Despite having mostly come too early for the weekend’s excitement, the weekly Essential Research poll has moved away a point from the 54-46 stasis in which it had been locked since December 12, with the Coalition lead now at 55-45. Since Essential is a two-week rolling average, so that only half the poll was conducted over the previous week, this shift is more likely to be meaningful than it would from another pollster, although it’s probably still within the margin of error. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33 per cent with the Coalition up one to 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent.
Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.
Hmm .. do those numbers match the fiction they put up the other day? If Rudd gets that number or more on Monday I will lick Abbott’s arse.
PS Team Gillard may think theyve flushed out a closure to this episode, but theyre dreaming: its in fact very simple for Rudd to refuse to play ball Monday, and await 2013.
And thats …. no closure at all. Think about it.
Never be drawn on the the battlefield of your enemy’s choosing, etc.
I don’t find anything statesmen like in our Foreign Minister indulging himself while representing Australia in a foreign country. The words were typical Rudd speak but the action was not that of a statesman.
Bemused give it up.
Rudd is finished.
He blew it. Big time.
Has been exposed as the traitor he is.
Fancy promising to tear up a reform he once championed (pokies).
The releasing of the pent up frustration of the likes of Emmo and Swanny tonight says it all. They have been disciplined to now by saying nothing about the duplicitous Rudd.
They were doing the right thing by the team, unlike Herr Rudd.
Rudd’s only friends in caucus are the naive dunderheads like Cheeseman.
[Swan exposed himself tonight; his dummy spit was a last toss of the dice affair. ]
There are Labor MPs that have a deep hatred of Rudd.
The thing is, whatever he does or has done, he will always be a Labor P.M., so you\’d think he would get some respect.
Swan\’s outburst just proved that without Gillard, Swan wouldn\’t be in cabinet, let alone Treasurer.
[ Who sadly watched two leaders destroy each other,]
not sure Shorto would be that sad …
Indulging himself by resigning … Sorry missed a few key words
And Mark Riley has been caught spreading blatant untruths, just to keep himself sweet with Gillard – remember his fawning question to her at the National Press Club last year?
Channel 7 might be looking for a new political correspondent soon.
I would expect Rudd to not contest the ballot next week.
Paul would want to do them slowly but based on their performance give them time and they will do themselves slowly.
Think the only hope for Labor is Smith. Julia and Kevin can sit next to each other on the backbench writing their tell all books.
Whatever happens, I hope Michael Danby is made the new Minister for Foreign Affairs. Failing that, he should get Immigration (Bowen seems to be backing Rudd).
The fact Danby isn\’t a minister is a joke.
[Bemused give it up.
Rudd is finished.
He blew it. Big time.
Has been exposed as the traitor he is.
Fancy promising to tear up a reform he once championed (pokies).]
My press is swinging voters still feel sorry for Rudd, and his ‘factions’ stuff just rings true.
Good or bad in reality ‘factions’ have a bad reputation.
[News Ltd papers saying that KRudd has 39 votes “locked in”]
Then its over. That is enough to say that he will get their eventually unless Gillard can improve, which they know now wont happen.
It is enough to move some more over.
The game will now be of trying to insert a compromise candidate I guess.
Mark Riley and Channel 7 might be out of pocket too. Especially if Rudd loses. Someone asked what he could do if he left politics. Could spend 10 years suing the media and maybe some politicians. He has deep pockets
actually if rudd hadn’t have been picked way back then then its more likely that Ms Gillard would be a pm with a very comfortable majority
[The words were typical Rudd speak but the action was not that of a statesman.]
It was self indulgent ME,ME,ME, crap. Still, he’ll be able to take some time to write his memoirs maybe, while other people get on and do the actual work of Govt as he waits out the rest of this term on the backbench.
Oh, and commiserating with Turnbull on how the parties treated them badly.
Hey, maybe he and Mal could form a new party for thwarted ego’s??
[actually if rudd hadn’t have been picked way back then then its more likely that Ms Gillard would be a pm with a very comfortable majority]
I don’t know about that, but I’d argue Labor would still be ‘better off’ in Opposition for another term than having wasted an entire period of Government.
[Think the only hope for Labor is Smith. Julia and Kevin can sit next to each other on the backbench writing their tell all books]
Tend to agree. Too much aggro between them. Smith would do nicely – he’s not as boring as people say. Labor probably need a cleanskin now that their self control has abandoned them. Its a sorry sight.
[actually if rudd hadn’t have been picked way back then then its more likely that Ms Gillard would be a pm with a very comfortable majority]
yeah because she is so popular that is an obvious conclusion
The press will do every thing to pretend that the ballot will be close. It isn’t. Gillard will win easily.
Now Rudd may choose not to run. Keep his powder dry, live to fight another day and pick his time. That only re inforces he has not got the the numbers. Gillard will just get on with Governing. A new FM will be appointed, Cabinet won’t leak and Rudd can haunt the backbench.
Even if Gillard remains PM, I hope Oakeshott because Treasurer.
Swan has proven that he no longer has the temperament for the job.
[actually if rudd hadn’t have been picked way back then then its more likely that Ms Gillard would be a pm with a very comfortable majority]
Yeah, she did so well against Abbott with an incumbency advantage – she’d obviously have slayed Howard or Costello without one.
If Rudd obtained 39 votes that would leave Gillard with 64 (I think)
That is a solid margin under normal circumstances but when one is a minority government is that enough. I am not totally sure and as long as Windsor and Okeshot are supportive of the PM then she should be able to survive until polling day but I see the next election as close to being a write off for the government.
But due to the solid economy and several good policies then the ALP may find a way to be returned.
Keep dreaming, Paine, because that sure isn’t reality. Geez.
Henry @ 4404
You obviously lack the mental processing ability to follow the logic of my earlier posts which explain why those claims are bs.
Rudd could not make such offers, even if he wanted to, as he would be only 1 vote in Cabinet. Do you really think he is not aware of that?
Yes Shorten is the real potential winner
Actually I am going to make a wild prediction -maybe more a suspicion than a prediction
Julia has ALREADY had the tap on the shoulder. Tomorrow she will announce SHE is stepping down for the good of the Party.
Just a thought. She might nominate Smith?????
duckie
Re the feathers, your self-sacrifice is much appreciated. I suggest the feathers derriere would be most appropriate.
Yep, Julia Gillard would have obviously beaten John Howard – an unmarried woman vs John & Janette.
You gotta love how the Gillardites keep rewriting history. 🙂
[No pain train, Rudd was knifed because he was an insufferable micro manager who treated everyone with contempt. Smartest guy in the room syndrome.
He got his comeuppance and he deserved it. Sad because he was given all the indulgences in the world, naming his own cabinet etc.
Like the last time he will squib the ballot on monday.]
True or false this is not what they said on the night, and it was them who put him in charge and the voters who voted labor in a presidential style election weren’t given this, still don’t really have it. The how of his removal (regardless of whether it was justified) was really really stupid and all labor supporters are paying the price now.
Rudd wont be suing anybody post politics.
The simple defense of truth will prevent that.
He saw the writing on the wall with the riley expose of his backstabbing re the pokies and jumped before he was pushed.
Allowing for the news ltd fudge factor it looks as if Kev has about 15 votes.
Night Kev.
[The game will now be of trying to insert a compromise candidate I guess.]
Yes, if it gets to a point when the Right factions think Gillard can\’t win, they will convince her not to run and will endorse someone other than Rudd who will probably win.
Thornleigh Labor Man – The biggest strength that the ALP had in 2007 was the disunity between Howard and Costello plus workchoices
[Gary Sparrow
Posted Wednesday, February 22, 2012 at 10:22 pm | Permalink
Rudd’s masterstroke was resigning and putting it all on Gillard.
I reckon he’ll knock her off.]
Now there’s a wager I’d love to take you up on.
Mick
In 2006 there was NO chance that Gillard could have been elected leader. She was nominally of the Left and there has not been a left leader since Evatt . In part this would be a problem because of negative media. It was only because the public had got used to her as acting PM that a “leftie” had a chance
So TLM your hatred really is because she is a woman ‘living in sin’. Are you a committed Christian by any chance?
WeWantPaul actually the reason was spoken off quite a bit after the change in leadership.
Rudd was seen as those things that you quoted
[Julia has ALREADY had the tap on the shoulder. Tomorrow she will announce SHE is stepping down for the good of the Party.]
Well all those rumblings early this afternoon of \”senior Gillard supporters\” telling Gillard to sack Rudd frankly sounded like faction leaders giving her an ultimatum: \”sack Rudd from cabinet now or we will support someone to be leader other than you and Rudd who will be willing to sack him\”.
Strange things in the water at this time of the night.
Gillard will not resign or makeway for anyone. She is in for the long haul. They’ll have to blast her out.
GG – I believe Gillard is well known for being a tough cookie more than able to face down grown men.
Kevin isn’t known for toughness, yes he is known for being smart
[WeWantPaul actually the reason was spoken off quite a bit after the change in leadership.
Rudd was seen as those things that you quoted]
yes it has been tried in the time since but so has a whole lot of balony so that most of us wouldn’t know the truth
GG @ 4437
And she will eventually be blasted out and the electorate will cheer.
[You obviously lack the mental processing ability to follow the logic of my earlier posts which explain why those claims are bs.
Rudd could not make such offers, even if he wanted to, as he would be only 1 vote in Cabinet. Do you really think he is not aware of that?]
You really sound like a broken old fogey record Bemused.
If you can’t see how Rudd would have been swanning around with his “don’t worry I will cancel the pokie reforms when I am pm again” routine then you must have failed politics 101. Desperate men do desperate things.
Remember the gang of 4? Rudd Redux would make it the gang of one.
Is it still possible to resign your own seat and then run for it in the by-election you have caused?
[ Gillard will not resign or makeway for anyone. She is in for the long haul. They’ll have to blast her out.
And she will eventually be blasted out and the electorate will cheer.]
Many would like to but the reality of Tony will silence the cheers very quickly.
[Mod Lib
Posted Wednesday, February 22, 2012 at 10:58 pm | Permalink
Gillard is absolutely gold for us liberals! ALP primary vote 25-35 across country!!!!
She has presided over such damage to the ALP brand its going to set our side of politics up for ages. ]
How’s that bet going with ru?
Tony Burke might do the job
____________________
Watching Burke tonight I though he may make a suitable comoromise candidate
Rudd can’t getthe nukmbers and unfortunately Giillard may have the numbers but can’t overcome the voters dislike of her…if the polls are to be believed
So Burke has much to offer
GG,
Clearly Rudd has already decided to spend some powder.
Personally I didn’t like the 1st change of leader, it looked weak, but for some reason I feel another change now would be much worse… and not very fair.
I have warmed to Gillard because she has actually gotten a few things done. Rudd could have easily done the ETS, but took the Goodwin thing too personally with Turnbull and sabotaged it with his ego.
I could happily support Rudd, but only after all the hard things Gillard has acheived have been realised and she has had the chance to enjoy some fruit. As far as I’m concerned if Rudd is to get another chance it should only come shortly before the next election.
From what I have seen over the last couple of years, one of the biggest mistakes of the Rudd government was not giving Gillard have Treasury.
So what that she was from the Left and was a Woman. Clearly one of the biggest problems of the Rudd and Gillard governments has been that Swan has been treasury. He has been competent, but has completely failed at explaining the government\’s economic achievements, which have been very good.
Politics isn\’t just about doing good things, it is about explaining them well, and explaining how the incumbent offers stability and competence that the opposition doesn\’t.
Yes. You would be unlikely to be re-selected for the party you belonged to but could stand independently
[I have warmed to Gillard because she has actually gotten a few things done. Rudd could have easily done the ETS, but took the Goodwin thing too personally with Turnbull and sabotaged it with his ego.]
Absolute total rubbish.
Talking about undermining and damaging Labor, I feel for Kate Jones tonight. She was relying on Kevin R to help her in her gargantuan battle against Newman and Swan just destroyed her best asset.
Now what was that he said “All about him”
Swan trashed Kate’s chances so he could keep his Treasury gig. Very loyal top a hardworking member
Act of bloody bastardry that is worse that anything that happened in the federal campaign.