The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
There are arguments that base on stated premises and there are that do not.
If you want to postulate you can do so as opinion or as evidence.
PB will tear you apart on waffle.
Labor has usually kept Permanent Departmental heads and the top level PS intact on achieving Government. They know the value or an orderly transition of power.
Hell, they even kept Shergold for a while, I think ,after Howie got booted. And he was pretty partisan.
It’s the Libs who usually go-in, axe in hand in the first day or two and do the Texas Chainsaw thing.
It makes them feel good about themselves or something.
In some ways, after watching the regular canings the Tories receive in Senate Estimates, one can understand an urge for a little pay-back. It can’t be easy to sit there and have your idiotic assumptions and stupid qustions hit for sixers over and over again by well-briefed Public Servants.
Still, rather than lift their game a bit so that they can ask a competent question or two, the Tories would rather fill-in their little BLack Books with Lists of Those To Be Liquidated, come the Grand Tory Revolution and they regain the Treasury Benches.
They’re a pathetic lot, really.
You can see why their own mothers generally hate them.
[If you really wanted to beat the tories you would have been a Rudd supporter.]
Oh Dog! Can we please not do the whole Ruddstoratation thing again??
Yup, the polling sucks at the moment.
No, there is no election this weekend.
[The Gillard faction are only interested in keeping UNION control (Left and right) of the ALP. Nothing to do with policy – just a power grab.]
Wot, seriously, nothing to do with policy? Ummm…dont know if you’ve noticed that she actually has demonstrated a substantially better record of getting stuff done than her predecessor DtT.
Cuppa
Swannie showed he was NOT a true Labor man by trashing one of his own team. Despicable behavior. Probably will cost him his seat. I am CERTAIN that it added to the Qld debacle. Hope he is proud of himself
As I said my son who 6 months ago was going to join the ALP now says that he will be voting Liberal federally for many years. Well done Swannie (and the rest).
[If you really wanted to beat the tories you would have been a Rudd supporter..]
I was once. Like every other Labor person.
I found out the hard way just what sort of a person he is. Just like the rest of us did.
Except you, apparently.
@D2R/102
I don’t see how voting Liberal is a good thing? Last election I voted Greens with Labor prefs – the last thing I would do was vote Liberal.
Imacca
Rudd was in 2.5 years. Year one was planning and building (YES THAT IS GOOD POLICY)
Year 2 was derailed by a little matter of the GFC
You know a few BIG issues
Year three was the delivery year but he got cut down in the process
How come Swannie TOLD Rudd he had WA on side over the Mining Tax Mark One. Was it incompetence or deliberately undermining Rudd. Rudd turned up at the meeting with states believing (cos Swannie told him so) that Barnett was on board. Got a hellva shock.
I am guessing that Rudd took the blow torch to Swannie, who in a fit of peak said you were a meany to me so I am going to do you in. Yup. Great guy.
zoidy,
You know how your preferences will flow.
Your first preferences’ money go to that Joice.
Zoid
I was surprised myself at his vehemence. Him and the rest of his generation I guess. This election in QLD THE YOUNG voted LNP
Smithe Just cos people abuse a person does not mean it is true. People whom I respect have stuck with Rudd. Especially the brighter ones on the left. The dill pickles (and some union hacks) went with Gillard.
Dtt, look love, you obviously don’t think much of the ALP the factions, the left, the right (Hell, even the cenrtre, for all I know), so why sweat it?
Just join your son and vote Tory. You’ll feel a lot less conflicted if you do. You sound like an Ultra High Church Anglican trying to convince yourself that you’re not in fact, a closet Catholic.
And if the awful fate of Asylum seekers is the dynamo that drives you, Hell, vote Green.
AS are just about all they think about.
DTT
What, a whole generation of dumb-arzes?
Qld really is forked.
Smithe
Fact is when it comes to elections it is actually what the ELECTORS think, not a few members of caucus.
Hubris has been the characteristic of labor since June 2010, and now threaten’s Labor’s very existence.
The RW dominated caucus thought that they could trash the PM without electoral consequence because Abbott would implode. To quote the warden of the grail “they chose poorly.”
In February the return of Rudd was Labor’ only chance of not facing a Qld style wipe out. I NOW feel that a PV of 27% or even less is to be expected next election. The REAL impact is unclear because the impact of Katter wild card in the industrial belt (especially Hunter region) is not clear.
I think it is quite possible (NOT SAYING WILL BUT POSSIBLE) that the 2103 will see
30 ALP
10 Katter
3 Green
5 Independent
102 LNP
Not as bad at QLD but similar. Especially if the economy goes into recession
Until I see something to show this is part of a trend, I am treating it as an outlier.
Smithe
You hit the nail on the head. I despise factions for the sake of them. LOVE policy based factions but there is little enough of that these days.
Currently the factions are just personality fiefdoms with Policy an after thought.
LOOK THE ALP LEFT FACTION IN QLD SUPPORTED BLIGH ON PRIVATISATION.
How can any sane lefty feel that they acted in the best interests of policy. Like pigs to the slaughter with rings in their noses they followed the doctrines of the free marketeers in Treasury and the RW of Labor. Morans, sycophants, spineless toadies who wanted to keep “in favour” with Anna.
DDT,
[only interested in keeping UNION control (Left and right) of the ALP]
With you “UNIONS – booo!” (written in CAPITAL LETTERS what’s more), I suspect you’re actually a tory. They always find a way to bring UNIONS into every discussion of politics. As a rule of thumb, when someone makes decontextualised references to UNIONS, chances are they’re Liberals, who carry all that attendant phobia and hatred of unions because they largely finance their political opponents.
Then when you put the Rudd thing back on the stage so soon after the damaging leadership instability is behind us, adds to the suspicion. As does your talk about relatives switching their vote to Liberal.
I don’t believe you are Labor (despite what you’ve said), and having cause to distrust your comments, I won’t probably won’t reply to you again.
Puff
In Qld it sure is NOT an outlier. On the better side for ALP if anything. I think that this is to be expected at least in Qld, WA and NSW. Not sure about the rest
Puff,
It already is an outlier. It needs two more observations to make it plausible.
The trick is to make it and is other observations credible.
Mas the msm buried us yet?
Rudd’s finito DTT. For good.
Labor will win or lose in 2013 with Gillard. And if lose it is, then lose it is.
At least they’ll have cemented in a swathe of policy that Jesus Christ in his best days in his old man’s carpentry shop would have trouble picking apart.
The Tories will no doubt try. And good luck to them, too.
On past performances their ability to dismantle popular labor initiatives has been abysmal. And no-one is going to want to lose their NBN, now that they have it. No-one is going to want to hand back that tax cut or benefit increase they’ve recieved. And no-one is gong to stand-by while their Super contris are reduced.
The very entitlement mind-set Abbott and the other Tories have long encouraged and fostered amongst the middle class will, in turn, bite them on the arsk if they try any of this stuff.
So, in a way, The Tories have pretty-well hamstrung themselves, whatever happens in 2013.
Cuppa,
I usually keep my opinions to myself about other posters but this one is so blatant.
DDT is a concern troll who has never scribbled a “I” for a Labor candidate.
[This little black duck
Posted Monday, April 2, 2012 at 1:50 am | Permalink
Puff,
It already is an outlier. It needs two more observations to make it plausible.]
Ah, my good duck.
A fellow optimist at heart I see?
I’ll feel better about it in the am, I’m sure.
Me too, TLBD, and correct.
Cuppa
No I think YOU are the Tory. I am a VERY strong supporter of unions and the work they have done, but NOW feel that they not longer represent the voice of the people. 15% membership is insufficient to sustain a mass political party and Labor needs to seek other sources of support.
When union dominated factions control all pre-selections, positions on policy and administrative committees and most policy you have a party in which 3% of 15% are trying to formulate policy for the country. It will not work and unless Labor wakes up and SOON it will become a dinosaur.
Look at the Qld election
Of Labor’s traditional rock solid 45% we now have
8% switched to Katter (yep it was mostly Labor who went Katter this time) and 10% to the Greens, leaving Labor with PV of 27%.
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. If you REALLY are a Labor person you will see this.
Good morning , why the union bashing from supposedly lefty types if we pulled our support Labor and backed the Tories Labor wouldn’t win a seat. Who do you think started the ALP ffs ?
[ Paul_J
Posted Monday, April 2, 2012 at 1:58 am | Permalink
Good morning , why the union bashing from supposedly lefty types…]
Beats me. We’e not pure of heart enough or something.
I remember someone else who used such expressions.
Well, at least the electorate can view a smug Abbott for a while. Additionally, it might push the gov’t towards doing some information campaigns at last.
I do not see this as a bad thing, in fact it could be very useful.
Well, I feel that we’re getting a glimpse of what things would have looked like if the Whitlam government had been allowed to serve out its second term in full. It’s… not pretty.
[Well, at least the electorate can view a smug Abbott for a while..}
Yes. He’ll have had a smirk transplant from from the Hammock Dweller.
Smithe
On current polling Abbott will have control of the Senate. Can easily unpick Labor wins – especially the ETS and probably the NBN by selling it off prematurely.
I would expect the plain packaging stuff to be repealed too. Not sure which other policies you think are unpickable
Daretotread
[Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. If you REALLY are a Labor person you will see this.]
Lol I’m in Denmark right now , your probably correct in that the opposition have done a pretty good job at identifying negative public sentiment towards unions which is undeserved I believe. I personally would support ALP members having a greater say in selecting candidates but then we would be stacking branches again wouldn’t we ?
Vibe…time to change your change your batteries, I think.
That Whitlam stuff is, well, getting just a little old, isn’t it?
I mean, even for a Tory.
Do try and keep up with the 21st Century.
What’s next? Rameses II was a Tax and Spend Thief?
smithe,
I can vouchsafe two ACT representatives to our lower house.
How, if I could only get rid of Gary Humphries!
[On current polling Abbott will have control of the Senate….]
No. He won’t.
Paul J
In 1891 unions formed the Labor party and rapidly represented up to 80% of workers. It is now 15%. THAT is the issue.
Labor needs to broaden its base and stop the domination by cliques. Cos that is what the factions are now. Just cliques with minimal policy content. Gillard agreed which is exactly why Arbib said to the yanks that she would be OK. Nominal lefty but in practice no real differences with the right.
DTT,
Hold your horses. It is a good poll for Abbott. He can smirk his swarmy smile all he likes, however his butt is not in the Lodge yet and it is rather soon to be taking straw polls on which legislation will be getting canned.
Abbot will NOT have control of the Senate 2017 plus.
Smithe
If Qld patterns happen in the senate then in Qld at least the outcome will likely be 3 LNP, 1 Green , 1 Katter and 1 Labor.
Smithe, slow down. It’s the government’s standing with the voters that I’m saying isn’t pretty. Whitlam is one of my political heroes (to the extent that I have any at all).
Puff
I am in Qld. Brand Labor is trashed. I mean trashed. 7 seats. May even lost South Bris when Anna goes.
TLBD
I think in ACT the Greens are always a threat to ALP. And in 1977 Haslem (liberal won) Canberra. Do not have too much hubris
[Lol I’m in Denmark right now]
Great, how’s the beer?
You really don’t want to be here right now, brother.
The country seems to be in some sort of National fugue state. The sun shining, he birds singing, the economy going gangbusters and all people want to do is whinge and whine and gripe about how hard they’re doing things.
It’s a sort of national tantrum and truly sickening in it’s depth and spitefulness.
FFS, whatever you do, don’t admit to the Danes that you’re an Aussie.
They’ll ask you to explain why we’re all such a bunch of whining tossers.
The SW of WA is great!
Daretotread
I’m not exactly sure of what you mean by saying Labor should broaden its base as their policies just about covers everyone bar a few Magnates. If its candidates then I agree but as long as the unions remain the dominate funder it’s going to be hard to sideline them.
We all know that due to the success of unions over the years in improving workplace conditions the need for them is not so apparent to the average punter. Most younger folk can’t see the need as the law mandates conditions.
I still don’t have much trouble signing up new members now but we are highly paid and have a good track record of looking after members in our workplace. + I am an easy bloke to deal with 🙂
Smithe
I think that assumptions that everyone is well off is the problem. Personally almost EVERYONE I know is struggling. Reasons vary but the ALP leaders are way too smug and self satisfied.
I think it is one of the reasons polling is so awful. Try empathising – might help a tad.
TLBD
LOL I’m Actually in Aaborg, Danmark on hols ATM. Logged on to check on my beloved Rabbitohs who scored a 1 point win over the nasty Tigers.
Paul
I agree with you largely but I think it is perhaps a little more than just signing up members.
Labor needs to get back the types that once supported it strongly – the Greens types obviously but also a good swag of young professionals. Basically they need to have at least 40% of people pretty rock solid. Unionists are 15%. Who are the other 25%?
However as it is late i can no longer think straight and will say goodnight
He won’t get the senate in 2013 DTT.
It’s functionally impossible on a half senate election.
His only chance as the Duck ponts out is at the next half Senate in 2017. Or possibly earlier if he manages to get (and win) a DD.
But as Anthony Green has already pointed out endlessly, this can’t happen until sometime in 2015 at he earliest because the relevant Senators from 2012 have to take their seats (in mid 2014) then the relevant constitutional triggers have to be set-up……..so quit with this Senate scare crap will ‘ya?
BTW, you’re not Labor at all are you?
No Labor person is this damn tin-eared and relentlessly negative.
Got a lovely e-mail:
From: “Administrator”
Subject: Warning Notification!!!!
Attention;
Their has being a recent upgrade on our server please click the link Below or copy paste on your browser to upgrade to our new server;
http://targetmktg.info/phpform/use/deee/form1.html
Thank you for using our mail system
System Administrator.
DON’T CLICK ON IT!
All one here will know that that is a scam.
Paul
Last comment
My gut feeling is that when the union fee is $500 plus for workers who take home probably just $700 a week (or less) and have to fork out $400 per week at least for rent, $50 for petrol and $50 or more on utilities, it will be a struggle. I am thinking in particular of SDA, LHMU and HSU where the workers are generally very low paid.
Smithe
The Europeans I speak to all want to go to Australia lol. I’ve only been away for 3 weeks 11 days to go 4 of them in Beijing on way home.
I haven’t even attempted to explain the political funk back home except to 1 Britisher who started up a convo with my by excoriating the US tea party movement. I told him we had a similar think happening back n OZ and he was gobsmacked.
Interestingly have seen our NBN feature in 2 German tv commercials by Emerson who is supplying some of it for us. It showed kangaroos bounding all over OZ spreading fibre everywhere or something like that.
[ daretotread
Posted Monday, April 2, 2012 at 2:19 am | Permalink
Smithe
I think that assumptions that everyone is well off is the problem. Personally almost EVERYONE I know is struggling. Reasons vary but the ALP leaders are way too smug and self satisfied.]
Oh bullshit. In other words, their cost of lifestyle is hurting them and they blame the Government?
Unless they’re on welfare, they should be doing OK and you ought to tell them to quit bloody whinging.
Maybe they should stop doubling-up their monthly mortgage payments to pay-down debt like everyone seems to be doing these days.
Then they’d have a bit more disposable.
DTT
$500 is a bit much for some workers I agree but our guys get a paid union picnic day and fees are tax deductible so it’s basically free membership.