

    I wonder what percentage of the poll was taken in queensland. ATM those voters would be toxic, to coin a phrase.

    Any pollster that wants to retain his reputation strives for a representative sample. The sample is most unlikely to be weighted toward Qld or any other state.

  19. Generic Person,

    [ Gillard Labor: worst since federation. ]

    You’ve really hurt an old man’s feelings now GP.

    Poor old Gough would be quite upset to think you would take the title off him.

  20. [Any pollster that wants to retain his reputation strives for a representative sample. The sample is most unlikely to be weighted toward Qld or any other state.]
    I wasn’t even suggesting that. Whatever the percentage you can bet Labor is not the flavour of the month up there atm. I would expect that sample to be particularly toxic.

  21. [“I wonder what percentage of the poll was taken in queensland. ATM those voters would be toxic, to coin a phrase.”]

    It’s the trend gary.

    Check out newspoll. Check out Morgan F2F(minus Labor Bias).

    There is no “big fall”, just a confirmation of what the others were telling us. My interpretation of the change in Labors fortunes is that after the Labor showing in QLD our fellow countrymen are taking solidarity with QLD’ers and giving Labor the big flick.

  22. No 30

    Cuppa you’re fighting a losing battle. Gillard’s performance this morning was one of the worst I remember seeing. Condescending, patronising, supercilious and platitudinous all in one. When will you actually acknowledge there’s a problem? People like you are what’s wrong with Labor more broadly – head in the sand types that think it’s the fault of the media and voters. No one is accountable.

  23. No, Zoidlord. Change “Labor” to “Liberal” and “Gillard” to “Howard” and GP’s comments are indistinguishable from dozens you might have read here on any Newspoll night in 2007 – probably including quite a few of your own if you were around then.

  24. I feel bad.

    I slapped-down daretoread a bit hard at the end of the other thread.

    Apologies for that.

    In my own defence, let me say first, never call a Labor Leftie a right winger (it’s not only poor form but people have lost teeth for less). Bovver Boy I can live with. No shame in that. The Left has produced some beauties and Labor needs them.

    Finally, let me just say that the drugs were too various and after the late Nielsen and arrival of the Buzzards here, I needed to vent.

    Again, sorry.

    I should clobber them instead.

  25. [Cuppa you’re fighting a losing battle. Gillard’s performance this morning was one of the worst I remember seeing.]
    Total BS. I watched it tonight. She did a very good job.

  26. I have to laugh at the person above calling conservatives posting here “primeval” – I consider myself a fairly middle of the road conservative, however reading these forums for the past couple of years before finally deciding to contribute — I always considered the overall opinions voiced here to be products of a sort of lost world where Labor somehow isn’t on the nose in the same way it is in the rest of Australia.

  27. Labor needs a circuit breaker and I reckon that means getting rid of Gillard because the punters have stopped listening.

    We have heard that Labor can’t swap leaders otherwise they will catch NSW Disease, but I think history has now taught us that if you stick with a dudd you end up with something called QLD Disease which is a much more fatal ailment requiring the party to be put down.

  28. @William/40

    You’re analogy is wrong – Labor is currently Goverment as a Minority government with Gillard being Labor Leader.

    So once again please.

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