Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 on two-party preferred, but this obscures a lot of movement on the primary vote: Labor down four after a curious aberration a fortnight ago to 31 per cent, the Coalition down two to 43 per cent (its lowest result in almost exactly a year), the Greens up one to 12 per cent and “others” on 14 per cent (“last that high in September 2006”, GhostWhoVotes advises). Julia Gillard has recovered a preferred prime minister lead she lost two surveys ago, now leading 39-37 after trailing 38-36 a fortnight ago, but this is very much a case of the lesser of two evils: she has recovered only two points from the slump on her approval rating in the previous poll, to now be at 28 per cent, with her disapproval also down two to 62 per cent. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32 per cent and up one to a new high of 58 per cent. The incurably spin-happy Australian is selling this as “Wayne Swan’s attacks on the nation’s billionaire mining magnates (having) failed to lift Labor’s electoral support”, despite the figures offering no basis of any kind for making such a claim.

Meanwhile, Essential Research advises: “Because of public holiday in Melbourne our data processing people weren’t working today so report will go out tomorrow. And it will be worth the wait.”

UPDATE: Essential Research continues to part company with the phone pollsters, with its Coalition lead out from 56-44 to 57-43. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 31 per cent, and has dropped three points over the past four weeks, with the Coalition steady on 49 per cent (up two on four weeks ago) and the Greens steady on 10 per cent. As in Newspoll, the monthly measure of personal ratings has Julia Gillard taking a hit in the wake of the leadership spill, her approval down four points to 32 per cent and her disapproval up eight to 61 per cent. Tony Abbott’s figures are little changed at 36 per cent (up one) and 52 per cent (down one), and he has narrowed his deficit as preferred prime minister from 41-34 to 40-37. Approval of Bob Carr’s appointment to the Senate and foreign ministry is evenly divided at 37 per cent approval and 36 per cent approval, with strong disapproval (17 per cent) heavily outweighing strong approval (7 per cent) (which to my mind doesn’t reflect too well on the insight of the punters).

Other questions included an amusing experimental effort in which half the respondents were asked if they agreed with Wayne Swan that “Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests”, and the other half if they agreed with the statement without it being attributed to Wayne Swan. The results were extremely similar – 58 per cent agreed and 26 per cent disagreed when it was attributed to Wayne Swan, compared with 60 per cent and 24 per cent when it wasn’t – but it became so because strong partisan effects cancelled each other out, with Coalition voters especially far more inclined to reject the assertion (36 per cent agree, 51 per cent disagree) coming from Swan than when it was unattributed (55 per cent agree, 30 per cent agree). The poll also finds a decline in support for the mining tax since the question was last asked in February, with support down three points to 52 per cent and opposition up six to 34 per cent. Respondents were also asked to identify what constituted “middle income” ($60,000-$79,000 getting the highest response for individuals), “well off” and “wealthy” (with responses here very widely spread). Eighty-six per cent believed social class still existed in Australia against only 8 per cent who didn’t.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,394 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. If you missed the catalyst segment on the mini-computer being built for the Antarctic, it’s worth checking out on iView.

    Figure Crikey and William could do with one!

  2. Tinfoil hat on …

    It’s almost as though some ‘forces’ would like to see Crikey fail. Fxxk them.

    BB is right, this site is seriously faarcked. Or compromised.

  3. So what is actuallly happening? It seems to go through (brief) periods of working followed by long periods of screwed-upness. Is the server having some terrible resource leak that results in it becoming unusable, resetting periodically, working briefly after coming up, and then going through it all again?

  4. Seems to be a volume/traffic related issue.

    Site opens, works fine for a time and then once everyone tries to access it crashes.

  5. Apparently, Clive Palmer is looking for media assets to “encourage” diversity.

    A $1bill from Clive might impress those recalcitrant servers.

  6. William @ 2157
    Can you arrange for all our Green comrades to start their post with and end their posts with the codes you mentioned? It will assist with identification.

    Do you have codes for our Tory friends? Perhaps a deep blue?

  7. Server: clearly someone underestimated the traffic count.

    Costello: the nasty whiteanting grizzly entitled thing has to go

    SSO: why do the Liberals try to get a SSO daily? Do they postpone legislation being passed?

  8. Watching Sky News QLD2012 Peoples’s Forum. Fuack me the Bananabender audience seem to be Straya’s Mississippians/Alabamans.

  9. [Apparently, Clive Palmer is looking for media assets to “encourage” diversity.]

    Clive will buy the High Court, the constitution and macca’s….

  10. How embarrassing was Costello when he said ‘I paid off the debt’. I didn’t know he was so wealthy! I thought he paid off the debt with our assets.

    Gee, he looks pretty well used at the moment. Not aging gracefully at all, Pete. PJK looks magnificent in comparison.

  11. Tanya Plibersek ‏ @tanya_plibersek Reply Retweeted Favorite · Open
    Private Health Insurance rebate changes pass senate: individuals on 130k or couples on 260k no longer get rebate. Fair and sensible.
    Retweeted by Le Grace

  12. There is a massive contrast between brothers Peter Costello and Tim Costello. Tim seems to take the initiative and do things for others while Peter just complains that nobody is doing anything for him.

  13. [Private Health Insurance rebate changes pass senate: individuals on 130k or couples on 260k no longer get rebate.]

    Another blow for Howard’s battlers.

  14. [How embarrassing was Costello when he said ‘I paid off the debt’. I didn’t know he was so wealthy! I thought he paid off the debt with our assets.]

    I thought he was swinging in the hammock as Australia’s long-term debt war, Snowy etc other infrastructure building debt – having been paid off by Gens WW I, Depression& WW II, Boomer & older GenX – retired itself; and Mining Boom Mark 1 did the rest!

  15. Pagasus

    [Could Mark Latham’s memorable phase “a conga line of suck holes” now be applied to Bob Carr and the Labor Party?]
    Horsey. As I said last night Carr is actually Hilarious Clinton. He was from the start a Laura Norder suckhole.Gloria’s maate. His appointment was a brilliant political move but I still blame him for setting NSW Labor on the the road to scumdom. He and Sheridan would have a real pash off whilst discussing the pertfection of Mercan foreign policy

  16. PuffTheMagicDragon PuffTheMagicDragon ‏ @PuffyTMD

    #bestblogs2012 I just nominated Pollbludger for the Best Australian Blogs 2012 Competition

  17. [PuffTheMagicDragon PuffTheMagicDragon ‏ @PuffyTMD

    #bestblogs2012 I just nominated Pollbludger for the Best Australian Blogs 2012 Competition]

    in the “most reliable” division?

  18. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    [ PuffTheMagicDragon PuffTheMagicDragon ‏ @PuffyTMD

    #bestblogs2012 I just nominated Pollbludger for the Best Australian Blogs 2012 Competition]
    While doing so I hope you also nominated Crikey IT peeps for FAIL of the year !

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