Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,059 comments on “Gillard 71, Rudd 31”

Comments Page 5 of 82
1 … 4 5 6 … 82

  1. Bruce Hawker has been a complete failure in all this.

    His approach might be ok for an election campaign but for internal party politics no way.

    I suspect a lot of credit must be given to the Communications director for the PM for her approach of speaking direct to the party.

    Hawker / Rudd outplayed by the PM and her team with a big tick to the ex Blair man.

  2. Arbib finishes as minister next friday, as senator friday week. the 3 NSW ministers who backed Rudd may have some role in what is playing out

  3. [I like how Chris Bowen says he’s happy to serve in “any cabinet capacity”, not any ministerial capacity. I’ve heard him say it twice today.]

    Chris, be a love, and get us a cup of coffee…

  5. victoria, I saw some of the press conference. He says it’s in the interests of unity, plus family reasons, but the press gallery was a bit bemused by that. It’s not clear to me how it helps unity much, so it’s a bit of a mystery.

    Hawker backtracking. Now Gillard can win the next election.

  6. the spectator

    I haven’t read it but I’ll look out for it. Lincoln had an amazing facility to say more in five minutes than most people say in a lifetime.

    TBS

    In a few years when I’ve read more, I’m planning to do a tour of the civil war sites. They are meant to be beautiful as you say.

  8. [I suspect a lot of credit must be given to the Communications director for the PM for her approach of speaking direct to the party.]

    If she was the genius behind the Crean/Swan/Roxon campaign then she deserves only blame.

  9. What are those dumb journalists going to talk about now besides the Labor leadership?

    Hell, they can’t even accurately report the ballot result 10 min before it was officially released!

    Seriously, the main stream media have absolutely ZERO credibility, they led people to believe that Rudd had much more support than what he did!

    Forget the MSM, forget the likes of Maiden, Hartcher and many others, they have no clue!

    For the best predictions, you read it right here first. 😀 😆 😛

  10. The PB Kevenge Sweepstake clever people were and are. First prize, a sense of satisfaction 🙂
    Boerwar
    mari
    bluegreen
    henry
    sprocket
    ratsak
    centre

  13. [ Swan showed what a massive turd he is this past week. ]

    I don’t think I would like my grandkids to encounter someone like this Slackboy on the last train home from the CBD on Friday night.

  14. poroti

    disappointed I did not win – I had prepared a lengthy victory speech talking about myself in the third person a la Mr Rudd

  15. Oh, and just to remind people – Poss, William and others (including Glen) are almost certainly right – some of the “lift” from some of these polls was probably some people thinking Kevin Rudd was coming back … the ALP should expect the next set of polls to show a slump in support.

    Don’t panic.

    Keep your nerve.

    Steady as she goes.

    It doesn’t change the equation in the short term. The time for panicing is next year.

  16. [Early chat seems to be that Warren Mundine is the front-runner to fill Arbib’s Senate vacancy.]

    Interesting. I certainly think it’d be a bad idea to put in any former NSW MPs. No need to be tarred by that brush.

  17. [disappointed I did not win – I had prepared a lengthy victory speech talking about myself in the third person a la Mr Rudd]

    shellbell,

    sorry but you missed out in the Oscars as well.

  18. Team of Rivals sounds like an interesting read, does anyone know if it is sold here in our bookstores or is it best brought online from Amazon?

    I think Doris is a very good historian and her knowledge of American political is fascinating.

  19. [shellbell
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 4:10 pm | Permalink
    Tom Hawkins
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 4:09 pm | Permalink
    So who is waiting in the wings for a gig as a Labor senator? Someone of distinction hopefully. A positive high public profile would be good.

    from NSW labor – KK??]

    You might be onto something there Shell bell

  20. Any chance of KK moving to the senate, yes I know it would cause a by-election in NSW but still Kristina is being wasted on the backbench of opposition

  21. [Oh, and just to remind people – Poss, William and others (including Glen) are almost certainly right – some of the “lift” from some of these polls was probably some people thinking Kevin Rudd was coming back ]

    It is also possible that part of the result is due to Abbott and the Coalition being starved of oxygen with Labor being the only game in town.

  22. Thank you Poroti, think I am happy with a”sense of satisfaction” I had gone quite off the thought of the sausages , either fat or thin with the image that a person who shall remain nameless painted for me, turned me right off. Congratulations to my fellow tippers

  24. One wild card with the Rudd scenario that no-one has discussed recently is what might happen if he is offered a high profile job with the UN. Now that he is not FM anymore he just might take it.

  26. [I don’t think I would like my grandkids to encounter someone like this Slackboy on the last train home from the CBD on Friday night.]
    It could be worse. They could encounter Wayne Swan.

  29. [zoidlord
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

    I’m still trying to figure out why Rudd did this knowing the outcome?

    He should of shut his mouth up and waited for QLD election, If Bligh loses, he could have had the top job there. ]

    He had no choice because of the media overcooking. After the 4C ambush, which I suspect was aimed at continuing the destabilising process, the media went out of control. Grattan and Hartcher went with this “it must be settled now!” meme and the rest of the chorus joined in (well News Ltd were on similar grounds anyway).

    Crean blew the whistle on it with his charge of Kevin Rudd not being a team player. That caused a bit of a storm. Then Cheeseman declaring he wanted Rudd,and giving his name to it set the cat among the pigeons. It wasn’t supposed to be out in the open that soon.

    Rudd’s 1am announcement in Washington that he was resigning precipitated it. But Gillard and her supporters were prepared and other ministers joined in savagely.

    It had been a media campaign to date, but it had gone so far that he had to put up, or forever be branded a “gunna”. And later (July or so) the polls will be moving back upwards to when a challenge could not be made.

  31. Normally, I am not a big wrap for “gesture politics” which is bascally what Arbib has done today. However, being honest enough to see yourself as a significant problem for on going Party dissension and disunity and then doing something about it that does not involve a two finger salute to your opponents, shows a lot of insight and courage.

    With him gone, Labor embraces renewal and moves on. Hopefully the Rudd hold outs can accept this at face value and help the Party rather than recoil to unproductive bitterness.

    Appointing Warren Mundine as a merit candidate and Labor’s first indigenous Senator is a terrific bonus.

    On face value, will be a good move for the Government.

  32. [Any chance of KK moving to the senate, yes I know it would cause a by-election in NSW but still Kristina is being wasted on the backbench of opposition]

    I’d gladly welcome her with the right haircut.

  40. William @ 212

    Early chat seems to be that Warren Mundine is the front-runner to fill Arbib’s Senate vacancy.

    Bad choice. Too much a loose canon.

  42. HA HA BLUDGERS… THERE NEVER WAS A MEAT TRAY… FOOLED YOUSE ALL AGAIN… JUST ABOUT TO ENJOY MY COCA-COLA PRIZE OF 500,000 DOLLARS WHEN IVE SENT PERSONAL & BANKING DETAILS… DIDNT KNOW THEY HAD INTERNET IN NIGERIA BUT OH WELL. VOTING LIB NEXT TIME. RUDDOCK RULES EVEN IF HE IS DEADYETNOTDEAD!!!!!!! SUCKERS….

  43. [Diplomatic appointments have to be sanctioned by the Government of the day.]

    Kevin has already been ‘sanctioned’ once today.

  47. Santorum not fully enamored with the US Constitution.

    [The idea that the church can have no influence or no involvement in the operation of the state is absolutely antithetical to the objectives and vision of our country…to say that people of faith have no role in the public square? You bet that makes me want to throw up.]

  48. [One wild card with the Rudd scenario that no-one has discussed recently is what might happen if he is offered a high profile job with the UN. Now that he is not FM anymore he just might take it.]

    That’s the kind of nonsense that Rudd would have done. He has a choice of the back bench or retirement at the next election as long as JG leads, which I don’t see changing for a long time.

  49. slackboy72 @208,

    By all means respond to my post. That is what it is all about. I have no problems with that at all. But after this do not expect any response from me.

    However your post has given me a opportunity to put forward my feelings on what has been posted here the last few days.

    You, and a number of others, post here for no other reason than to create conflict.

    The last few days the lot of you have dragged this site down with constant crap and I will not give any of you a wiff of legitimacy by any further engagement.

    If any of you ever have a original thought it will blow your head off.

    Go somewhere that appreciates you. Where ? I have no idea.

    I now engage my scroll so I will no longer have to hold my nose and read any of your posts and those of some others on this site.

    There are many positive posters here from both sides of the political divide who I respect and whose posts I enjoy.

  50. [He had no choice because of the media overcooking.]

    I blame the Crean outburst. The aftermath of the inevitable Qld bloodbath would have been best but how can you take outbursts from a caucus colleague like that?

    The fact that Gillard stayed schtum on the Crean comments suggests to me she wanted this challenge before Labor’s stocks plumbed the depths that we will see in 4 weeks time.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 5 of 82
1 … 4 5 6 … 82