Queensland election minus three days

Couple more things:

• Probably should have checked the ReachTEL site when discussing the Courier-Mail’s reporting on polling done for Katter’s Australian Party over the past few days. The full results for Hinchinbrook and Beaudesert are available there (external party polling, I guess you could call it). They show the KAP’s Jeff Knuth (once a One Nation MP, and whose brother Shane is the KAP’s member for Dalrymple) doing well but not quite well enough in Hinchinbrook, and a tight race between KAP incumbent Aidan McLindon and LNP challenger Jon Krause in Beaudesert. However, results are not provided for the Mount Isa poll referred to yesterday.

• Heavy storm damage has given Anna Bligh an opportunity to play to her strengths in Townsville, where Labor is at risk of losing Townsville, Thuringowa and Mundingburra. This also coincides nicely with Bligh’s “blitz” of visiting 50 electorates in five days, reprising a tactic which appeared to work remarkably well for her at the last election.

• My guess as to the result. I’m tipping Labor to lose everything on a margin of up to 8.5 per cent, though no doubt the swing will not be quite as clean as that and I’ll be wrong on a fair few seats either side. I’m giving Labor the benefit of the doubt in Thuringowa (8.5 per cent) because of the Townsville storms and Mulgrave (8.1 per cent) because Curtis Pitt is due for a sophomore surge. No rabbit out of the hat for Kate Jones in Ashgrove. I’ve been blowing hot and cold over Katter’s Australia Party, but their 8 per cent showing in Galaxy has switched me to hot: One Nation managed three seats on similar numbers in 2001. I’ve never been in much doubt that Shane Knuth would win Dalrymple, and I’m giving them Mount Isa and Nanango as well. Nobody’s discussed the three sitting independents much that I’ve seen, but I suspect Chris Foley and Peter Wellington might be in trouble in Maryborough and Nicklin. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt though. Totals: LNP 64, Labor 19, KAP 3, Independents 3.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

17 comments on “Queensland election minus three days”

  1. While I don’t expect Labor to win, I hope that the election result is narrower than the polls.

    I personally didn’t like the surprise privatization move after 2009 as I thought that was quite sneaky and devious. But Qld Labor has at least kept the same leader for the past 5 years and hasn’t had the factional heavies push everyone around like in NSW.

    I lived in Townsville from 2000-2004 and was in a state high school in that time. It improved greatly every single year, which I doubt would have ever happened under an LNP government. It’s a shame that society didn’t change as fast, as Townsville was not a very pleasant place for a teenager that discovered that they’re homosexual, and the trauma still hurts me to this day. At least Labor has made some moves to address that needed social change, the LNP seems quite keen on reversing them back.

    I hope that Labor gets at least 45% of the 2pp vote on the day. I don’t think they deserve a huge loss.

  2. Has there been any “secret internal polling” leaked by either of the major parties, either for the overall result or individual seats?

    I reckon if you offered both major parties (and the KAP) William’s predicted outcome they’d probably take it.

  3. I think that the likely victory by the LNP with a Brisbane based leader (almost certainly Newman) will benefit the Katter Party at the Next Queensland election.

  4. That should be interesting William. Hard to think it could be worse for Newman than the last poll given what has happened in the meantime but this isn’t you usual election.

  5. William your prediction of 64 seats for the LNP is spot on with the betting agencies. Seems like too big a win but we will know soon enough.

  6. Mod Lib said:

    [I think your opening and concluding sentences don’t really synch! If you are right and the ALP get 10 or 11 seats (I actually suspect about 16 on the day but doesn’t really change my point) in the election, the LNP are there for 2 to 3 terms.]

    They may well be there for 2 to 3 terms (and personally, I’ll be somewhat surprised if Newman/LNP mess up badly enough in the eyes of their own constituency not to get a second term), but that’s not the same as saying they will be for sure. Their crowd have been away from power for a long time. There will be some blunders and with such a large majority discipline will be hard to come by. A whole lot of people who have come in on the wave will know that it was largely disaffected ALP voters who put them there, and on the other hand, the tensions between the Libs and Nats will not have disappeared, especially with Katter/McLindon on the right stirring up angst, the centripetal forces within the regime will be strong. Also, once the ALP regime has been punished and the new regime’s grace period wears thin, Ashgrove is going to look vulnerable again. If Newman only wins narrowly, he’s in the frame for losing even if the regime survives.

    So a second term is not a complete gimme, IMO, especially if the ALP can focus on making itself relevant to ALP voters.

  7. William

    With reference to your belief that Curtis Pitt will hold on in Mulgrave.

    Do you think that the sophomore effect holds true to the same extent when a big swing is on (as this seems as though it will be) and when the member is a second generation MP for the seat – new or same old same old?

    Were there any sophomore members that held on in NSW for example?

  8. BBS, I would suggest that when there’s a huge swing on the sophomore surge effect is hard to discern because it’s being drowned out by other factors, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t there. The father-to-son effect is an interesting question. As you say, it could mean it’s lower. On the other hand, it could mean it’s higher – he’s now proved his worth to people who thought his ascension nepotistic last time (maybe).

  9. [No election is a complete gimmie as federal Labor found out in 2010.]

    Mumbles’ brilliant analysis suggests over and over again that in fact many elections are gimmie.

  10. [Final ReachTEL poll for Ashgrove out tomorrow morning.]

    Only excitement we have left on this one. A slug without a head, Clive may have to step in and rule directly.

  11. The Another Liberal Party has abandoned all of its members/candidates north of Rockhampton in relation to finances and resources. It is only the LNP that is running a postal vote campaign that you don’t have to ring up to have the relevant papers sent. The implication is obvious!

  12. [It is only the LNP that is running a postal vote campaign that you don’t have to ring up to have the relevant papers sent.]

    It makes you wonder why they are bothering, given the marginal value of such an expenditure is probably zero.

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