Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.
UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.
UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.
[Those who have previously excoriated Mr Cassidy might want to reflect on his role in the whole affair. He told the truth. In doing so, he triggered a leadership stoush before Mr Rudd was ready.]
Listening to Cassidy today I got the feeling that he was wanting Labor to bring it on and get the truth about 2010 out in the open so that Labor can move on. In hindsight I think he has brought about the right outcome.
Oakie and Wilkie great on Sky. Oakie gobsmacked Speers. Speers said wtte but Abbott is putting legislation through Parliament. What about the Wild Rivers legislation? Oakie, quick as a flash, said “Where is it? he hasn’t spoken to me about it. He hasn’t tried to negotiate it through a minority Parliament” and then carried on for awhile in that vein.
Speers had no comeback and closed the interview. O & W are all class.
I doubt Mr Arbib is going to be asked any questions about what he has achieved in parliament at his presser
Labor should have shot across the Fiberal’s bow about 1 VOTE TONY before they started going on about the 31 votes.
Warwick,
FYI it’s actually 56/44 not 55/45 – Essential.
[It is interesting that this episode has flushed out those who were members of a fan club or “cult” and declared if their preferred candidate did not win they would no longer support the ALP. Such is the depth of their loyalty and commitment. It will be long remembered and their comments viewed through that prism.]
You are a very negative individual. Give it a rest
[My guess is that Mr Rudd was forced into challenging before he was ready]
BW, i think the QLD election also a key factor. The QLD heavies probably told him to put up or STFU. He has no choice but to move.
Swan looked extremely content on QT that I could see before the
decided to trash it, again!
Why has Arbib resigned?
Those talking of their opponents as “cultists” should indeed give it a rest. The psychology on either side has been much the same – they’ve just found different causes to identify with.
Very clear listening to Arbib that he was pushed. My money’s on Gillard doing the pushing.
He’s done her enormous damage.
Diogenes @ 135
[And Seward was knifed (literally) on the same night as Lincoln. They also tried to kill the VP.]
If you haven’t read it, get a copy of Doris Kearns Goodwin’s very fine book ‘A Team of Rivals’ which details the smooth and professional manner in which Lincoln massaged the egos of a highly spirited team including Chase, Seward, Bates and Stanton, all originally either political enemies or rank doubters.
The way Lincoln was able to secure the co-operation and esteem of such experienced politicians (much more experienced than he, himself was considered in 1860) is a testament to his true political genius, and something that was underestimated in some previous evaluations of Lincoln’s strengths as a man and as a statesman.
whoops! PM at her best! in 148
Ok, Arbib resignation:
With a small tinfoil hat on, could it be that the ALP leadership have decided that now is the time to tie up all the loose ends from this terrible last couple of years.
Having tied off the Kevin Rudd issue (for now!) and that source of destabilization/leaking, they turned to the other publicly known source of leaks – Mr Arbib – and forced him out for the good of the party?
Just a thought.
Finns
Just guessing but I had assumed that Mr Rudd’s game plan was to do really well in QLD, wait for some more bad polls, do some more destabilization, and hope for some more bad political handling by Ms Gillard.
It came unstuck because of Mr Wilkie and Mr Cassidy.
If you are saying that once it became unstuck in public, the QLD election forced a speedy resolution, that makes sense.
And of Barrie C, he looked as though he had been out on the turps last night.
Why, in their right mind, they started the coverage at 5 am is beyond me. Something they have caught from Channel 9 starting the cricket coverage ages before the actual game. Who knows?
TBS
I read Team of Rivals last year. It inspired me to become a civil war buff. Great book.
Arbib’s resigning from the ministry in the interests of healing! Excellent move!
[ whoops! PM at her best! in 148 ]
And Tricot feel the vibe JG will cruise to and piss in the 2013 election.
Someone please explain to me where Arbib stands? Who did he support? Why? Did he leak? What did he leak?
Tom Hawkins @ 155
And selective quoting, out of context, like you did is a highly deceitful tactic.
Finns
I can’t understand the Qld election thing. They were always gonna lose bad. Now they’re gonna lose worse. Why push for that?
[ from NSW labor – KK??]
It thought KK had her eye on Kingsford-Smith.
If KK resigned her seat in NSW parliament, it would create a vacancy in a safe NSW seat – perhaps for a future state Labor leader. Though given that the ALP will be in opposition in NSW for at least 2 terms, I can’t see a headlong rush to lead NSW Labor.
GD
[Arbib’s resigning from the ministry in the interests of healing! Excellent move!]
He’s also resigning as a senator (next election). There is more to this than just healing.
[Those talking of their opponents as “cultists” should indeed give it a rest. The psychology on either side has been much the same]
I completely reject that, given I don’t ‘worship’ any political party, person or faith. But your site, your rules.
Yes Jackol, looks like all the loose ends are being tied up to ensure that clear air for the government going forward as well has helping the scars to heal. Throwing one of the architect’s of the original overthrow under the bus is a big offering to the Rudd camp and will go a long way to bringing everyone together, as well as allowing the PM to craft the best possible ministry without it looking like rewarding supporters and punishing the rest.
Today’s events will be lining budgie’s cages by next week. The structural weaknesses of the coalition that are being papered over by good poll results however will remain.
[He’s also resigning as a senator (next election).]
Next election? I’d heard next week. Anyone else know?
Incidentally, I was swimming in an infinity pool while the vote was carried out this morning. I had it all to myself. It was during a tropical downpour in the middle of a monster thunderstorm. Lightning flashed through the gloom. About half the raindrops created bubbles. The other half created miniature fountain splashes.
Just wonderful.
I calculate that somewhere around lap 37 Mr Rudd’s fate was sealed.
@Itep, he said next week i believe.
Bemused, there was nothing the slightest bit “selective” or “out of context” about Tom Hawkins’ quotation of you.
Diog, BW, the Bananabenders are funny people.
Given the party can choose a Senator’s replacement, there doesn’t seem any point in hanging around once the decision is made…
Diog, did he say he was staying to the next election? Senators are just replaced, so there is no problem of by elections. I read the reports as he’s going now.
[Those talking of their opponents as “cultists” should indeed give it a rest. The psychology on either side has been much the same]
I dont believe in the supernatural, so i cant be a cultist then, pheeewwwwwwwwww
[I calculate that somewhere around lap 37 Mr Rudd’s fate was sealed]
bw,
How can an infinity pool have a lap?
It’s certainly a blessing for the Senate that Arbib is gone. He was the worst government speaker in the Senate and he’d recently been given a lot more speaking to do, with higher profile roles. The mini reshuffle just got a bit bigger. Gillard now also needs a new asst. treasurer, a new sports minister and a senator to manage government business in the Senate. So some other lucky member gets a taxpayer funded trip to the Olympics.
[Maybe Arbib has been offered US Ambassador to Australia.]
Ah! Get rid of Arbib and bring back Beazley.
Evil genius … 😉
[ How can an infinity pool have a lap? ]
Very high surrounding barbed wire fence
SMH and Tele both have Arbib resigning from Senate effective next week …
[Someone please explain to me where Arbib stands? Who did he support? Why? Did he leak? What did he leak?]
cud chewer,
A part response to your questions from Katharine Murphy:
[4.35pm: For those struggling to understand Senator Arbib’s place in the Labor scheme of things, just some quick context.
Senator Arbib is the most powerful player in the NSW Right.
He was key in the instalation of Kevin Rudd as Labor leader.
And he was key in his removal.
Senator Arbib has been a supporter of Prime Minister Julia Gillard.
He personifies the “faceless man of the Labor Party” tag.
A creature of the backroom; a person of influence
]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/blogs/the-pulse/showdown-gillard-triumphs-arbib-quits-20120227-1tx2i.html#ixzz1nYfx788X
triton
You follow the senate. Why do you think he is going?
new Assistant Treasurer – Dr Andrew Leigh! Please.
[So some other lucky member gets a taxpayer funded trip to the Olympics.]
Damn! I’m from NSW but not a member…
Arbib – good riddance. Perhaps this is the new Alboism at work, purging the source of the troubles. Or better – Gillard clearing the decks of the bad blood.
Though naturally I suspect some darker NSW-related underhanded factional powerplay.
Apols. He’s resigning next week, not next election.
So who replaces him?
Maybe they need someone from the right to go so they can sack a left faction minister, such as Carr?
William @ 179
Oh really?
Here is my full post @ 124
Tom Hawkins @ 155 chose to quote only my last paragraph which certainly does put it out of context.
Care to explain what makes you think otherwise?
I like how Chris Bowen says he’s happy to serve in “any cabinet capacity”, not any ministerial capacity. I’ve heard him say it twice today.
[I read Team of Rivals last year. It inspired me to become a civil war buff. Great book.]
Have a read of Lincolns Second Inaugral by Ronald C White. book analyses the 700 word inaugral speech by lincoln. stating it should be held as high as gettysburg. brilliant piece of scholarship.
[Apols. He’s resigning next week, not next election.]
Dio,
Which could be next week if many of th MSM and Tony Abbott could have their way…
Diogenes @ 166
[I read Team of Rivals last year. It inspired me to become a civil war buff. Great book.]
Indeed. I’ve just been in the US arranging the disposition of my Dad’s ashes in his native Pennsylvania, and I again had the sobering experience of touring the Gettysburg battlefields with some friends. Like similar pilgrimages I have made to the sombre scenes of carnage on The Somme and at Gallipoli, these arenas of such human futility and drama beggar belief when one sees how bucolic and calm they now appear, and one cannot help but reflect on the enormous sacrifices made by so many young men.