Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

The final Morgan face-to-face poll for the year is a surprisingly good one for Labor, producing a set of primary vote figures that scans out to 50-50 on two-party preferred if minor party and independent preferences are allocated in the same proportions as per the 2010 election result (the method used by all pollsters other than Morgan, with good reason). Labor’s primary vote is unchanged on the previous poll at 36.5 per cent, but the Coalition is well down from 46.5 per cent to 43 per cent, with the Greens up three points to 13 per cent. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends, from a combined sample of 1950.

Morgan’s headline two-party figure of 53.5-46.5, which is obtained by asking minor party and independent supporters to whom they would direct their preference, is quite a bit less impressive for Labor, and underscores a very odd feature of Morgan’s face-to-face polling this year: their respondent-allocated preferences have been splitting about 50-50 between Labor and the Coalition. Not only is this entirely unlike any election result in recent history, it also flatly contradicts the other pollster which publishes a respondent-allocated two-party result: Nielsen, which has given Labor a mid-60s share of minor party and independent preferences in each of its last five monthly polls, consistent with what election results would lead us to expect.

For this reason, Morgan’s 50-50 result is obviously a more meaningful extrapolation from its primary vote figure. However, this brings us to Morgan’s other problem: that those primary vote figures appear to be consistently biased to Labor. Labor’s 36.5 per cent in both the past two polls compares with 29 per cent from the most recent Nielsen, 31 per cent from Newspoll and 35 per cent from Essential Research (which tends to have Labor higher and the Greens lower than the phone pollsters – the limited evidence available suggests it is Essential which is more accurate).

Finally, the Poll Bludger will be going into hibernation from Christmas Day until January 8 inclusive, which is to say the site will still be accessible but comments will be closed. Thanks to all (well, almost all) who have contributed throughout the year, and I look forward to hearing from you again in a fortnight or so.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,200 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Hey Frank! Have you re-friended me on Facebook?

    I missed the great links you keep putting up!

    You Know I really, truly hate KR, don’t you! 😉

    Have a great X-mas anyway.

  2. Actually I’m already looking forward to the first post in the new year – whoever it’s from. Even Thomas Paine (well, maybe not Thomas Paine).

  3. Yeah, wot? I’m here.

    [Use the good old 2 4 6 8 cake
    2 eggs
    4 oz butter
    6 oz sugar
    8 oz SR Flour
    Milk as needed (Add vanilla essence to milk)]

    That’ll do me, Puff. I do, ahem, a bit of baking. Bread mostly. With my own personal fingers. No bread machines involved. Sour dough, laced with carraway seed.

    The dogs love my bread. Learned this lesson the hard way. Crafted a very fine loaf, left it on the wire trivet thingo to cool … got talking or fell asleep.

    Overnight, they scoffed the lot. Puff, life is not fair.

  4. Gus,
    that’s hours away. I won’t be able to keep awake.
    My daughter in Perth sent me flowers today, some beautiful orchids.

  5. I have not baked bread by hand i admire people who can. I am tempted to do a TAFE Artisan Bread Making course they run here. They also have a cheese making course. It runs over about four days and you end up with your own cheese.

    Dogs do what dogs can. 😆

  6. Merry Christmas to all(or most)
    Thanks William…you deserve the Nobel prize for something
    See you all when the Good Ship Titanic resumes it’s cruise with Cap’T Julia back on the Bridge

  7. [See you all when the Good Ship Titanic resumes it’s cruise with Cap’T Julia back on the Bridge]

    She’s managed to dodge all the icebergs so far. We’ll see what happens in 2012. 😆

  8. Still live are we?
    I thought it was last night. 😀

    Mod Lib in providing William with that little graph for us of our political spectrum – well done!

    Anyway to those speculating about why most PB respondents to that ideology quiz are ‘below the line’ and to the left, I would remind us all of the fact that it is a US devised quiz, with a bell-curve starting point well to the upper right of the average Aussie political thinker. (I’d like to think)

  9. Best wishes again for the solstice season to all free thinking independent minded PBers – and also to you William, as head free thinking independent minded person.

  10. Puff, to produce a well-crafted loaf of bread is a special joy. The flour, the yeast, the kneading, the time … it’s a process that requires patience, thought, and determination.

    Bit like Government, really.

    Good night all Poll Bludgers.

    Off to play Civ IV now … and take over the world.

  11. Puff TMD
    Thanks, and to you and yours.

    May favourable ethereal wisps of gentle weather caress us all in the interim until we talk again.

  12. Just a thought

    Dear Prime Minister

    Just a quick note to thank you for your efforts this year. The body of work that both your Govt. and yourself have accomplished is, quite simply, humbling. The vicious debates, outright lies, media manipulation of the simple minded, that have infected the political process this year give pause to the sanity of any person of compassion.

    You have come through this with an aplomb that gives both heart and strength to those who aspire to the ideals of the purity and courage, yet understand, and value, the pragmatism of societal reality.

    That the forces aligned against you will be renewing their efforts in the new year is a given. They will have the msm with them. What they wont have is 6/7 million people whom believe in you.

    We’ll beat them.

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