The latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 on two-party preferred, but this obscures a lot of movement on the primary vote: Labor down four after a curious aberration a fortnight ago to 31 per cent, the Coalition down two to 43 per cent (its lowest result in almost exactly a year), the Greens up one to 12 per cent and “others” on 14 per cent (“last that high in September 2006”, GhostWhoVotes advises). Julia Gillard has recovered a preferred prime minister lead she lost two surveys ago, now leading 39-37 after trailing 38-36 a fortnight ago, but this is very much a case of the lesser of two evils: she has recovered only two points from the slump on her approval rating in the previous poll, to now be at 28 per cent, with her disapproval also down two to 62 per cent. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32 per cent and up one to a new high of 58 per cent. The incurably spin-happy Australian is selling this as “Wayne Swan’s attacks on the nation’s billionaire mining magnates (having) failed to lift Labor’s electoral support”, despite the figures offering no basis of any kind for making such a claim.
Meanwhile, Essential Research advises: “Because of public holiday in Melbourne our data processing people weren’t working today so report will go out tomorrow. And it will be worth the wait.”
UPDATE: Essential Research continues to part company with the phone pollsters, with its Coalition lead out from 56-44 to 57-43. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 31 per cent, and has dropped three points over the past four weeks, with the Coalition steady on 49 per cent (up two on four weeks ago) and the Greens steady on 10 per cent. As in Newspoll, the monthly measure of personal ratings has Julia Gillard taking a hit in the wake of the leadership spill, her approval down four points to 32 per cent and her disapproval up eight to 61 per cent. Tony Abbott’s figures are little changed at 36 per cent (up one) and 52 per cent (down one), and he has narrowed his deficit as preferred prime minister from 41-34 to 40-37. Approval of Bob Carr’s appointment to the Senate and foreign ministry is evenly divided at 37 per cent approval and 36 per cent approval, with strong disapproval (17 per cent) heavily outweighing strong approval (7 per cent) (which to my mind doesn’t reflect too well on the insight of the punters).
Other questions included an amusing experimental effort in which half the respondents were asked if they agreed with Wayne Swan that “Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests”, and the other half if they agreed with the statement without it being attributed to Wayne Swan. The results were extremely similar – 58 per cent agreed and 26 per cent disagreed when it was attributed to Wayne Swan, compared with 60 per cent and 24 per cent when it wasn’t – but it became so because strong partisan effects cancelled each other out, with Coalition voters especially far more inclined to reject the assertion (36 per cent agree, 51 per cent disagree) coming from Swan than when it was unattributed (55 per cent agree, 30 per cent agree). The poll also finds a decline in support for the mining tax since the question was last asked in February, with support down three points to 52 per cent and opposition up six to 34 per cent. Respondents were also asked to identify what constituted “middle income” ($60,000-$79,000 getting the highest response for individuals), “well off” and “wealthy” (with responses here very widely spread). Eighty-six per cent believed social class still existed in Australia against only 8 per cent who didn’t.
[Another interesting development yesterday was the reworking of the Herald Sun web site – looks like they are getting ready to go with a premium / standard spilt of content
Paywall up from next week.]
The fundamental error that was made, not only by Murdoch but the other newspaper proprietors as well, was to not put up a paywall on their online newspapers from day 1. Everybody that bought hardcopy newspapers from their local newsagent up to that time expected to pay and paid for their newspapers. In my opinion, people would, by extension, have paid for the online version if they had charged for it then. The newspaper owners and managers did not anticipate what the impact of the internet would have on the delivery of news and opinion. Now it is too late.
[Stephen Spencer @sspencer_63 Close
Truly, the most impressive feat of Australian newspapers is their ability to deduce why a poll moved, when even those polled were not asked.
9:24 AM – 13 Mar 12]
I linked to this story last week. Here is The Young Turks’ take on it.
It says so, so much about the creeping malaise of the US.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101715841
[And the white-anting campaign against Stephen Smith commences]
Interesting to compare this to the way the military undermines USA’s Democratic Presidents, while treating its own wounded, disabled and PTSD veterans like garbage.
What we’ve seen from Abu Ghraib onwards has been a combination of utter disdain for the rights of the US Military’s victims of an illegal war and leniency (& pathetic excuses) for those who have committed war crimes. So what chance the soldier who went berserk in Afghanistan gets the full military punishment for his rampage, not a web of PTSD etc excuses: far less than Buckley’s?
All nations/ states which succumb to demands for keeping “standing” defence forces in peace time have had to deal with their lust for power, control and fighting – and that’s been recognised since Ancient Times. The Roman Republic insisted on a strong militia, but refused to allow them to carry arms inside Rome – unless awarded the distinction of a Triumph (what we now call Freedom of the City). It took less than 2 decades after Gaius Marius created the first professional army (107BC) for the First Civil War to erupt (88/87); just under another 3 decades for 59BC’s First Triumvirate (Caesar, Crassus, Pompey) to herald the Republic’s end, and a further 3 decades for Octavian Augustus to become emperor – three generations of standing armies to destroy the Republic to create the Empire.
Rome was always the Grim Warning of threats posed by standing professional armies who consider themselves above Constitutions and Law Codes. England relied on its well-trained militia until C 19th, when Imperial invasions and subjugation of non-white, non-English Speaking countries demanded huge armies. A (probably The) Primary Cause of WW I is still regarded as two armed camps created by treaties and huge militarisation, and UK v Germany’s building-battleships Cold War.
C20 proved the Roman Republic’s dictum that standing armies mean war, including civil war; its fall, that standing armies consider themselves above governments and laws.
Minister Smith insists the ADF is NOT above the government and the laws.
IMO, he’d be better to bin the professional ADF and revert to pre-WW II’s militia, with a small core of specialists chosen for their leadership, strategic & tactical abilities, and ability to command sensibly. Australian military’s outstanding performances in WW I & WW II were, to a great extent, the result of the bulk of its soldiers, sailors, airmen & women’s civilian experience, and ability to think and act outside narrow military training, and its officers’ sensible attitude to command – famously towards excessive saluting & correct uniforms at all times.
Who knew?
[The SAS is at the forefront of gender change in the Australian military, with six female soldiers being trained in the US for their work with 4 Squadron.]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/secret-sas-teams-hunt-for-terrorists-20120312-1uwhy.html#ixzz1owZdxXXo
“Gender change” in the Australian Army? Serving Queen and country is clearly not without, shall we say, “certain sacrifices”.
But seriously, with Austraalian journos in the Horn Of Africa being “arrested” as “spies”, can articles like this do any good to Aussies in Africa and the nation in general at all?
FS @ 99
[ What a hide for Joyce and Shultz to put thir names such emotionally charged personal letters to a person they patently don’t know. ]
Can you imagine the media uproar if a high-profile ALP politician did this. Also it was outrageous that the ABC AM interview with Joyce this morning didn’t mention the free India trip even though Joyce had the gall to say wtte ‘I have got nothing from Gina’
Good article but behind paywall
http://www.afr.com/p/national/labor_to_offer_small_business_big_05Ik1MkKCMoaq018g3xK4N
[Labor to offer small business big benefits
PUBLISHED: 8 HOURS 36 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 6 HOURS 5 MINUTES AGO
New measures to assist small business are expected to be a major feature of the federal budget as Labor seeks to reposition itself as the friend of start-up businesses up against big corporate power.]
A brief article giving an update on the situation
http://www.news.com.au/business/your-business/government-wont-commit-to-business-tax-cut/story-fn9evb64-1226297835178
[Government won’t commit to business tax cut
AAP
March 13, 2012
9:08AM
THE Federal Government is refusing to commit itself to a promised tax cut for small business by July 1.
The cut is funded by revenue from the planned minerals resource rent tax which is expected to clear Parliament before the end of next week.
But legislation for a 1 per cent cut in the company tax rate for small business has yet to be considered by parliament.
Finance Minister Penny Wong won’t say whether the tax cut will be legislated in time for the promised start date of July 1.
The Government would “obviously bring forward” the legislation, she told ABC Radio today.
But she would not the commit the Government to the promised start date.
“We want to give small a business tax cut,” Senator Wong said.
“But we first want to get the minerals tax through.]
more in the article
[Far better idea would be for Turnball, Rudd and some other disaffected Labor & Liberal MPs to set up a new 3rd political party.]
You could call it the Democrats.
O wait …..
Finnigans: Why didn’t Labor’s primary vote go up? It was that evil Kevin Rudd dragging it down previously, correct? 🙂
So the most likely movement of primary vote was the Rudd factor. A 3rd party with Rudd, Turnbull and a few defectors would really make politics interesting.
This actually is important
http://www.afr.com/p/national/erosion_of_trust_rineharts_fight_oraPxqeWr180TB3z40dSiL
[RESOURCESDAILY
Erosion of trust: Rineharts fight over Hope Downs
PUBLISHED: 8 HOURS 48 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 1 HOUR 23 MINUTES AGO
PETER KERR, HANNAH LOW AND ANGUS GRIGG
The bitter legal battle between Australia’s richest person, Gina Rinehart, and her three eldest children threatens to revive a decades-old dispute over the ownership of the giant Hope Downs iron ore mine in Western Australia.
The mine, which Mrs Rinehart jointly controls with Rio Tinto, is the major source of her estimated $17 billion fortune.]
more in the article
Do they even like each other Rudd and Turnbull?
[So the most likely movement of primary vote was the Rudd factor.]
You need more than one poll to determine that.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/13149071/budget-takes-hit-for-400m-bill/
We should never have signed up to this, it’s too much (if true of course, wait & see).
[Budget takes hit for $400m bill
EXCLUSIVE Andrew Probyn and Shane Wright Canberra, The West Australian
Updated March 13, 2012, 2:50 am
Treasurer Wayne Swan is being forced to cut deeper into welfare and defence programs after the Treasury booked a near half-a-billion dollar price tag to host a forthcoming meeting of the 20 most powerful world leaders.
The West Australian can reveal the Treasurer’s department is expecting the G20 meeting in 2014 to cost taxpayers at least $400 million. Half of that will be spent on a security cloak over the host city, which is yet to be decided.]
more in the article
[So the most likely movement of primary vote was the Rudd factor.]
It was indeed. With Kevin out of the picture, the Coalition’s vote dropped 2 points…
Leroy
Ms Gina extended the vesting date to 2068. Her eldest child would be 92, if he were still to be living.
Interesting to know where Labor’s missing 5% primary is.
If the coalition are now scoring below their actual FPV in the last election, and this is at its lowest level for some 12 months, it would seem to suggest that Labor is not likely to be able to rob the conservatives of many more votes – they being down to somewhere near their bedrock tory level.
I would suppose that somewhere in the Green vote and the Other is the missing 5% primary that Labor really does need.
However, as these are votes which can shift, they are more accessible.
All in all, given the civil war Labor had not so very long ago, the fact that Labor is still generally within striking distance, JG is now ahead of Abbott as PPM – though neither of them are getting lots of cheers, and that the coalition vote has fallen to below its vote in 2010, is not too bad for Labor at all – at this point in time.
The best thing for Labor is for Abbott remain as LOTO. Long may he do so.
I don’t think Abbott is in any danger yet (though would be happy to be proved wrong) but unless things pick up for him as we get to the end of 2012 then there might be the feeling among the conservatives that Julia might just sneak back. If this view takes hold, then it might be on.
However, if I were a conservative, I would find it hard at the moment to find reasons to get rid of him. Then, who can understand the conservative mind anyway?
Scarpat
Touche!!
“Do they even like each other Rudd and Turnbull?” – Well Turnbull tried to bring down Rudd with a fake email which was straight out of the Republican playbook. Turnbull is as sleezy as anyone in parliament – can’t see why Rudd would have anything to do with him.
Doogie on the doors in form; bringing up Joyce’s and J.Bishop’s trip to India with Rinehart. WTTE what do you suppose they talked about on the way over in the plush confines of the private jet.
OPT @ 104
Australia is negotiating a status of forces agreement with the US as we write.
[Turnbull is as sleezy as anyone in parliament – can’t see why Rudd would have anything to do with him.]
The enemy of my enemy is my friend…
TLM
[Why didn’t Labor’s primary vote go up? It was that evil Kevin Rudd dragging it down previously, correct?]
It would be a surprise for it to go up so soon after such a brawl. However, the 2PP didn’t go down, which kills stone dead the theory that the improved result last time was caused by a Rudd-might-be-returning factor during the leadership fight.
It is interesting that the calls for a third party tend to based around two themes:
(1) we are sick of the same old, same old.
(2) the names of some personalities who would be the leaders of the new third parties.
I contrast this with a visionary statement about the future, with means tucked in afterwards.
Siren and first bounce 12:30 in the Senate, 14:00 in the Reps.
PHI in the Senate today, MRRT tomorrow
http://aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Chamber_documents/Senate_chamber_documents/This_week_at_a_glance
The Rinehart saga is a powerful argument against inherited wealth and for estate duties.
Tricot
You should probably ask O’ Shannasee where the missing 5% is.
I suggest Essential will give some indication of where it went.
On second thoughts, Rudd is also sleezy. Perhaps the new Turnbull-Rudd Party could be called the “Sleeze to Please Party”. Just who they’d be pleasing is anyone’s guess.
Good points Tricot
The Essential poll normally comes out with a tally of ALP/LNP in the low 80s% which was also the case at the last election. Newspoll last night reported a tally of 74%.
It will be interesting to see what the tally is today and what explanations may be made for any differences Newspoll to Essential.
[WHEN Sydney geneticist John Mattick suggested junk DNA was anything but rubbish he was challenging an assumption that had underpinned genetics for 50 years …]
This story should be trotted out constantly when climate change denialists try to argue that all the scientists are in cahoots and the will not brook anyone challenging scientific orthodoxy once it is well established.
What this story proves is that any challenge to established opinion WILL be taken seriously – and even lauded – if you have a good argument and can provide some sort of proof.
Someone needs to ram home the point to the denialists that if they want to disprove the orthodoxy around climate change theory then they will need to come up with some proof … not to mention reputable scientists without vested interests in the resources sector or right-wing think tanks who are willing to put their name to it …
Stephen Smith with WW on ABC95.
Good morning all.
[The incurably spin-happy Australian is selling this as “Wayne Swan’s attacks on the nation’s billionaire mining magnates (having) failed to lift Labor’s electoral support”, despite the figures offering no basis of any kind for making such a claim.]
I was absolutely astounded to see the OO pushing that line last night. It’s such a rubbish publication.
Caption of the Day
The Age online front page http://www.theage.com.au/
[Alarming study of 120,000 people shows eating just one portion {of meat} per day increases risk of death by up to 20%]
Poor silly me. Here am I thinking my risk of death was 100%. I must have been reading Bad Science.
Bob Carr is apparently being sworn in as FM this afternoon.
Lyndal fishing for details about the SAS. Smith not biting.
I have noticed before with NewsPoll that when Labor gets a boost in support they show it as coming from the Greens, even if no other poll shows a surge in Green votes. This time it is a boost to Others? I don’t trust Newspoll on primary figures.
Essential 57 LNP: ALP 43
http://essentialvision.com.au/essential-research
OK
Let’s actually try to dissect the newspoll.
1. Labor PV has returned back to to the average 31% which operated November to early February. There was a Rudd/going to sort it out bounce in late Feb but now returned to form. Hope not TOO many marginal seat MPs made a judgement call based on Newspoll in February. If they did they are clearly stupid and will not be too much of a loss to the intellectual cred of the caucus.
2. The Greens PV has picked up slightly but is still fairly static. Seem to be getting back to their 2010 election levels. Did not pick up much of the 4% Rudd/spill bounce, which is surprising
3. The coalition is on a fairly worrying steady decline. This really IS a trend. Slow but steady decline in support.
4. The OTHERS have gained. The issue for ALP strategists is who are these people and will they return to Labor and will they preference Labor. Fairly obviously 4% of the others is the Rudd factor. Sorry guys but it is pretty bleeding obvious. 4% moved from Labor to others. Please do not have conniptions. Obviously this will need to be confirmed by other polls but it is the blindingly obvious interpretation.
So will these “others” go Liberal, Green/Labor, Katter/ Labor or informal. Friends theis is the ALP target group. Without them victory is a figment of the imagination and an electoral abyss looms.
PS the location of this swing in critical. There are three very vulnerable seats to Greens – Grayndler, Sydney and in my opinion Melbourne Ports. Michael Danby in particular must be needing to buy Poise.
Essential PV has ALP on 31 as well.
Interesting!
shellbell:
56 – 44. No change.
Like all good polls, this one seems to have plenty of mystery attached.
Personally, I’m quite surprised that Labor did not take a TPP hit following the recent Leadership Resolution discussions. One of the cliches of political analysis is that disunity is death. Maybe it can be relaunched as disunity is embarrassing but not harmful.
I’d suggest the Labor Primary decline seems to have been in favour to the Indies. This may indicate a last gasp waving of fists by the hard core Ruddistas. They don’t like Gillard but will not countenance the Libs. Hopefully, when they’ve licked their wounds and buried their champion they’ll accept and embrace the PM.
The improvement of the PM’s personal ratings are to be expected. Triumph over the the usurper is always a good way to improve one’s leadership credentials. It’s interesting that Abbott’s ratings continue to decline. Without the cover of Parliament Abbott seems to have been drowned out of the big picture of political coverage in the last two weeks.
As always we’ll have to see the next poll to see whether the disturbances of recent weeks smooth themselves out or we have reached some new level in our political cycle.
Oops, that was last week!
TLBD
Look at right side top corner of page I linked -it says 57-43 – but I never rule out a personal stuff up
Confessions
Why interesting. Surely expected. The interesting and odd polls were the spill weekend polls. Just back to status quo.
shellbell,
I worked out, eventually, where they were hiding the most recent result!
There is no way two big egos like Turnbull & Rudd could fit in the same “new party”. Who would lead?
Also, I find it odd that people who know a bit about politics are so forgetful of the fact that Turnbull is to the RIGHT of Abbott (as well as Rudd/Gillard/Labor) on Tax, Private Healthcare, Private Education and Industrial Relations.
ALP supporters should be very careful wishing for a Turnbull return. We have just seen that the ALP leadership fight has had less effect on polls than we might have thought. What makes anyone think it would disrupt the LNP ratings? It would probably just fill all the airtime the Govt needs to get it’s policies across.
Arguably even more so. I see him as no better than abbott.
Turnbull is probably more electable than abbott though – so an even greater threat to Labor.
Lets hope the Libs keep him frozen out of their leadership.
The lib leaning Newspoll has LNP at it lowest ebb for a year while the so-called ALP leaning Essential has LNP at its highest.
Um…
It was once highly unusual to see articles like this from Fairfax’s Jessica Wright on the same day that a poll from a rival newspaper came out:
[The hangover from the Labor leadership brawl has materialised in a four-point collapse in the party’s primary vote but confirmed leader Julia Gillard has overtaken Tony Abbott in the preferred prime minister stakes.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/leadership-brawl-sparks-drop-in-labor-vote-20120313-1ux2g.html#ixzz1owmdcbyG
In her rush to get out what she obviously believes to be bad news, Wright goes on to deliver a chapter and verse analysis of the Newspoll, right down to the minutae. Not a general summary, but point-by-point.
Once upon a time the official policy used to be that Newspoll did not exist. Only Nielsen was valid. Not any more.
How long will it be until Newspoll and Nielsen are taken as one, with fluctuations between the two written up as if they constituted some kind of day-by-day polling continuum?
Going over Kaferfair again.