The latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 on two-party preferred, but this obscures a lot of movement on the primary vote: Labor down four after a curious aberration a fortnight ago to 31 per cent, the Coalition down two to 43 per cent (its lowest result in almost exactly a year), the Greens up one to 12 per cent and “others” on 14 per cent (“last that high in September 2006”, GhostWhoVotes advises). Julia Gillard has recovered a preferred prime minister lead she lost two surveys ago, now leading 39-37 after trailing 38-36 a fortnight ago, but this is very much a case of the lesser of two evils: she has recovered only two points from the slump on her approval rating in the previous poll, to now be at 28 per cent, with her disapproval also down two to 62 per cent. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32 per cent and up one to a new high of 58 per cent. The incurably spin-happy Australian is selling this as “Wayne Swan’s attacks on the nation’s billionaire mining magnates (having) failed to lift Labor’s electoral support”, despite the figures offering no basis of any kind for making such a claim.
Meanwhile, Essential Research advises: “Because of public holiday in Melbourne our data processing people weren’t working today so report will go out tomorrow. And it will be worth the wait.”
UPDATE: Essential Research continues to part company with the phone pollsters, with its Coalition lead out from 56-44 to 57-43. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 31 per cent, and has dropped three points over the past four weeks, with the Coalition steady on 49 per cent (up two on four weeks ago) and the Greens steady on 10 per cent. As in Newspoll, the monthly measure of personal ratings has Julia Gillard taking a hit in the wake of the leadership spill, her approval down four points to 32 per cent and her disapproval up eight to 61 per cent. Tony Abbott’s figures are little changed at 36 per cent (up one) and 52 per cent (down one), and he has narrowed his deficit as preferred prime minister from 41-34 to 40-37. Approval of Bob Carr’s appointment to the Senate and foreign ministry is evenly divided at 37 per cent approval and 36 per cent approval, with strong disapproval (17 per cent) heavily outweighing strong approval (7 per cent) (which to my mind doesn’t reflect too well on the insight of the punters).
Other questions included an amusing experimental effort in which half the respondents were asked if they agreed with Wayne Swan that “Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests”, and the other half if they agreed with the statement without it being attributed to Wayne Swan. The results were extremely similar – 58 per cent agreed and 26 per cent disagreed when it was attributed to Wayne Swan, compared with 60 per cent and 24 per cent when it wasn’t – but it became so because strong partisan effects cancelled each other out, with Coalition voters especially far more inclined to reject the assertion (36 per cent agree, 51 per cent disagree) coming from Swan than when it was unattributed (55 per cent agree, 30 per cent agree). The poll also finds a decline in support for the mining tax since the question was last asked in February, with support down three points to 52 per cent and opposition up six to 34 per cent. Respondents were also asked to identify what constituted “middle income” ($60,000-$79,000 getting the highest response for individuals), “well off” and “wealthy” (with responses here very widely spread). Eighty-six per cent believed social class still existed in Australia against only 8 per cent who didn’t.
Where is Dennis, why is Matty doing his Newspoll gig? Not fair – I love my Tuesday comedy from Dennis, Matty is nowhere near as funny. 😆
For the US southern states there is no hope. Surely!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/12/1073548/-Alabama-and-Mississippi-Republicans-don-t-believe-in-evolution-but-do-believe-Obama-is-a-Muslim?via=blog_1
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101715858
Good morning, Bludgers.
Start the day with another top award for a break-through genetic/medical discovery by an Australian: Making something of junk earns geneticist top award
[WHEN Sydney geneticist John Mattick suggested junk DNA was anything but rubbish he was challenging an assumption that had underpinned genetics for 50 years …
And tomorrow he will become the first Australian honoured with the Chen Award for distinguished academic achievement in human genetic and genomic research, awarded by the Human Genome Organisation…
In humans, more than 95 per cent of the genome contains billions of letters that do not make proteins, called non-coding DNA. ”When people bumped into all this DNA that didn’t make proteins they thought it must be junk,” he said. But Professor Mattick felt it was unlikely that useless material would survive hundreds of millions of years of evolution.
He found that the non-protein-coding sections of DNA had a function, to produce RNA …
Many scientists now believe this RNA is the basis of the brain’s plasticity and learning, and may hold the secret to understanding many complex diseases.]
If only he were a sportsperson! Then he’d get a commemorative stamp to go with his medal.
Morning
OPT
What a fabulous achievement by John Mattick
ru
Can you link Barnaby’s email here
The clear air is not yet here after the #Ruddstoration dust storm. But seeing thru the haze it is looking better
vic
Multi-Millionaire Joyce, how lower class.
[The clear air is not yet here after the #Ruddstoration dust storm. But seeing thru the haze it is looking better]
Libs primary vote now lower that the 2010 election in Newspoll. How can Tony win?
Thanks ru
The letter is a frickin joke!
I missed qanda last night, but feedback suggests that MT is getting more confident. I say MT bring it on. The coalition will be a rabble!!!
Fatty Franklin reckons it is Wayne Swan turning off the voters. For goodness sake, Clive Palmer and Gina Reinhart re becoming caricatures. Do these journos have a grip on reality?!!
fake Dennis. Very funny
[ Denis Shanahan
@DenisShanahan1
@Barnaby_Joyce My grandchild won’t clean his teeth of a night. Will trade airfare to an Indian wedding if you’ll drop him a line. Deal?]
Vic, i just love this spin. how obviousment, why didnt we see it.
Fatt Manklin: WAYNE Swan appears to be turning off voters by attacking billionaire mining magnates.
The oracle has spoken
[Michelle Grattan
@michellegrattan
Watching #qanda would have sent Tony’s blood pressure up.]
[Fatty Franklin reckons it is Wayne Swan turning off the voters. For goodness sake, Clive Palmer and Gina Reinhart re becoming caricatures. Do these journos have a grip on reality?!!]
Franklin and Shanahan will say anything at all to satisfy their master. They know no shame.
Labor knows that it is on a winner by speaking about the three fat cat miners. This will continue right up to the election. The LNP had better come up with a better defence than ‘politics of envy.’
The Finns
What is even more funny is that we have Fatty interpreting this latest newspoll and not shamas. But it is the same shit, different smell!!!!
Re Newspoll results: odd primary pattern (probably down to Ruddstoration); stable 2PP, pretty much across all OpPolls (probably won’t move much until after 1 July, if then); Gillard’s PPM rising above Abbott’s, Abbott’s sinking.
When will Turnbull/other Lib challenge? If s/he has any nous, not before there’s considerable evidence that voters are so over Abbott, and certainly not before December’s Kill Zone.
We should remember that the L-NP half who didn’t support Abbott are pro-Carbon Pricing/ ETS (& aware of the cost of not joining international carbon trading schemes), quietly in favour of the NBN (which most advantages their traditional farm/ business core constituencies) &, just as Howard continued Hawke-Keating’s rent/tax on mining for the wealth it brought the Commonwealth, will continue Rudd-Gillard’s for the same reasons. In addition, they’ll dump Abbott’s anti-business parental leave scheme. They may even go for the Malaysia Solution to AS.
No way sane Opposition members should try to dump Abbott before voters do.
When/ if the dumping occurs, the government will have to rethink the differential between the 2 major parties’ policies.
TH
The saga with Ms Gina, and the fact that Mr Barnaby wrote a letter to her daughter back in September. Contents of which are at post 57, makes what Fatty says totally laughable
OPT
Dumping Abbott for Turnbull anytime soon, will cause a major rupture in the coalition
And the white-anting campaign against Stephen Smith commences:
[SAS 4 Squadron is based at Swan Island, near Queenscliff, a high-security defence facility that has doubled in size over the past decade, in part to accommodate the new squadron.
The squadron was formally raised in 2005 by the Howard government, but The Age has learnt that its new intelligence-focused role was authorised in late 2010 or early last year by Mr Smith.]
It’s got everything: intrigue, Kevin Rudd, beautiful but lethal SAS lasses, black ops, fake passports, eyebrow furrowing by “worried” top brass… it’s all there, including the regulation negative comment from Hugh White.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/secret-sas-squadron-sent-to-spy-in-africa-20120312-1uwjs.html#ixzz1owGtwbo4
Post by Mod Lib last night suggested that if MT became leader of the coalition, the Libs would not need the Nats to form govt at next election
The Press pack will not last a month without leadership speculation, it has been two weeks so, I guess, its Tony’s turn soon.
Will , do u know, lll , you mentio ed the other day, connect with fami ily re pb down
Sound s like he is taking your good advice,
A.M. interview had Barns unclear whether he had ever taken funds from Gina without the interviewer asking the obvious question about his free trip to India in the private jet. He was going back to his office to check if she had ever slipped him a quid.
rua
They can play with Can-do and Bligh for a couple more weeks, then they’ll have nothing to do except suck their thumbs. That’s the time for a new “crisis”.
ruawake
Yes the speculation will revolve around MT, but what about Scoot, JBishop, JHockey, CPyne or ARobb? Surely the speculation by the journos can go all year!!!!
Nice solid Newspoll for Labor really. I wouldn’t worry too much about the primary number. It looks genuinely undercooked compared to the other polsters by 3 or 4 points. All the evidence so far is indicating that seeing off Ruddstoration has had no negative effect. Essential today being the only poll to show a slippage for Labor over the shenanigans will be interesting to see if it confirms or negates the ‘no loss’ theory.
Early days but it looks to me that 53-47 is the new 54-46 and that Possum’s ‘no movement for 3 months was actually just very very slow narrowing. That is perfect for Labor (we don’t want Abbott going anywhere thanks very much). There will obviously be the usual swings and roundabouts between now and election day, but I suspect Gillard is out of that stupidly termed ‘killing zone’ and talk of inevitable Abbott wins will slowly give way to the contest – and the contest doesn’t suit Abbott at all.
Morning All
Should be an interesting couple of weeks in parliament, especially the senate. I expect the Greens to cause some pain over ensuring the small business tax breaks that go with the MRRT are included in some way but can’t see them holding the bill up in the end
Another interesting development yesterday was the reworking of the Herald Sun web site – looks like they are getting ready to go with a premium / standard spilt of content – I really think Murdoch is kidding himself if he thinks that can work with so many alternatives out there – either now or coming very soon 🙂
Note – a lot of the content, especially sport, looks to be going to the premium side
oops almost forgot – 53-47 at this stage of the cycle is a pretty solid place to be, Labor really needs to get that primary vote back up though
A quick message Some of the Poll Bludgers may remember I mentioned my friend who was on the liver transplant program, he is in surgery at the moment Oz medical is wonderful, a private jet took him down, at midnight last night the operation started at 4am so please everyone give a thought, operation will take about 10 to 12 hours. I am going for a walk to calm down
mari
Sending you all my positive vibes. 🙂
[Another interesting development yesterday was the reworking of the Herald Sun web site – looks like they are getting ready to go with a premium / standard spilt of content ]
Paywall up from next week.
Tony Windsor goes where the media dares not tread.
[“The only thing that I can see is that the lady in question happens to be the wealthiest woman in Australia, and obviously there must be some sort of tie-up between these people in the Liberal Party and the National Party or whoever, as to their involvement.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-13/joyce-questioned-over-rinehart-intervention/3884972
I am not a polling expert and acknowledge that the ALP primary is a concern but my reading of the Newspoll tables below is that the LNP vote is now below their 2010 election level. Hardly seems to be a ringing endorsement of Abbott and his team.
http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/newspoll-120313.pdf
ruawake
[Another interesting development yesterday was the reworking of the Herald Sun web site – looks like they are getting ready to go with a premium / standard spilt of content
Paywall up from next week.]
Paywall is up now. The traditional google method to hop over it works .
Turnball would be lucky to get more than a handful of votes in a potential challenge to Abbott’s leadership.
Far better idea would be for Turnball, Rudd and some other disaffected Labor & Liberal MPs to set up a new 3rd political party. 🙂
Barnaby Joyces letter to Rineharts daughter was bad enough but check out Albly Shultz’a
[Dear Hope.
We read with so much sadness of the litigation that you have instigated against your mother. Whilst we do not know all the problems that give rise to this horrific step, because we love and care about you we felt we had to share our experience with you. It is already making you look like a member of the Rose Porteous family, not your mother’s wonderful and beautiful daughter,” Mr Schultz wrote on September 19.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/my-kids-are-not-up-to-it-gina-rinehart/story-fn59niix-1226297616472
Word has it that ructions inside The Australian have led to tensions between two journalists there: one very senior and the other bucking for his job.
Apparently there have been “heated” telephone conversations. I wish I could tell youse my source, but confidentiality rules supreme.
Let us just say that the senior of the two journalists has become somewhat of a laughing stock around the office. One of the jokes going around is that he has developed a sore neck from continually looking around to see who’s behind him.
Alby, Alby, where’s the bucket?
Any mention anywhere of Barnaby’s trip to India on the Rinehart private jet and it not showing up in his parliamentary list of financial interests?
BB
For real?
After CT, MRRT, Juliar, #Ruddstoration etc etc, the Oppn PV is lower now than at 2010 election. Great work @TonyAbbottMHR keep it up
poroti
So Barnaby writes a lettet to daughter Hope on the 11th Sep and Alby writes one to her on the 19th Sep. We are meant to believe ths is an innocent exchange!!
[Any mention anywhere of Barnaby’s trip to India on the Rinehart private jet and it not showing up in his parliamentary list of financial interests?]
Totally avoided in their ABC interview as you would expect.
What kind of idiot would write that Australia needs the Reinhart family to remain just the way it is? For two Coalition politicians to entreat people they hadn’t even met to keep schtumm is fawning to the point of embarrassment.
Most of us hadn’t even heard of Gina’s kids, and I’d warrant couldn’t have cared less about whether they existed or not.
Wayne Swan’s criticism of the way these billionaires operate gains in relevance by the day.
[victoria
Posted Tuesday, March 13, 2012 at 8:32 am | Permalink
mari
Sending you all my positive vibes.]
Thank you so much a long wait now, my walking friend and I have been for our walk and I am feeling positive. One good thing living in a village people we met and I told them are all sending their good vibes, he will be right. I only hope the donor and family will get many many brownie points, evidently heart etc are all being used. My friend is just trying not to think about the donor
mari
As often happens in these situations, one person’s gain is someone else’s loss. No matter what though, organ donation is the most wonderful gift
http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/13150656/liberal-mps-accused-of-nsw-fundraising-hypocrisy/
Tucked away on a back page of Yahoo 7
[victoria
Posted Tuesday, March 13, 2012 at 9:04 am | Permalink
mari
As often happens in these situations, one person’s gain is someone else’s loss. No matter what though, organ donation is the most wonderful gift]
Thank you once again Victoria that is more or less what I said to my friend, when she rang me to tell me he was in surgery
Hope was obviously perceived to be the weakest link.
What a hide for Joyce and Shultz to put thir names such emotionally charged personal letters to a person they patently don’t know.
Interesting that the letters have the same thematic sequence – expression of sorrow, praise for Gina, concern about destruction of family, personal anecdote and implied threat about consequences.
If these letters weren’t part of an orchestrated approach, I’d be very surprised.
I wouldn’t be suprised if more surface, ostensibly from other intellectually enfeebled coalition sock puppets.
FS
This really does stink to high heavenz