Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.

UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:

• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.

• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.

• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.

• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.

• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.

• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.

• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,167 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. Perhaps the propensity of the right wing knuckle-draggers to chant slogans shouldn’t be surprising. It is a perfect fit with the brainwashed mentality they seek to inculcate in the broader community via the propaganda influence of the most one-sided media in the free world. Millions of brainwashed sheep mindlessly chanting party slogans, like something from 1984 – that’s their ‘vision’ for Australians.

  2. I slapped-down daretoread a bit hard at the end of the other thread.

    Are tears welling up in her eyes?


    She is no petal, just a would-be-so. Tell her what you think.

  3. No 45

    Bligh’s problem was that she irrefutably misled voters on the issue of privatisation. I couldn’t care less that she privatise all of QLD, but for Heaven’s sake, have the courage to let the electorate know BEFORE you do so.

    Gillard’s issues are largely similar. She lied about her ascension to the leadership and she lied about the carbon tax. Now she wants to campaign on trust? I mean, is Sussex Street still situated on planet earth?

  4. @GP/51

    1. And Now watch Campell do the same.

    I give him 2 years.

    2. She didn’t lie on carbon tax, and she isn’t exactly leading a government – now is she?

  5. GP the fuel levy increase was a bigger issue for Bligh… literally weeks after the last election… yet not a word about it before hand

  6. GP post 9

    I have to disagree with your claim that Gillard is the worst PM, for a start the two Billy’s and Stanley unless you would like to mount an argument as to how Gillard is worst than those three?

  7. This is the exact quote I remember she said “There will be no carbon tax under the government I lead”

    A Minority government no one can lead.

  8. Well, were were we?

    A bad poll.

    Great. A dozen more like it and we’re still, what, 7 or 8 months out from November 2013? And in the meantime the carbon Price Scheme is up; And the NBN is rolling out; the MRRT is operating; And the pension increases, tax cuts and super rises all get implemented.

    It must be absolutely busting your chops. So close…so close….but no fuackking cigar.

    Hope you Tories can keep the fires of rage stoked for another 18 months. You’re going to have to if you want to win.

    Surely the poor old stokers down in the boiler room are getting a bit exhausted by now. Shanas is having a little rest, apparently. His arms have given-out. Or is it his brain?

    And with the amount of shovelling Annabel Crabbe is doing for you, she’s gonna end-up with biceps ike Arnie if she doesn’t watch out. Then she really will need a nanny to pick-up the kid. What’s he bet she lets-up a bit too?

  9. Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead

    Err .. Is he fatter or has he bought a more comfortable leash?

  10. No 53

    If Newman is stupid enough to go down the Bligh path, he deserves to be punished. But I’m not going to sit here and whinge about privatisation – I support such policies.

  11. [It’s the government’s job to put out its message.]

    That’s a very good point GP. Since its part of their job, and they are supposed to use taxpayers funds to do their job, i look forward to an extensive taxpayer funded advertising campaign to get their message out.

    Hey, they can subtitle it, Approved by GP!

  12. No 57

    No-one cares about technical arguments. She is the PM, she has to take responsibility. The Greens will be wiped out much the same for their idiocy.

  13. @GP/60

    I don’t support such policies – selling infrastructure reduces our abilities to invest and control them – give the Telecommunication sector atm with the NBN recent reports now suggest that Malcom boy wants to buy the copper back – even though we built it.

  14. [because the punters have stopped listening]

    Don’t you love how wingnuts postulate their deep insights? What the “punters” (dumb term) are listening to is the mainstream media. What’s said on there, its tone and content, subliminally and fundamentally shape the political perceptions of the great majority of people.

    Saying “the punters have stopped listening” is just another slogan. It’s as devoid of meaning and logic as the other slogans these unthinkers come out with…

  15. The Liberals will grow to support the NBN for it is the best thing this government has done and deserves to continue

  16. @GP/62

    That’s why you need to be banned – to govern in Australia in you’re own right you need to have a MAJORITY.

  17. No 64

    I don’t think an incompetent government bureaucracy should be running the telecommunications infrastructure of the country.

  18. Zoidlord the voting public don’t care about who has control, many just don’t like the government

    So, “the voting public” does not like local, State or Commonwealth “control” or anyone else? Care to elaborate?

  19. Ducky I was referring to Zoidlord comment about the PM not having control of parliament which we here understands has created issues but the voting public don’t care for they saw the PM make comments before an election and now rightly or wrongly she is tarred with the brush

  20. Smithe

    Just what in the name of dog can a SL member use to justify supporting the most RW labor leader in decades. Give me a break. You are a “running dog” of the RW. even if you do not know it.

    Swannie and Gillard about to introduce a budget so right wing that the Liberals will probably take them on from the left.

    An AS policy that is more RW than Howard’

    Shame on you. Call yourself SL. Just what exactly are the Left wing principles you stand for

    Never seen you voice one.

    Belonging to a LW union does not make you (or them) left wing.

  21. [If Newman is stupid enough to go down the Bligh path,..]

    He’s not going to walk down that path mate, He’s already taken off down it in a dead sprint. He’ll privatise everything he can get his little mits on and farm out as much work as he can to his mates and cronies. He’s already doing so.

    He might have slagged-off Joh during the campaign, but that was mere product differentiation.

    Somewhere deep inside, he’s Joh all over.

    He doesn’t believe in inquiries. He doesn’t believe in processes. He’s a doer, not a thinker. And he thinks he can do anything he likes.

    Just like Joh.

    He’ll come a cropper. And sooner than you think. People like that are disasters just waiting to happen.

    At least in Her Maj’s Army all he had to do was follow orders. Now, he’s the Generalissimo and must give them. Different skill set. He was a disaster as mayor, apparently.

    Now he’s got an entire state for a sandbox.

  22. Well Newman could not have been that bad as major for Brisbane seemed to swing hard to him, I couldn’t image Melbourne swinging to Doyle like that

  23. mexicanbeemer,

    Thou talkest crap.

    The “bureaucracy” is told what to do by its Permanent Head ( joke, Joyce). That head is appointed by Teh Government (vide Queensland now, vie Howard).

    Care to chance on how many “Permanent Heads” have been appointed by the current Prime Minister?

  24. [The Liberals will grow to support the NBN for it is the best thing this government has done and deserves to continue]

    If they cared about the country, of course they would support the NBN.

    Just as they’d support the resources tax, so the community gets a take on its natural mineral wealth before it’s all gone forever.

    Just as they’d support the carbon price, the most efficient and cost-effective way to not only reduce pollution but to set the Australian economy up for relevance in the global shift to low-emission production.

    Just as they would have supported the Home Insulation Program, the BER, and the two economic stimulus packages – lauded by experts around the world as state-of-the-art measures against the slowdown of the GFC.

    But nope. As Julia Gillard says, they always put their political interest ahead of the national interest.

  25. I don’t think permanent heads exist these days.

    I know this Government appointed a new head of Treasury after Ken Henry moved on

  26. I don’t think permanent heads exist these days.

    Get back to me on that one, if you wish to sustain your argument.

  27. [ daretotread
    Posted Monday, April 2, 2012 at 12:52 am | Permalink

    Just what in the name of dog can a SL member use to justify supporting the most RW labor leader in decades. Give me a break. You are a “running dog” of the RW. even if you do not know it.]

    Youhave your apology. Do not push it.

    I do not feel the need to justify myself to yoiu or anyone else.

    The fact is I like Gillard. Swan too. And I liked Keating…..yes, Keating. And Lang and Uren and all the others I have referred to tonight.

    I’m not a single issue nit-wit. I generally leave that to the Greens. I try at least to look at the bigger picture. Why don’t you?

    Asylum seekers, while a tragedy, are a 5th or 6th order issue, in case you hadn’t noticed. There are soemwhat bigger problems for labor and this country to face at the moment.

    Like beating the goddamned Tories so they don;t turn the place into a post-industrial wasteland.

  28. Ducky What are you on about for all I commented on was Zoidlord saying that the PM changed her position due to the make up of the parliament that no one could lead for it is a minority

  29. @GeeWizz/80

    No it won’t be like medicare.

    There has been alot of preparation on the NBN if you actually bothered to follow up.

    These include NBN Committee, Senate Hearing’s, ACCC and Telstra has requirements that NBN must meet.

  30. smithe,

    If I may quote Mrs Bouquet: “Leave it, leave it!”

    They baulk at appreciation of (less, what it means) your post.

  31. zoidlord,

    NBN is running 95% behind schedule. They are also going to now be running over budget because of that. There is no accountability in the NBN… it is run like a lemonade stand not a multi-billion dollar taxpayer funded company.

    There is also substantial savings to be made to the taxpayer by reducing fibre connections from 93% to 90% and scrapping wireless services where people can already recieve it(it’s called Telstra 4G, covering 98% of the population).

    The Liberals will keep the NBN but they will fix up the issues that Labor have ignored.

  32. Well Ducky yes people are employed on a permanent bases but I am referring more to the or Humphrey version of appointment for life.

  33. DDT,

    [Swannie and Gillard about to introduce a budget so right wing that the Liberals will probably take them on from the left.]

    Before you cast into question Swannie’s credentials as a True Believer Labor man you should read this article.

    As a true Labor man, he doesn’t go around putting shit on his party, it’s leadership, its policies. I guess he leaves that sort of thing to concern trolls on discussion blogs, huh?

    And you should know why leadership are so single-minded about ‘delivering a budget surplus’. Because if they don’t they would never hear the end of it.

    Labor ARE better at the economy than the Liberals. Where their image suffers is through a decade+ propaganda campaign from the media-Liberals telling voters the reverse is actually the case.

    They don’t want to make the situation worse by failing to ‘deliver a budget surplus’ as they’ve promised.

  34. @GeeWizz/92

    Only due to Telstra SAU and ACCC.

    Which is now full steam ahead.

    Which magical issues that Labor have ignored? I noticed you haven’t said anything in detail on that? Perhaps we need a Productivity Commission on that?

  35. Smithe

    If you really wanted to beat the tories you would have been a Rudd supporter. The Gillard faction are only interested in keeping UNION control (Left and right) of the ALP. Nothing to do with policy – just a power grab.

    When the left play these sleazy games they ALWAYS get done over. The right are better at the game.

    Uren was left in case you did not know and Lang was probably the Katter of his generation – sort of maverick right.

  36. @GeeWizz/92

    Are you also suggesting that both Abbott and Malcom are lying to the public when they were going to destroy the NBN? and Malcom saying buying the Copper back ?

  37. Cuppa


    I understand WHY they may wish to bring in a surplus, but if it pushes the economy into a recession (which it well may) it will be a right wing policy which will have disastrous effects on Labor’s electoral status as will as disastrous affects for “working families”
    PS I want hep for non working and dysfunctional families too.

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