Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.
UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.
UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.
Rudd is finished it is all over. these are always the cries of the ever certain MSM who never have an eye to history. I believe they we writing him off back in 2010 as never be able to come back aswell.
Lyne Lady,
Albo is not alone.
DIOGENES – But it appears to me, looking from the outside, that we saw a stunning display of factional discipline today in the party-room. Why wouldn’t that repeat itself if a heavy from the right stepped forward to challenge? Why would Rudd pull many more supporters? Would the terror of electoral oblivion be enough? I’m really starting to doubt that? The networks seem too tight.
I’m still trying to figure out why Rudd did this knowing the outcome?
He should of shut his mouth up and waited for QLD election, If Bligh loses, he could have had the top job there.
lefty e
As a GRN, do you think greens will target Albanese in Grandlyer on basis of his support for the less environmentally robust Rudd than the PM? I got a hint Bob Brown with his dig at Martin Ferguson may be thinking along those lines
There is a good case for arguing that Mr Rudd would make an excellent LOTO, but a poor PM.
Not sure if this has happened previously in Oz politics.
BEMUSED – Yes, thanks.
Essential Media – 45/55 – outlier?
There is no way that many who voted for Rudd would even entertain the idea of Rudd ever leading the party again.
71 in the caucus have now given Julia leadership legitimacy.
Those here who think that Rudd still has life are sadly out of touch with political reality. 😯
Like I said last night, it’s been a very good leadership spill for the ALP.
The problems of Rudd as PM and after have had a good airing and he’s had his backside handed to him with a 30% vote. That is a thrashing in anyone’s terms.
Now that he’s seen the writing on the wall (written in his own blood) that he isn’t going to get the top job back any time soon I think Rudd will play nice (for the time being at least). His backers being so publicly shown to be a small minority won’t have much heart for a rerun either.
This will all change the narrative that surrounds Gillard and Labor. It has already started today. Of course those on the Rudd drip like Hartcher and Simkin will write it up as all bad, but most other commentators were moving from the “she’s finished – it’s just a question of when” meme to actually questioning at what point the spotlight might turn to Abbott.
The PM has also sharpened up her speech and is giving snappy answers. She is projecting power, and is starting to rack up some victories to back that up. The fact that she continues to win when the odds are stacked against her is starting to slowly sink in to the commentariat. Each victory brings her closer to “Iron Lady” status amongst the talking heads. It will take a while yet, but it’s getting there.
A week like this can energise the party. Such a decisive vote will buoy the PM’s supporters and focus the minds of Rudd’s supporters onto what they need to do – fighting tories. For at least a few months none of Rudd’s supporters are going to want to be seen not pulling their weight.
The reshuffle may see McClelland dropped from Cabinet and perhaps Carr dropped altogether (but maybe not), but I reckon that might be balanced by promotion of a Rudd supporter (Kelly? I’m assuming he went Rudd) so that the PM can strongly argue that it was based solely on performance and not revenge. Albo is safe as houses, Bowen will keep immigration as punishment enough and M’arn might get a sideways shove to something that will get him out of being Big Mining’s advocate in Cabinet. There won’t be any night of the long knives.
All in all a good cathartic day for the government. Abbott and his clowns can rehash quotes all they like (it’s not like an equally large smorgasboard of embarrassing quotes couldn’t be prepared from their utterances), every day they spend focusing on such trivia instead of good policy is a day closer to their eventual failure. In the end policy will matter and Abbott hasn’t got any and is unlikely to every have any worth a damn.
[As a GRN, do you think greens will target Albanese in Grandlyer on basis of his support for the less environmentally robust Rudd than the PM? I got a hint Bob Brown with his dig at Martin Ferguson may be thinking along those lines]
Shellbell – no. Mar’n is a special case, all on his own. Greens will obv run hard as any other time in Grayndler, but with no particular anti-Albo malice.
Grog’s piece today is good: http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2012/02/alp-leadership-vote-gillard-71rudd-31.html
CENTRE – Legitimacy with whom? The caucus? That’s not where she needs legitimacy. Her big worry now is not Rudd, but her own bodyguard.
Lyne Lady,
[ tlbd 66
albo despises her ]
He’s a good judge of character is Albo! 😉
Simon (Cullen) says:
[Simon Cullen@Simon_CullenReply
The ABC understands Mark Arbib is to resign as Minister and Senator]
BEMUSED – Yes, thank you for that link.
true? mark arbib resigning
Arbib “soon to hold a presser”, tweets Simon Cullen.
[true? mark arbib resigning]
Please say so… appalling man. Although presumably part of some medium-term power gambit.
Maybe Arbib has been offered US Ambassador to Australia.
Diogenes @ 61
[Lincoln installed all of his main rivals in the key Cabinet positions.
Is Gillard going to do that?]
She already did that with Rudd as Foreign Minister since before the election in 2010, as did Abraham Lincoln in appointing his main rivals Salmon P. Chase and William H. Seward as, respectively, his Secretary of Treasury and his Secretary of State in 1861.
The parallel goes further, with the serially disloyal Chase eventually eased out of political office prior to the 1864 election into the post of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court after Lincoln eventually accepted his oft-provided resignation when he judged that he no longer needed his political support. Seward, originally an implacable foe of Lincoln, eventually came to regard him as a God-send, and backed him fully in 1864.
[true? mark arbib resigning]
Maybe it was going to be part of the reshuffle and he decided to jump the gun?
Mark Arbib has just resigned from the ministry and the Senate. – oh dear, another Faceless man of Abbott has become faceful
Spotted this good line in a comment on Business Spectator:
And so it is with those of us who favoured Kevin Rudd for the leadership. We will get behind the ALP and work for victory at the next election.
It is interesting that this episode has flushed out those who were members of a fan club or “cult” and declared if their preferred candidate did not win they would no longer support the ALP. Such is the depth of their loyalty and commitment. It will be long remembered and their comments viewed through that prism.
Z
My guess is that Mr Rudd was forced into challenging before he was ready and before he had the numbers. Having been flushed out, he had to run or he would have been finished anyway.
He was flushed out by the revelations from Mr Wilkie (November suborning story) and Mr Cassidy (four journos story).
Once public, these enabled a public counter attack by senior ministers. Their attacks, which were not repudiated by Ms Gillard, made Mr Rudd’s position as Cabinet minister untenable.
Those who have previously excoriated Mr Cassidy might want to reflect on his role in the whole affair. He told the truth. In doing so, he triggered a leadership stoush before Mr Rudd was ready.
Arbib press conference “at 4.10pm”, apparently.
So who is waiting in the wings for a gig as a Labor senator? Someone of distinction hopefully. A positive high public profile would be good.
In the Senate. lol
[ Matter of public importance – the complete dysfunction of the Labor Government ]
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/
GG
[“Lincoln installed all of his main rivals in the key Cabinet positions”.
Lincoln was shot!]
And by someone who stayed in Rudd’s hotel in Washington.
rosa @ 107
It was not what I would call a timeline but it was interesting in the interpretation it placed on the motives of some.
It made Rudd’s comment about supporting Julia Gillard in his speech rather pointed.
rosa
The Party through a genuine democratic process has overwhelmingly elected Gillard by a staggering 71 to 31 votes against Rudd taking into account the manner in which Rudd was removed from office.
Julia has far more legitimacy now than what Abbott will ever have.
I think you could well do yourself a better service if you just concede.
You have been defeated. 😀
[The parallel goes further, with the serially disloyal Chase eventually eased out of political office prior to the 1864 election into the post of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court after Lincoln eventually accepted his oft-provided resignation when he judged that he no longer needed his political support. Seward, originally an implacable foe of Lincoln, eventually came to regard him as a God-send, and backed him fully in 1864]
with the ultimate irony being it was Salmon Chase who conducted the second inaugral of Lincoln being the Chief Justice.
[ Tom Hawkins
Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 4:09 pm | Permalink
So who is waiting in the wings for a gig as a Labor senator? Someone of distinction hopefully. A positive high public profile would be good.]
from NSW labor – KK??
[ Puffy
Schacht, an ex Labor Senator and numbers man, said it might happen if the polls didn’t improve. ]
Diogenes, didn’t you already yesterday or earlier today try to throw a third player into the mix with todays ballot?
TBS
And Seward was knifed (literally) on the same night as Lincoln. They also tried to kill the VP.
Good to see the PM admit today that she should have told the full story of the leadership change in 2010, and that that made it difficult for the voters to understand.
I see that she was trying to protect the Rudd legacy and not inflict potential electoral damage at the time. But it was a mistake
BEMUSED – Yes, Black by name and black by outlook.
So why would Rudd go now knowing that he wasn’t going to win? hmmm what do you all reckon?
Who won the meat tray by the way?
Dr John
[Diogenes, didn’t you already yesterday or earlier today try to throw a third player into the mix with todays ballot?]
No.
All eyes will be on the next Newspoll
[Who won the meat tray by the way?]
I believe it has to be split. 😉
The problems with Grog’s piece are:
(1) It assumes the journos were not being backgrounded and it assumes that Mr Rudd’s ‘slips’ really were ‘slips’.
(2) It assumes that the journalists were able to predict accurately that the social media strategy plus bad polls wouldn’t ‘force’ a Caucus vote more favorable for Mr Rudd.
Otoh, I agree with Grog’s view that many journalists provided substandard analyses, generally oozed contempt, and saw themselves as players rather than as commentators. With some notable exceptions, the MSM has done some real destruction to Australia.
I posted a probably a week ago about how Julia continues to be underated and yet here again she prevails – an athiest, unmarried woman living in sin from the left faction with poor polls and no absolute majority in parliament is still PM.
There are/were two men who wanted her job – Rudd and Abbott.
She has now challenged or been challenged by Rudd on two occasions and come out with the spoils on both occassions.
She went up against Abbott and 17 days after the election she prevailed.
She continues to progress and implement good policy notwithstanding the backgorund polling white noise.
I beleive that once she had Slipper ensconsed she has worked on flushing out Rudd on her timetable and the pokes at him or his supporters at the conference, during the reshuffle and during this month forced the issue.
She is no certainity to lead the labor pary to the next election but I wouldn’t bet against her.
I’ll make this prediction though. If the election is held in late 2013 and Gillard is leader then she will win, and that would make it a clean sweep of both Rudd and Abbott.
Funnily enough some poster called feeney called her a loser a few days ago.
Might be a job for Andrew Leigh.
r
Think Big thought that it was 29 and ate it before s/he could be stopped.
so will arbib now come into the lower house – maybe sit next to kev?? interesting suggestion for kriistina k to replace arbib in senate
CENTRE – A bit sat that you think it’s a question of whether you or I lost. That’s not how I would frame it.
Well done to the mob on 31 who won the tray of meat!
At the moment I still think three options are available to Labor for the next 18 months.
*Gillard stays on her feet and fights it out in 2013
*Some time in the future – and way beyond August – and JG is not cutting through – then there may be consideration of leadership change
*Such change will either be to Rudd or the Third Man/Woman
I am not very optimistic about the outcomes which might be associated 2 and 3.
The ABC coverage in 24 this morning was pretty average. However, the PM was really at his best at the press conference.
She obviously has been getting her skills honed here as I noted she would eye attach to the questioner, but once finished, actually turn her whole body towards the next questioner thereby making it plain to the previous questioner, that they had had their shot and she was not coming back to them.
Well done PM! Some more of this please.
I would make them state their names and news organisations so that we see who asks the most stupid question.
One this morning was – and not to the PM – “Who was sitting next to Kevin Rudd in the ballot?” And, they actually get paid for these gems?
Julia trying to shore up her credentials on the left?
BW
I had originally held that Rudd wouldn’t challenge because he could count, but it does look like he was flushed out. Now we can only speculate on how much input Gillard had on that. It might have been completely coincidental. But when you line it up with other circumstances such as her original ascension, negotiating government with the indies, Slipper taking the speakership, and now having Rudd go far too early, well she does seem to end up on the winning side of these events…
Murphy in The Pulse has just written “Must be the day for victories by iron ladies.”