Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 on two-party preferred, but this obscures a lot of movement on the primary vote: Labor down four after a curious aberration a fortnight ago to 31 per cent, the Coalition down two to 43 per cent (its lowest result in almost exactly a year), the Greens up one to 12 per cent and “others” on 14 per cent (“last that high in September 2006”, GhostWhoVotes advises). Julia Gillard has recovered a preferred prime minister lead she lost two surveys ago, now leading 39-37 after trailing 38-36 a fortnight ago, but this is very much a case of the lesser of two evils: she has recovered only two points from the slump on her approval rating in the previous poll, to now be at 28 per cent, with her disapproval also down two to 62 per cent. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32 per cent and up one to a new high of 58 per cent. The incurably spin-happy Australian is selling this as “Wayne Swan’s attacks on the nation’s billionaire mining magnates (having) failed to lift Labor’s electoral support”, despite the figures offering no basis of any kind for making such a claim.

Meanwhile, Essential Research advises: “Because of public holiday in Melbourne our data processing people weren’t working today so report will go out tomorrow. And it will be worth the wait.”

UPDATE: Essential Research continues to part company with the phone pollsters, with its Coalition lead out from 56-44 to 57-43. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 31 per cent, and has dropped three points over the past four weeks, with the Coalition steady on 49 per cent (up two on four weeks ago) and the Greens steady on 10 per cent. As in Newspoll, the monthly measure of personal ratings has Julia Gillard taking a hit in the wake of the leadership spill, her approval down four points to 32 per cent and her disapproval up eight to 61 per cent. Tony Abbott’s figures are little changed at 36 per cent (up one) and 52 per cent (down one), and he has narrowed his deficit as preferred prime minister from 41-34 to 40-37. Approval of Bob Carr’s appointment to the Senate and foreign ministry is evenly divided at 37 per cent approval and 36 per cent approval, with strong disapproval (17 per cent) heavily outweighing strong approval (7 per cent) (which to my mind doesn’t reflect too well on the insight of the punters).

Other questions included an amusing experimental effort in which half the respondents were asked if they agreed with Wayne Swan that “Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests”, and the other half if they agreed with the statement without it being attributed to Wayne Swan. The results were extremely similar – 58 per cent agreed and 26 per cent disagreed when it was attributed to Wayne Swan, compared with 60 per cent and 24 per cent when it wasn’t – but it became so because strong partisan effects cancelled each other out, with Coalition voters especially far more inclined to reject the assertion (36 per cent agree, 51 per cent disagree) coming from Swan than when it was unattributed (55 per cent agree, 30 per cent agree). The poll also finds a decline in support for the mining tax since the question was last asked in February, with support down three points to 52 per cent and opposition up six to 34 per cent. Respondents were also asked to identify what constituted “middle income” ($60,000-$79,000 getting the highest response for individuals), “well off” and “wealthy” (with responses here very widely spread). Eighty-six per cent believed social class still existed in Australia against only 8 per cent who didn’t.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,394 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. This little black duck

    [Well! I’m glad I got that off my chest!]
    You da ” The Triple-Breasted Whore of Eroticon Six ” then ?

  2. Tom Hawkins @ 2020

    2015
    bemused

    Please, how about you and Don book a room next time.

    Sure, do you handle the bookings? πŸ˜‰

  3. A political event of global importance.

    [Chinese political scandal boils over: ‘red revival’ leader Bo sacked .
    ……Communist Party for his ambitious plans to spread Communist β€œred” nostalgia throughout the nation, Mr Bo had appeared to be in line for promotion to the ruling Communist Party’s all-powerful inner circle, the Politburo standing committee. ]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/chinese-political-scandal-boils-over-red-revival-leader-bo-sacked-20120315-1v6k1.html#ixzz1pAhBnZ00

  4. Just received an email from Tom Iggulden, political reporter on Lateline. He has informed me that his glasses are made by Prada, though he says the Prada logo has worn off, which suggests to him that his glasses may not be the genuine article.

    Incidentally, Lateline is broadcast by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. This is the same media company that will be broadcasting the photograph that I photographed in early April.

  5. My dad a humble, re returned man, farmer. a tram driver whom i adored
    told me, if you have nothing nice to say about any one , dont say it at all,,,,,,

  6. Costello must resign from the Future Fund board.

    Tonight he has said (as reported on ABC TV News) that Gonski indulged in subterfuge to get the Chairman’s position. That’s resignation territory.

    But even simpler, and more generally… Costello has gone public, airing dirty linen from within the Future Fund Board’s internal politics.

    Costello has gone on 7.30 and spat the dummy over not getting the job himself. There is NO WAY he can continue to serve on the Board. He has brought the Future Fund into disrepute, airing an egotistical position (with himself at the centre of it, naturally, again) to a TV interviewer.

    He has repeatedly (and again tonight) shat in his own nest by indulging himself in petty politics with himself as the focus… as always.

    When will this man EVER learn?

    There are no guarantees in life or employment. He was not put onto the Board as a precursor to being appointed Chairman. That is all in his own hyper-inflated head.

    It’s the Peter Costello of old… expecting to be gifted the top job without doing any work, rather by just whingeing and crying “Not fair!”.

    The man has a disturbingly over-inflated view of his own prowess as a manager. He is prepared to expose dirty dealings within the Board to the public on national television and believes he can get away with it scot free.

    Costello must go, and anyone else who supports him (and I bet there won’t be any, when push comes to shove) should go too.

    No need to listen to the interview. The very fact of the interview is enough.

    Resign, Costello, and piss off to where someone appreciates you for the neglected genius that you are.

  7. Why doesn’t the old hammock dweller go and get a real job in private industry and piss off from the public tit!!!!!!!

  8. PB seems to have stuck on Finns post at 2075.

    Isn’t this the issue that caused the move from the US to Aus servers? Hillary will not be pleased. πŸ˜›

  9. Costello doesn’t want to see the Future Fund “disappear” under Gonski. Says “standards are slipping”.

    Just go, you idiot.

  10. BB agree – Costello has brought the fund into disrepute and effectively said he has no confidence in the chairman. there is no alternative for him but to resign.

  11. So how much of a payrise would’ve the hammock dweller received if he did get the top job? Isn’t it amazing that nearly every other pollie that has left politics has been picked up by the private sector…………….but not old Cossie πŸ˜›

  12. [I can confirm that these allegations are true. The photograph can be discerned from the excellent use of framing, aperture, shutter speed, lens focal length.]
    I hope your bokeh wasn’t broke.

  13. Nothing much changes, Costello is still the biggest loser in politics!

    I couldn’t agree more, for someone who does not want to bring the future fund into disrepute, Costello is certainly doing a good job of it and should now resign.

    You can’t compare Costello with Gonski, they are light years apart when it comes to experience of a chairman of the board.

    Spot on “Rambo” Conroy, the No.1 hitter in the government πŸ™‚

  14. The FF chairman appointment is a very strange situation.

    The criticism of the government appears to be (from what Peter Costello was saying) that while it could appoint anyone it wanted to, at any time, the problem arose because it tried to get advice on who to appoint.

    The fact that they took advice, and then ignored the advice means … what exactly?

    They tried to be impartial, but the impartial process apparently (I’m still confused as to what the process involved) put up a name that was not appropriate. Peter Costello could never be seen as an impartial chairman – in addition to being one of the leading spruikers of the previous government, he has kept a political profile as a conservative commentator.

    How his name came out of the selection process is … puzzling.

    From what was said today, Peter Costello’s name was the name preferred by the current FF board … but I don’t understand why that would be the sole basis for choosing a candidate, unless those were Gonski’s terms of reference, which would be quite puzzling.

    Anyway, I’m glad the government stuck to their guns and knocked back Peter Costello. They do need to work out the terms of reference for their investigations better though … “Peter Costello is not a suitable candidate” as a term of reference seems suitable.

  15. “I put the money in – therefore it’s my fund to keep.”
    Costello’s gone troppo.
    Singing the praises of Hockey, Cormann, O’Dwyer, Briggs.
    The man’s loopy!

  16. [This little black duck
    Posted Thursday, March 15, 2012 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

    GD,

    It was strange. All the comments after yours were in italics. When I refreshed they all straightened up.]

    There’s some mighty strange goings on at present (does a Private Fraser roll of eyes).

    IthoughtBoerWarwasjustlairisingoverhislackofspacingbutwhoknows?

    Did William ban Desert Fox? It may have led to Desert Fox putting a curse on us.

  17. BB,

    But this site is seriously fucked.

    Crikey, like the Americans, will get it right in the end, with massive collateral damage.

Comments are closed.

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