Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

The final Morgan face-to-face poll for the year is a surprisingly good one for Labor, producing a set of primary vote figures that scans out to 50-50 on two-party preferred if minor party and independent preferences are allocated in the same proportions as per the 2010 election result (the method used by all pollsters other than Morgan, with good reason). Labor’s primary vote is unchanged on the previous poll at 36.5 per cent, but the Coalition is well down from 46.5 per cent to 43 per cent, with the Greens up three points to 13 per cent. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends, from a combined sample of 1950.

Morgan’s headline two-party figure of 53.5-46.5, which is obtained by asking minor party and independent supporters to whom they would direct their preference, is quite a bit less impressive for Labor, and underscores a very odd feature of Morgan’s face-to-face polling this year: their respondent-allocated preferences have been splitting about 50-50 between Labor and the Coalition. Not only is this entirely unlike any election result in recent history, it also flatly contradicts the other pollster which publishes a respondent-allocated two-party result: Nielsen, which has given Labor a mid-60s share of minor party and independent preferences in each of its last five monthly polls, consistent with what election results would lead us to expect.

For this reason, Morgan’s 50-50 result is obviously a more meaningful extrapolation from its primary vote figure. However, this brings us to Morgan’s other problem: that those primary vote figures appear to be consistently biased to Labor. Labor’s 36.5 per cent in both the past two polls compares with 29 per cent from the most recent Nielsen, 31 per cent from Newspoll and 35 per cent from Essential Research (which tends to have Labor higher and the Greens lower than the phone pollsters – the limited evidence available suggests it is Essential which is more accurate).

Finally, the Poll Bludger will be going into hibernation from Christmas Day until January 8 inclusive, which is to say the site will still be accessible but comments will be closed. Thanks to all (well, almost all) who have contributed throughout the year, and I look forward to hearing from you again in a fortnight or so.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,200 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Evening all.

    Ducking in and out so don’t know who’s around, but if victoria’s around, I’d love to know her views on why my attempted semifreddo failed! I did the whole custard making thing, and the separated eggs thing, but when it came to setting, I got two colours through the setting, and it’s wobbly on top and set at the bottom! Help!

    May not be back tonight before the close down, so if so, then merry xmas all, and joy to everyone for the holiday season.

  2. Rupert Murdoch as King Lear

    Personally i reckon that’d be extremely offensive to King Lear. Murdoch comes across as far more like Goneril or Regan, or perhaps even Edmund, to me. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  3. Oh, and thanks to Mod Lib for plotting our compass scores. How unsurprisement that we all come out in the same quadrant and are remarkably similar! Things that unite us etc etc…

  4. [Wow, no one is above the line.]

    Cheers, Puff –

    also worth pointing out, the line of best fit (is it r-squared?) would probably be pretty close to 45 degrees – ie as one value rises, so does the other.

  5. Puff

    [Gaffhook
    You have a norty mind. He wouldnโ€™t, would he?]

    :mrgreen: is already on record as saying there is only one of the ten he has not broken and that’s the murder one. ๐Ÿ˜†

  6. Fess,
    Set a jelly with tinned fruit and any old cake, and with some sherry or port, put the semiwhatsit over it, cover the lot with whipped cream, and top with shaved chocolate.

    There you have the world’s best trifle.

  7. Fess,
    I bet it will be. I will do a Puffy (do not eat and drive) Trifle. It takes two days to make, as everything is home cooked prior to construction, except for the Cottees Port Wine jelly.

    Cottees Port Wine Jelly with extra port and more extra port.
    Home grown and cooked peaches or apricots.
    Butter cake
    Full cream milk custard with eggs, Fosters custard powder and a cinnamon stick. No sugar
    Whipped cream, no sugar.
    Shaved 70% coca chocolate, mint leaves.

  8. No shortcuts with bought cake allowed.
    Use the good old 2 4 6 8 cake
    2 eggs
    4 oz butter
    6 oz sugar
    8 oz SR Flour
    Milk as needed (Add vanilla essence to milk)

  9. Yes William a great big thanks to you, hopefully you and Frank C are pouring your hard earned into Simon Mead’s ‘Obama’ fund, personally I’ll wait until the clowns that lost the last election aren’t pulling the strings.

    Love and a wonderful Christmas to all, especially fonzie, glen and adam (the departed one). Oh and you too Gus … world wouldn’t be the same without you. Diog hope you are reading an accounting manual over christmas so audit reports don’t confuse you in quite the same depth as they did this year. JV be good. Frank I am not a liberal plant.

    A very very labor 2012 to us all. After all for more than 100 years Labor has been putting in what is good into the cake that is Australia.

    Comrades, gods bless you all.

  10. Night all

    Wish you all- and especially Bilbo – the very best Xmas and New Years’

    Off to make the Xmas cake: 600g Lindt 70% cooking chocolate, 750ml double cream, 500g ricotta, 200g cocoa, 300g almond meal, 10 eggs and the rest . . . flour only goes in to keep the fat and carbs from spontaneously combusting. . .

    So if arteries haven’t exploded, see you all next year. This is one funky community.

    Love!

  11. WWP:

    [Frank I am not a liberal plant.]

    Wellstuffing the most basic bit of info that Ellenbrook is no lionger part of Swan Hills suggests otherwise ๐Ÿ™‚

    Oh and Rita said at her Christmas Drinks that the Rail Line is still on the ALP Radar.

    Next…..

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