The latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 on two-party preferred, but this obscures a lot of movement on the primary vote: Labor down four after a curious aberration a fortnight ago to 31 per cent, the Coalition down two to 43 per cent (its lowest result in almost exactly a year), the Greens up one to 12 per cent and “others” on 14 per cent (“last that high in September 2006”, GhostWhoVotes advises). Julia Gillard has recovered a preferred prime minister lead she lost two surveys ago, now leading 39-37 after trailing 38-36 a fortnight ago, but this is very much a case of the lesser of two evils: she has recovered only two points from the slump on her approval rating in the previous poll, to now be at 28 per cent, with her disapproval also down two to 62 per cent. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32 per cent and up one to a new high of 58 per cent. The incurably spin-happy Australian is selling this as “Wayne Swan’s attacks on the nation’s billionaire mining magnates (having) failed to lift Labor’s electoral support”, despite the figures offering no basis of any kind for making such a claim.
Meanwhile, Essential Research advises: “Because of public holiday in Melbourne our data processing people weren’t working today so report will go out tomorrow. And it will be worth the wait.”
UPDATE: Essential Research continues to part company with the phone pollsters, with its Coalition lead out from 56-44 to 57-43. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 31 per cent, and has dropped three points over the past four weeks, with the Coalition steady on 49 per cent (up two on four weeks ago) and the Greens steady on 10 per cent. As in Newspoll, the monthly measure of personal ratings has Julia Gillard taking a hit in the wake of the leadership spill, her approval down four points to 32 per cent and her disapproval up eight to 61 per cent. Tony Abbott’s figures are little changed at 36 per cent (up one) and 52 per cent (down one), and he has narrowed his deficit as preferred prime minister from 41-34 to 40-37. Approval of Bob Carr’s appointment to the Senate and foreign ministry is evenly divided at 37 per cent approval and 36 per cent approval, with strong disapproval (17 per cent) heavily outweighing strong approval (7 per cent) (which to my mind doesn’t reflect too well on the insight of the punters).
Other questions included an amusing experimental effort in which half the respondents were asked if they agreed with Wayne Swan that “Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests”, and the other half if they agreed with the statement without it being attributed to Wayne Swan. The results were extremely similar – 58 per cent agreed and 26 per cent disagreed when it was attributed to Wayne Swan, compared with 60 per cent and 24 per cent when it wasn’t – but it became so because strong partisan effects cancelled each other out, with Coalition voters especially far more inclined to reject the assertion (36 per cent agree, 51 per cent disagree) coming from Swan than when it was unattributed (55 per cent agree, 30 per cent agree). The poll also finds a decline in support for the mining tax since the question was last asked in February, with support down three points to 52 per cent and opposition up six to 34 per cent. Respondents were also asked to identify what constituted “middle income” ($60,000-$79,000 getting the highest response for individuals), “well off” and “wealthy” (with responses here very widely spread). Eighty-six per cent believed social class still existed in Australia against only 8 per cent who didn’t.
cud chewer @ 2175
To use the Crikey Clear Comment Preview script, install in order:
Firefox
Greasemonkey
cccp
or:
Google Chrome
cccp
Once you have followed those steps you will have a help function which tells you the answer to your question and a whole lot more.
How have you survived so long without such facilities??? 😉
If you have Chrome, I would recommend installing ‘Tampermonkey’ extension before installing cccp.
It appears that, in order to stop the site crashing, bilbo will have to institute a roster system, so that the numbers of posters per session are restricted.
You know it makes sense.
‘Good’ Carr FM was on Sky – I thought he had more class
Amazing, when it is working it is like a greyhound out the gate but sometimes it is like the greyhound who’es gate didn’t open.
Still had my gripe, spat the dummy, got down and crawled around until found it again, now ready to say my apologies.
Firstly to Bemused for my foul language and my unwarranted assault, I apologise, secondly to William for using your blog to attack Bemused I am sorry.
Apparently Chris Berg from the IPA has now been made editor of The Drum replacing Jonathan Green.
[How embarrassing was Costello when he said ‘I paid off the debt’. I didn’t know he was so wealthy! I thought he paid off the debt with our assets.]
More embarrassing BH was his comment about Gonski.
[“Mr Gonski, having taken the role of being the person to get the confidence of each individual board member and report back to the Government, I would have thought disqualified him from having his own name put forward and I think that would have been good corporate practice,” he said.]
To slag off like that, It would have been good corporate practice not to put his name forward.
Cossie says that straight up about the newly appointed chair of the board that Cossie sits on. Good corporate practice, so Gonski accepting the position is what bad corporate practice?
Way to go Costello, just watch the job offers that were scarce before now flood in.
BH @ 2176
Costello is as much of a twerp as he was when I knew him at Monash Uni. One of the few people I have ever taken an immediate dislike to. Actually, can’t think of any others. 👿
PJK would be at least 10 years older than Costello.
Hey Peter, I hear there’s a job going as Financial Controller for Gerry Harvey.
Ahhhh the memory … PJK in full flow, putting Costello back in his box … The low altitude flyer…
http://t.co/Hv5DkWqb
[The federal coalition’s controversial plan to turn asylum seeker boats back to Indonesia has suffered another blow, with the country’s top diplomat labelling it “impossible”.]
Oh no, another blow!
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/indonesian-fm-dismisses-abbott-boat-plan-20120315-1v6aa.html
Can you imagine the response from the MSM if Keating had conducted himself in the absolutely disgraceful and embarrassing way the hammock dweller has today?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-15/abs-prisoner-numbers-report/3892390
[The Bureau of Statistics says the Northern Territory still has the highest imprisonment rate in Australia.]
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/fear-tough-laws-may-jail-more-aborigines-20120314-1v3nd.html
[Labor senators have expressed concern that proposed tougher penalties for alcohol offences in indigenous communities could lead to higher rates of Aboriginal imprisonment.
The warning is contained in a report by the Senate Community Affairs committee on the Gillard government’s ”Stronger Futures” proposals, which would extend by 10 years several measures introduced by the Howard government as part of its 2007 intervention in the Northern Territory.
The proposed laws extend existing alcohol restrictions and introduce tougher penalties, including six-month jail terms for offences involving less than 1350 millilitres of alcohol.]
For those who want to be informed about the latest developments on the further extension of the NTER intervention for another ten years and the Stronger Futures bill which will repeal the Northern Territory National Emergency Response Act 2007
See my earlier post at: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/03/13/newspoll-53-47-to-coalition-3/comment-page-39/#comment-1193955
Rossmore
Prescient words from Keating. Priceless!
Global warming and Cossie on LL.
Tell me, which ‘side’ would you prefer: Labor or the Coalition?
I’ve been trying to get on here for several days, and you wouldn’t believe it – Crikey sent me a reminder that I’ll be unfinancial in 2 weeks!!!!!
Oh, and this crap about Costello is hilarious, Abbott and Hockey should have gone into the playpen after today’s SSO – talk about silly dummy-spits!
I don’t care if we have to wade through a swamp rancid butter to get to PB, it is worth the trip. PB is still the most outstanding political blog in Australia. The IT problems are not Bilbo’s fault.
Unfortunately, PB’s strength, the engagement of commenters, only counts for 10% of the score. The competition is by the Writers’ Centre after all, and what great words can Bilbo write about the MOE for a phone-poll of bricklayers in Calathumpia?
But stuff it, we all deserve to be in the running; Bilbo and all the relatively happy campers of PB, even if we sometimes whinge that someone is wearing their smelly socks in the tent and others really think we should have camped on the next hill.
jen
A few more steps towards full unhingement.
[Horsey. As I said last night Carr is actually Hilarious Clinton.]
poroti, i see that you are still stretching your goodwill capital with Horsey
GG – I hope you are joking about Chris Berg from IPA being appointed editor of The Drum, Clearly The ABC has lost credibility as a reputable balanced source of information
bemused you are freaking me right out today . Instant dislike to Cossie at uni is one thing, admirable of course and consistent with reaction from a dear friend of mine in same time and place, but “Install cccp” !! Wow. Hadnt picked you as an advocate of Leninism.
(The blue light indicates that a joke is intended)
“Apparently Chris Berg from the IPA has now been made editor of The Drum replacing Jonathan Green.”
And I hear Peter Costello is co-hosting 7.30 with Ulhmann to add some balance.
HaveAchat @ 2200
No problems. I can’t remember, but I probably gave you a bit of biffo in reply. If I did, I apologise to you. In fact I can’t remember what you said so there you go. Must have been real important stuff. 😛
[More embarrassing BH was his comment about Gonski.]
Castle – I heard today that Gonski did tell Penny Wong and supposedly the PM that the FF Board wanted Costello but I didn’t hear mention of Gonski himself saying that Costello would be an adequate choice. In my mean little mind he probably told them privately that Costello just wasn’t up to the job.
If ever we wanted further proof we need look no further than the 7.5 interview. No respectable banker/economist would have carried on like a sookie chook.
[Crikey sent me a reminder that I’ll be unfinancial in 2 weeks!!!!!]
Similar and equally unimpressed.
The Finnigans
[Horsey. As I said last night Carr is actually Hilarious Clinton.
poroti, i see that you are still stretching your goodwill capital with Horsey]
Wells I was a bit nervous about mentioning Hilarbilly in light of the Leg End Dary PB discussion about the relative merits of Obamarama vs Hilarbilly 🙂
[The IT problems are not Bilbo’s fault. …. But stuff it, we all deserve to be in the running; Bilbo and all the relatively happy campers of PB, ]
Puuufffyyyyyyyyyy, it will be an even more happy campers if Bilbo unilaterally declares his independence from the croaky creaky crikey.
It is his choice and therefore his fault
finns
leave bilbo alone!!!
[I don’t care if we have to wade through a swamp rancid butter to get to PB, it is worth the trip. PB is still the most outstanding political blog in Australia. The IT problems are not Bilbo’s fault.]
3 Cheers, Puffy – well said.
Gussie, only thinking of the welfare of Bilbo. His reputation has been dragged down by the creaky croaky crikey
Th eFinnidans
[Bilbo unilaterally declares his independence]
Ya mean like this bloke ? 😆
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHBxKzS5G_E
TOT
watched the politico web thingy about ala and miss
great viewing, compelling stuff
good natured banterr, but some real cut and thrust
showed up our dishlickers for what they are
dishlickers
sohar
co-hosting? You mean, once again, he’s not The Leader?
Poroti, free Zimbabwe
Finns – give it a rest, please. Perhaps afv is corrupting you guys over there and turning you into right old whingers.
I’m happy to get the newsletter for my sub and the rest of Crikey chucked in as a bonus.
BH, Twitter is the King, the rest are pretenders
Fiiinnnnyyyyyyyyy,
I doubt Bilbo can unilaterally cut the Crikey umbilical cord. I don’t think choice comes into it. He can lean on Crikey but that is about all.
Since when have we progressives ever had it easy anyway? It is not like a Gina or a Clive is going to put their hands in their pockets to ease the way for an independent site and we wouldn’t want it.
I am quite sanguine about it all, frustrating yes but I am not blowing a scale off a wing over it.
About to give up!
Go back 2-3 pages and can’t get back to current page.
Then, server error.
Still a little bit of something, is better than a lot of nothing.
Have fun guys and gals and hope to goodness this steam driven site can sort itself out!
Appoint Gough chair of Medibank, he set it up.
Appoint Howard chair of the Alice to Adelaide rail link he built it.
Appoint Keating head of Superannuation he set it up.
Appoint Hawke head of medicare he set it up.
Appoint Fraser head of new parliament house, he built it.
Appoint Beasley head of the submarine fleet, he bought them.
[Since when have we progressives ever had it easy anyway?]
Puuffyyyyyyyyyyy, since we stormed the Bastille
Growler,
Come on, you are joking, right? This has to be one of your leg-pulls, surely?
Appoint Abbott head of a hospital without doctors, he planned for it
Puffy,
Watch……….
Peter Costello said HE paid off Australia’s debt – where did he get the moneys from. We need to refer him to ICAC
“Costello was a policy bum of the first order who squandered 11 years of economic opportunity.” P. Keating, 2009 bit.ly/x22Uyq
Bemused,
You got within squashing distance of Cossie and held back? I don’t know if I am more disappointed at the lost opportunity or in awe of your self-restraint.
finns
he almost cried when he said it was his money
🙂
Best description of Costello ever written:
[Art thou afeard
To be the same in thine own act and valour
As thou art in desire? Wouldst thou have that
Which thou esteem’st the ornament of life,
And live a coward in thine own esteem,
Letting ‘I dare not’ wait upon ‘I would,’
Like the poor cat i’ the adage?]
Macbeth I vii
Growler,
Jeebuz, Maria and Josephicus, who the fuack arranged that act of complete bastardry? I have never heard of a more clear case of “Come the revolution…”
Bemused – I loved the piccies of Costello all bandaged up in a hospital bed (or similar).
Were you one of the norty ones who gave him a whack?