The final Morgan face-to-face poll for the year is a surprisingly good one for Labor, producing a set of primary vote figures that scans out to 50-50 on two-party preferred if minor party and independent preferences are allocated in the same proportions as per the 2010 election result (the method used by all pollsters other than Morgan, with good reason). Labor’s primary vote is unchanged on the previous poll at 36.5 per cent, but the Coalition is well down from 46.5 per cent to 43 per cent, with the Greens up three points to 13 per cent. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends, from a combined sample of 1950.
Morgan’s headline two-party figure of 53.5-46.5, which is obtained by asking minor party and independent supporters to whom they would direct their preference, is quite a bit less impressive for Labor, and underscores a very odd feature of Morgan’s face-to-face polling this year: their respondent-allocated preferences have been splitting about 50-50 between Labor and the Coalition. Not only is this entirely unlike any election result in recent history, it also flatly contradicts the other pollster which publishes a respondent-allocated two-party result: Nielsen, which has given Labor a mid-60s share of minor party and independent preferences in each of its last five monthly polls, consistent with what election results would lead us to expect.
For this reason, Morgan’s 50-50 result is obviously a more meaningful extrapolation from its primary vote figure. However, this brings us to Morgan’s other problem: that those primary vote figures appear to be consistently biased to Labor. Labor’s 36.5 per cent in both the past two polls compares with 29 per cent from the most recent Nielsen, 31 per cent from Newspoll and 35 per cent from Essential Research (which tends to have Labor higher and the Greens lower than the phone pollsters the limited evidence available suggests it is Essential which is more accurate).
Finally, the Poll Bludger will be going into hibernation from Christmas Day until January 8 inclusive, which is to say the site will still be accessible but comments will be closed. Thanks to all (well, almost all) who have contributed throughout the year, and I look forward to hearing from you again in a fortnight or so.
Evening all.
Ducking in and out so don’t know who’s around, but if victoria’s around, I’d love to know her views on why my attempted semifreddo failed! I did the whole custard making thing, and the separated eggs thing, but when it came to setting, I got two colours through the setting, and it’s wobbly on top and set at the bottom! Help!
May not be back tonight before the close down, so if so, then merry xmas all, and joy to everyone for the holiday season.
Gaffhook
You have a norty mind. He wouldn’t, would he?
[Wow, no one is above the line.]
Now, where would Cori Bernardi, Erica Betz, Peter Reith, Sophie M be?
Rupert Murdoch as King Lear
Personally i reckon that’d be extremely offensive to King Lear. Murdoch comes across as far more like Goneril or Regan, or perhaps even Edmund, to me. 😉
Oh, and thanks to Mod Lib for plotting our compass scores. How unsurprisement that we all come out in the same quadrant and are remarkably similar! Things that unite us etc etc…
didn’t rummel do that compass thingy?
[Wow, no one is above the line.]
Cheers, Puff –
also worth pointing out, the line of best fit (is it r-squared?) would probably be pretty close to 45 degrees – ie as one value rises, so does the other.
And thanx & acknowledgement to William for the best political blog in Australia!
*yeah, I’ve had too much sparkling shiraz*
fess
You can never have too much sparkling shiraz!
Puff
[Gaffhook
You have a norty mind. He wouldn’t, would he?]
is already on record as saying there is only one of the ten he has not broken and that’s the murder one. 😆
[didn’t rummel do that compass thingy?]
Yep, he’s a full blown commie.
BK:
I love sparkling shiraz.
Fess,
Set a jelly with tinned fruit and any old cake, and with some sherry or port, put the semiwhatsit over it, cover the lot with whipped cream, and top with shaved chocolate.
There you have the world’s best trifle.
fes
moi aussi!!
Enjoy the rest of the night.
I’m stonkered and outta here!
Puffy:
When we have a national PB get-together (and I know we will), victoria and I will make you a semifreddo. It’s gorgeous!
Good night BK! I must be off too.
See you’se all in the new year.
A merry Christmas and a happy new year to all. Thanks William for a great site. See ya all next year safe and well.
Fess,
I bet it will be. I will do a Puffy (do not eat and drive) Trifle. It takes two days to make, as everything is home cooked prior to construction, except for the Cottees Port Wine jelly.
Cottees Port Wine Jelly with extra port and more extra port.
Home grown and cooked peaches or apricots.
Butter cake
Full cream milk custard with eggs, Fosters custard powder and a cinnamon stick. No sugar
Whipped cream, no sugar.
Shaved 70% coca chocolate, mint leaves.
No shortcuts with bought cake allowed.
Use the good old 2 4 6 8 cake
2 eggs
4 oz butter
6 oz sugar
8 oz SR Flour
Milk as needed (Add vanilla essence to milk)
Night all, the drawbridge will be pulled up soon.
TLBD
No Leveson tonight. sHonour earned his Chrissy pudding. 😆
Four posts in a row means I am officially talking to myself.
Make that six.
Yes William a great big thanks to you, hopefully you and Frank C are pouring your hard earned into Simon Mead’s ‘Obama’ fund, personally I’ll wait until the clowns that lost the last election aren’t pulling the strings.
Love and a wonderful Christmas to all, especially fonzie, glen and adam (the departed one). Oh and you too Gus … world wouldn’t be the same without you. Diog hope you are reading an accounting manual over christmas so audit reports don’t confuse you in quite the same depth as they did this year. JV be good. Frank I am not a liberal plant.
A very very labor 2012 to us all. After all for more than 100 years Labor has been putting in what is good into the cake that is Australia.
Comrades, gods bless you all.
puff
V specila merry xmas to u
🙂
and the rest of U’s as well
ps
bilbo
onya
😉
Sorry to end your run PTMD.
Night all, merry xmas to ya all see ya in Jan 🙂
WWP
Merry Xmas and A Happy Labor New Year.
See ya in Jan, Zoid.
Night all, see you in the New Year
A song to end on.
Long may you run Poll Bludger
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zapIW8f6kk
wwp
never surrender,never retreat
merry xmas
[Rollcall who is here ]
Scorpio & Jack the Corella still around.
Gus admit nothing, deny everything, make counter accusations.
WWP has popped in briefly.
Thanks, Puff,
I’ll follow your advice.
scorps
waiting for santa?
Mod Lib sent through this scatterpol
Ran it past a bloke I used to know called Karl. He reckoned ML had turned it upside down.
Happy Summer Solstice Season to all & have a great break from keeping Australia on track!
Gus
I want Santa to bring me a one way ticket to Nauru in the name of one T. Abbott.
rod
mod has ahem form
anyways those faux charts are nuttin compared to PB (and afrankview.net)
puff
damn damn damn
the perfect gift
🙁
Gus,
Tin Lids all asleep?
TELSTRA EMAIL SCAM- DONT REPLY TO BIGPOND SECURITY UPGRADE–ITS A SCAM- pls RT
Night all
Wish you all- and especially Bilbo – the very best Xmas and New Years’
Off to make the Xmas cake: 600g Lindt 70% cooking chocolate, 750ml double cream, 500g ricotta, 200g cocoa, 300g almond meal, 10 eggs and the rest . . . flour only goes in to keep the fat and carbs from spontaneously combusting. . .
So if arteries haven’t exploded, see you all next year. This is one funky community.
Love!
puff
marching orders issued
dad has work in a few hours
🙁
WWP:
[Frank I am not a liberal plant.]
Wellstuffing the most basic bit of info that Ellenbrook is no lionger part of Swan Hills suggests otherwise 🙂
Oh and Rita said at her Christmas Drinks that the Rail Line is still on the ALP Radar.
Next…..
‘nite, dyspnoeia, see you over the rainbow. damn that cake sounds good.
[gusface
Posted Saturday, December 24, 2011 at 11:13 pm | Permalink
TELSTRA EMAIL SCAM- DONT REPLY TO BIGPOND SECURITY UPGRADE–ITS A SCAM- pls RT
]
I get em all the time – I delete them.
‘nite gussy, see you at A Frank View.
gusface,
[scorps
waiting for santa? ]
You betcha! Aren’t you? 😉
frank
since u had a phonecall, no need to wish u merry xmas
but I will
😀