Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition

Three new poll results from Roy Morgan, if you please. Despite its modest sample of 543 and high margin of error of over 4 per cent, the phone poll conducted over the past two nights is the most interesting, both for its currency and for the fact that phone polling has a clearly superior track record to Morgan’s Labor-biased face-to-face polls. Averaging Morgan’s phone poll results back to May gives almost the exact same result as for Newspoll, although the smaller samples mean Morgan has been more erratic from poll to poll.

The latest result is within the margins of recent results from other pollsters, although slightly at the Coalition end of the scale: their two-party lead is 55-45 compared with most others’ 54-46, with primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 46.5 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. The phone poll does not replicate the issue I keep going on about of Morgan’s face-to-face polling producing wildly different results according to whether preferences are distributed as per the result of the last election or according to respondents’ stated intentions. It instead gives us 55-45 on respondent-allocated and 55.5-44.5 on previous-election, and thus chimes with this week’s Nielsen which in fact had Labor’s share of preferences slightly higher than at the election.

Speaking of which, Morgan has published not one but two sets of face-to-face figures. Normally Morgan either publishes results from its regular weekend polling the following Friday (or occasionally Thursday), but sometimes it holds off for a week and publishes a result a combined result from two weekends. This time they have held off for a week and published separate results for each weekend. The earlier poll, conducted on January 28/29 (Australia Day having been the preceding Thursday), was remarkably positive for Labor: not only did they maintain their lead on the previous-election (51-49) method from the result published a fortnight ago, they also opened a lead on the respondent-allocated measure (50.5-49.5), which for once looked similar to the previous election result. The primary votes were 39.5 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens.

However, the polling on February 4/5 told a somewhat different story, with the Coalition up four points to 45.5 per cent, Labor down one to 38.5 per cent and the Greens down half to 9.5 per cent. This panned out to a 53.5-46.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on previous election. The polls individually had a sample of 1000 and theoretically a margin of error of around 3 per cent. However, the more telling point is how much Morgan face-to-face results continue to differ from other series which have consistently proved nearer the mark. In 2011, the average primary vote for Labor in Morgan was 35.9 per cent, compared with 34.1 per cent for Essential Research, 30.7 per cent for Newspoll and 29.5 per cent for Nielsen. The gap between Essential and the latter two is partly accounted for by Essential having a consistently lower result for the Greens: on two-party preferred, Essential and Newspoll were fairly similar.

For a look at the bigger polling picture, Possum surveys a landscape of flat calm 54-46 polling going back to November.

UPDATE (13/2): Another week, another 54-46 Essential Research result. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor is back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval finds both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but Gillard has nonetheless made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expect her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent. A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There’s also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.

We also had a teaser last night from Newspoll, which had Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,682 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  2. Two things came out of the Four Corners report: One America had more of an influence then backbenchers and the caucus on the leadership change.
    And two Rudd is not a factional person who lets the factions control things. Gillard on the other hand is a factional person who is controlled by the factions.
    What the faceless people did was simply a disgrace. To also manipulate a poll concerning popularity between Gillard and Rudd to the other members of parliament sums up the decietfulness of it all. Shorten, Feeney, Arbib and Farrelll should be booted out the Labor Party- simple, they have no idea.

    Gillard has always been seen as the knifing leader and this perception will never change.

  3. Jackol:

    BTW, you are right, I can’t say Gillard knew for the whole 2 weeks, but she clearly knew at some point in the 2 weeks before the coup that the speech was being written…

  4. blackburnpseph – yes I found it surprising that the P.M could not recall that considering the chance was due to the government losing direction and support

  5. [WeWantPaul I think we can recall that there was a lot of talk during 2010 about the direction of the government and that was debated here widely with some claiming that it was all a beat up]

    I was amoungst the it must be a beatup they aren’t that stupid club, but I was the stupid one.

  6. I’m sure the Gillard detractors will read anything they want into the 4C program. Had she denied everything the response would have been she lied.

  7. So far I can’t see one person changing their mind on Gillard or the change of leadership. The program has just reinforced set views. What a surprise.

  8. shellbell
    [There are a lot of reasons not to swim in Darwin harbour. You have just added one with that link.]
    I tried to tell my russian boss and his wife about the number of crocs in the harbour. He did not believe and so they continued to swim down East Point way. Well that was until a 4 meter croc cruised by as he fished of the rocks by the ski club 🙂

  9. [QandA still asking today what I have been ridiculed for several times here for asking over the last year: why was Rudd rolled?]

    No surprises there. They have apparently been asking the same question EVERY Qanda since Rudd Removal.

    Memo ABC: Rudd isn’t the PM, and is unlikely to ever become so again. It’s time the ABC owned a debate not already present everywhere else in the msm.

  10. If he was rolled on personality issues

    I think it was clear that it was quite a bit more than “personality issues”.

    However, as many have pointed out, there is quite a bit different to being an opposition leader, or a member of parliament, or a political operator, compared to actually being prime minister. As one of the MPs quoted in 4C said, you have to grow into the role. After 2 years, Kevin Rudd should have grown into the role, and the ALP looked around at how it was all working and collectively said “this isn’t working”.

    Knowing Kevin Rudd for a decade in his previous incarnations wasn’t going to tell you how well he would handle being Prime Minister.

  11. [If he was rolled on personality issues why didn’t his caucus colleagues figure that out in the previous decade?]

    He’d only been leader since 2006 and he’d only been Prime Minister since 2007.

    You do understand that certain people change once in power and certain negative personality traits can come to the fore?

  13. [As one of the MPs quoted in 4C said, you have to grow into the role. After 2 years, Kevin Rudd should have grown into the role, and the ALP looked around at how it was all working and collectively said “this isn’t working”.]

    Hmmm….and what about the current situation? Is the ALP looking around now?

  15. [The issue again turns to Gillard’s honesty and trustworthiness as far as public perceptions go. And I am sure the Coalition will work very hard from this angle as it would be simply reinforcing an existing perception, and thus make it very powerful. Likewise Rudd will be seen as the victim deceived by his deputy.]

    Tony Abbott: In your guts you know he’s nuts !

  16. [The issue again turns to Gillard’s honesty and trustworthiness as far as public perceptions go. And I am sure the Coalition will work very hard from this angle as it would be simply reinforcing an existing perception, and thus make it very powerful. Likewise Rudd will be seen as the victim deceived by his deputy.]

    Tony Abbott: In your guts you know he’s nuts !

  17. Gary- what leaders over the last forty years have only been in front in the polls for about four weeks as Prime Minister?

    Gillard is not liked by the public, the public wins elections not parliamentary members. She is wooden, stands for nothing, lacks empathy and is being run by the factions and America.

  18. Darren:

    So the Prime Ministership of Australia was handed to Gillard because the ALP caucus didn’t realise that Rudd was an egomaniac?

    Tell them to call me next time, I can save them a couple of years…

  20. [Gary- what leaders over the last forty years have only been in front in the polls for about four weeks as Prime Minister?

    Gillard is not liked by the public, the public wins elections not parliamentary members. She is wooden, stands for nothing, lacks empathy and is being run by the factions and America.]
    Been over this time and again. Not one more time for me. It’s done. She’ll be there a lot longer yet.

  22. [They edited out the answers and left in the gotchas.

    Rather like their coverage of QT, actually.]

    Thanks Bb – I thought that must have been the case for the PM to release those extra bits.

  24. Julia Gillard has never had the chance to”grow” into the role – because her legs wer cut off at the outset – they left a foot however – for occasional mouth insertion.

  25. [This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    I watch 4C for the music all the time …

    Have they done the Ride of the Valkyries yet?]

    The Horror! The Horror!

  26. [Go sprocket – and while you’re at it, ask for Turnbull to give his side of events – if he’s game.]

    …..and what was that illness that kept Fran Bailey from voting? Any answers mr rabbot?

  28. I never understood why at this time, when Labor is clearly behind the coalition, we still have supporters waging wars in this forum because they support either Gillard or Rudd.

    For the record, if nothing else is taken into consideration, I have a slight preference for Rudd. He radiates intelligences and confidence while Gillard doesn’t (This is not to say, of course, that the PM is not intelligent or confident). He has an air/image of leadership while as the PM comes across as more of a hard-working minister but not Prime Minister.

    However, I also understand that at any stage before the next election, any change of Labor leadership is an act of electoral suicide. My reasons are the following:
    1. There is nothing in the political narrative in the next 1.5 years that would seriously harm Labor’s chances. Everything the coalition can throw mud at has already been tried. In effect, the coalition has staged their attack too early. They will run out of ammunition when the election draws nearer and will be recycling old topics. Needless to say, another change of leadership would be a god-send to the coalition attacking team and would rob Labor of much needed space to focus on their side of the story and their vision for the country.
    2. Another change of leadership would be perceived by the electorate as a sign of weakness, a sign of disunity and a rejection of everything Labor stood for since the last election. It is like throwing paint onto Labor’s own portrait.
    3. Another leadership change would strengthen the analogy/link to the former NSW government, which let’s be honest, still stinks pretty badly.
    4. Another change of leadership risks alienating the independents, and backbenchers.
    5. Another change of leadership would not solve the issue. For all Kevin Rudd’s charisma, it would be extremely easy for the coalition to remind everyone of the problems he faced and they can add destablising party leader to that list, which will make him appear bitter, vindictive and calculating, further tarnishing his image. We will also have those who are loyal to Gillard smarting from their defeat.
    So please, stop this fighting among ourselves. Yes, Gillard knifed Rudd, whether it is an impromptu decision or planned for weeks does not matter. The wisdom of that coup also does not matter. She is the Labor PM now, She is Labor.

  29. Red Kerry hit the spot…

    Two leaders who are both damaged goods…none of whom can oust the other 🙂

    That = one happy Abbott lol

  30. [Kevin Rudd should have seen coup d’état coming]

    Everything suggests that Rudds is not the type of personality to see such things coming

  33. [Julia Gillard has never had the chance to”grow” into the role – because her legs wer cut off at the outset – they left a foot however – for occasional mouth insertion.]
    It’s for people like yourself that I hope she wins the next election. That’ll wipe the smile off.

  34. [scorpio
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 8:59 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes,

    William

    Are you thinking of Barnaby, Diogenes?

    Right you are. I was getting my braindead Qld LNPers mixed up.

    Careful there Diog. No way will us Qlanders claim a NSW reject in the personage of Barnaby Rubble as one of us.

    You Crow eaters haven’t got a casual seat down there you could fit him in, have you? ]

    How about Sturt or Boothby?

  35. [Julia Gillard has never had the chance to”grow” into the role – because her legs wer cut off at the outset – they left a foot however – for occasional mouth insertion.]

    Don’t worry too much, blackburnpseph, she now has a slipper.

  36. [Kevin Rudd should have seen coup d’état coming]

    I have a pretty clear memory of it being reported not only that he did see it coming but that he had retreated into a very small circle more than a month before it did happen. One of the reasons the ‘it was only a week’ lie is so important, but paranoia isn’t when it is right.

    But yawn Gary is right very few minds will change now, lucky the Govt’s polling is so incredibly strong given minds are locked down.

  37. Julia Gillard will never grow into the role because the factions will be telling her what to do. Now i know why they hated Rudd the factional hacks could not get their way. And look how all the hacks were rewarded in the Cabinet reshuffle. Any wonder they do not want to go back to Rudd their positions and wage rises will dissappear if Rudd becomes leader.

  39. [So the Prime Ministership of Australia was handed to Gillard because the ALP caucus didn’t realise that Rudd was an egomaniac?]

    I sense the Libs are in the same situation with Abbott: don’t want to knife him because they are leading in the polls, but know that should he win office for them will be much much worse than Rudd ever was.

  40. [Red Kerry hit the spot…

    Two leaders who are both damaged goods…none of whom can oust the other 🙂

    That = one happy Abbott lol]

    Good to know Gary that even at our lowest we are well above your highest in almost every positive respect – maybe physical fitness wise Abbott does ok

  41. Scringler @ 4195

    bemused,

    I’m not one to arc up, I hate biffo and will run a mile, but your continual goading of My Say has me bristling, my hackles are up and dangerous, my umbrage level has reached 10, on a scale of nine.

    Stop it. Thanks. The scroll wheel is your friend.

    I try not to start anything but I will return fire.

    My say has been indulging in attacks on me, and others, for a long time, apparently because we won’t buy into her ‘Julia the immaculate’ cult. I reserve my right to return fire.

    Or do you think she is a protected species?

  42. I cannot understand why Julia even agreed to appear on the 4C program.

    Some of her answers appeared evasive, and that is not a good look in the current political leadership climate.

    Like Rudd, Gillard should have refused to participate in this witch hunt.

  44. [Julia Gillard will never grow into the role because the factions will be telling her what to do. Now i know why they hated Rudd the factional hacks could not get their way. And look how all the hacks were rewarded in the Cabinet reshuffle. Any wonder they do not want to go back to Rudd their positions and wage rises will dissappear if Rudd becomes leader.]
    You’re too busy fighting the factional war.

  47. [I sense the Libs are in the same situation with Abbott: don’t want to knife him because they are leading in the polls, but know that should he win office for them will be much much worse than Rudd ever was.]

    Confessions:
    Abbott (for all his faults) has taken the Coalition from oblivion to stratospheric poll leads
    Gillard (as deputy then leader) has taken ALP from stratospheric poll leads to oblivion

  49. Robot @ 4528

    A reasonable assessment,

    However,

    [So please, stop this fighting among ourselves. Yes, Gillard knifed Rudd, whether it is an impromptu decision or planned for weeks does not matter. The wisdom of that coup also does not matter. She is the Labor PM now, She is Labor.]

    The last sentence suggest that this is some sort of ALP blog -it might look an ALP circle jerk here at times but this is a blog open to all comers. Sentiments like the sentence above can go on that blog on the ALP website.

  50. [they left a foot however – for occasional mouth insertion.]

    Abbott was BORN with a silver foot in his mouth.

    Remember this one? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvYzLIywCiA

    How about this one? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABtlI2Wk3Ws

    Not forgetting THIS one. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUdPabnXUNA

    Or this one. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/abbott-should-try-earmuffs-for-a-day-20100801-111f8.html

    Quick summary here. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eACa-oSCEqU

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