The final Morgan face-to-face poll for the year is a surprisingly good one for Labor, producing a set of primary vote figures that scans out to 50-50 on two-party preferred if minor party and independent preferences are allocated in the same proportions as per the 2010 election result (the method used by all pollsters other than Morgan, with good reason). Labor’s primary vote is unchanged on the previous poll at 36.5 per cent, but the Coalition is well down from 46.5 per cent to 43 per cent, with the Greens up three points to 13 per cent. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends, from a combined sample of 1950.
Morgan’s headline two-party figure of 53.5-46.5, which is obtained by asking minor party and independent supporters to whom they would direct their preference, is quite a bit less impressive for Labor, and underscores a very odd feature of Morgan’s face-to-face polling this year: their respondent-allocated preferences have been splitting about 50-50 between Labor and the Coalition. Not only is this entirely unlike any election result in recent history, it also flatly contradicts the other pollster which publishes a respondent-allocated two-party result: Nielsen, which has given Labor a mid-60s share of minor party and independent preferences in each of its last five monthly polls, consistent with what election results would lead us to expect.
For this reason, Morgan’s 50-50 result is obviously a more meaningful extrapolation from its primary vote figure. However, this brings us to Morgan’s other problem: that those primary vote figures appear to be consistently biased to Labor. Labor’s 36.5 per cent in both the past two polls compares with 29 per cent from the most recent Nielsen, 31 per cent from Newspoll and 35 per cent from Essential Research (which tends to have Labor higher and the Greens lower than the phone pollsters – the limited evidence available suggests it is Essential which is more accurate).
Finally, the Poll Bludger will be going into hibernation from Christmas Day until January 8 inclusive, which is to say the site will still be accessible but comments will be closed. Thanks to all (well, almost all) who have contributed throughout the year, and I look forward to hearing from you again in a fortnight or so.
Indeed, if you could ever think that saving the lives of quite possibly genuine and vulnerable refugees is a political agenda, then perhaps you really are supporting the right party for you.
[I never suggested they were being sent back to their country of origin and if they were going to a country of final settlement I wouldn’t have a problem with the policy. However we have a legal and moral obligation to accept genuine refugees and not sacrifice then to satisfy some political agenda.]
Think of it this way: the successful refugees are killing the unsuccessful ones.
This latest lot weren’t downtrodden in despair. They flew from Tehran to Dubai. Hopped over to Jakarta and then a quick ride in a bus to the port of embarkation.
They did this because they could afford to and because they couldn’t get visas to fly here the normal way, through an airport. They were forced to take boats because that is the only practical way for them to present themselves at a border checkpoint, to wit: Xmas Island.
Many had relatives here, who have been vociferous on their behalf and who have sent them money.
Australia is a choice for them, a lifestyle choice, and as this catches on it’ll get worse, with more and more people drowning.
Is that what you want?
I could and oh run the dutch bureau,
FROM here with tne help of boewar
[I could and oh run the dutch bureau,
FROM here with tne help of boewar]
My say, the letter of Offer is on its way. You will be our Iron Lady to whip them recalcitrant Europeans in shape, especially them Germans. They think they own Europe.
The conservative media (tautology) spinning like a top for the Coalition. It’s obvious they can’t be any good if they need THIS much propping up.
My thoughts are with the many people who sit waiting in malaysia for a better life,some up to 9 years
And keeping their family safe
One thing I have learned over months is what BB just explained
My thoughts are with the many people who sit waiting in malaysia for a better life,some up to 9 years
And keeping their family safe
One thing I have learned over months is what BB just explained
Well bugger me – 50/50. Who would have thought?
Of course none of us believe it, but it’s a good change from the rubbish Nielsen keeps dishing up. And there are other good things as well. Tone doesn’t seem to be having all his own way on the AS issue any more and things seem to have moved on very quickly following the doom and gloom the MSM invented after the ALP conference. All in all, a much better vibe going into Christmas.
And on that note may I wish all my fellow PBs all the very best for the festive season and a safe and happy New Year. Y’all come back in 2012, ya hear?
an example of ignorant populsim from Barnaby Joyce
http://us4.campaign-archive2.com/?u=ff2ebaedf0d3569f441cfef14&id=28b217942b
Kersebleptes,
[Once again, a Liberal supporter tries to spread misinformation, as the obscuring of reality is the only hope his side ever has.]
[Stop the Liberal lies!]
They can’t help it. It is indelibly imprinted in their DNA.
Telling untruths for them is as easy as breathing. It sustains their very being, their very existence.
Their lives would be worthless if they were forced to tell the truth let alone do it voluntarily.
They get most enjoyment out of spreading untruths from fellow Liberal travelers.
David that kind of simplistic shortsighted moralistic guff is bad enough when it comes from the greens coming form a lib it is simply absurd.
‘some political agenda’ tries to denigrate the govt and tar them with the same brush of moron tony applies. That th labor policy solution works must really really frighten libs whose legal and moral obligation seems to me to understood as vilifying refugees and turning their boats around to try and drown them. At least the greens only accept that drowning is a good outcome on the in bound journey, having a second go at drowning them seems a little immoral even for libs.
[Stop the Liberal lies!]
It must be galling for those Liberals who know in their hearts (and heads) that Abbott has no concern for AS or CC or the daily struggles of ordinary Australians. I would have more respect for these Liberals if they spoke honestly about their concerns and rejected the likes of Abbott. Instead they try to feign concern about JG and her stance on certain matters in the hope of counterbalancing the issue so that Abbott is seen as no worse than the his opponent. That is cheap and shallow and quite simply dishonest.
BB it’s disingenious to ask me “is that what I want?”. It’s a question that needs to be asked of the people who undertake the journey and take the risk.
scorpio,
It’s the “surgical appliance” that holds all their bits in!
[BB it’s disingenious to ask me “is that what I want?”. It’s a question that needs to be asked of the people who undertake the journey and take the risk.]
DWH – implicit in that comment is that it is the refugees’ decision, as if we here have no say in it at all. If they “undertake the journey” who are we to make any comment on their decision. That’s crazy.
It is not the way the world works.
Kesebleptes and Scorpio,
Your observations on the Liberals and their tenuous grip on truthfulness: Well said!
Honesty is a relative thing. As I have said here a number of times the only PM who I believe took a moral position on the AS issue in the last 10 years was a Labor PM and the only reason the current government changed that position was because the political heat trumped the moral stance. As I said honesty is a relative thing.
BB we as a nation with a moral heart made our decision when we signed the Refugee Convention. It was the proper thing to do and we should honour the committment.
[Boerwar being an old Dutch hand, we are thinking of opening our newest division in Old Amsterdam:]
Mr Finns, Mr Boerwar,
Most interested in the Old Amsterdam Dutch position. Not familiar with this variation, but sounds interesting.
But to matters concrete: In order to fulfill the role, what type of kit would be required?
Would a couple of galleons do?
[BB it’s disingenious to ask me “is that what I want?”. It’s a question that needs to be asked of the people who undertake the journey and take the risk.]
For God’s sake, people are dying in their hundreds – 200 this time and hundreds more throughout the year, according to reports. They are not the downtrodden, poverty-stricken types so beloved of the bleeding hearts anymore.
The downtrodden poverty-stricken refugees are in Malaysia, 90,000 of them. They can’t afford to catch a boat.
One of the XI wreck survivors the other day was demanding that the government fund her entire family to come here, now that she was here. Relatives of the people in the latest disaster were actually blaming the Australian government for causing :”unnecessary grief” by getting the survivor numbers wrong. They’re not even here and we’re responsible for them!
They self-select, it’s their business really. Gillard seeks to protect them from themselves. It is not their choice alone that determines whether they come here.
They are middle class, well-heeled, self-selected economic immigrants with cashed up relatives here who flew on regular airlines to the ports from which they left. Many have admitted as such themselves.
[TheTruthHurts
Posted Wednesday, 19 October 2011 at 11:40 pm |
The question on everyones lips is: Will Gillard make it to Christmas?]
And the answer on everyone’s lips is …?
George (from previous thread) :
I’ve been three four times in the past couple of weeks – including mid-Friday afternoon and Saturday. Every time somebody has said to me, “You’re going to Chadstone? You’re brave/mad.” But as you said, it’s been no problem. The parking near David Jones (with the green lights that indicate free parking spots) always seem to have plenty of available spots, but parking elsewhere is tougher.
However… the roads in general are terrible. Punt, Chapel, Church, Victoria, Bridge, Burke – I know they’re wall-to-wall most of the day. People are shopping – or they’re doing something anyway.
I noticed something else. Prices on a lot of items are actually coming down the closer you get to Christmas. I’ve noticed it with household appliances particularly.
What’s most interesting from the Morgan Poll is the question regarding who people think is going to win the election. Since August the figures have run like this re percentage of respondents thinking the ALP will win:
Aug 24%, Sept 26%, Oct 27%, Nov 32%, Dec 37%.
The betting markets currently have the ALP priced at a 32% chance.
A one in three chance, based on all the information we have at the present, is a fair estimation. It’s no better than that, but it’s certainly not worse.
If I don’t get an opportunity before the site shuts down for its Christmas torpor, I want to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and a very happy and healthy 2012.
A special mention to William for running the site, and continually providing excellent snippets of interest from the political media.
Scringler
[Boerwar, Finns,
At the risk of intruding into a boardroom discussion, I have to say I have been following the progression of your various enterprises. Most impressed! If I may be so bold: All branches appear to be firmly in hand. Do you intend to list?
You’re on a dead-set winner here! Misery is the new black.]
We’re working on an IPO based around an improved Macquarie Bank management fee model. Basically it will work like this.
(1) We restructure Finns,Boerwar, Fukushima & Co for an IPO. Naturally, Finns and yrs truly get a fat break fee if the whole thing goes pearshaped. We put in a little borrowed credit which ensures that all other debt is subordinated. We put in a little clause that mandates our bankruptcy firm takes care of the wreckage when it comes. We structure in fat management fees which basically take out any profits from the restructured entity. We structure in performance bonuses for the entirely separate management entity which we wholly own. We structure in enough voting options to ensure that we never lose control of anything. If push comes to shove and the options are worth exercising, well, we do that as well.
(2) We do an IPO, but sell the book through our separate marketing entity. Naturally, the trailing commissions ensure that we get anything passing through. Naturally we pay a reputable ratings agency to give us a triple AAA rating, we pay a reputable accounting firm to run through the books with our heroic assumptions on hand, and we pay some market commentators to say nice things about the IPO. (This does represent a bit of cash flow out but we wind these costs back into company costs, after the listing, as assets. They therefore feed into the company’s balance sheets as profits ebitda and therefore enhance our management bonuses.
(3) Naturally, we make a stag killing out of the listing because of the options we get to exercise.
(4) Naturally, the shares tank when the punters realize what has been done to them, again. But not until after we have sold all our holdings.
(5) At an appropriate, seemly, time, we bankrupt the listed entity by calling in our paper, exercising our options, and insisting on our performance bonuses by the due date. Naturally the debts are structured so that subordinate debtors lose everything, sharedholders are left with nothing, the ATO does not get a brass razoo, and the workers lose all their entitlements. Life can be so freakin’ tough.
(5) You might have noticed that it is risk-free, that we will have transferred a whole lot of capital from punters to ourselves, and that we still have what we started with, which is our wonderful little company. Plus, the woodies will still be paying trailing commissions.
This project is completely consistent with our company vision statement of ‘Greed is good with a heart of gold and Inner Growth throught the Suffering of Others’.
BTW, we can get you into the action for a small consideration, if you are interested. We are doing a Special Offer for Bludgers. Our Swiss Bank and Tax Avoidance Islands Division will take care of any details. But I advise you to hurry because there are only limited pre-listing share options available to our special clients.
Sandi Logan
@SandiHLogan Canberra
National Communications Manager at Dept Immigration and Citizenship, Canberra
http://www.newsroom.immi.gov.au
[SandiHLogan Sandi Logan
We post enormous amount of information on our site immi.gov.au yet I detect reluctance of some journos to do the hard yards & read!
7 minutes ago
SandiHLogan Sandi Logan
Same Oz journo asked me how much I got paid, so I referred him to apsjobs.gov.au/SESSearchResul… as an indication. Reckon he’s applying for a job now
10 minutes ago
SandiHLogan Sandi Logan
Interested to see how TheOz uses lengthy briefing/research we gave their journo y’day/2day about asylum seekers/visas. #WeCanButLiveInHope
11 minutes ago]
Finns
I have a Dutch cuz in Amsterdam. Real estate agent, as it turns out. I have run your idea past him and he reckons it stirs his piratical juices. He reckons that Dutch house prices have gone off the boil by around 15% and he is looking for some growth opportunities.
He wants to know when can we start and where are the clients who need our help.
[We post enormous amount of information on our site immi.gov.au yet I detect reluctance of some journos to do the hard yards & read!]
If Sandi Logan is referring specifically to the OO, then it shouldn’t be so surprising. The OO is a propaganda rather than a news outlet.
[percentage of respondents thinking the ALP will win: Aug 24%, Sept 26%, Oct 27%, Nov 32%, Dec 37%.]
Merry Christmas Mr. Aristole.
They are (together with their already arrived and accepted families) in the business of forcing the Australian Government to accept admittance to their extended families and friends. Most of these people are forcing their way into our country, not because they fear for their lives but because they seek a better life.
DavidWH, yes we signed the refugee convention but a long time ago and the world has changed long since. It is time we got to work and changed our commitment to fit with the times, where our Government can refuse to admit economic immigrants coming here by any means. As it is at the moment, our Government is hamstrung by judicial procedures and appeals against deporting those whose claims are denied at great cost to our national budget. Once they get their foot in the back door at XI they’re home and hosed, and should the Government be slow in processing their claims, they have the bloody hide to protest and burn down the facilities – not the best way to make friends and influence people.
So, we do need a regional solution where claims are processed offshore and we, and our government, are able to set a sustainable intake of refugees/migrants whom we can welcome.
[TheTruthHurts
Posted Wednesday, 19 October 2011 at 11:40 pm |
The question on everyones lips is: Will Gillard make it to Christmas?
And the answer on everyone’s lips is …?]
Foro, thanks for remembering that post. The answer is “Aye, she did…and with 50/50 to boot!!”
Hooray, hooray!!!
I will be looking here tomorrow but can I take this opportunity to wish all posters on PB a safe and happy break. To William Bowe, many thanks for providing a site that is stimulating, challenging, humbling (eg “grow a brain”) forgiving, unforgiving, esoteric, inclusive and dedicated to the things that interest people who are genuinely passionate about the way we are governed and the system that promotes it.
Poll Bludger is my first port of call on the web every day. To me, it is without peer. Some of the contributions are simply stunning pieces of writing. Thank you to all.
The convention which we have signed does seem to imply that we should take in refugees who arrive in our territories.
However, it was perhaps not written or signed with the current context in mind.
It is only ideology and not ethics, or common humanity, which lead people to advocate slavish adherence to a piece of legislation when lives are being lost in such numbers.
Such a law can be changed with careful constructive working through of the issues but of course the lives can not be regained.
The same commentators often also blame the refugees for the decision to board such boats. I am not sure that many refugees are in the right circumstances to make fully informed decisions and many are children anyway.
Does the Australian government have no responsibility to help provide a safe and fair environment in which refugees can make such decisions?
It seems to me that such commentators would also say that US gun deaths are nothing to do with its gun laws but are totally due to individual decisions of people with guns.
[He wants to know when can we start and where are the clients who need our help.]
BW, we start with David Cameron, then Nick Sarkozy then Angie Merkel.
Angie will be a piece of cake, she is a sucker for the Stones: Angie. All i have to do is to croon Angie the way old Silvio used to do at the Bunga Bunga.
Boerwar
(6) After bankrupting the business, you should be able to get a gig with Private Equity who will buy the shell, give management a free 20% carry to incentivise them to perform (no matter how nefarious or incompetent they were in the previous incarnation). They will IPO the business in a few years and the whole cycle starts again…
Aguirre
[I’ve been three four times in the past couple of weeks – including mid-Friday afternoon and Saturday. Every time somebody has said to me, “You’re going to Chadstone? You’re brave/mad.” But as you said, it’s been no problem]
Similar story in Sydney – Westfields Bondi and Eastgarden have both been fine last few days.
Which is just as well – I still have 11 gifts to go and tremendous ennui…
I’m liking what the ALP is doing on AS negotiations. The message seems to be getting out that the government is – and has all along been – willing to negotiate. But the message from Abbott (the best he can do really considering the way he’s boxed himself in) is: “I’m willing to negotiate, but a big No to anything except Nauru.”
No matter what way you scrub that up, it’s obvious the ALP are being flexible and Abbott isn’t.
Now you can go ahead, as some in the media are trying, to blame both parties for not negotiating. But you can only quote or report Abbott if you’re going that way, because he’s the only one saying things like that.
You can try asking Bowen why he won’t submit a written proposal to Abbott as he requested; but it leads straight back to Abbott refusing repeated requests to enter negotiations previously. You can’t even interview Abbott without facing up to that – its a crucial part of the narrative. Without it, he can only talk about what’s coming up, not how we got to this situation.
So, when Abbott goes, “I’m willing to negotiate,” all the ALP has to do is say, “great, finally, bring it on.” Which they’re doing. He has to switch to, “weeeelll… no Nauru, I’ll only talk with Gillard, etc”. Even the addle-pated would be able to see where the blame lies, no matter how it’s reported.
Laocoon
[(6) After bankrupting the business, you should be able to get a gig with Private Equity who will buy the shell, give management a free 20% carry to incentivise them to perform (no matter how nefarious or incompetent they were in the previous incarnation). They will IPO the business in a few years and the whole cycle starts again…]
Never let it be said that F,B,F&Co is unwilling to learn from others. There is honour amongst thieves after all. A parcel of options for the next IPO is on its way to you as a reward for your wonderful initiative. All we need are your bank details.
A happy and safe Xmas to all PBers…..Thanks to all for a very stimulating source of political and other information/debate…best Blog on the WWW for mine… 🙂
Thanks to William for being such a tolerant moderator…
Special mention to OzPolTragic and Bushfire Bill…. not meant as a reflection on other posters…but they do stand out in my mind.
Finally, Thanks to Julia for showing great determination…skill…humanity & grace in what must be the most difficult job in Australia at the moment.
Nice to see the Govt bounce back from the period of public squabbling during the National Conference which I’m certain people didn’t appreciate watching.
Definitely within reach now with the best part of 2 years to settle down and consolidate.
I have a feeling Abbott and the Greens will lose support over their unwillingness to negotiate over this A/S issue.
Oh and wish you all a safe and relaxed holiday period 🙂
Finns
[BW, we start with David Cameron, then Nick Sarkozy then Angie Merkel.]
So, we start with the guys who are under some sort of shared delusion that they are running the shop. What are we selling them?
Re Morgan:
Outliers are outliers. But when you start considering 43-57 as an outlier at one end and 50-50 as an outlier at the other, something’s afoot. It wasn’t that long ago that 43-57 was a mid-point (we were a little chuffed and slightly sceptical with a 46-54) and 50-50 looked impossible.
I don’t have a problem with getting more middle class folk into Australia: salt of the earth, bastion of stability, and the sine qua non of functioning democracies everywhere.
After all, they are an endangered class coz the banks have shrunk them everywhere else in the western world.
Boerwar
[All we need are your bank details]
I didnt realise that F,B,F&Co had a Nigerian branch as well; what a multinational enterprise – an ornament to Australian business 😀
A
I reckon that if you whack them all in, and shake them all around, it is around 54/46 2PP.
B
[A
I reckon that if you whack them all in, and shake them all around, it is around 54/46 2PP.]
Agreed. Gee 52/48 would be nice by July 2012.
Laocoon
Some unkind classicists have referred to us as a nest of vipers but where would we be without Laocoon challenges?
Which reminds me, about your bank details, trust me: rivers of gold will flow your way.
[BTW, we can get you into the action for a small consideration,]
Mr Boerwar: Let’s talk turkey, here. As a business model, it boxes all tickets of which I am aware. Have instructed my people to touch your people for details of contracts and flow of proceeds.
With the Dutch contract, would a few well-trained musketeers help?
Boerwar
[rivers of gold will flow your way]
A modern day Midas…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pactolus
William why not put the 50/50 figure, you know the more reliable one, in your headline as well. A great christmas gift for us Laborites lol
and BB you have really enlightened me about the boat people in the last week. if only the government were as clear in their explanations
I think the bias in the morgan face to face is against the government of the day, when it is seen as unpopular. not a labor thing