The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
bb
[Protection racket’ shielding MP: Tony Abbott]
More trashing of brand government.
This time FWA and the DPP are obviously being threatened by someone with having their children abducted or their houses being burned down if they don’t fall into line and hang, draw and quarter Mr Thompson…
Oh, wait…
Mr Abbott is threatening to trash the reputations of FWA and the DPP if they don’t fall into line and hang, draw and quarter Mr Thompson…
More confirmation that Mr Abbott is the most destructive and dangerous LOTO we have ever had. Narcissists/sociopaths are amoral. They are indifferent to the damage they cause. They are at the centre of the universe. Nothing else matters.
This Peter Martin character from Fairfax seems to be no different to any other journalist associated with that organisation or with the MSM in general. Concentrated mainstream media is on its last legs and the NBN could deliver the final blow, so the proprietors and their foot-soldiers (journalists) are doing everything to hold back the tide. I for one can’t wait for newspapers, radio and TV in it current form to disappear or at least lose potency. I look forward to a time when the communication infrastructure makes it possible to get news from a range of sources – hopefully anyone will be able to set up TV and radio stations and deliver them over the NBN digitally. Some will probably be worse than what we have, some will be better than what we have.
Thanks Finns re Kathy Jackson. I missed that. I caught a bit of lunchtime Agenda which was pretty woeful with Andrew Laming being given a lovely dorothy dixer by Keiran Gilbert. Such innocence from Laming!
I switched off when Gilbert gave Peter Debnam (ex NSW Lib pollie) a lovely go at the FWA issue.
I live in a small rural community and we have a community email tree that gets information out to everyone about things that are happening. We get about 3-4 messages a year warning folks that the ‘Microsoft’ scammers are at it again. It seems that they just ring through cycles of phone numbers regardless of the reception they get. We have received at least three of these calls telling us we have a problem with our ‘Windows computer’. Which is always amazing as, apart from my work laptop, we only run Apple devices in this house. They keep calling back even though we inform them of this little hitch in their scam.
They must make some reasonable money out of it. They always sound like they’re in a very busy call centre.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/apr/04/leveson-inquiry-dpp-pushback-met
Interesting’.”’
sohar
The old media critique has so far failed utterly in stopping the march of progress.
So how come the abc sees a poll ,did they see it where in msm or where
GW,
Stop being called stupid. You know it hurts.
[ FWA – Stacked full of ex-union hacks and heavies ]
Unions BOO! Didn’t work in 2007 did it?
The Labor Government is supposed to have all the ex-union hacks & heavies in it isn’t it?
Blimey there must be a lot of them. Even the PM gets that label occasionally even though she was a lawyer.
Actually, most of them are lawyers but Doogie will proudly stick up his hand as will the two Fergusons.
You’re funny, stoopid, Wizzer. Hard to go past for a good laugh! 😉
my say
What poll are you referring to?
GW
Have you got one of these calls about your computer? Have you signed up yet?
[Scientists and teachers have accused free market think tank The Institute of Public Affairs of spreading disinformation by sending copies of Ian Plimer’s latest book to hundreds of schools around the country.
Plimer’s tome, How to Get Expelled from School: a guide to climate change for pupils, parents and punters, argues that the theory of man-made global warming is a scientific and financial scam.
Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University’s Climate Change Institute, described the IPA’s bid to influence science teaching as a “dangerous development”.
“They’re an advocacy group; they’re putting forward the position of vested interests,” he said. “This can happen in the political sphere; it shouldn’t happen in the educational sphere.]
Ah, the good old IPA.
mari’s twit-fight with the IPA should have asked:
why doesn’t the IPA pay tax?
It’s exempt under the Income Tax Assessment Act, section 50-5.
Must be because it’s a charity (itself) rather than an educative business.
BH,
I’m glad Laming has emerged.
He was under investigation for months over rorting his print allotment and remained in Parliament doing all his usual things throughout that inquiry by the DPP.
When Abbott runs the Thomson should not serve line, he’s a good one to expose the opportunism and hypocrisy of the Libs. The other one is Mary Jo of course.
[Ah, the good old IPA.]
Apparently, the good old IPA is infiltrating #TheirABC’s Play School.
[Can anyone ever remember a union being suspended? I can’t but it migh have been before my time]
Yes. More than once (& that’s not counting pre1949). I’m having trouble locating/ finding the right key words for info. This below is as good as I’ve achieved in over half an hour, so I hope it’s correct – but I’m not guaranteeing it!
From memory, BLF (during Bill Gallagher’s rein). One or more during Painters & Dockers RC (prob P&D itself – on a par with US’s infamous postwar Teamsters Union). During/ not long after the 50s Split in Q & later in Victoria Reassessing the Victorian Trades Hall ‘Split’ of 1967–73
[The suspension of 27 unions from the Victorian Trades Hall Council (THC) from 1967 to 1973, colloquially referred to as the ‘split’, has long been regarded as a classic case of internal union conflict.]
The P&D Royal Commission created a climate in which criminal union thuggery (inc murder) had to be stamped out “root and branch” and the Hawke Gov’s Accord facilitated that and union restructuring & and tighter control. Most internal Union problems were addressed during amalgamations to create mega-unions as PostRestructuring saw manufacturing, metalworking etc decrease.
Some minor unions, esp in female-dominated para-professional/ non-professional industries (eg HSU) avoided being incorporated into bigger conglomerates, esp the “Missos” (Miscellaneous workers). But among the costs of staying on the outside is bigger unions’ rigorous financial oversight.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/apr/04/rupert-murdoch-american-media-immunity
Lord Barry Bonkton @ 3998
A couple of months ago the same topic came up on a thread here and there were some very creative and funny stories of how some bludgers dealt with the scamsters. One that springs to mind is a bludger pretended to be a detective at a crime scene and wanted to know what the scamster was doing ringing that number and did he know the murder victim…. 😆 😆 😆
[The Finnigans
Posted Thursday, April 5, 2012 at 3:22 pm | Permalink
Ah, the good old IPA.
Apparently, the good old IPA is infiltrating #TheirABC’s Play School.]
How so?
Finns, back the page before newspoll was finns just teasing,
my say
I must have missed that post by Finns
Finns 3975 victoria
Anyone wanting to destroy Fairwork Australia, whether it be Tony Abbot or the WA Liberals or our “truthful”contributor Geewizz,is out to do this country a grevious harm. It is one thing to suggest reforms, which, in the course of time, may be necessary, but to suggest destroying the structure of Industrial Relations in this country is treasonable.
my say
Finns can confirm, but probably making observation of how Their ABC reported latest poll
Hang on @TonyAbbottMHR , how many from the AWB scandal went to jail as they spent $220m of our money bribing
GG
If I remember correctly the AFP did the correct thing by PM Howard and informed him that members of his “team” were about to be raided. Mr Howard naturally, to ensure procedural fairness, informed the Members of the intending raids.
Interference by the former PM? Nah. 😆
[Finns, back the page before newspoll was finns just teasing,]
my say, i was just making a point about the difference between #TheirABC reporting & expressing an opinion.
Hi Geewhiz. I am glad William allowed you back on the site! You certainly bring a different perspective, albeit one that I rarely agree with… Re the Abetz allegations of bias in appointments to FWA, a quick look at their website indicates there are around 100 individuals listed as Presidents, Deputy Presidents, Commissioners or Panel Members. I can only assume that these individuals comprise the “bench” that Senator Abetz refers to his in his statement. I have no idea what the respective backgrounds of those 100-odd individuals might be, but I would say its a fair bet that quite a few might come from legal and business backgrounds. To conclude that FWA has been stacked through 5 out of 6 recent appointees coming from union backgrounds does not really add up, unless we can demonstrate that these appointments somehow or other tipped the representative balance. I certainly don’t accept that to be the case – someone with more time on their hands than I do might be able to work out what the backgrounds of those 100-odd FWA “bench” members might be – as it stands, I don’t really place much weight on the Abetz statement.
Finns,
As Downer repeated 180 times in his sworn evidence at the Royal Commission into AWB, “I can’t recall”.
“Jemima and Little Ted loved their new high speed internet. However, Big Ted refused to buy into this socialist propaganda and voted Liberal at the election like a good bear. Now that Humpty’s in control of the economy, they took away Jemima and Little Ted’s internet and now they have to use cups on strings like everyone else”
U naught naught naughty dolphin, to morrow is special fish day, we are having lunch on the wharf
And i was going to feed u some scallops. 🙂 🙂 🙂
VK
Brilliant! 🙂
[n March 2003 there was debate over making public the royal commission’s recommendations for criminal prosecutions. Tony Abbott forcefully insisted the recommendations be kept secret. “If we were to publicly table a document which names people and recommends various prosecution actions, then we would obviously be creating a media firestorm. It may well be that not all those prosecutions go ahead, certainly I think people deserve their day in court.”]
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/keep-recommendations-secret-said-tony-abbott/
Leroy – well, well! Has anybody other than Malcolm Farr mentioned that to Abbott?
Finns,
Here’s a sample of the issues that the ACTU have considered in regard the suspension, not withstanding the multi million $ debt. This doesn’t mention the magazine issue either.
[ Meanwhile, pressure on union president Michael Williamson – who is understood to be among those named in the Fair Work report – continued to mount ahead of the release of findings by the HSU’s internal audit. Sources predicted attempted moves against Mr Williamson from within the union.
After revelations reported in The Age last year, Mr Williamson stood aside on full pay, while the HSU appointed Ian Temby, QC, to review the union’s tender, recruitment and expenditure processes and the use of corporate credit cards within HSU East, which covers NSW and Victoria.
It is understood Mr Temby has examined a company associated with Mr Williamson’s family, which has received more than $400,000 from the HSU for ”secretarial services”.
Mr Williamson is also alleged to have failed to disclose that his son pays about $70 a week rent to use an HSU building bought in 2006 for almost $800,000. The union then spent $500,000 on renovations including putting in a recording studio that is rented out by Mr Williamson’s son.
The Age has previously revealed that Mr Williamson’s company, United Edge, received about $1 million a year to provide IT services to the union.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/thomson-inquiry-misfires-20120404-1wdaf.html
With regard to the suspension of the HSU and the reasons behind it I believe the ACTU is looking more at the impending internal audit and the fact that two people would appear to figure in the findings of both that internal audit report and the FWA report.
The fact that the two names constant with both audit reports are still with the union is a very important factor in the decision taken today by the ACTU.
Mr Thomson is not one of those.
[U naught naught naughty dolphin, to morrow is special fish day, we are having lunch on the wharf]
my say, you can eat me anytime
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQwy30srUdxw_RrnFRIjZ5M5JhRMexROXAVGIB_HGZ21g7Atk_qOgFesEAn
[zoomster @3676
Very well put. Argued well as are all of your posts.
I greatly admire your efforts at grass roots level in a conservative country electorate. I think you are right, that you can’t just let nonsense pass unchallenged.]
Zoomster – GorgeousD is right. I appreciate your posts because the arguments are so helpful to the rest of us who come up against the issues in our electorates. Please take this as a huge thankyou for past and future posts.
BTW – hope the hips have settled down a little
Scorp, thanks. So ACTU should make it clear then. ATM, they are muddling the water.
Wee Jizz,
[Before calling me stupid please read this:
http://www.wa.liberal.org….]
And what did you do? Directed readers to a Lieberal Party link.
You ARE stupid!
Wee Jizz,
[Before calling me stupid please read this:
http://www.wa.liberal.org….
]
And what did you do? Directed readers to a Lieberal Party link.
You ARE stupid!
Borewar 4001
You really do suffer from Tourette’s Syndrome
Read the absolute rubbish you spout back
Then go and call your doctor for some assistance maybe Diogenes could help as he is supposed to be a doctor.
While your waiting borrow someone’s dictionary and check on the actual meaning of the words you toss around like confetti.
[ And what did you do? Directed readers to a Lieberal Party link.
You ARE stupid! ]
The truth certainly hurts! 👿
[The fact that the two names constant with both audit reports are still with the union is a very important factor in the decision taken today by the ACTU.]
doyley – do you think that is why Kathy Jackson was ‘all over the place today’ as some have said. She has cosied up to Abbott and his mates so may now be a bit sorry for that.
Well that’s provided my laugh for the afternoon.
Our resident tame-cat tory, pleading for the Independents to force the hand of the PM “otherwise they have not credibility” over the HSU issue.
Ha! Ha! Ho! Ho!
Is this the same set of Independents that WA Redneck and Liberal Mouthpiece, Howard Sattler and Paul Murray have, ages ago, called “carpetbaggers” and wtte, “traitors” to the conservative cause?
So, having already had the boots stuck in because Abbott couldn’t bribe them they are now supposed to keep their integrity in one piece by tyring to do something they clearly have no power to do.
As I have often noted, the conservatives would metaphorically eat their own children to get into and stay in power.
There u are finns the fish resurant,
http://www.virtualtourist.com/travel/Australia_and_Oceania/Australia/State_of_Tasmania/Hobart-1875172/Restaurants-Hobart-Mures_Seafood_Restaurant-BR-1.html
Whoops “no credibility” and “trying” not tyring in 4043
The gist of the message is unchanged.
ah yes, My say, we still have a lunch date to fulfill, have we not?
Abbott making an idiot of himself on ABC95.
Wow. Abott there are corruption charges involving Craig Thomson.
How long before a leadership change?
BH,
I do not think Ms Jackson has properly considered any of her actions since becoming high profile in this.
I think there is a very good chance it will all come home to bite her now.
stanny
[Borewar 4001
You really do suffer from Tourette’s Syndrome
Read the absolute rubbish you spout back
Then go and call your doctor for some assistance maybe Diogenes could help as he is supposed to be a doctor.
While your waiting borrow someone’s dictionary and check on the actual meaning of the words you toss around like confetti.]
If those words were a bit big for you, here it is in small words:
It is time youg guys got rid of your power-crazed creep.