Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, which combines the results of the last two weekends’ surveys, is Labor’s weakest so far this year: their primary vote is down two points on the poll of March 3-4 to 37 per cent, with the Coalition up two to 45.5 per cent and the Greens up half a point to 10.5 per cent. The Coalition has strengthened two points on both two-party preferred measures, now leading 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52-48 on preferences as they divided at the 2010 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,425 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  6. I’ve asked for an extension re:subscription since Crikey has been down so much.

    William, any chance of a group sub with an extra week or two?

  7. There will be, GP. Stay tuned.

    BTW, I was immensely amused to see you playing the crusader for free speech on Twitter the other week apropos the Finkelstein report. You took Chris Mitchell’s side over #twitdef, and I once booted you off this site for threatening to sue another commenter.

  9. [What, you want to associate yourself with us GP?]

    only when there’s a dollar to be made/saved

    other than that collective bargaining should be unlawful 😉

  10. No 7

    Baggins, I have more solid principles on this now. Concede my earlier positions are apparently inconsistent, but I’ve changed my views for the better.

  11. [I refrain from participating in this blog because the most interesting adversaries have been banned or have left.]

    That’s a shame. It would have been interesting to have a member of the Tea Party participating here.

  13. No 7

    That all being said, the Finkelstein report’s main recommendation for a media super regulator is utterly ridiculous, even if I agreed that people should be able to arbitrarily sue people for defamation.

  14. [Concede my earlier positions are apparently inconsistent, but I’ve changed my views for the better]

    a.k.a. walking both sides of the street – as usual

  15. [I refrain from participating in this blog because the most interesting adversaries have been banned or have left.]
    Apple Blossom (AKA Bonita) says that she is interested in you participating in this coming Speed Dating Friday.

    Make of that what you will.

  16. [even if I agreed that people should be able to arbitrarily sue people for defamation]

    which will see a continuation of the rich and powerful winning almost every time as they can afford the cost of litigation.

  19. [Baggins, I have more solid principles on this now. Concede my earlier positions are apparently inconsistent, but I’ve changed my views for the better.]
    Do you now concede that your desire that you expressed in early 2009 for Australia to have as deep a recession as possible simply so you could say that fiscal stimulus never works was at best wrong headed, and and worst the idiotic ravings of a moronic lunatic who is also a sadist?

  20. shellbell

    [While you are around, given his symptoms, would Craig Thomson ordinarily be recommended for a colonscopy? If so, he has my every sympathy.]

    Not normally if he just had abdominal pain. If he has other symptoms or it doesn’t settle he might have a “top and tail” (ie endoscopy and colonoscopy).

  23. [No 19

    When comes to your usual obscenities, I concede not a scintilla.]
    Don’t be such a wimp, just admit that saying it would be good for Australia to go into recession was wrong.

  25. Funnily enough no comments as yet on Morgan Face to Face. Would that be the “narrowing” angle is not quite playing out. I assume we will all be waiting until July for the next lot of narrowing predictions.
    Bill you have done your usual Morgan Face to Face extrapolations putting Labor into rose coloured glasses territory.

  30. Lovely the way Bob Carr is recommending books for Senators to read.
    He’s also detailed the changes of AGW.
    He’s trying to educate them.
    😆

  33. [Do you now concede that your desire that you expressed in early 2009 for Australia to have as deep a recession as possible simply so you could say that fiscal stimulus never works was at best wrong headed, and and worst the idiotic ravings of a moronic lunatic who is also a sadist?]

    Oh yes, that rather immature spiel – he is at least consistent with the three stooges who would love our economy to tank. I wonder if he would donate his tax cut to the cancer foundation or simply pocket it whilst complaining about the Labor government’s lack of concern for small business. I guess we won’t know for sure as his party of choice is ignoring the concerns of small business.

  34. BH @ 1224 on previous thread

    Ed Husic has been quite witty answering the MPI. Satirising the Oppn’s constant MPI’s is better than getting steamed up about them.

    Agree 100%. Ridicule is a devastating weapon as PJK proved time and again and before him Gough Whitlam.

    Who could forget Whitlams jibe at McMahon about ‘Tiberius on the telephone’ or, when the Fib’s forgot to update Billy Snedden’s age on a publication, ‘The Peter Pan of Politics’. And many more like those. Once the voters are laughing at your opponent, you have them beaten.

  36. [Funnily enough no comments as yet on Morgan Face to Face. Would that be the “narrowing” angle is not quite playing out. ]

    I think the general opinion here is who gives a fark this far out from an election with several potential game changers about to take effect.

  37. [great maiden speech by bob carr in senate now! a real man of substance.]

    Certainly is a change from Moe, Larry, Curly and “Interest rates will always be lower under the Coalition.”

    I fear a lot of it went over their heads.

  38. [ Apple Blossom (AKA Bonita) says that she is interested in you participating in this coming Speed Dating Friday. ]
    She doesn’t want diamonds only help with the essay!

  39. Changes are within MOE. Nothing to see.

    Not to mention it’s a Morgan F2F. We didn’t crow over the last one, which was overly positive for the ALP, and this one doesn’t merit any greater consideration.

  40. Stanny, for the millionth time, the reason I prefer the previous-election method over respondent-allocation is for the same reason as every other pollster prefers it – because it is shown to be more accurate every single time. As well as that – and here we run into a problem, because it involves you having to hold two thoughts in your head at the same time, and you aren’t intelligent enough to do this – Morgan face-to-face polls are biased in favour of Labor.

  42. Generic Person
    Posted Wednesday, March 21, 2012 at 4:53 pm | Permalink
    I refrain from participating in this blog because the most interesting adversaries have been banned or have left.

    You will find them here: h­ttp://afrankview.net/

    Off you go now and have fun with Frank and his playmates. 👿

  44. Bob Carr lays out some of the facts on AGW.
    Next Coal speaker follows with “Julia lied on carbon tax”.
    I wish they’d raise their heads and look for the truth for once.

  46. Wanky Lib senator on now claiming that not only was some money wasted on the HIP, BER and Laptops programs, but that all of it was lost. The bloody lot.

    Do they really believe this rubbish?

    I’m missing Bob Carr already.

  47. [Off you go now and have fun with Frank and his playmates. :evil:]

    For the 10 seconds he’d last there.

    There are times when a robust moderation policy is perfectly proper.

  49. HoR now debating ELECTORAL AND REFERENDUM AMENDMENT (MAINTAINING ADDRESS) BILL 2011.

    Potentially, more Labor voters. The Noalition will hate it.

  50. [http://www.theage.com.au/business/bankers-try-to-reoccupy-the-moral-high-ground-20120321-1vj8t.html]

    Hockey and Co really haven’t got a clue about public perceptions. Imagine mixing with this bunch of scoundrels.

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